BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition

Meet the new BludgerTrack, same as the old BludgerTrack. Also featured: a quick squizz at the Australian Electoral Commission’s petition calling for the High Court to declare void the Western Australian Senate election result.

The BludgerTrack aggregate is updated this week with Essential Research and Morgan, plus Galaxy with respect to the Queensland result (see full results on the sidebar). None of these results has made a noticeable difference, with two-party preferred and the seat projection entirely unchanged on last week. The one exception is that the Palmer United Party is now being granted a smaller share of the “others” vote, which is down to a relatively weak result in the Morgan poll. Since Morgan and ReachTEL are the only pollsters specifically publishing results for the PUP, the aggregate is highly sensitive to individual results on this measure.

Another point worth raising is that Morgan seem to have dropped the online element from their “multi-mode” polling, which leaves the face-to-face and SMS components and results in sample sizes of about 2000 rather than 3000. Kevin Bonham is excluding Morgan from his poll aggregate on the grounds that the change might be causing the series to lean more to Labor than it used to, given the long-evident Labor bias on the face-to-face only polling which Morgan used to run. Nonetheless, I am continuing to use bias adjustments for Morgan based on the earlier multi-mode series, which might be introducing a slight pro-Labor bias to the model. This will be accounted for when enough poll results are available to meaningfully determine the series’ deviation from the other pollsters.

There should be a bit more polling activity to take care of with next week’s update, with the fortnightly Newspoll due on Sunday or Monday evening and, I believe, a ReachTEL national poll to be conducted for the Seven Network this coming Friday (UPDATE: See bottom of post).

In other news, two developments in the Western Australian Senate election saga: the Australian Electoral Commission has filed a petition with the High Court calling on it to have the result declared void, which has helpfully been put online by technology issues website Delimiter, and officials from the AEC have appeared before Senate estimates to face the music on this and other matters. The key point in the petition is the Electoral Act’s requirement that once a recount is directed by the relevant authority, it must proceed through “a re-count of the ballot papers”. The AEC contends that in the known absence of 1370 ballot papers that this cannot be said to have occurred, and that the matter cannot be remedied by instating non-recounted results from the affected polling booths. The error further clears the statutory hurdle of having been likely to have affected the result, or at least that such a consequence cannot be excluded.

UPDATE: Channel Seven reports a ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted overnight found 53% saying the Prime Minister should deliver the explanation for spying activities demanded by Indonesia, while 34% say he shouldn’t; and 38% support Australia’s bugging activities with 39% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,846 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Coalition”

Comments Page 37 of 37
1 36 37
  1. Yes I would’ve liked to see Labor/Shorten put the boot right into Abbott.

    Abbott is in a position of weakness right now over this spying incident. Great time to attack before another of many opportunities are missed.

  2. Labor need to be careful” Shorten should stand back and play the statesman until the right moment occurs when he can let rip. In the meantime let the LNP continue to score own goals. This is a long game

  3. Ducky

    Then fan the flames. Or tip a little petrol on yourself. Or stop the firies putting out the flames.

    The best time to kick your opponent is when he is down, and you keep kicking him every time he looks like getting up.

    Well, that’s what my hoodlum patients tell me anyway.

  4. [1792…swamprat]

    This is practically Grecian in its elegance. Abbott’s display of false modesty led him to suppose he had the better of SBY, yet his o’er weening pride was there for all to see and be equally appalled by.

    Not many days have passed and SBY has been able to repay disdain with scorn. Abbott is being rewarded for his bad faith and easy arrogance. It is delicious. And yet, of course it is also serious. The country will suffer for Abbott’s vanity and stupidity.

  5. Regardless of what happens now, there are still basically 3 years left until the next election.

    If Shorten is focused on the next election then it’s a marathon not a sprint.

    Beazley’s situation with the Tampa was a little different – an election was imminent then, it isn’t now.

    One of the biggest jobs Labor has to do is to really be the adults in the room. Leadershit caused the public to feel contemptuous of the ALP. Steady, sure, stable is what the ALP needs to be now.

    There will be time for being political attack dogs, but for the time being they need to be statesmen and women.

    I have no great faith in Shorten – he has baggage, he has had a lot of moments where he has been unprepared/unsuitable in his presentation to the media and there is a big question mark in my mind as to whether he can look awake and interested enough to be a successful leader. However, winning elections is a long term thing, not “winning the week” (although, obviously, winning enough weeks is a good start), so I don’t think Shorten deserves the criticism he has been receiving from some here.


