Morgan published its fortnightly poll yesterday, which for whatever reason was limited to face-to-face and SMS polling, excluding its usual online component. This caused the sample size to come in at 2077, about 1000 short of the usual. The preponderance of face-to-face polling in the result might help explain the poll’s unusually weak showing for the Coalition, who are down two points on the primary vote to 41.5%. Labor and the Greens are each up half a point, to 35% and 10.5%, with the Palmer United Party up a point to 5.5%. The only meaningful two-party figure provided by Morgan is respondent-allocated, which at 50-50 is much as it would have been with a preference distribution based on the recent election.
An aberrant poll result marks an auspicious occasion for BludgerTrack to return to the sidebar, fresh from its almost-accurate projection of state seat totals at the federal election. Bias and accuracy measures have been freshly recalibrated, and a preference allocation model implemented which accounts for the Palmer United Party’s share of the “others” vote. There are currently only 14 polling data points in the mix (and only five with specific numbers for the Palmer United Party), including eight from Essential, four from Morgan and one each from Newspoll and ReachTEL. This is to say there is a paucity of live interview phone polling, which was again the best performing method at the election. At present the trend seems to be one of stability in the first month and Labor decline in the second, but the disturbance to the stability comes down entirely the Newspoll result.
victoria@1943
He needs some snappy delivery, not over the top but don’t send people to sleep.
Unions bread and butter is negotiation and communication skills – so to get where he was he must have those skills.
Time to let people see them.
victoria
Oh there will be pertinent questions. Canberra Press Gallery tweets have been at a similar level as at the lead up period to Abbott and Pyne running from the House
[This is one big storm.]
iCyclone chasers have reported in and are safe.
A photo
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151872023324597&set=a.403096644596.183425.52553204596&type=1&theater
And another reminder for viewing tomorrow:
[Julia Gillard Keynote Address
The Victorian Women’s Trust proudly announces a special event with former Prime Minister Julia Gillard delivering a keynote address.
The event is scheduled for Sunday afternoon 10 November 2013 at the Melbourne Town Hall, from 2:00 – 4:00 pm. Doors will open to the public from 1:30pm onwards.
Tickets are now sold out for the event but you can watch the live stream by clicking here.]
JG will share the stage with Tony Windsor in a discussion of hung parliaments.
http://vwt.org.au/
@arjevs: RT @TimWattsMP: Scott Morrison is doing a great job of expanding the circulation of the Indonesian press in Australia http://t.co/uPaoHLZ7I5
fess@1953
farkkkkk!
mikeh:
It means communications might be back in Tacloban. From Josh:
[First off, Tacloban City is devastated. The city is a horrid landscape of smashed buildings and completely defoliated trees, with widespread looting and unclaimed bodies decaying in the open air. The typhoon moved fast and didn’t last long– only a few hours– but it struck the city with absolutely terrifying ferocity. At the height of the storm, as the wind rose to a scream, as windows exploded and as our solid-concrete downtown hotel trembled from the impact of flying debris, as pictures blew off the walls and as children became hysterical, a tremendous storm surge swept the entire downtown. Waterfront blocks were reduced to heaps of rubble. In our hotel, trapped first-floor guests smashed the windows of their rooms to keep from drowning and screamed for help, and we had to drop our cameras and pull them out on mattresses and physically carry the elderly and disabled to the second floor. Mark’s leg was ripped open by a piece of debris and he’ll require surgery. The city has no communication with the outside world. The hospitals are overflowing with the critically injured. The surrounding communities are mowed down. After a bleak night in a hot, pitch-black, trashed hotel, James, Mark, and I managed to get out of the city on a military chopper and get to Cebu via a C-130– sitting next to corpses in body bags. Meteorologically, Super Typhoon HAIYAN was fascinating; from a human-interest standpoint, it was utterly ghastly. It’s been difficult to process.]
Faaark indeed.
Psephos@1948
Its interesting to compare that with PNG.
They always thought they would get a better deal from the tories, in particular they liked Peacock.
Yet they have gotten better support and treatment from Labor over the years and when they really needed help.
They thought Gough ‘rushed’ them on Independence, true to a point when Somare as Chief Minister under self Government procrastinated on naming a Independence date.
But Sir John Guise, PNG’s First GG said at midnight on 15 September 1975 – we are lowering the {Australian} Flag, we are not tearing it down.
They utterly detested downer and said “there was no ‘relationship’ with australia during the howard era, because downer would arrive, bully and talk down to us”.
They liked Rudd and in particular Gordon Bilney.
kezza@1954
Further to your post, Julia is establishing herself as a significant spokesperson outside the constraints of Government. I very much doubt Abbott will have anywhere near as much kudos after he gets the boot.
