Morgan published its fortnightly poll yesterday, which for whatever reason was limited to face-to-face and SMS polling, excluding its usual online component. This caused the sample size to come in at 2077, about 1000 short of the usual. The preponderance of face-to-face polling in the result might help explain the poll’s unusually weak showing for the Coalition, who are down two points on the primary vote to 41.5%. Labor and the Greens are each up half a point, to 35% and 10.5%, with the Palmer United Party up a point to 5.5%. The only meaningful two-party figure provided by Morgan is respondent-allocated, which at 50-50 is much as it would have been with a preference distribution based on the recent election.
An aberrant poll result marks an auspicious occasion for BludgerTrack to return to the sidebar, fresh from its almost-accurate projection of state seat totals at the federal election. Bias and accuracy measures have been freshly recalibrated, and a preference allocation model implemented which accounts for the Palmer United Party’s share of the “others” vote. There are currently only 14 polling data points in the mix (and only five with specific numbers for the Palmer United Party), including eight from Essential, four from Morgan and one each from Newspoll and ReachTEL. This is to say there is a paucity of live interview phone polling, which was again the best performing method at the election. At present the trend seems to be one of stability in the first month and Labor decline in the second, but the disturbance to the stability comes down entirely the Newspoll result.
ruawake
Posted Saturday, November 9, 2013 at 7:34 pm | Permalink
When HMAS Butt Stallion assisted the boat in distress it had 53 people on board. Now 63 are on Ocean Voyager, did some jump ship?
===================================
perhaps some Her Majesty’s crew decided to seek asylum
If you look at the flood of boat people coming to Italy from Libya…now really a failed state thanks to the overthrow of Gadaffi(silly move that one) and the growing islamization of Libya”’there is really little that we can do re the boat people’
Most European nations now have a huge inflow annually
I saw on ABC TV that Sweden has been getting tens of thousands from Syria(and who can blame them Sweden’s a good choice)
Greece has more than 70.000 last year and Italy even more via Libya…. and Malta is reelingtoo and wants EU aid
Next year BTW the restrictions on Bulgarians and Romanians moving to the UK and elsewhere is lifted so they will getting a flood as those two states are now in the EU
In the USA 23 millions families depend on food stamps for the most basic food supplies daily the really poor get nothing else yet the Tea Party thinks even that is too much
Deb
Yet until America finds a way to bring those 23 million familes plus the large group just above them on the income scale into the boarder economy its economy will continue to flounder.
Psephos is right to identify the difference between the Refugee convention and international sea law.
Australia cannot expect to stop people tiring to come by boat, unless it gives a blanket no.
In calling for that it is important that Australia enables those that do want to migrate to Australia an avenue to do so.
I would abolish most visa types, we only need one for Holidays, one for immigration and maybe an in-between visa or maybe just two.
The three word slogan for the Australian Government now in respect of asylum seekers should be ‘stop the politics’. The Government should now look for a genuine solution to the problem which would allow Australia to accept asylum seekers in an orderly fashion as part of our immigration program while deterring people from handing money to criminals for a place on a dangerous ocean crossing on a leaky boat. Tony would need to talk to Indonesia, Malaysia and other neighbours as well as source countries where possible. He will also need to talk to the Opposition. It will be difficult with no guarantee of success. If Tony Abbott does this he would earn a modicum of respect from his foes.
What I am expecting to happen is that he will claim credit for the slowdown resulting from the PNG solution, maintain silence over ‘operational details’ like boat arrivals, and gear up for a dog whistling campaign for the next election.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott has promised a “respectful” new parliament when it assembles for the first time next week, promising
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Again with the promise of a respectful Parliament.
He is so stupid. unstable and unhinged that he does not realise that he and his crew were the problem
With Indonesia playing silly buggers I think it’s time Australia calls a spade and spade and bring up this issue of West Papuan independence.
Howard freed East Timor from the tyranny of Indonesia, I think it’s time we do the same for the people of WP.
Bongo has gone feral
[@PaulBongiorno: This is what can happen http://t.co/UdfeP9ZX02%5D
https://twitter.com/paulbongiorno/status/399095084827676672
In order to improve relations with Indonesia Sean wants Australia to support a free West Papua….
that would fit with the thinking of an unstable Abbott and unhinged Morrison.
This is a seminal time in the Australian polity. A new government struggling with the training wheels taken off, stumbling from travel rorts to Indonesia giving them the big FU.
And 70% of our print media is taking the Murdoch shilling, with orders to cover up, don’t report, spin the positives for this shambles of an administration.
Sean’s attitude
AA
[He is so stupid. unstable and unhinged that he does not realise that he and his crew were the problem]
Of course he does. He’s just being disingenuous and self-serving.
ST
[Howard freed East Timor from the tyranny of Indonesia, I think it’s time we do the same for the people of WP.]
Please post a copy of your letter to Abbott/Bishop proposing this and their replies.
Shorn really doing attention seeking now.
Why his Mummy didn’t ‘love’ him obvious to see.
Sean @1908 – what an idiotic suggestion.
Steve777
[what an idiotic suggestion.]
From an expected source.
Out of fairness to Sean, the Australian government can only dream of achieving the GDP growth which the Indonesians are experiencing.
Sean why don’t we just declare war on Indonesia and get it over and done with? I’m sure a few rounds from our mighty warships lobbed into Jakarta should get them to put up the white flag, then we can run the joint the way we want to…. That way we can set up an independent West Papua on our own terms. Turn Indonesia into a refugee camp. No more boats. Pretty simple. 250 million Indonesians shouldn’t be a problem for the mighty Aussies to handle would it?????