  6. So I go to Margs for the day and return to see the GG anticipating the abolition of her position.

    Paves the way for the incumbent govt to recommend a strident monarchist as her replacement.

  7. I think Shorten needs something to point at more than the reality that Abbott is a total fool. He was a total fool when we elected him so that isn’t something to change peoples mind.

    An increase in boats, Indo suspending beef imports, Indo cancelling invitations for Australian fools like Joyce (it was reported as him deciding not to travel I have no idea if they suggested he should stay home or not) then Shorten should make some pointed observations about how important the relationship is, how Abbott promised to improve it, how unlike Abbott and Bishop in opposition he did all he could to avoid making things worse and still Abbott f*cted it up like only a total idiot could.

    I’m very aware nothing bad may flow from Abbott’s idiocy but in that event Shorten is even more wise to keep out of the fire.

    I don’t like Shorten and there are about 5 caucus members I’d prefer as leader, and i expect him to do many many stupid things, but I am pretty sure so far this isn’t one of them.

  8. I’m guessing that we are begging to see just why Messrs Oakshote and Windsor gave Abbott a wide berth back in the wash up of the 2010 election.

  9. Every time Gillard screwed up, I was told by people here not to worry as she was playing the long game.

    That didn’t reassure me then and it’s not reassuring me now.

  10. Centre

    Posted Friday, November 22, 2013 at 11:21 pm | Permalink


    Good advice, to beat Abbott you got to fight like Abbott. I bet he can’t handle returned hits.

    He’s a bully and a thug…of course he can’t handle returned hits.

    They are always gutless and weak inside

  11. @Jackol/1812

    Abbott has more baggage than Shorten has, i.e. dumped Turnbull, Bishop, Morrison, and also Abbott’s past as minister in Howard’s cabinet.

  12. [1815

    So I go to Margs for the day and return to see the GG anticipating the abolition of her position.]

    Many fine prospects, as they say… 🙂

  13. Rossmore

    [Labor need to be careful” Shorten should stand back and play the statesman until the right moment occurs when he can let rip. In the meantime let the LNP continue to score own goals. This is a long game.]

    I hope you are right but one wonders whether the ALP, particularly the dominant right, would recognise the right moment or would be able to “let rip”.

    I suspect the message will be lost in acres of clause, sub-clauses and sub-sub clauses.

    The Americanised population only seems to understand three word slogans, and only if they are short words.

  14. briefly:

    I hear what you said this morning about Labor in terms of this massive cock up by Abbott with our Indonesian partners, but still think Labor have let the govt off the hook trying to play all too nice and bipartisan.

    They don’t have to be the example. The Liberals are in govt now.

  15. Diog. ….. Remember, there is still much to come from the Snowden files, Shorten will be aware of the potential booby traps … Thats why this is a long game…

  16. A decent QT attack yesterday would have left Mr Abbott with no choice but to defenestrate Mr Textor. That would have been a tremendous blow to strike. It would have shown Mr Abbott as no longer dominating events. Never under-estimate the significance for a government of the first enforced sacking or resignation. Watergate really took off when Nixon was forced to cut Haldemann and Ehrlichman loose.

  17. [That didn’t reassure me then and it’s not reassuring me now.]

    You make an excellent point, if she was actually doing a long game it was too subtle for voters and ultimately caucus.

  18. [1823….confessions]

    I would like to see Abbott squirming in dire agony too, but I think it’s very early days. As a consequence of these recent events, from now until the next election every time a boat arrives voters will be reminded that Abbott had his chance and blew it. If our trade suffers, if the Indonesian election result is negative for Australia, Abbott will be seen as the albatross around our collective foreign relations neck.

    But (imo) this takes patience: Labor cannot be seen to be wishing ill for Abbott if this also means it may be seen (or be able to be depicted) as wishing ill for the country. Abbott is a time bomb waiting to self-detonate. He has exploded our relations with Indonesia. He is very likely to do the same on other key issues – the environment, the budget, employment and the economy. Labor can wait for its best opportunities: Abbott will provide a wealth of them.

  19. [1612

    This is just the start of his problems…


    – showing his hand on FTA to China]

    One of the dumber things I have seen a leader do.

  20. Pugilist Abbott has found himself in the ring against SBY, who clearly who floats like a butterfly and stings like a bee. Good material for George Bludger, methinks…

  21. [As a consequence of these recent events, from now until the next election every time a boat arrives voters will be reminded that Abbott had his chance and blew it. ]

    Can’t see that happening. They’re the govt, they set the scene, as they’ve been happily doing sans scrutiny for months now, even as they’ve turned the tables and now only do secret squirrel info. Where are those media outlets who only months ago were screaming blue murder when Labor proposed measly quasi-regulation of the industry?