Communications NOT back on in Tacloban. The guys have been airlifted out.
The deal with Iran
____________
The prospect for peace with Iran over the nucleur issue is better than ever
Israel has been excluded and it’s warlike policies are in discard by the US and others
Dark times for Netanyahu..whose hatred of Obama will grow in strength
Take care of your health and safety Mr Presdient …the Israelis might wnat to do an Arafat in you..after all in Palestine they have specialised in targeting killings of leaders for many years
v
We were out working in the garden today (Sydney inner city) & all the plants had black leaves which washed off when we hosed them, the smell was weird until we realised it was wet ash! That shows how badly polluted the city has been by the fires.
A blow to Murdoch
@TelegraphSport: BT Sport claims victory over Sky after paying £900m for rights to show Champions League and Europa League http://t.co/6b9QyQH4xO
Sean Tisme and Deblonay – it’s hard to know which is worse, the idiot right or the idiot left.
So, Indonesian press now reporting that we have had the passengers from 3 boats picked up and NOT taken to Indonesia. Govt has only reported the latest one. This is really not good news for Morriscum. Hopefully the media here will be on this like flies on a cowpat.
Makes the whole turn back the boats thing look a bit sick doesn’t it ST. 🙂
Jackol @1632,
sorry for late reply
[There were (are?) 2 possible outcomes of the September 7th election as far as the WA half-senate result was concerned, either:
* 3 LNP, 1 ALP, 1 Green, 1 Sports, (the declared result of the recount), OR
* 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 PUP (the result of the original count, and maybe the correct result by 1 vote).
So, fundamentally, from a progressive-ish point of view the WA Senate result was about as bad as it was possible to be – maybe rivalled by the SA result.
A new election basically can’t be any worse.
If a new election happens it will be a massive by-election so anything is possible, but it is conceivable that WA could return to a 3/3 result – 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 Green, and that would be an improvement over whatever might have been made of the 7th of September vote.]
Yep, sorry, there are already 3 Liberals – I got confused.
So there can’t be more Liberals as a result of a WA Senate re-election. Now I guess the question is, and I’ll ask this of everyone.
How likely is it we may get 3 LNP, 2 ALP and 1 Green?
Or is it more likely we’d get 3 LNP, 1 ALP, 1 Green, 1 something OR 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 2 somethings?
truthie is ducking for cover, same as the crank.
The other bridge dwellers are tucked up and not coming out.
Without being particularly well informed about the current state of WA politics, I would have though the biggest beneficiary of a WA Senate re-election would be Palmer, and the most likely result therefore either:
3 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 PUP, or
3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 PUP, 1 Green.
cud chewer@1966
Well I can assure you it won’t be 3, 2, 2 as there are only 6 to be elected.
I am hoping for 3 Lib, 2 ALP & 1 Loon.
That would require the ALP and Loons between them to get about 43% of the vote.
I am hoping the electorate will realise it is not a good idea to vote for those even crazier than the Loons.
Phephos 1964
_________
such a critigue from one who was recently in the employ of the most rabid zionist in public life doesn’t worry me
I can quess how you dislike the turn of events in the Middle East …get used to it
Ross Gittins in the Sydney Morning Herald, perspicacious as always: http://www.smh.com.au/business/selfinterest-has-killed-off-any-hope-of-real-reform-20131108-2x73s.html
[Without being particularly well informed about the current state of WA politics, I would have though the biggest beneficiary of a WA Senate re-election would be Palmer]
My view as well. Esp with all 6 seats up for re-election.
You’ve got a fine cheek calling other people crazy, Bemused 🙂
deblonay@1970
Don’t be intimidated deblonay.
Your posts on the ME are interesting but certainly upseting for those who align with the likes of Netenyahu.
Psephos,
[Without being particularly well informed about the current state of WA politics, I would have though the biggest beneficiary of a WA Senate re-election would be Palmer, and the most likely result therefore either:
3 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 PUP, or
3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 PUP, 1 Green.]
Either which I’m not unhappy with because it gives Labor/Green one extra vote in the Senate and therefore it requires only 2 cross bench Senators to block legislation.
Question, why are you so confident in Palmer? Is he able to buy enough first preferences in his own right?
[such a critigue from one who was recently in the employ of the most rabid zionist in public life doesn’t worry me]
If you’re referring to Michael Danby, this shows how deeply ignorant you are. Danby is a moderate Labour Zionist. He favours a two-state solution. That puts him well to the “left” in terms of the spectrum of opinion within the Jewish community. Most of the criticism Danby gets in the Jewish community for his positions on the Middle East are from the right.
Two quotas for the WA Senate election is 28.57% of the vote, some of which could come via preferences from minor parties.
