BludgerTrack: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition

After substantially narrowing last week, this week the two-party preferred poll aggregate gap all but disappears, while leaving the Coalition some breathing space on the seat projection.

It’s been a quieter week on the polling front in the wake of last week’s bonanza, with only the regular weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan added to the mix. The new additions do nothing to halt the momentum to Labor which emerged in the previous result, with shifts of 1.3% shift on the primary vote and 0.5% on two-party preferred. The latter gain is blunted by the fact that the Greens are down 1.2%, having failed of late to replicate a series of stronger results in early to mid-November. The two-party preferred measure is now being calculated with newly available preference flow results from the September 7 election, replacing modelled preference projections used previously. This hasn’t made much difference to the national result, but it’s helped eliminate an anomalous gain for the Liberals on the seat calculation in South Australia. The other change on the seat projection is an extra gain for Labor in New South Wales. It should be noted that the model continues to leave the Coalition well ahead of Labor despite the position of near-parity on two-party preferred, indicating the impact of “sophomore surge” effects on the BludgerTrack model in the seats Labor most needs to win. See the sidebar for full results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,516 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition”

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  1. [After substantially narrowing last week, this week the two-party preferred poll aggregate gap all but disappears, while leaving the Coalition some breathing space on the seat projection.]

    Not exactly an endorsement of a new government.

  3. I gather the new Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters is comprised as follows:

    Liberals: Alex Hawke (chair); Ian Goodenough; Tony Smith; Senator Helen Kroger; Senator Anne Rushton.
    Labor: Alan Griffin (deputy); Gary Gray; Senator John Faulkner; Senator Mehmet Tillem.
    Greens: Lee Rhiannon.

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Looks like it’s a Sydney thing!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ofarrells-looming-nightmare-20131204-2yr5k.html
    PM Peta is getting some stick from inside the Coalition barricade.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/control-freak-peta-credlin–accused-of-pulling-coalition-strings-20131204-2yqte.html
    The Guardian reveals Pyne’s “Backflip Cheat Sheet”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/04/revealed-pynes-sheet-to-help-him-explain
    High principles on full display.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockey-gets-help-from-greens-over-debt-20131204-2yr3u.html
    Now Morriscum has got under Clive’s ample folds of skin.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/impasse-over-tpvs-widens-as-clive-palmer-weighs-into-debate-20131204-2yr3l.html
    Mark Latham with a good piece on Abbott’s efforts in foreign affairs.
    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/abbott_hits_dead_end_in_indonesia_iXrCpN7tkp86stioZuT5fI
    Popcorn!! Palmer has been appointed to two key economic committees.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clive-palmer-selected-to-influential-roles-on-economics-committees-20131204-2yq99.html
    Richard Marles sums up Morriscum’s latest actions.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrison-being-mean-for-the-hell-of-it-to-asylum-seekers-labor-20131204-2ypst.html
    Cory Bernardi – the modern face of the right! Downright nasty.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cut-abc-funding-urges-liberal-senator-cory-bernardi-as-coalition-ramps-up-attack-on-the-national-broadcaster-20131204-2ypet.html
    All this for $900!
    http://www.smh.com.au/act-news/peter-slippers-fraud-case-to-be-heard-in-higher-court-20131204-2ypmp.html

  5. Section 2 . . .

    Jonathon Holmes comes to the defence of the ABC.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/abcs-tale-of-abject-misery-fails-to-make-a-splash-20131203-2yofl.html
    In a break from politics Alan Moir looks at sledging in cricket.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    Ouch! Cathy Wilcox lines up George Brandis.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    And David Pope excels himself (again!) on the same subject.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    MUST SEE!! David Rowe gives us the Coalition Christmas card. What a rabid looking bunch!
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  8. And from the Land of the Free –

    Can you get your head around this? I can’t.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/12/04/justice-denied-new-york-minute/
    Some cartoons on Amazon’s proposal to use drones for deliveries.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/12/04/cartoons-day-amazons-delivery-drones/
    It’s frightening to contemplate a large city going into bankruptcy.
    http://crooksandliars.com/anonymous/us-judge-rules-detroit-bankruptcy-case
    Where do the Repugs get these clowns from?
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/12/04/1260099/-Extremist-Rep-Duncan-Hunter-R-Moronville-has-a-plan-Nuke-Iran

  9. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cut-abc-funding-urges-liberal-senator-cory-bernardi-as-coalition-ramps-up-attack-on-the-national-broadcaster-20131204-2ypet.html

    being see as ‘left wing’ by bernardi and most prominent liberals would mean having any shred of compassion, intelligence,capacity for independent thought and not being a rabid far right ideologue wouldn’t it?