  22. [bemused
    Posted Friday, November 22, 2013 at 5:33 pm | PERMALINK
    I wonder who’s idea to put the Age Retirement up, me thinks it’s the liberals, because it will save $36 billion.
    The Productivity Commission has suggested it and the Libs have run away from it.

    I commented before wtte that I liked the idea, provided they at first fix up the issue of employment for over 50s.

    We simply cannot retain the present retirement age while life spans continue to increase. It will just be unaffordable at some point.]

    You’re right, which is why it’s so criminally stupid to cut research budgets. What we should be doing is not just extending life itself, but improving the quality of life in later years. It makes me so mad.

  23. [1832…confessions]

    We will soon see.

    On media regulation, the previous Government had entirely the wrong approach. The point is to break up the print monopoly held by Murdoch. So the method should have been to limit their hold – measured by share of advertising income – in any one market and in the national market too, and require divestment. This would break News Corp into many smaller units, independently-owned and prevented from sharing editorial content. That would have brought diversity to the market. Too late now. Conroy’s scheme was never going to get off the ground.

  24. Abbott said some wise things in amongs the (many) “unfortunate” clangers.

    Bill Shorten is termiting hi.

    SBY is full of himself, and Abbott has a chance to turn the whole sorry mess into a famous triumph…

    … if only he follows Peter Hartcher’s toadying advice.

    Hartcher, desperate to get back as an insider after the debacle of supporting Rudd, has transferred his man-love to Tony Abbott.

    I fear Tony is not listening.

  25. Not entirely sure why I’m bothering, but anyway…

    Sean, an experienced Liberal strategist and insider like Textor would amost certainly be a dues-paying member. He’s not just some a pollster who works for the Libs, he’s a powerful and influential figure within the party – a “faceless man”* like, say, Paul Howes. The Indonesian government – being, you know, politicians themselves – would be well aware the sort of relationship a person like Textor has with his party.

    * It strikes me that “faceless men” is a pretty innacurate descriptor of such party insiders… on Labor’s side, at least, they tend to have a frustrating tendency to be media tarts who just love to tell all and sundry about their shady backroom antics. But I guess “Unelected but powerful party members and staffers” doesn’t quite have the same ring to it.

  26. Looks like Abbott has finally run out of people to cover his arse and bail him out, and for the first time in his life he actually has to start answering to the real consequences of his own choices, behaviour, and inadequacies.

    “No surprises, no excuses.”

    Seemed like a cute little campaign slogan at the time, hey Tones?

    Perhaps not so clever in hindsight.

    More likely to be your irony-drenched political epitaph.

  27. Do not believe Shorten should do anything to take the domestic or International attention off abbott, When HoR sits next Month,is the time to make Political Capital off him.

    Would seem many more blunders will eventuate before the next house sitting

  28. [Boerwar
    Posted Friday, November 22, 2013 at 8:21 pm | Permalink

    Nemspy mentioned he had a couple of good mates on the Conquistador or whatever it is called. When we asked him to come forth with some details he went to earth, our very own Bludger Smiley.]

    To bed, not to earth.

    Just catching up with posts now.

  29. [Boerwar
    Posted Thursday, November 21, 2013 at 8:47 pm | Permalink


    I have a couple of good mates on board!

    What do they say? Without trying to get them in hot water for breaking the Official Secrets Act. Seriously.]


    It’s a dicey area. They don’t tell me anything about their work except stuff that doesn’t fall under the OSA. I can ask when they get back to port; however, if I’m not allowed to know I won’t be told.

    The whole thing is pretty serious business. I’ve had to be a character witness a couple of times for security clearance. I remember the first time, it was about 1:15 in the afternoon and I was a university student who worked nights. There was a knock at the door. I staggered out of bed, down the hall in an old pair of tracksuit pants with the elastic totally shot so I had to hold them up, one sock, and no shirt. Standing at the door was an important-looking official to interview me about my mates security clearance. lol. Must have been a great impression.

  30. does anyone else think SBY et al are stringing Abbott out, that they want to inflict max orchestrated damage even see him gone, that they disrespect him as much as many australians, that campaign in indonesia against abbott is all orchestrated. the subject might not go away until it is truly over.

Comments Page 37 of 37
1 36 37

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *