It’s been a quieter week on the polling front in the wake of last week’s bonanza, with only the regular weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan added to the mix. The new additions do nothing to halt the momentum to Labor which emerged in the previous result, with shifts of 1.3% shift on the primary vote and 0.5% on two-party preferred. The latter gain is blunted by the fact that the Greens are down 1.2%, having failed of late to replicate a series of stronger results in early to mid-November. The two-party preferred measure is now being calculated with newly available preference flow results from the September 7 election, replacing modelled preference projections used previously. This hasn’t made much difference to the national result, but it’s helped eliminate an anomalous gain for the Liberals on the seat calculation in South Australia. The other change on the seat projection is an extra gain for Labor in New South Wales. It should be noted that the model continues to leave the Coalition well ahead of Labor despite the position of near-parity on two-party preferred, indicating the impact of “sophomore surge” effects on the BludgerTrack model in the seats Labor most needs to win. See the sidebar for full results.
Missed a bit but WTF asked
[Speaking of which, psephos, why are’t you on your honeymoon. Or are you like Julia Gillard and don’t believe in the institution of marriage?}
[psephos
* I don’t live in the ACT.
* I don’t believe in marriage.
* I particularly don’t believe in same-sex marriage.
* No-one would marry me anyway.]
Asterisk 1: That doesn’t matter. A West Australian ALP MP got married to his partner this day in the ACT.
Asterisk 2: So, like Julia Gillard, you don’t believe in the institution of marriage. Nor do I.
Asterisk 3: That’s not surprising given 2.
Asterisk 4: I like a sense of humour. Or diddums.
Making the rounds on Twitter
Carey Moore@2271
Actually, Pierre Curie was run over by a cart in Paris.
Knowing that odd piece of knowledge actually allowed me to win a prize on a radio contest back in the 1960s. 😀
The station? Why, 2GB!
It was not the same toxic organisation then as it is now.
I guess the question for Australia now becomes how many runs are enough?
AA:
You could make the same remark about the press gallery and the non-Murdoch media. Both played for songs by the coalition.
Puts PMJG Timor gaffe in perspective.
[About 100 protesters in East Timor have thrown rocks at the Australian embassy, with police responding with tear gas as a spying row intensifies.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/east-timorese-stone-australian-embassy-20131206-hv4ll.html#ixzz2mlqE9iPl
confessions
Influence can be negative or positive. Sometimes, the better you know people, the more you despise their belief/attitude. Makes it difficult when they’re “relies”.
[Actually, Pierre Curie was run over by a cart in Paris.]
Yep. Somebody else also pointed that out. I had always assumed he died of radiation-related illness too. Oh well, I learned something new today. 🙂
confessions@2294
I think you may be overlooking wife number one.
CTar1
[that wattle birds work at night, that is
Not a proven thing but just a personal observation. I’m careful with both.]
Yeah, my observations of maggies are personal as well.
I read in the Web of Life some 40 years-odd ago about a study of magpies and was ‘shocked’ to learn the subject of the study, a female maggie, was 35 years of age at the time, and still going strong!
To me, at that time, a bird’s life was precarious to say the least, and thought their lives were savage and short, or whatever the saying is.
I already knew that maggies hated my brothers: they were always taking potshots at them with slug guns. But they never bothered me – because I talked to them.
So, then I started taking more notice of them.
I now understand the prevalence of eccentric birdwatchers in Midsommer Murders. There’s so many of us. 😆
[Carey you are right, with how you referred to her a wonderful woman, especially for the times]
I am a big admirer of many women in the history of science, especially the ones who did it in the face of institutional sexism.
Curie, Meitner, Lovelace… just to name a few…
ruawake
Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 5:38 pm | PERMALINK
Madonna King gives her CM space over to an open letter.
Dear Minister Pyne, etc
I am amazed at that isn’t Madonna King usually so pro LNP?
[* I don’t believe in marriage.
* I particularly don’t believe in same-sex marriage.]
Ah, the old ‘believe in’. Bit like ‘I don’t “believe in” climate change’.
What the f*^# is there to believe in? You either like it, or accept it, or understand it – or you don’t.
It’s not a fairy tale. Or Santa Claus.
lizzie:
I couldn’t even tell you who Gerard’s daughter is, which is esp why I’m not buying the argument that it’s okay to mock Mundine because of his wife.
So I come back for an all out day, with some friends, and I still see idiot Sean in my country.
[I am amazed at that isn’t Madonna King usually so pro LNP?]
She was until her husband was boned as boss of the Courier Mail.
[The UK Government was on Friday night accused of hugely underestimating the number of households rendered uninsurable by repeated flooding after admitting that it had not taken into account the effects of climate change when allocating money to protect them.
The oversight was raised as thousands of people prepared to spend another night away from their homes after the worst tidal surge in more than 60 years.]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-weather-government-in-perfect-storm-over-climate-change-gaffe-as-floods-render-homes-uninsurable-8989643.html
[ruawake
Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 6:10 pm | PERMALINK
Puts PMJG Timor gaffe in perspective.]
That was a News Limited gaffe, not a diplomatic gaffe.
JG had done the right thing, in terms of protocol. She’d contacted the President of a Republic, not the PM.
It was the Julie Bishop lie about protocol that’s got her in all sorts of trouble now.
Julie Bishop didn’t then, and wouldn’t now, know if her arse was on fire. She’s protected by Murdoch.
But, seriously, it wouldn’t matter who the Coalition had nominated as FA Minister, they would still not be able to contain this mess.
@Lizzie/2318
Just wait till House pricing in the UK, which is now a concern for UK’ers.
paaptsef
Birds sometimes splay their feathers to catch the sun.