    If ‘left wing’ is to challenge and question governments and power structures, then all media should have ‘left wing’ bias.

    Survey after survey show that on average smarter and better educated people are more progressive (we see ample evidence of that here every day – although, to be fair, Sean and Turkey bias the results disproportionately against the right with their rabid stupidity – they prove the rule that there’s nobody as dumb as someone who is dumb but thinks they are smart). The abbott Libs consider intelligence to be ‘elite’ and ‘left wing’, but if your media are smarter and better educated they are going to be ‘left-wing’.

    These attacks on the ABC are a real worry – I am sure they’ll soon move to politically stack and then dismantle the ABC. They must be realising they are likely a one term government, and will decide to go out in a blaze of anti-whitlamite ‘glory’. There will a dangerous few months between July 1 and late November next year where they will have power in every state and territory other than the ACT. If Napthine survives in Victoria post November(and watch the resources they and their media friends throw into that cause), they will do even more damage to social (and even liberal) democracy.

  10. Rookie mistakes everywhere from the Abbott government.

    Didn’t these jokers pitch themselves as having ‘experience’ in government under Howard? Doing what? Fetching the coffee?

    I guess Howard and Costello did all the heavy lifting back then, while their colleagues went to weddings.

  13. I had a look at the SMH article linked by BK above re the NSW O’Farrell Government’s current difficulties. I also had a look at the report in the Daily Telegraph. Both reports seemed to be fair and given appropriate prominence. The Telegraph put it behind Craig Thomson’s troubles but then they did involve sex.

    The NSW Opposition Leader’s comments were reported towards the end of each article.

    I am just thinking about how the Telegraph would have treated the story had it been a Labor Government. The last line of the Herald article quotes the NSW Opposition leader John Robertson as saying that the O’Farrell frontbench was ‘unravelling.’ That would have been the headline in the Daily Telegraph, splashed in huge font on the front page and those ubiquitous Daily Telegraph banners.

  14. Mark Kenny celebrates ‘Abbott the First 100 Days’.

    [Ton of pressure: premature end to honeymoon as Tony Abbott hits 100 days in office

    For Tony Abbott, however, the milestone already looms as something quite different – not so much a celebration of the first 100 days as an excuse for the first 100 delays.

    Voters were told again and again this would be a government of results – no excuses……………….

    Results thus far vary between underwhelming to outright failure. Again, not always due to matters in the government’s control.

    But Abbott never gave Julia Gillard any leeway from opposition, so he should expect none now.

    Frustration is beginning to show. Within the government, the anger at Senate intransigence portends unpredictability]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/ton-of-pressure-premature-end-to-honeymoon-as-tony-abbott-hits-100-days-in-office-20131204-2yr3a.html#ixzz2mXXrn2EU

  15. and a further example that they are ideological extremists.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/forest-sector-fears-coalition-will-renew-war/story-fn59niix-1226775448538#mm-premium

    I had an interesting conversation with someone from a business that is liable for carbon pricing, who says many of those effected are furious with the decision to repeal it because of: the work they have done to get it in place and work with clients to renegotiate supply contracts to include the price; the investment decisions they have made to reduce emissions; and the fact that they know carbon pricing will have to be re-introduced sometime within the decade because it is the only effective way to acheive lasting changes efficiently. They look o the US, where regulation is being used rather than an ETS, and would prefer an ETS with a clearly communicated and long term declining cap in emissions all the way to 2050. The industry has been preparing for an ETS since the late 1990s when Howard killed off the scheme developed by Senator Hill (remember him – a real liberal – the fact that he has been replaced in SA by Bernardi speaks tumultuous volumes – the far right’s hold over that party since Howard is terrifying. Imagine how loudly the media would scream if far-left elements took over the labor party – even the Greens provide a very soft left ‘counterbalance’ compared to the extreme right wing nutters in charge of the party and their backers in the murdoch media – I’m to the right of greens policy on a few issues, left of labor’s on most, but then the chasm between ‘us’ and the ilLiberal party is massive and widening. Turnbull’s silence on so many issues and voting against carbon pricing tells us the last of the true liberals have left the building. I have nothing but contempt for him now).