If the ALP cannot get two quotas then it is a pretty pathetic effort and the WA branch deserves some serious scrutiny.
Psephos@1973
Happy to do so to you any day. 😛
bemused,
[Well I can assure you it won’t be 3, 2, 2 as there are only 6 to be elected.
I am hoping for 3 Lib, 2 ALP & 1 Loon.]
Yeah sorry, its not been a good day for arithmetic for me.
I could live with 3 Lib, 2 ALP and 1 Loon.
Would give (I think, Labor and Green 36 votes together) 2 short of being able to block legislation. That’s workable.
And the reason I ask this is I still live in hope of the cross benchers defeating legislation regarding the destruction of the NBN.
If WA does go back to the polls, I would hope that this time the Wikileaks Party get their proverbial together and show Ludlam the proper level of gratitude and respect on their Group Voting Ticket.
Thanks for your comments Bemused
Bemused Your may find this comment on US opinion re the M east of interest
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/public-opinion-and-a-deal-with-iran/
cud chewer@1979
[Question, why are you so confident in Palmer? Is he able to buy enough first preferences in his own right?]
Palmer is probably still on the rise. Right now he’s a winner: he won his seat and he won some other Senate seats. And he hasn’t had a chance to misuse his power yet.
I doubt there’s any chance of a 3 Lib, 2 ALP, 1 Green result. I don’t think the combined centre-left can muster 3 quotas in WA (or anywhere else, probably) while Palmer is soaking up all the floating vote. Labor’s base vote in WA is about 25% and the Greens about 8%. That’s not enough.
I don’t know why people are so upset by Abbott and Morrison. They promised to turn back boats – and they have done it with double efficiency. If a boat is turned back twice it will still get to Australia but the policy will have been implemented brilliantly.
Haiyan hits Tacloban
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ke6ureLcpkk
These weather and climate related records keep being broken, yet we’re supposed to accept that it’s all just normal and there’s nothing to see here.
deblonay@1982
Thanks deblonay.
A pity you defected to the Loons instead of staying with the ALP.
[Sean’s attitude
Why is it always a race thing for the left?
Maybe we are just sick of Indonesia shitting on our doorstep
Does this mean Sean was wrong?? Now I don’t know what to believe any more 🙂
[Australia has given in after Indonesia refused to accept asylum seekers who were rescued two days ago off the coast of Java.
Immigration Minister Scott Morrison has confirmed the group of asylum seekers Australia was attempting to return to Indonesia will now be taken to Christmas Island.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-09/future-of-asylum-seekers-uncertain/5080858
Sympathy about the Phillipines. As I said earlier, they should be mobilising help there now. If we think back to the boxing day tsunami, time is critical for the injured.
[A pity you defected to the Loons instead of staying with the ALP.]
People who believe that Zionist bankers rule the world don’t belong in the ALP.
bemused,
[I hope you appreciate I meant Loon = Green.]
No, I didn’t actually. I was assuming you meant by loon some right wing minor party.
As much as I’d love to see 3LNP, 2ALP, 1GRN, even I will admit that isn’t going to happen.
[Palmer is probably still on the rise. Right now he’s a winner: he won his seat and he won some other Senate seats. And he hasn’t had a chance to misuse his power yet.]
He has had a chance to be seen as a total dropkick by many more people by now, and by the time a fresh election is called in WA..
[I don’t know why people are so upset by Abbott and Morrison. They promised to turn back boats – and they have done it with double efficiency. If a boat is turned back twice it will still get to Australia]
There’s a refreshing bit of spin! 😀
With Abbott and Palmer leading the charge on climate change and carbon pollution – probably a good idea if we commission Palmer to start on a replica earth – we might need it.
Sean Tisme@1989
They are shitting all over abbott, morrison & mesma and making them look like gooses.
You too truthie –
dave@1636
So will he Libs thank SBY for turning back the boat (to Christmas Island)?
Julie Bishop must have been a fantastically effective negotiator in her recent trip.
Psephos@1985
3 quotas is 42.86%.
You have given ALP 25% & Greens 8%.
25 + 8 = 43%
Yes, there will be some ‘leakage’, but also some votes picked up as preferences from micro parties. I just hope the latter exceed the former.
[Does this mean Sean was wrong??]
It means he has been forced into a hasty retreat, bleating something about West Papua for some reason.
The unhingement. It burns.
[He has had a chance to be seen as a total dropkick by many more people by now, and by the time a fresh election is called in WA..]
I don’t think that’s true. Elite types luck us think he’s a dropkick, but he has shown himself very adept at tapping into anti-establishment populist sentiment – much more even than Hanson did, and he has deeper pockets as well.