Galaxy: 56-44 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A new Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland chimes with the general picture elsewhere in finding little change on the election result.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research poll): The latest Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is unchanged on last week with the Coalition on 44%, Labor on 35% and the Greens on 9%, with the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. The poll finds only 28% rating the new government’s handling of asylum seekers as good versus 40% for poor; 65% considering a budget surplus important for the country versus 27% for not important, which becomes 52% and 38% when framed as important to the respondent personally; 12% thinking the government will probably deliver a surplus in its first year versus 68% who think it probably won’t; and 37% thinking it will do so within three years, in line with its promise, against 40% who think it won’t. Also featured are questions on issues of concern and the best party to handle them, which show across-the-board improvement for the Coalition since immediately before the election, reduced concern about the budget surplus (presumably because Coalition supporters have become less inclined to nominate it as a problem) and increased concern about interest rates.

UPDATE (Morgan poll): The fortnightly Morgan multi-mode poll has the Coalition up a point to 42.5%, Labor down 2.5% to 32.5%, the Greens up half a point to 11% and the Palmer United Party down half a point to 5%. The respondent-allocated two-party preferred moves from 50-50 to 51-49 in favour of the Coalition.

The Courier-Mail has today reported findings on federal voting intention from the Queensland poll for which state voting intention results appeared yesterday. The Coalition holds a two-party preferred lead of 56-44, which compares with what will probably be about 57-43 once two-party figures from Kennedy and Fairfax are finally included in the Australian Electoral Commission’s statewide election result. Primary votes from the poll are 46% for the Liberal National Party (45.7% at the election), 30% for Labor (29.8%), 8% for the Palmer United Party (11.0%), 7% for the Greens (6.2%), 3% for Katter’s Australian Party (3.7%) and 6% for others (3.6%). Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail wisely notes that the missing Palmer United Party support “might not have disappeared altogether, as it appears to have gone to the ‘others’”, which is up from 3.6% to 6%. The poll was conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 800. Also featured:

• Sixty-three per cent of respondents, including 32% of Labor and 89% of LNP supporters, oppose Labor holding up the carbon tax abolition bills in the Senate. Twenty-nine per cent are in favour, including 59% of Labor and 6% of LNP supporters.

• Fifty-nine per cent think the government “too secretive” on boat arrivals, compared with 36% who disagree. The splits are 86-10 among Labor and 31-63 among LNP supporters.

• Forty-two per cent still feel the government has not done enough to stop asylum seekers, compared with 43% who say it has done enough. The high “not enough” rating seems in large part down to reflexively negative responses from Labor supporters, who split 55% to 28%, while LNP supporters split 33% to 58%.

• Fifty-two per cent say the new government has met expectations, 6% say it has been better, and 36% say it hasn’t been as good (74-9-14 among LNP supporters, 34-3-56 for Labor supporters).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,296 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  2. @Tom/45

    Yup, correct, I just did included ACT and Tasmania as states.

    Also in regards to PM wage, that’s about 28 Pensioners pay per year at $17,000 per year, and probably similar amount for low-paid workers.

  3. The Fairfax sites have just put up the 2nd part of Hartcher’s analysis of Rudd/Gillard. It begins:

    Kevin Rudd’s inner circle expected him to begin the new year in 2010 by going on the offensive, announcing an early election to fight Tony Abbott for his carbon emissions scheme. Instead, he announced he’d written a children’s book.

    The sense of anticlimax was acute as Rudd revealed he’d co-authored with actor Rhys Muldoon a book about the misadventures of the prime ministerial cat and dog, Jasper and Abby and the Great Australia Day Kerfuffle.

  4. If as The Guardian claims the Pope is about to publish an encyclical on the enviroonment and climate change are true …how will such a statement…. which will arouse much debate and controversy..effect Abbott’s position on the subject and also that of other catholics in the coaliition like Hockey and Joyce and Andrews

  7. Well. Absolutely no point trying to glimpse the Leonid meteor showers tonight. What isn’t covered by cloud is burned off by a full moon.