  18. Who would have thought the greens more economically responsible on debt then Labor

    Many would interpret it that way, which would do the Greens no harm. Labor wanted to keep a debt limit, which could be argued to be more responsible. In any case, as I understand it, the Greens do not have a problem with raising taxation and closing tax loopholes to pay for spending, unlike the major parties.

  19. Morning everyone, thanks BK as always. What is the O’Farrell govt scandal? I have reached my Fairfax paywall limit.

    Ifmthere is one thing the Weatherall govt has done that appears to have been a success, it is the new Adelaide oval. Literally most of my office is going to the cricket today. It will be a ghost town at work. There is a christmas lunch on for Roads Australia today (normally a very pleasant meal) and we cannot give the tickets away.

  20. [Morning everyone, thanks BK as always. What is the O’Farrell govt scandal? I have reached my Fairfax paywall limit.]

    Just go to the Canberra times. Same national and political news as the Age without pay wall restrictions.

  23. I note that BB had a shot at Waterford last night.

    IMHO, Waterford was one of the few journos in the MSM who called out the Abbott Opposition on a regular basis. Of course he applied the same criticial thinking to the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd governments.

  24. Rummel thanks, good idea.

    ROTFL Chris Hartcher taking developer donations having started out as a lawyer in Terrigal!! There must be something in the water in that place.

    Have a good day all. Please bowl straight Mitch.

  25. Morning all

    Socrates

    [A corruption scandal threatens to engulf the O’Farrell government next year as it prepares to seek a second term in office after energy and resources minister Chris Hartcher resigned from cabinet following raids by investigators.
    Mr Hartcher, who remains the MP for Terrigal, announced his resignation on Wednesday only weeks after the offices of his fellow central coast Liberal MPs Chris Spence and Darren Webber were raided by officers from the Independent Commission Against Corruption.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ofarrells-looming-nightmare-20131204-2yr5k.html#ixzz2mXftTFco

  26. Just go to the Canberra times. Same national and political news as the Age without pay wall restrictions.

    Ditto for the Sydney Morning Herald. I’ve been going to the Canberra Times since the SMH paywall was put up. If there’s important Sydney news it’ll be there. If I wanted local trivia (with a Coalition slant if it has any political implications) I could go to the Telecrap.

  30. A mini word cloud from Kenny’s latest column…

    * Rudd
    * silky booklet
    * joke
    * reviewing
    * active enough.
    * Tony Abbott
    * looms
    * different
    * excuse
    * Unqualified promise
    * hostile Senate.
    * priorities
    * hammered
    * scrapping
    * stopping
    * fixing
    * mess
    * ending
    * cutting
    * honour
    * taint
    * travel claims
    * Results
    * underwhelming
    * outright failure
    * control
    * leeway
    * expect none
    * Frustration
    * anger
    * intransigence
    * unpredictability
    * overtaken
    * conservative anger
    * pep-talk
    * ”pretty happy”
    * performance
    * challenges
    * Really?
    * Newspoll
    * Nielsen
    * marked drift away
    * assessment
    * Gonski
    * capitulation
    * bad month
    * taken outside
    * and shot
    * distraction
    * threatened
    * problem
    * obstructionist
    * filibuster
    * forced
    * roll over
    * legislative roadblocks
    * sheer government incompetence
    * school funding shambles
    * pulling their hair out
    * blaming Abbott’s office
    * Peta Credlin
    * insistence
    * micro-managing
    * Ruddify
    * pile-ups amassing
    * Critics
    * aghast
    * insanity
    * entitlements
    * liability
    * furore
    * Don Randall
    * failed
    * political bleeding
    * entitlements abuses
    * compound error
    * banking on the Christmas break
    * hope of starting again

    I articularly like the use of the “I” word: “Incompetence”, indeed “sheer government incompetence” has a nice ring to it.

