Galaxy: 56-44 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A new Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland chimes with the general picture elsewhere in finding little change on the election result.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research poll): The latest Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is unchanged on last week with the Coalition on 44%, Labor on 35% and the Greens on 9%, with the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. The poll finds only 28% rating the new government’s handling of asylum seekers as good versus 40% for poor; 65% considering a budget surplus important for the country versus 27% for not important, which becomes 52% and 38% when framed as important to the respondent personally; 12% thinking the government will probably deliver a surplus in its first year versus 68% who think it probably won’t; and 37% thinking it will do so within three years, in line with its promise, against 40% who think it won’t. Also featured are questions on issues of concern and the best party to handle them, which show across-the-board improvement for the Coalition since immediately before the election, reduced concern about the budget surplus (presumably because Coalition supporters have become less inclined to nominate it as a problem) and increased concern about interest rates.

UPDATE (Morgan poll): The fortnightly Morgan multi-mode poll has the Coalition up a point to 42.5%, Labor down 2.5% to 32.5%, the Greens up half a point to 11% and the Palmer United Party down half a point to 5%. The respondent-allocated two-party preferred moves from 50-50 to 51-49 in favour of the Coalition.

The Courier-Mail has today reported findings on federal voting intention from the Queensland poll for which state voting intention results appeared yesterday. The Coalition holds a two-party preferred lead of 56-44, which compares with what will probably be about 57-43 once two-party figures from Kennedy and Fairfax are finally included in the Australian Electoral Commission’s statewide election result. Primary votes from the poll are 46% for the Liberal National Party (45.7% at the election), 30% for Labor (29.8%), 8% for the Palmer United Party (11.0%), 7% for the Greens (6.2%), 3% for Katter’s Australian Party (3.7%) and 6% for others (3.6%). Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail wisely notes that the missing Palmer United Party support “might not have disappeared altogether, as it appears to have gone to the ‘others’”, which is up from 3.6% to 6%. The poll was conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 800. Also featured:

• Sixty-three per cent of respondents, including 32% of Labor and 89% of LNP supporters, oppose Labor holding up the carbon tax abolition bills in the Senate. Twenty-nine per cent are in favour, including 59% of Labor and 6% of LNP supporters.

• Fifty-nine per cent think the government “too secretive” on boat arrivals, compared with 36% who disagree. The splits are 86-10 among Labor and 31-63 among LNP supporters.

• Forty-two per cent still feel the government has not done enough to stop asylum seekers, compared with 43% who say it has done enough. The high “not enough” rating seems in large part down to reflexively negative responses from Labor supporters, who split 55% to 28%, while LNP supporters split 33% to 58%.

• Fifty-two per cent say the new government has met expectations, 6% say it has been better, and 36% say it hasn’t been as good (74-9-14 among LNP supporters, 34-3-56 for Labor supporters).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,296 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. [ On the other hand, Howard’s agnostiscism, his ‘gut instinct’ and Abbott’s ‘climate science is crap’ will increasingly look like what it is: gross negligence. ]

    I wonder at what point it would cross the line into criminal negligence?

  2. Heard Glasson on ABC Newsradio – yet to be but likely to be Abbott’s hand-picked man in the up-coming by-election in Qld – showing faux concern about the ‘cost’ of the by-election and ‘voter anger’ about having to have another election “over the Christmas period”.

    When asked about the “issues” the best he could come up with was “cost of living” and “red tape” – like, all the things that a Federal government can fix.

    The best line was “It will take some time to turn the economy around/fix”.

    So much for the ‘budget crisis’.

    His biggest whinge was that Rudd hah not actually resigned yet and this was providing ‘uncertainty’. He was particularly miffed by the fact he might have to rearrange his practice again.

    Meanwhile, in the real world, over 200,000 jobs at risk as the government looks set to dump assistance to the likes of Holden.

    And just before the election, due to a tax manipulation a few jobs were at risk in the car leasing business which, when flogged to death seemed like the death of the whole leasing industry.

    What a mob of shonks.

  6. [‘voter anger’ about having to have another election “over the Christmas period”.]

    Antony Green has said previously that the by-election will most likely be in February.

  7. Carey M and AA

    Don’t think you will hear from baby sean whenever I ask him the question see comment 88 , it crawls away as fast as it can 😀

  8. Carey Moore

    Posted Monday, November 18, 2013 at 9:12 am | Permalink

    I am not trying to start an argument here. If what ST said is true then it’s a new development but I’d like to see a reliable source back it up (and I googled last night trying to find something)
    ===========================================

    I’ve also looked and couldn’t find anything

  11. The job massacres in the ACT are in full swing now. Just in time for Christmas. Where are all the politicians form both sides wringing their hands about the impact on individuals lives, their families and paying off their mortgages?

    ACT people are just like everyone else – when they are sacked, they bleed.

  12. One third of ALP Voters and almost two thirds of all voters think the ALP should not block termination of the CO2 Tax in the Senate.

    Shorten’s clearly got his finger on the pulse. Clearly on a winner.

    Already looking like he’ll be worse than Rudd or Gillard.

  15. Boerwar

    Posted Monday, November 18, 2013 at 9:33 am | Permalink

    The job massacres in the ACT are in full swing now. Just in time for Christmas. Where are all the politicians form both sides wringing their hands about the impact on individuals lives, their families and paying off their mortgages?

    ACT people are just like everyone else – when they are sacked, they bleed.
    ======================================

    There certainly was a lot of hand wringing and ranting from one side of politics over reported jobs losses due to the stopping of rorts of the FBT.