Abbutt has all the diplomatic skils and graces of Sir Les Patterson
Sprocket in 1911 spoke about journos and the Murdoch shilling. The Fed Govt and the Press can now be called the Coalition of the Shilling.
Taking the shilling, doing the shilling , being the shill, they have it all covered. The word shill in various definitions covers them precisely.
Add to confessions 1873
Malcolm Farr @farrm51 22m
If true, we weren’t told: Jakarta Post says Australia’s last THREE turn-back attempts failed. http://bit.ly/1awWZIR (HT @profsarahj )
Becoming a case of who does one trust in this country
Sean Tisme@1908
So abbott cannot stop the boats 🙂
Sean T
Uou should join the Army and get some early training for the war with the Indons which will certainly come over PNG if we follow your agressive poklicy on PNG….you might then get a chance to fight on the Kokoda Trail…a bit of history there for you …enjoy the jungle too
Schnappi@1922
This no comment bull won’t last much longer either.
Too many other sources around.
And murdoch doesn’t control them all.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott has promised a “respectful” new parliament when it assembles for the first time next week…
I think he said something similar in 2010. He lied. Tony Abbott does not do ‘respectful’, just as he doesn’t do negotiation. The Opposition and Greens should show our block-headed clown of a PM the respect he deserves.
sprocket
I cant believe Bongo is retweeting the meme re JBishop!
So I get home to hear more jobs being lost.
DFAT Graduates who are most likely younger people.
Have uncertain future now.
You voted for this rubbish.
IF Abbott had convened Parliament 2 weeks earlier, Greg Hunt could have gone to Warsaw, just sayin’.
FTR I favour an independent/autonomous West Papua. I understand they are even willing to allow the Indonesians who have moved there a vote.
Not for a second do I imagine Abbott would fancy this.
There would have always been an ecuse for Hunt not to attend.
The one excuse not mentioned is his stupidity
AussieAchmed@1931
Gutless.
He would be laughed at.
A reminder for those interested. bill Shorten on Insiders tomorrow morning
Hunt could’ve gone, regardless of when parliament had been scheduled. For one thing it would’ve gotten him out of the line of QT fire over electricity prices and the cost of direct action to taxpayers that will surely be coming his way next week. And we all know he’s hardly a stellar parliamentary performer.
Labor should also target Abbott, who has no head for details, and has never given any indication that he is across the specifics of the coalition’s signature election policies, even if they have had them for the last 4 years or so.
I should add that the changes to standing orders that are certain to eventuate will be very interesting to see.
“We have a very good rapport,” Ms Bishop said following her attendance at the Bali Democracy Forum and seventh meeting in eight weeks with her Indonesian counterpart, Marty Natalegawa.
Addressing the Liberal Party of Western Australia state conference on Saturday, Ms Bishop dismissed diplomatic tensions which have arisen from leaked documents showing Australia has engaged in a US-led intelligence-gathering operation from its embassy in Jakarta.
===============================================
Earth to Planet Bishop……
victoria@1933
Vic, Could be an interesting show tomorrow ?
RE Insiders, anyone know who is on the panel?
AussieAchmed@1936
Indeed.
All of a sudden the tories look like what they always were.
tory drop kicks, oozing entitlement and hubris but with bugger all talent. But I repeat myself.
[ Hikmahanto Juwana, a professor of international law from the University of Indonesia, said governmental relations between the two countries would only worsen.
He said the atmosphere of distrust sparked over issues of wiretapping and asylum seekers “had strained relations indefinitely”. ]
http://m.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/11/09/ri-oz-maritime-standoff.html
On #insiders tomorrow : @billshortenmp , panel @dwabriz @KarenMMiddleton @PhillipCoorey. Talking Pics with @mpbowers & @jonkudelka #auspol
[All of a sudden the tories look like what they always were.
tory drop kicks, oozing entitlement and hubris but with bugger all talent. ]
Just as they’ve been looking in several states for a few years now.
“@BernardKeane: So, thanks to @scottmorrisonmp’s cover-up, it seems we will have to get info on failures to turn back boats from the Indonesian media.”
dave
Will be interesting to see what Bill Shorten has to say
victoria
Bill Shorten returning to the national spotlight could not have been timed better.
Cheers Vic, could be a worse panel so I’ll give it a go.
Sean Tisme for Foreign Monster
________________________
I left the mis-spelling of Minister there ..it seems about what I had in mind
Sean couldn’t be much worse than Bishop come to think of it…and it would keep him off the streets AND OUT OF PB
[“@BernardKeane: So, thanks to @scottmorrisonmp’s cover-up, it seems we will have to get info on failures to turn back boats from the Indonesian media.”]
Don’t most Australian media outlets have Indonesian correspondents, who could just as capably report on the Indonesian govt responses as their Jakarta equivalents?
Perhaps this is like a turf war, with the Canberra press gallery journos unwilling to be usurped by their colleagues in Indonesia, hence nothing gets reported in the Oz media.
The Indonesians have never liked the Liberal Party. It goes all the way back to the 1940s, when Chifley and Evatt supported Indonesian independence while Menzies and Spender backed the Dutch. We will recall how Megawati kept Howard waiting. Now their experience with Abbott and Bishop will have richly confirmed their dislike. It’s going to be a rocky three years.
This is one big storm.
https://twitter.com/abcnews/status/399118167135354880/photo/1
guytaur
Hopefully he will be asked pertinent questions