    Not happy Jan!

  8. Hartcher’s Rudd Mk II article was up this morning.

    Notable in it is the extent to which Rudd faffed about on the ETS. But really, who cares? Rudd is now gone.

  10. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    We should be proud of our leaders when they go overseas. Instead , we get this.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/patrol-boat-diplomacy-20131117-2xp56.html
    Yuk!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/peter-versi-child-sex-abuse-survivor-speaks-out-against-legal-system-skewed-to-rich-20131117-2xp8c.html
    Here we go!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/childcare-inquiry-to-focus-on-support-for-nannies-20131117-2xp4y.html
    And even more.
    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/15/australias-environment-laws-suffering-death-by-thousand-cuts
    Lead story in The Guardian. Barely seen in the OM.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/17/climate-rallies-draw-thousands
    Passive resistance?
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victorias-schools-still-waiting-for-gonski-funds-20131117-2xp8a.html
    And not before time!
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/travel/travel-news/accc-to-crack-down-on-extra-flight-booking-fees/story-fnjjv9zj-1226762048513
    Michael Egan pours scorn on Morriscum.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/call-on-newborn-shows-no-milk-of-human-kindness-20131117-2xp24.html

  11. Section 2 . . .

    Andrew Dyson with an Abbott statue.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    David Rowe returns to his often used nautical theme. Note the two eypatches.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Cathy Wilcox o the minimum wage.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    Ron Tandberg still at it with pollie rorts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  12. And from the Land of the Free –

    Justice Alabama style.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/11/17/disturbing-sentencing-news-alabama/
    Some cartoons on the Repugs and food stamps.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/11/17/cartoons-day-gop-destroying-food-stamps/
    Rachael Maddow analyses GOP cruelty and obstruction.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/11/16/video-anthology-gopcruelty/
    Similar Christian values to those held by Morriscum?
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/11/16/heres-tip-tip-grow/
    Chris Hayes has had enough of the crap surrounding the introduction of ObamaCare.
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/hayes-only-way-out-through

  13. Re Just Me @ : Key details of the Government’s 2013 disability support pension report, exclusively obtained by The Sunday Mail, shows that just in the past financial year alone, $15 billion was paid out to almost 821,738 recipients – a 22 per cent increase in 10 years (673,334).

    I’m always very suspicious of any statistics quoted that use absolute numbers. When we are comparing population statistics at different dates, it’s normally per capita that matters.

    So while the absolute number of disability pensioners has increased by 22% since 2002, the population of Australia has increased by about 17% in the same period, so the number of disability pensioners as a proportion of the population has increased by about 4%. If you want to compare apples with apples, that’s the number they should be using. Further, given that the population is aging, an increase would be expected. A detailed analysis could reveal whether or not a 4% increase is consistent with the changes to the age profile of the population during that period.

  14. Morning all. Thanks for the links BK. the climate ction rally is also well covered in the Age, less so in the SMH. This is understandable given the different size of the rallies, thanks to rain in Sydney.

  18. Re some discussion here last night – I just heard Tony Abbott in an interview at CHOGM saying words to the effect that “there are few humanitarian issues more important than the flow of asylum boats…”, so not quite “there is no more important issue” but still an assinine comment in a region full with so many humanitarian issues.

  20. Labor paid a heavy price for faffing around on anti-global warming action.

    Shorten is on firm ground taking a principled stand. The science is right. Time is on Shorten’s side. Worryingly, so is our warming climate.

    On the other hand, Howard’s agnostiscism, his ‘gut instinct’ and Abbott’s ‘climate science is crap’ will increasingly look like what it is: gross negligence.

  21. In 1996 the number of Australians on DSP was about 630,000 when Howard departed i believe the number was about 750,000 in effect under Howard 120,000 were placed on it compared to about 70,000 during the past six years.

