BludgerTrack: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition

After substantially narrowing last week, this week the two-party preferred poll aggregate gap all but disappears, while leaving the Coalition some breathing space on the seat projection.

It’s been a quieter week on the polling front in the wake of last week’s bonanza, with only the regular weekly Essential Research and fortnightly Morgan added to the mix. The new additions do nothing to halt the momentum to Labor which emerged in the previous result, with shifts of 1.3% shift on the primary vote and 0.5% on two-party preferred. The latter gain is blunted by the fact that the Greens are down 1.2%, having failed of late to replicate a series of stronger results in early to mid-November. The two-party preferred measure is now being calculated with newly available preference flow results from the September 7 election, replacing modelled preference projections used previously. This hasn’t made much difference to the national result, but it’s helped eliminate an anomalous gain for the Liberals on the seat calculation in South Australia. The other change on the seat projection is an extra gain for Labor in New South Wales. It should be noted that the model continues to leave the Coalition well ahead of Labor despite the position of near-parity on two-party preferred, indicating the impact of “sophomore surge” effects on the BludgerTrack model in the seats Labor most needs to win. See the sidebar for full results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,516 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.3-49.7 to Coalition”

Comments Page 43 of 51
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  3. guytaur
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 1:38 pm | PERMALINK
    DN

    Seeing reality is important. Some in Labor are still blaming the Greens for stuff that has nothing to do with the Greens.

    Once they stop doing that and look at the issues then that period will become history.

    Another example is the economics. Labor did a great job as economic managers but you would not know it from media.
    Nothing to do with the Greens.

    ————–NOVEMBER 2009. RIP. that was before rudd changed mind before everything. an act of political stupidity if not bastardry and no responsibility ever taken.

  4. bemused

    [Regrettably, he heeded that advice. But yes, in the end he owns it.]

    Thank you.

    On another point I’ve watched a Cabinet other than our own up close. It doesn’t quite happen by democratic voting rules as you seem to think. Once a leader is ‘rolled’ by their Cabinet they’re ‘dead meat’.

    I don’t imagine it’s any different here.

    Phespos can likely offer opinion.

  6. Some of youse would have noted the following three-step pattern with the Abbott Government:

    Generate a cock-up, often involving lies.
    Implement a desperate scramble of lies to save face.
    Generate a sub-optimal face-saving solution as the politics, and a Liberal dose of lies, kicks the policy can out of the way.

    The thing about the Abbott Government’s problems with 1.3 billion chines is that Abbott&Co bumbled around and decided, like a clueless puppy, to suck up to Japan by telling the Japanese that they were Australia’s best friend.

    They did this when Abe is kicking the Shinto Shine can domestically, ignoring Fukushima, re-arming like crazy, and printing yen as if the sun will not rise tomorrow.

    The chinese, a bit Abbott-like, cock up by announcing an air defence zone over the disputed territories.

    Australia does the right thing and protests.

    The Chinese, having nothing to lose vis-a-vis Australia already being Australia’s ‘best friend’, sink the hegemonic slipper into the Abbott Government.

    The same thing happened with the Great Australian Spy Scandal: Abbott&Co had spent years irritating the buggery out of the Indonesias, plain as day to everyone in Indonesia but, apparently to no-one in Abbott’s Inner Circle. Cometh the moment cometh the blowback.

    The whole rest of the world, except for Bolt’s Brigade of Nasties, gets Mandela.
    But not Abbott. This does rather beg the question as to what Abbott does get.
    Now we are told by Abbott’s Inner Circle that it was up to some junior bureaucrat in PM&C to lower the flag to half mast. Enquiries may show that he/she was queuing for a permit from the Prime Minister for some travel, or was revising his/her CV pending being given the chop by the Abbott Government. Who knows?

    Etc, etc, etc.

  11. Re dropping the CPRS in 2010: Given that Rudd had decided for whatever reason that there was going to be no Double Dissolution in early 2010, he should have taken the CPRS into the 2010 election whenever it was to be held, postponing action on the ‘greatest moral challenge’ for a little over a year until the Senate changed in mid 2011. He would have forced the Coalition to either come out as climate change deniers or put up a credible alternative. Even with the full support of the Murdochracy, the Coalition would have been divided on the issue. Abbott would have campaigned on the basis of ‘a great big new tax on everything’. Labor might have lost in November 2010 with the 1 or 2 percentage points delivered to Abbott by Murdoch, but that was a risk worth taking – what’s the point of being in power if you’re merely ‘in office’. And who knows, If Abbott had won then, we might now be in the first days of a new cleanskin Gillard government.