    Also, Kenny seems to have given up his idea that Abbott is some kind of diplomatic natural, a Foreign Affairs savant who can work a throne room, using charm and native warmth to win over even the most intractable of opponents. His words for this were “underwhelming” and “outright failure”.

    Take your pick.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/ton-of-pressure-premature-end-to-honeymoon-as-tony-abbott-hits-100-days-in-office-20131204-2yr3a.html#ixzz2mXeQNTij

  31. Socrates and Steve777
    If you use IE’s “In Private” or Chrome’s “inconito” browsing the fairfax paywalls (not AFR’s) are overcome.

    GG
    The NT paper is too highbrow for me to peruse I’m afraid!

  33. The Australian and Herald Sun have been on a crusade this week. They have pages and pages of reports on the AFL and the Essendon saga. They obviously have an agenda to get at certain parties in the whole miserable affair. I personally gone past the point of giving a stuff

  34. Yesterday in the Senate QT the chamber erupted in raucous laughter when a Minister started using the term “Abbptt/Truss government”.
    Understandable really.

  38. Watching QT has been a painful exercise. I cant fathom the arrogance and hubris on display by Abbott and his flunkies. Do they seriously think they are succeeding in governing. Bizarro world comes to mind.

  39. Re Guytar @27: The NSA tracks the locations of 5 billion mobile phones worldwide every day. Insane.

    Yes, I was thinking 5 billion – that would be just about every mobile in the world (with 7 billion people).

    But the article doesn’t exactly say that. It says “5 billion records a day on the whereabouts of cellphones around the world”, so it depends upon how many records a day it generates for each mobile under surveillance. Still an awful lot though, likely tens or hundreds of millions of phones being tracked.

  40. To get around the Fairfax paywall just open a new private window.

    You can also delete the Fairfax cookies including analytics.fairfax.com.au.

    The Age, the Brisbane Times and WAtoday also carry all the big Fairfax stories.

  46. As someone who lives in a conservative area, this kind of thing s**ts me to tears –

    .
    [The Victorian Environment Minister Ryan Smith says he will consider reinstating alpine grazing if a trial finds it reduces fuel loads with a minimal environmental impact]

    So, in other words, he won’t. Because we’ve trialled alpine grazing for 150 years and we know the answer.

    [“If we can assess that grazing does reduce fuel loads and maintains fuel loads, then we’d certainly consider using grazing more broadly,”]

    Isn’t this contradictory?

    [Mr Smith said while planned burning reduced fuel, grazing was useful to maintain it once the area had been burnt.]

    Mr Smith showed a dismal understanding of his own portfolio. You don’t ‘plan burn’ the High Plains. It’s an area which naturally doesn’t burn that often. The plants there don’t react to burning in the same way plants do in lower altitudes.

    If you burn the High Plains on a regular basis, the vegetation dies.

    There’s some argument that you can graze cattle on the lower slopes of mountains and it does have some benefit. But of course, that raises the question of how you keep them on the lower slopes.

    This annoys me because it’s a common approach taken in this area. Instead of saying to a community, “We can’t do this because —” the Coalition promises trials, reviews, studies etc into issues where the science was settled long ago. They hold out the false hope that yes, you’ll see that dam built, yes, you’ll get cattle back into the High Plains, yes, we’ll get on top of the wild dog problem…instead of saying “Look, we’ve faffed around with these issues for years. If there’s a problem here, we need to find another way of solving it.”

    In the case of our local dam (which I have no objection to anyone enlarging, but it’s not going to happen) the locals have been promised by various Coalition governments over fifty years that they’ll ‘look into’ expanding it.

    In the meantime, I know of multi million dollar investment opportunities which have been knocked back because they’d get in the way of this expansion.

    All because no local member has the b*lls to say, “It’s never going to happen, so let’s get on with it.”

    http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/1952797/alpine-grazing-back-on-agenda/?cs=11

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