    Howard and Merit Andrews were all talk about the disabled and their fearsome outrage at rorts yet they never did anything.

    The previously government made an effort particularly in skills.

  25. Kevin Rudd’s likely delay in making his resignation official until the end of this week will stymie any attempt to hold the Griffith by-election before Christmas.

  28. Some handy facts about Sri Lanka and its navy.
    Sri Lanka is smaller than Tasmania. Its area is 65,610 square kiilometres (Tasmania 68,401 square kilometres) and it has a coastline 1340 kilometres long (Tasmania 2388 kilometres).

    Sri Lanka has a navy whose role is ‘to conduct operations at sea for the defence of the nation and its interests.’
    http://www.navy.lk/index.php?id=3

    The Sri Lankan navy has a fleet of more than fifty combat and support vessels – to defend an island smaller than Tasmania.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sri_Lanka_Navy

    The Australian navy has 53 vessels, not all of them are combat vessels. That figure includes inflatables and the Admiral’s barge.
    http://www.navy.gov.au/fleet/ships-boats-craft

    So why the frack are we giving this modern, well-equipped navy two worn-out, rusting old hulks and what’s more, why are we spending $2 million repairing them so they won’t sink on the way there?

  29. Socrates from your link:

    [Senator Scullion has been critical of the way the RJCP was implemented,…]

    Actually, Scullion castigated the RJCP mercilessly.

    Let us hope that now he ‘owns’ the RJCP, the Government sticks with it and does not discard it in the name of savings. It is far more worthy Government investment than gifting the wealthy with $300 million in superannuation, which was one of their first priorities. That said, it is good that Scullion is getting out and about with Indigenous people.

    To date the Government record on Indigenous issues has been to:

    (1) start dismantling the race hate law
    (2) take money from Indigenous organisations
    (3) give money to non-Indigenous individuals who are fighting land rights cases in the courts
    (4) for Scullion to change his tune on the RJCP
    (5) appoint the highly-divisie Mundine as chair of the hand-picked and non-representative Indigenous Advisory Council
    (6) appoint Tudge to review on the Direct Instruction Model. Tudge earned his emolument before he even started the review – the DI model was a success, in his humble opinion.

  30. leone

    The size and the composition of the Sri Lankan navy accurately reflects that the Tamil Tigers were being very actively re-supplied across Palk Strait from by Tamils in Tamil Nadu, with at the very least the passive connivance over time by Indian governments.

  31. Further to last night’s discussion of the DSP:

    1. People once again have assumed that the unemployment figure is somehow related to the number of people claiming benefits. It isn’t; it is calculated using a pool of people, who are asked, firstly, if they are employed and secondly, if they’re not, if they are looking for work.

    Most people on the DSP I know would answer ‘yes’ to the second question, and thus be counted as ‘unemployed’.

    There will be a handful of DSP recipients who haven’t been bothered looking for work because they’ve given up on the idea that they’re employable. So any rise in the unemployment figures would be minor.

    2. I’m dubious about the claims this will save the government money. It will only do this if there are jobs out there those presently on DSP are capable of doing. If there aren’t, moving someone from the DSP to Newstart hasn’t achieved anything (except a jump in the long term unemployment figures, which aren’t a good look for any government, and is the real reason Howard encouraged uptake of DSPs).

    I was classed as temporarily disabled because of my hip. I technically could work, but I pointed out to Centrelink that it was a bit fruitless asking me to apply for jobs, when I would turn up at the interview obviously unable to walk and would have to flag that I’d be taking extended leave sometime in the future to recover from an operation.

    Being classified as disabled (in my case) saved the government money, because they didn’t have to refer me to a job agency or schedule regular Centrelink appointments for me.

    So, assuming that most permanently disabled people (a) are recognisably unsuitable for permanent work and (b) will be obliged to attend regular job seeker interveiws with their job network and Centrelink, moving them from the DSP to Newstart will cost the government money, not save it.

