The Australian Electoral Commission finally lifted the lid on the completed federal election count yesterday, the detail we’ve all been waiting for being the final national two-party preferred result: 53.49-46.51 to the Coalition. That makes it the Coalition’s seventh best result since 1949, after 1966, 1975, 1977, 1955, 1958 and 1996, and better than any achieved since 1943 by Labor, whose modern high-water mark was Bob Hawke’s 53.23-46.77 victory in 1983. Labor nonetheless managed slender wins in the two-party vote race in Victoria (50.2%) and Tasmania (51.2%), with Western Australia remaining its worst state (41.72%).
No less interesting is the data on minor parties’ preference splits between Labor and the Coalition, confirming a significant increase in the share of preferences received by Labor compared with 2010. Labor’s share of Greens preferences was 83.03%, which compares with 80.78% in 2004, 79.69% in 2007 and 78.84% in 2010. My best guess here is that the Greens tended to lose votes from those driven by anti-major party sentiment, perhaps because of the closeness of their association with the government, leaving behind a more ideological voter base with a particular hostility to Tony Abbott.
Labor received 46.33% of Palmer United Party preferences, nearly identical to the overall “others” result of 46.69%. The latter was also the best for Labor since such figures were first published in 2004, recovering from a low of 41.74% in 2010. One consequence of this was that pollsters’ preference models based on 2010 election results overstated the Coalition on two-party preferred. Had preferences been as they were in 2010, the Coalition would have scored an extra 1% and a few more seats.
Abbott and Pyne presser
Fran
The implication that I was making was that the “Games on” statement indicated a particular mindset with related high probability risks.
A bit akin to a skilful technical boxer entering the ring with a bare knuckled brawler …… few serious and knowledgeable afficionardos of the game would advise a true boxer to do so.
Oh look! Abbott’s wearing a blue tie.
He is talking about Shorten “ripping 1.2 billion dollars out of the education budget”.
Prissy has secured an
“in principle agreement” with those states that didn’t sgin up. He has put the 1.2 bill back in.
Tones and Pyne eating shit.
Abbott thinks calling something Canberra Command and Control makes it toxic to voters. Hello. Operation Sovereign Borders
“@gabriellechan: Abbott Pyne press conference now: Gonski backflip must be hurting.”
Pyne dissembling at the first question.
Andrew Probyn jumps down the lying Prissy’s throat.
Pyneocchio reversed and reversed again and again.
😆
“@joshgnosis: If the government found $1.2 billion extra in funding for schools, where exactly is that money coming from?”
It is really hard to keep up with Abbott and Pyne’s lies on education.
Have they done a backflip on their backflip?
[“Mr Pyne put $230m in…”]
Said like it was his own cash. What a wanker.
These guys have got more twists and turns than an Su30.
“@scottsues: I’m glad before the election @TonyAbbottMHR didn’t promise not to go to war with NZ. #auspol”
So, are we back to no school will be worse off?
guytaur@2160
Actually, that is a fairly dumb type of question.
The money just adds to the deficit.
“@latikambourke: PM Abbott asked if this will add to the deficit? ‘we have identitfied appropriate savings’. Strap in for MYEFO this month folks.”
David Speers “Where did the extra 1.2 bill suddfenly come from?” Wait till the mid year financial report says Abbott.
Tones has had a busy Sunday – Money no problem.
Debt crisis!
bemused
You are forgetting this is a “debt fighting” government.
I’m sorry, but this PM just gives me the shits!
Yep. 100%, 180 degrees somersault by Abbott and Pyne
How shamblesment.
BK@2168
Yes, the deficit will be another $1.2B higher when dopey Joe promised a surplus.
Abbott looks stressed.
No wonder they want to raise thee debt limit to $500 billion!
“@latikambourke: Attorney General George Brandis to make a statement in the Senate on intelligence re snowden leaks.”
“@TheKouk: Good old Sid Maher – change the topic. Thanks Sid!”
BK
[I’m sorry]
No need at all.
Anyone know what time Palmer’s speech is, or did I miss it already?
Sounds like the savings are going to come from the educaton budget.
Now Dwnnis Atkins has a crack at PMBO.
Psephos
Expected around 5
“@bairdjulia: How’s this for an excellent German word: Backpfeifengesicht. It means “a face that deserves to be slapped.” So useful.”
BK@2180
You mean they are going to save $1.2B in the education budget so they can put $1.2B into the education budget?
I somehow don’t think too many will fall for that one.
“@Deadly_Thoughts: This has been a disaster for the LNP nothing says it like the speed of the backflip. #auspol #gonski #laborwin”
Phil Coorey trying to nail down the specific pre-election statement. Pyne seemed to suggest that the MODEL will be adopted for those that signed.
Let’s wait and see.
Laura Tingle with a follow up. Abbott steps in.
Bemused
I agree. Buit I reckon that’s waht he suggested. MYEFO will be interesting.
[An “escape goat” is a goat you keep in your bathtub,]
OOOH! Has Psephos been perving into Pynes bathroom window?? 🙂
While having many elements of an own goal, the education backflip is a big win for Shorten and his team.
“@PaulaTaylor01: Amazon testing delivery by drone, CEO Bezos says http://t.co/pe04lYlFKx via @usatoday”
Yes Abbott AAA ratings are the result of such economic incompetence
[Expected around 5]
Ta. Most anticipated first speech for some time.
BTW, before you see Brandis on his hind legs on intell… I suggest you read the relevant Guardian article…
The kaka is going to hit the revolving fan, IMHO.
BK@2186
The comments by competent economics writers should be interesting.
Abbott seems to have a black eye. Heavily covered with makeup, but still visible, as it was in his ‘what would you do with an extra $500’ video. Did someone hit him? Margie?
“@bairdjulia: Gonski four year funding restored! Dying to read an investigative account of Christopher Pyne’s weekend, LNP calls, texts, tipping points.”
Abbott handling the Snowden stuff OK in my opinion.
The ravens in the parliament house garden sound like they are ready to attack Tony Abbott.
BK
Nope
“@BernardKeane: Abbott claims Snowden revelation is only about “essentially the billing data” – plainly wrong if you read the article.”
I note that the Australian Ravens are calling while Abbott and Pyne and are doing their backflip.
Ravens are regarded as tricksters in Indigenous mythology.
They were admiring Abbott and Pyne.
I think space kiddette has nailed it
“@SpaceKidette: I’m thinking the legal beagles came back and told #Toneocchio and #Pyneocchio that they must honour the agreements on #Gonski!”
[“@BernardKeane: Abbott claims Snowden revelation is only about “essentially the billing data” – plainly wrong if you read the article.”]
Abbott lying again?