BludgerTrack: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition

After substantially narrowing last week, this week the two-party preferred poll aggregate gap all but disappears, while leaving the Coalition some breathing space on the seat projection.

It’s been a quieter week on the polling front in the wake of last week’s bonanza, with only the regular weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan added to the mix. The new additions do nothing to halt the momentum to Labor which emerged in the previous result, with shifts of 1.3% shift on the primary vote and 0.5% on two-party preferred. The latter gain is blunted by the fact that the Greens are down 1.2%, having failed of late to replicate a series of stronger results in early to mid-November. The two-party preferred measure is now being calculated with newly available preference flow results from the September 7 election, replacing modelled preference projections used previously. This hasn’t made much difference to the national result, but it’s helped eliminate an anomalous gain for the Liberals on the seat calculation in South Australia. The other change on the seat projection is an extra gain for Labor in New South Wales. It should be noted that the model continues to leave the Coalition well ahead of Labor despite the position of near-parity on two-party preferred, indicating the impact of “sophomore surge” effects on the BludgerTrack model in the seats Labor most needs to win. See the sidebar for full results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,516 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition”

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  1. ST – Mandela was no more a terrorist than the anti-nazi and resistance fighters in Europe in WW2. I don’t think his views were much different in later years – the difference was the Apartheid regime had been brought to its knees and was prepared to negotiate a democratic outcome rather than fight on.

  2. Wakefield,

    Killing innocent people to make a political point makes you a terrorist.

    It’s a little bit different from attacking an invading army.

    As I said though he was a terrorist when he went to prison but had changed into an honourable man after the jail stint.

  3. I’ll share what I thought was quite funny from a book I’m currently reading:

    He walked into a patch of rainforest, I stepped after him ..something invisible clawed at my cheek and hung on. I tried to pluck it off without ripping the skin only to be snared by the elbow.
    ‘Lawyer Vine,’ said Ken. ‘There’s a lot of it in here.’

  4. davidwh

    I like the lyrics you remembered,

    [Those were the days my friend
    I thought they’d never end]

    but

    [We’d live the life we choose
    We’d fight and never lose
    For we were young and sure to have our way]

    is more to the point.

    I had (have) two older sisters, and one “had to get married” in 1969.

    And even though my second-oldest sister succumbed to the marriage shite, I never did. I kept up the order; they didn’t.

    As I said, those lyrics radicalised me. Because, I also had three older brothers.

    And we, the girls, were treated so differently, it made me want to change things in my family.

    I’m happy to acknowledge my mother finally got recognition for her work over her 80-year lifetime, 40 days before she died, to be finally recognised as a half-owner of the property on which she raised us.

    That was an hallejuh moment for me, mum and my younger sister. A little sisterhood moment personally.

    As a bloke who has never had to fight for anything, assured as you were, and are, of a right to your parents hard work, you probably can’t appreciate it. But that was a super victory for acknowledgement of women’s work in our family.

  5. @Sean/2415

    I noticed you started using wikipedia as your primary source of information, soon as one of the liberal ministers sourced it….

  6. Yes, Sean, I’m familiar with the history of UwZ. It did carry out acts that could fairly be called terrorist, in the 1980s. But by that time Mandela had been in prison for 20 years and had nothing to do with UwZ. There were, and still are, two factions in the ANC. The Communists (SACP), with whom Mandela was aligned although not a Party member, were always opposed to terrorism. The Black nationalists, influenced in the 1970s by the PLO and other terrorist groups, favoured terrorism, and they had control of UwZ or at least acted in its name. I don’t believe anyone has shown that Mandela personally ever carried out, ordered or approved terrorist attacks – that is, attacks which had as their purpose the killing of civilians.

  7. Christ, Tisme is flogging himself as an historian now.

    Presumably Tisme is an historian in the same way that he’s an economist, an immigration expert, a foreign affairs afficionado, statistician, skilled in matters relating to indigenous reconciliation, and polling expert.

  8. AMAZING NEWS RE CARBON TAX…FROM THE USA
    _____________________________________
    IN AN ARTICLE FROM”THE AMERICAN CONSERVATIVE” A WRITER ARGUES THAT MAJOR US COMPANIES,NOTABLY IN THE ENERGY INDUSTRY ARE PREPARIKNG FOR A CARBON TAX
    ___________________

    He urges conservatives not to simply oppose this as it has already much support and the Republicans will find themselves isolated as public opinion becomes more alarmed over climate change and demanding government action

    This may come as a shock to Abbott and Co !

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/companies-and-conservatives-prepare-for-oncoming-carbon-taxes/

  9. I imagine Sean writes his own entries in Wikipedia and then quotes himself. Tony tried doing that too, but all he could manage was to drag his knuckles across the keyboard. Peta had to complete it for him.

  10. [Carey Moore
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 10:21 pm | PERMALINK
    confessions 2422

    …and a physicist specialising in the harmless effects of radiation]
    You can’t help commenting, can you.

    Take your own advice, and your advice to us. Stop commenting on the dickwit.

  11. Tisme, I’m not quite sure why you think pointing out that Labor has moved on while the Liberals haven’t helps your argument :P.

  12. Sean Tisme@2426


    zoidlord… while your on your history lesson you should check out who introduced the White Australia policy… it’s a doozy mate

    Its also a doozy that the Qld rednecks who vote tory want White Australia policy back! As did hanson.

    Like you regarding your attitude to Indonesians.

    Mendacious.

  13. I agree with Paul Keating.

    The obsessiveness with Australia’s identity at Gallipoli is such a sad indictment on us all. When you consider it was just a Keith Murdoch invention to keep up Aussie spirits (Keating didn’t say that, I did).

    But Keating was right, Australia’s identity was made in New Guinea.

    My child’s grandfather fought at Milne Bay, didn’t see Kokoda, but always felt that Australia won its place there.

    And I agree with Keating. Gallipoli was supreme British folly, and we have no more right to think Australia earned its badge of separation from Britain no more then what we let on the fields of Flanders.

    Geez Keating was special.

    Like Gillard, we were so lucky to have a renegade like Keating in our favour.

  14. carey moore

    I’m not unhappy with you.
    Just take your own advice.

    And stop pontificating to the rest of us.
    Then, maybe, you’d be a lot happier.

  15. [The New York Times may have noted your points on Mandela today]

    Yes, they rang me in the middle of the night to ask what they should say. They always forget about time differences.

  16. Kezza 2436

    Cannot agree New Guinea ,prefer Middle East Desert Rats.

    Family did middle east 9th Division, also Milne Bay,Finchhaven , two parachuted there without training

  17. Looking at the weather forecast for Adelaide in the next couple of days, why on Earth didn’t Michael Clarke enforce the follow on? Attack the English at the end of the day and then two days to bowl out the English, with little chance of them getting 399 runs to force Australia to bat again.

  18. @Psephos/2443

    Abe & Abbott have simular attributes, unfortunately, both are duds, requires kiss footing the Americans, and screwing it’s own citizens.

  19. [2406
    Sean Tisme

    Wakefield,

    Killing innocent people to make a political point makes you a terrorist.]

    By this reckoning, the apartheid regime was run by terrorists.

  20. Steve777@2446


    Looking at the weather forecast for Adelaide in the next couple of days, why on Earth didn’t Michael Clarke enforce the follow on? Attack the English at the end of the day and then two days to bowl out the English, with little chance of them getting 399 runs to force Australia to bat again.

    To give the bowlers a bit of a break ‘apparently’.

    3rd Test starts 3 days after the end of the current one.

    Lets hope the poms don’t score a draw somehow and that their own media are kicking them in the goolies.

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