  33. The rumoured papal encyclical on climate chgange is just that, a rumour, started by stuff like this –
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/11/14/1255352/-Pope-Francis-may-be-working-on-an-environmental-encyclical

    It’s already been done.

    In 2009 Pope Benedict published an encyclical which devoted a chapter to ‘the development of people, rights and duties, the environment’, saying ‘The environment is God’s gift to everyone, and in our use of it we have a responsibility towards the poor, towards future generations and towards humanity as a whole.”
    http://txipl.org/encyclical2009

    This set out the Church’s position on the environment and climate change.
    [“The Church has a responsibility towards creation and she must assert this responsibility in the public sphere. In so doing, she must defend not only earth, water and air as gifts of creation that belong to everyone. She must above all protect mankind from self-destruction…the ecological system is based on respect for a plan that affects both the health of society and its good relationship with nature.”]

    It’s worth noting that Cardinal Pell’s views on climate change are not the views of the Vatican or the Pope. He is very much taking the opposite view.

  35. I’m confused.

    Are Labor for or against giving SL some navy boats.. and if they are against it, why did Labor write out and sign the contract when they were in power?

  38. Ahhh baby sean

    Still waiting for an answer to my question 3rd time put to you “Was it you posting on Menzies House site on gay rights”?

  40. “@NickRossTech: Wouldn’t that that mean that the Coalition’s #NBN alternative is already more delayed than the current policy?”

  45. Manufacturer Holden is refusing to send a delegation to Canberra

    Holden has withdrawn further from communication with the federal government.

    A delegation of car industry workers and union officials will arrive in Canberra for talks with government officials on Tuesday without representatives from the Holden factory floor.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/manufacturer-holden-is-refusing-to-send-a-delegation-to-canberra-to-discuss-the-future-of-the-car-industry-in-australia-20131117-2xp57.html#ixzz2kwXyJaSC

  46. [Are Labor for or against giving SL some navy boats.. and if they are against it, why did Labor write out and sign the contract when they were in power?]

    Once again, do you have a source to back that up? Because I have not seen that mentioned anywhere else.

  47. When we talk about people on DSP finding work let’s not forget that there are tens of thousands who will never be able to do any sort of work at all. People with physical and/or intellectual disabilities so severe, and with such high support needs that they cannot work. This gets overlooked. We assume, because governments push the view, that people on DSP are there because they have had some sort of illness or accident and simply need a bit of rehab and a willing employer to get them back into the workforce. If only it could be that simple.

    I can tell many stories of people who may be non-verbal, unable to look after their own most basic functions, cannot move more than their hands, are confined to wheelchairs and so on, who have been asked to attend interviews at Centrelink with the plan being to get them into work. The families and carers of these people get a bit fed up with having to respond to this rubbish.

    Here’s an example – this one from the Howard era.
    I know a woman who was contacted by someone from Centrelink who said they had spoken to the son on the phone and he had an appointment. This young man was then about 25 years old. He is non-verbal and has some very challenging behaviour issues, among a lot of other physical and intellectual problems. There is no way he could have handled a phone interview. However, he was taken to the appointment. His mother said to whoever was supposed to do the interview ‘I’ll leave you to it’. The reaction was ‘But…but..’ to which she replied ‘You said you spoke to him on the phone so you should have no problems dealing with him face to face’ and left. Of course, she returned after only a few minutes.

  49. @NickRossTech: I’m not an ‘I told you so person’ but… Coalition’s FttN network unlikely to start rolling out before 2015 http://t.co/4vmHcPqgkl #NBN

    But Tony promised EVERYONE in Australia would have a minimum of 25 mbps download speed by the end of his first term. I heard him say that. Would that then make Abbott a LIAR???

  50. I am not trying to start an argument here. If what ST said is true then it’s a new development but I’d like to see a reliable source back it up (and I googled last night trying to find something)

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