  13. The Ruins of Detroit
    _________________
    I have watched the news items re the Banruptcy of Detroit and the terrible effects on about 30.000 superannuated elderly residents who stand to lose their pesnions and be destitute ,their only asserts …their houses which are unasaleable…in a city with 70.000 empty houses,in variuous stages of collapse

    These pics are of major public buildngs also abandoned
    We visted Detroit earlier this year to see the bizarre landscapes of this ruined city..truly amazing…and one wonders what it says about US capitalism as this stage of history

    http://www.weather.com/travel/modern-ruins-abandoned-detroit-photos-20130715

  15. North Korea looking very unstable which is not helpful at the moment in the current East Asian tensions.

    Quick – send in Julie Bishop to Pyongyang to sort the North Koreans out.

  16. Geofrrey Ctari and others.

    The who Carbon Tax/ETS was a debacle from start to finish but it is foolish, unfair and just plain wrong to blame it all on Rudd.

    In February Rudd put off the ETS and lost a lot of credibility – especially because he put no alternative in place.

    BUT, BUT ,BUT

    While he must take ownership of this decision those who forced him into the decision must also shoulder a good deal of the blame. I cannot see how Rudd had ANY CHOICE but to put off the ETS. It is glaringly obvious that he was rolled in Cabinet (or would have been) and therefore CABINET (the whole lot) must take most of the blame. Rudd could NOT have gone for a DD on the issue because Cabinet would have overruled him.

    There were 20 members of Cabinet

    Supporting strong action on climate change (But not necessarily a DD)

    Rudd Wong Faulkner
    Macklin Evans Tanner
    Albanese Garrett (I count 8) (ie less than half the cabinet.

    Opposed to strong action of climate change and definitely NOT supporting a DD)

    Gillard Swan Ferguson
    Crean Ludwig In count 5)

    Ambiguous but probably opposed to strong action

    Roxon, Conroy Burke
    Bowen Smith Carr
    Mclelland

    No Rudd lost his nerve is true but when at least 25% of you cabinet is opposed to taking a strong stand on a DD and another 30% are ambiguous at best, NO LEADER, no matter how brave would be able to run a DD.

  17. S777

    That’d make the elite bolt for the Chinese border.

    I heard earlier Bish Jnr is in the Philippines for the weekend … what could possibly go wrong?

  18. DTT

    [While he must take ownership of this decision those who forced him into the decision must also shoulder a good deal of the blame. ]

    Same misconception ‘forced’ by Cabinet?

    I doubt it.

  20. There has been a serious uranium mine spill near Jabiru, in the middle of Kakadu National Park. About 1 million litres of acidic radioactive material spilled from the processing tank, which split open.

    But don’t worry, it’s OK , it all went onto compacted earth, tarmac and into drains. No-one is sayng where those drains drain to though. Grunt is onto it, so we can all rest assured that everything will be fine, no damage done, nothing to see or worry about folks. let’s go back to blaming everything on Labor…….
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-07/spill-at-nt-uranium-mine-near-kakadu/5142148

  21. Ctar1
    Of course EVERY PM is forced by cabinet if they have not got a majority. Only a fool would force a DD on an issue without STRONG support from Cabinet. Rudd obviously did not have strong support, especially once Swan and Gillard switched to supporting the No ETS side.

    It had fairly obviously started to form as a Left/Right battle and I think under this condition a DD could NOT have been contemplated.

    How on EARTH could the ALP led by Rudd have run a convincing election campaign on the ETS when:

    The Deputy Leader opposed the ETS
    The TREASURER opposed the ETS
    The industry minister opposed the ETS

    It would not could not have been successful or at least would have been an extremely risky strategy.

    As I say I think Rudd could have handled the postponement better in PR terms, but to seriously believe he COULD have run a DD on the ETS is just plain out of touch with political reality. The day Swan and Gillard decided they opposed the ETS all hope of action collapsed. Big time.

  23. If I was Prime Minister, would I have called for a DD election on the CPRS?

    NO WAY! Going to a DD presented risks under those circumstances.

    HOWEVER, had the Greens supported the CPRS that would’ve been a different story altogether.

    You could have gone to the election with an agreement between Rudd (Labor) + Turnbull (50% of Coalition) + the Greens v Abbott and all his sceptics!

    What then would the consequences have been:

    – Rudd wins election.

    – Abbott never becomes PM.

    – Gillard would have remained as popular as she was and been PM today.

    The Greens, well done!

    Now they have the bestest friend the environment ever had AND soon no carbon pricing, after the new Senate takes its position, at all 😎

  25. [Only a fool would force a DD on an issue]

    On a fool would force a DD on an issue with already plumetting support in the public where it is going to be smashed from the left and the right that it is rubbish on the issue. The idea that a double DD should have even been considered as something more than a funny joke is about the silliest idea from all the Rudd / Gillard years.

  27. DTT

    They didn’t oppose

    [the ETS all hope of action collapsed.]

    What was proposed was to stop talking about the ‘greatest moral challenge’ after Kev decline to go to a DD until they were in a more favourable position.

