BludgerTrack: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition

After substantially narrowing last week, this week the two-party preferred poll aggregate gap all but disappears, while leaving the Coalition some breathing space on the seat projection.

It’s been a quieter week on the polling front in the wake of last week’s bonanza, with only the regular weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan added to the mix. The new additions do nothing to halt the momentum to Labor which emerged in the previous result, with shifts of 1.3% shift on the primary vote and 0.5% on two-party preferred. The latter gain is blunted by the fact that the Greens are down 1.2%, having failed of late to replicate a series of stronger results in early to mid-November. The two-party preferred measure is now being calculated with newly available preference flow results from the September 7 election, replacing modelled preference projections used previously. This hasn’t made much difference to the national result, but it’s helped eliminate an anomalous gain for the Liberals on the seat calculation in South Australia. The other change on the seat projection is an extra gain for Labor in New South Wales. It should be noted that the model continues to leave the Coalition well ahead of Labor despite the position of near-parity on two-party preferred, indicating the impact of “sophomore surge” effects on the BludgerTrack model in the seats Labor most needs to win. See the sidebar for full results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,516 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition”

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  1. Oh another coupla things.

    GMH said they would close if Abbott is elected.

    It seems Jetstar will serve the people of Corangamite by pulling out of Avalon. Despite Sarah’s pleading in the media.

  2. Please may he keep his mouth shut.

    Abbott, Shorten to attend memorial
    1:58pm PM to travel to Johannesburg to represent Australia at the memorial service for Nelson Mandela.

  3. [There has been a serious uranium mine spill near Jabiru, in the middle of Kakadu National Park. About 1 million litres of acidic radioactive material spilled from the processing tank, which split open.]

    Everything is radioactive.

    I know leftists like talking about science backed policy, but you guys are very selective on what science you ignore.

  4. ru

    [The SA politicians will be making the SA Libs pay.]

    Weatherill has been all over it. For once he’s been proactive. He’s managed to turn what should be a huge negative into a positive (politically at least because it’s obviously still very bad for Adelaide).

  5. [Everything is radioactive. I know leftists like talking about science backed policy, but you guys are very selective on what science you ignore.]

    Even by your standards, that is an incredibly stupid remark. You really are as dumb as dogshit, aren’t you? It’s actually kind of comforting to know that the Liberal Party consists of such utter fuckwits as yourself.

  6. Personally I’m not convinced we should be handing out hundreds of millions of dollars of taxpayers money to prop up a private company endlessly but I will enjoy seeing Abbott suffer the consequences.

  7. [It is going to be very very bad in the Northern areas of Adelaide. This place is going to be a ghost town.]

    The North will recover, it’s just going to be a wakeup call to the government not to put its eggs in one basket.

    Actually, with the aegis of Holden gone, the unemployment in the North might actually be taken a bit more seriously.

  8. [Everything is radioactive.

    I know leftists like talking about science backed policy, but you guys are very selective on what science you ignore.]

    You go spend a couple of months living in Fukushima, no make it 4 or 5 months, living in areas that those silly lefties ban people from living in. Oh and please do pay for your own treatment and palliative care, you wouldn’t want to bludge on the public purse.

  9. Funny thing is I would ignore Sean’s stupidity because we all have knowledge gaps or stupid opinions at times but he so delights on trying to talk down to everybody else that he opens himself up to abuse.

  10. Is it just me or has anybody else noticed a difference in the tone of Mark Kenny’s articles since writing for Fairfax? Never had a positive thing to say about the previous government when writing for Murdochs rags.

  11. I get a great deal of pleasure looking at the column on the right and seeing the Abbott Coalition of Four slowly slipping down and down

  12. Carey

    [Should add that my comment about the North is a long term projection. In the short term it is going to feel a lot of pain!]

    Weatherill and Marshall need to show they have a plan.

  13. Help…

    I know a few of you have some expertise in looking after injured wildlife.

    I just came across a smallish wattle bird in the backyard. Flapping around on the ground and seemingly unable to fly. I picked him up and he was initially shaking a lot but seems to have settled a bit now. He has no obvious injury. What is the best course of action?

  14. [Weatherill and Marshall need to show they have a plan.]

    Agreed.

    I think some of the progressive thinking that’s gone into city and inner suburb development over the last few years should be adapted to the North too. Personally I think a push towards high tech development would be useful, as well as working with the councils to improve the cultural image of the place, so it’s not just seen as a deadbeat region where there’s no point in serious business investment.

  15. Is it just me or has anybody else noticed a difference in the tone of Mark Kenny’s articles since writing for Fairfax?