Greg Hunt plays the ostrich.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-07/labor-greens-join-forces-on-emissions-inquiry/5141872
Puff
I’m going to read your blog later. I’ve bookmarked it to give it the attention it deserves.
lizzie
Interesting story about insurance companies refusing to insure hundreds of thousands of houses and the political blowback consequent to the government’s mishandling of the situation.
Those Tories.
{ruawake
Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 6:25 pm | PERMALINK
I am amazed at that isn’t Madonna King usually so pro LNP?
She was until her husband was boned as boss of the Courier Mail}
Now I remember I forgot that, she used to do a show on local abc, which I stopped listening to as was so pro LNP, beats me how Paul Syvet survives there?
[Queensland Premier Campbell Newman has reportedly accused the ABC of undermining the “security and safety” of the new head of an anti-bikie team.]
What is with these constant attacks on the ABC by Liberal leaders? If any political leader has genuine cause to criticise the ABC it’s Julia Gillard for that appalling ‘at home’ show it aired.
I’d suggest that Newman and Abbott start displaying some leadership instead of trying to blame everyone else for their mistakes.
SBS just showing flags all around the world at half mast… before cutting to the Australian flag over Parliament House.
I hope the bureaucrat in Prime Minister and Cabinet who defied Abbott’s order to lower the flag to half mast is ashamed of himself.
Boerwar
“Tories” are convinced that they can control the weather, I suppose. It’s amusing that it is insurance companies who have led the push to acknowledge future damage and therefore climate change. No one calls insurance companies ‘loony lefties’ 🙂
[What is with these constant attacks on the ABC by Liberal leaders?]
For some, it’s laying the justification for a wholesale to Rupert. For others, it’s just the usual paranoia of an ideological fringe.
lizzie @ 2329
yep.
[SBS just showing flags all around the world at half mast… before cutting to the Australian flag over Parliament House.]
Just awful. As I said last night, even our council flew its flag at half mast yesterday.
Carey:
Like the US Republicans, I think today’s Liberal party can’t resist engaging in culture wars.
Is canyone else getting sick of so-called ‘open letters’? Because I am. If you have something to say then just damn well say it, there’s no need to doll it up as a ‘letter’. Most of them just end up sounding petulant and childish and I wish the writers would just cut it out.
[Like the US Republicans, I think today’s Liberal party can’t resist engaging in culture wars.]
Very apt comment. In fact, I notice a distinctive parallel between some of the rhetoric of this government (or its supporters) and that of the Bush/Cheney administration.
WARNING: Bipartisan post
I must admit though, even though he’s disrespectful and embarrassing, I am still glad that the PM is representing Australia at Mandela’s funeral and I am also grateful that the invitation was extended to Shorten.
The list of inventions/ideas/papers stolen from women by men dwarfs the opposite.
Here are some of them.
http://www.perceptions.couk.com/greatest.html
Carey:
It all started under Howard’s leadership, but has become more entrenched since Bernardi became heavily involved with his US counterparts.
The attacks on the ABC would at one point have been left to lessor lights in Senate committees, or to Liberal mouthpieces in the media such as Bolt and Chris Kenny. Perhaps in a moment of frustration you’d get an oblique remark from Howard.
But now we have a Liberal Prime Minister and LNP Premier making such bold inflammatory statements. It’s very come-downment for people in their positions.
I think Monsieur Curie was quite sick when he had his accident. They both handled the material unprotected. Mm Curie carried on their work after his death, so any thought that all she did was wash the beakers is misogynist crap.
[What is with these constant attacks on the ABC by Liberal leaders?]
They know the ABC leans further right with each attack, they wont be happy until ABC is to the right of News Corp, being a mindless right wing echo chamber (as the ABC currently is) isn’t enough.
Thanks for sharing that Puffy. There’s a lot of injustice in science, especially when it comes to discoveries made by women.
[I am still glad that the PM is representing Australia at Mandela’s funeral and I am also grateful that the invitation was extended to Shorten.]
So am I. I would die of embarrassment if Australia’s PM decided attending such an event was beneath him or her.
Carey
Me too.
And never forget Hypatia of Alexandria.
And Ada Lpvelace, for whom homage should be made every time a computer is switched on. 🙂
http://womenshistory.about.com/od/sciencemath1/tp/aatpmathwomen.htm
carey moore
[. . . and I am also grateful that the invitation was extended to Shorten.]
Oh really. Why are you grateful?
For decency perhaps? Politically? What?
Someone for Abbott to hide his RW condescension behind?
Get stuffed. As if Rudd or Gillard would have invited Abbott to attend such a funeral. And so they shouldn’t.
The leader of a country attends. That’s it. Short schmuk to the LOTO.
When Gillard offered Abbott a bi-partisan trip to Afghanistan and he refused, it was about Australians, not about international citizenship, notwithstanding some type of political grandstanding.
This is different. If Shorten wants to be there, he should go under his own steam, as a representative of Labor. Not some sort sop for Abbott to hide behind.
Hearing some feedback from Yvette D’ath’s first day of street stalls and letterboxing for the Redcliff by election.
Hugely positive reaction for Yvette, disgust for Driscoll is being transferred to the LNP.
Kezza, don’t you have seagulls to yell at or something?
Shorten couldn’t go without Abbott’s invitation I assume, or maybe the invite was for the PM and LOTO, so Abbott had to ‘invite’ Shorten.
WeWantPaul@2341
Yes Agree – the libs have made very good progress on this even when they were out of power.
The ABC have been cowered for years – but no matter what they do they are coping more.
I do wonder though at what stage do the libs over do it all.
The ABC has pretty potent capacity to strike back should they choose to deploy it.
Soon hopefully.
tories busy making enemies as usual and they don’t give a stuff.
Maybe, just maybe they will have to give a stuff – in their own self interests.