    Meanwhile even I’m watching the Cricket and taking the pi$s out of some Pommie friends (one a MCC Member) via e-mail so I may be an unreliable correspondent. 😀

  28. England look set to have to follow on. It’s like this is a completely different team than the one which beat Australia in England.

  29. If Rudd had gone to a DD election been smashed by both the greens and the libs on how silly the CPRS is, there would have been a strong liberal win in both houses and no ETS. Much like in July next year.

  30. Speaking of sport.

    Have you guys checked the draw for round 1. of the ARL?

    Souths v Roosters

    Bulldogs v Broncos

    Manly v Melbourne

    __________________

    Dragons v Tigers

    Penrith v Newcastle

    Warriors v Parra

    Sharks v Titans

    Cows v Raiders

    Wow, the betting, especially on games above the line, will be breathtaking.

    I’ll never maker it ’til first week in March 😐

  32. Steve777 @ 2115
    [Quick – send in Julie Bishop to Pyongyang to sort the North Koreans out.]

    Only if our government hands out the suicide pills first. NK nukes aren’t that effective, it might be a slow lingering death without the pills.

  34. [It’s like this is a completely different team than the one which beat Australia in England.]

    I think both teams should be swabbed.

  35. If Rudd had said to Cabinet after the defeat of the CPRS bills in December 2009: “We will bring the bills back in February, and if they are defeated again I will call a DD election, and now I am going out to tell the media that,” everyone would have said “Yes PM, great decision PM”, and that would have been that. That’s how you do leadership. If Rudd had done that, he would have smashed Abbott at the DD, and would still be PM now. That failure of leadership crippled him, and then he crippled Gillard (with some help from her own failures), and now Abbott is PM. History turns on acts of leadership, or as in this case, failures thereof.

  36. Kevin Rudd deferred the CPRS until after the end of the initial Kyoto protocol period on 31/12/2012, which effectively meant that it was postponed until the run-up to the 2013 election. So the 2010 election was fought on the basis that other than a bit of fiddling around the edges, nothing would be happening on action on climate change in the upcoming parliament. Rather similar to the Abbott Government’s position on industrial relations (although if it suits him or his business backers insist I’m sure he’ll change his mind).

  37. [and if they are defeated again I will call a DD election, and now I am going out to tell the media that,” everyone would have said “Yes PM, great decision PM”, and that would have been that. ]

    Yup. Although, if he had done it, the Greens may have passed it second time around to avoid the DD. Either way Abbott gone.

  39. No, I think the Liberals that voted for the CPRS in the Senate only did so because the Greens were opposed.

    Worse still for the Greens if they could have legislated for the CPRS with their support.

    Nuisance and a hindrance alright!

  41. [History turns on acts of leadership, or as in this case, failures thereof.]

    Even Mumble refers to Rudd as the most uncourageous PM in recent history.

  42. Grounded Theory ‏@DrLibHoundPhD 31m
    @randlight Australia’s sad drift to politically insane brought by the same forces who gave #Faux News here in the Northern Hemisphere ….

    From a very smart hound in US, who follows me on twitter 😀

  43. [After the 2010 election Gillard should have said to the Greens: “I said there would be no carbon tax, and there will be no carbon tax. So let’s come up with a market-based scheme that will pass the Senate.”]

    One would assume this is what she DID say, and got knocked back.

    The Greens wanted an open-ended Carbon Tax. Labor had originally wanted a 1 year Carbon Tax.

    3 years – including setting up an ETS, green investment bank etc. – might have sounded about right to a PM who had one less seat in the house than her opponents.

    It might not have only been the Greens, either. Maybe a couple of the Independents wanted a tax component, too?

    We’ll know one day, but until then it’s speculation from both sides of the argument.

    The above is my own speculation on the matter.

    I don’t think Gillard just said “Yeah, sure” to a 3-year Carbon Tax. She probably had to say, “No, no way” to something of longer duration first.

  46. [2140
    confessions
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 3:06 pm | PERMALINK
    Panesar dropped by Clarke.]

    Twice in the one go! FFS! 🙁

  47. [

    That’s a very specific report. My general rule is that the more detail, the more likely it is to be true.

    [GENERAL Motors decided to close its Holden operation in Adelaide as part of a global restructure that involves the closure of three plants worldwide.

    The Detroit-based motor giant, which had planned to announce the closure yesterday, granted Holden a last-minute reprieve after deciding it didn’t want to book the cost of the closure in this quarter’s financial results.]

  48. [2140
    confessions
    Posted Saturday, December 7, 2013 at 3:06 pm | PERMALINK
    Panesar dropped by Clarke.]

    Twice in the one go! FFS! 🙁

  49. Diog

    Seems very similar to the ABC story, GMH to close but will announce it later.

    The SA politicians will be making the SA Libs pay.

  50. Deb

    Detroit quite amazing.

    A real contrast with Europe where mainly the remains of ‘before’ are integrated with the new in a non-destructive way and re-used as a ‘feature’.

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