    When he first came to my attention writing for Fairfax he was writing complete crap about how Shorten and the ALP were going to wave the repeal of the carbon price through.

    Full of ambiguous language (never defining what he meant ‘carbon tax’ to mean, eg), lack of any credible source and basically just uninformed gossip/guesswork/misinterpretation of whatever leaks he had.

    Mark Kenny’s more recent work does seem to be focusing more on the shortcomings of the LNP government. I can’t really tell if his basic journalistic quality has improved. I wouldn’t expect so.

  16. Carey

    It’s one thing for Labor and Lib to indulge in finger pointing but it’s far enough away that the electorate will move on from that and want to know who will fix it.

  17. Presumably the SA government will have a fair chunk of budget freed up if they can claw back what has been promised to Holden to stay in SA.

    With someone who knows what they’re doing planning it, I’m sure that money could be put to good use to get businesses going and hiring for the longer term…

  18. [I just came across a smallish wattle bird in the backyard. Flapping around on the ground and seemingly unable to fly. I picked him up and he was initially shaking a lot but seems to have settled a bit now. He has no obvious injury. What is the best course of action?]

    My wife does rescue work for wires, and she recommends:

    1. Put the bird in a dark box in a quiet place.

    2. Before you close the lid, put a towel over it to keep it warm.

    3. Wait a couple of hours and observe it to see if it’s improved.

    It might have flown into a hard object (window, tree etc.) and may just be a bit stunned.

    IT could also be concussed, which will mean looking after it overnight.

    If it’s still wobbly the next morning, call WIRES or take it to a vet.

    You could put some water in a small bowl in the box, next to it. No solid food.

  19. [Mark Kenny’s more recent work does seem to be focusing more on the shortcomings of the LNP government. I can’t really tell if his basic journalistic quality has improved. I wouldn’t expect so.]

    I detect a “more in sorrow, than in anger” tone to Kenny’s work.

    He’s a partisan journo, a gun for hire. He was one of the quickest to declare Abbott’s first meeting with SBY an unqualified success, bringing us virtual “Peace In Our Time”.

  20. Jolyon

    Pick a place where there’s a soft landing and try a gentle toss into the air. If the bird doesn’t fly, then…

    …place gently in a nice bushy shrub, where he’ll be safe.

    ….if he’s still there, say, ten minutes later, then it’s confinement in a box in a cool dark place. As it’s a wattle bird, I’d put in some bread soaked in honey or sugary water.

    But best of all, contact a local wildlife rescuer. They’ll know better than I do!

  21. …so I defer to BB’s wife. But I would try the gentle toss. A lot of ‘stunned’ birds take off as soon as they’re air borne.

  22. Good grief!!!

    Rudd uncourageous?

    Well if that’s what Mumble thinks, he’s an idiot, and so is anybody else who thinks likewise!

    The stimulus which Rudd implemented to save Australia from a recession took serious balls, great BIG marbles.

    The most courageous act by a PM of our time – you better believe it.

    If only Rudd had not thought of the stupid environment with his pink batts scheme and found other means…he would have been a legend!

    Bloody Greens, yes I even blame them for the pink batts scheme 😈

  23. Centre @ 2186
    [If only Rudd had not thought of the stupid environment with his pink batts scheme]

    What was wrong with it, apart from the political failures?

  24. [Even by your standards, that is an incredibly stupid remark.]

    So you deny everything is radioactive?

    There are different levels of radiation. Uranium Ore while obviously higher than standard levels of radiation is not dangerous.

    The Extreme Greens who don’t do science unless it suits them should know this.

  25. I’m envious that ru has a carpet python in his roof. The closest I get to that is the redback in the bathroom. (Note to self: go in there with shoe).

  26. rua

    [he carpet python]

    We had a huge one in the shearing shed.

    It used to take to the rathers when the shed was packed with sheep and people.

  27. Tism

    The problem in the NT is uranium mixed with acid, the slurry has eaten its way through a containment tank.

    You volunteering to go there and soak it up with a wettex?

  28. Jolyon Wagg

    [zoomster
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 4:11 pm | PERMALINK
    …so I defer to BB’s wife. But I would try the gentle toss. A lot of ‘stunned’ birds take off as soon as they’re air borne.]

    Since it’s a smallish wattle bird, could be a fledgling failing its first take-off – or it has already come into contact with a cat (they like to play before the kill).

    Speaking of which, psephos, why are’t you on your honeymoon. Or are you like Julia Gillard and don’t believe in the institution of marriage?

  29. Not good that GMH will no longer operate in Australia. It’s not good for jobs and for those in related industries.

    Also, it will push car prices higher in general. It’s economically wiser if they were given assistance.

    The only winners here are the Greens 🙁

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