    Shame they don’t have the same “feelings” and care for public servants

  16. Okay it appears Labor did a lot of talking(as they always do) about handing over navy boats to Sri Lanka, but a Coalition government actually took action(as they always do)

    The Labor Talk the Talk, Coalition Walk the Walk

  17. guytaur@114

    As reported in your link

    [Dr White said it would take five to eight years to run trials, but it was hoped the system would be ready to operate commercially by 2018.]

    Surely they jest

  20. [Morrison was on AM Agenda just now, defending the Sri Lankan Government’s right to torture, rape and murder.

    Nice.]

    But the lefties keep telling us we have to respect other countries sovereignty….

  23. [But the lefties keep telling us we have to respect other countries sovereignty….]

    sovereignty yes, war crimes and crimes against humanity not so much – but it is an easy mistake for a stupid PM to make.

  24. “@danielhurstbne: At infra #estimates hearing Sinodinos defends axing urban public transport finding, saying extra road $ frees up state $ for PT. #auspol”

  25. Because you’re all dying to know this kind of stuff, I took the costs of all the by-elections of the last 10 years (I should’ve done it back to 1984 but I don’t have that much time and adjusted them for inflation and worked out the mean average. It’s around $800,000 per by-election.

    Make of that what you will but bear in mind that, while it may seem excessive, this is in a country that has a budget of around $40 billion.

  29. About Julia Gillard, Labor and those patrol boats, because you can’t come in here, make stuff up and expect to get away with it.

    Back in 2010 Julia Gillard announced extra help to our regional partners to help deal with people smuggling. That aid included extra patrol boats (ours, working with Indonesia, not gifts) and other aid to help Indonesia detect and deal with people smugglers. In other words, increased co-operation between us and Indonesia, which we had and which worked well until Abbott ruined the relationship.

    And –
    Some land based policing and surveillance equipment for Sri Lanka and other countries.

    http://pmtranscripts.dpmc.gov.au/preview.php?did=17366

    And here, for the date, although the link to the press release no longer works.
    http://www.parishpatience.com.au/nl85.pdf

    it took a lot of digging to find this and to find confirmation of the date. There is no mention anywhere at all of any Labor plans or signed contracts to hand over patrol boats to Sri Lanka and no record of any discussion of such a thing ever happening.

  30. Tony Abbott says no to Commonwealth climate change fund

    The prime minister, Tony Abbott, has rejected a call by fellow Commonwealth leaders to set up a new climate fund to help poor nations
    ====================================

    What an international embarrassment. Getting to the point that when overseas you would never admit to being Australian.

    What this does is provide further evidence that Abbott does not intend to do anything “real” about addressing climate change.

  36. @megstuart: @SimonSheikh @attardmon Bruce Haig says giving patrol boats to Sri Lanka is like providing armoured cars to South Africa during apartheid.

  37. I have a theory about baby sean, notice never replies, just posts crap,I think it is a robot set up in LNP headquarters programmed to spit out idiotic comments at selected times 😀
    Therefore will be ignoring it in future as robots can’t read as yet, suggest other PBers do same

  38. [Environment bureaucrats are deeply worried about their ability to develop a “working relationship” with their minister, so concerned they have refused a freedom of information request on the ground it could “complicate” the relationship.]

    Abbott might find some disgruntled person may drop something off the back of a bus before long.

  39. deblonay

    I have just logged on and saw this:

    [If as The Guardian claims the Pope is about to publish an encyclical on the enviroonment and climate change are true …how will such a statement…. which will arouse much debate and controversy..effect Abbott’s position on the subject and also that of other catholics in the coaliition like Hockey and Joyce and Andrews]

    This Pope is going to be a reformer I have a lot of faith in him taking on lots of issues.

    As you know he is a Jesuit and Jesuits work for the common good. They are both compassionate and highly intelligent. His taking of the name Pope Francis the First tells us he will work for the common good and be a man of the people.

    Thanks for that I think he will do great and very different things.

    Abbott can go jump!

  41. Some disgruntled public servants angry at being sacked by Abbott may well decide to drop a lot of things of the back of a bus soon. Here’s hoping.

  42. Abbott: A craven and weak PM. I seriously doubt Howard would ever have stooped this low. He had a better sense of Australia’s power vis a vis tinpot human rights abusers in the region.

    To have the Sri Lankan President thank Abbott for the cover he provided on human rights abuses is sick-making.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/a-craven-tony-abbotts-refusal-to-discuss-human-rights-in-sri-lanka-cheapened-the-commonwealth-20131118-2xpmh.html

  44. Pajamas

    I’m not saying there are not many mental illnesses which quality for DSP. I’m saying there is no blood test or X-RAY etc which provides a diagnosis. Obviously someone with schizophrenia qualifies but what about stress from work? What objective measures can you use?

  45. @135

    guytaurs posted link has a good quote in it-

    [The very phrase ‘human rights’ became for all concerned — victims, persecutors, and onlookers alike — the evidence of hopeless idealism or fumbling feeble-minded hypocrisy]

    Hannah Arendt

    Not sure of the exact date.

  47. More Gillard v Rudd stuff.

    [“The idea that the plot to unseat Kevin Rudd was only developed on the Wednesday is clearly untrue,” concludes Carr…
    Martin Ferguson says she first approached him to test his support on Sunday, June 20, 2010, three days before her challenge to Rudd. They shared a VIP flight from Melbourne to Canberra…
    “All the way from Melbourne to Canberra, she tried to inveigle me into her plan,” says Ferguson, then the minister for resources and energy in the Rudd Cabinet… “She said, ‘If you could see the polling you would see how much trouble we’re in’.”]

  48. leone

    Excellent work

    Mtbw

    Abbott, hockey and others in the coalition were educafed in Jesuit schools. How come they did not get the meme?

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