Morgan: 50-50 (and the return of BludgerTrack)

Morgan finds Labor drawing level with the Coalition, although Bill Shorten shouldn’t go measuring the drapes at The Lodge quite yet. The return of your favourite poll aggregate finds no change on the election result.

Morgan published its fortnightly poll yesterday, which for whatever reason was limited to face-to-face and SMS polling, excluding its usual online component. This caused the sample size to come in at 2077, about 1000 short of the usual. The preponderance of face-to-face polling in the result might help explain the poll’s unusually weak showing for the Coalition, who are down two points on the primary vote to 41.5%. Labor and the Greens are each up half a point, to 35% and 10.5%, with the Palmer United Party up a point to 5.5%. The only meaningful two-party figure provided by Morgan is respondent-allocated, which at 50-50 is much as it would have been with a preference distribution based on the recent election.

An aberrant poll result marks an auspicious occasion for BludgerTrack to return to the sidebar, fresh from its almost-accurate projection of state seat totals at the federal election. Bias and accuracy measures have been freshly recalibrated, and a preference allocation model implemented which accounts for the Palmer United Party’s share of the “others” vote. There are currently only 14 polling data points in the mix (and only five with specific numbers for the Palmer United Party), including eight from Essential, four from Morgan and one each from Newspoll and ReachTEL. This is to say there is a paucity of live interview phone polling, which was again the best performing method at the election. At present the trend seems to be one of stability in the first month and Labor decline in the second, but the disturbance to the stability comes down entirely the Newspoll result.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,094 comments on “Morgan: 50-50 (and the return of BludgerTrack)”

Comments Page 41 of 42
1 40 41 42
  1. Psephos@1991

    A pity you defected to the Loons instead of staying with the ALP.

    People who believe that Zionist bankers rule the world don’t belong in the ALP.

    Well I don’t think deblonay believes that, but OTOH, you certainly believe in some crap at times.

  2. [People who believe that Zionist bankers rule the world don’t belong in the ALP.]
    They also do not belong in an economics class. Most of the bankers are white protestant old-boys from New England, Frankfurt or Zurich, despite the Jewish stereotype.

  3. [ confessions
    Posted Saturday, November 9, 2013 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

    Does this mean Sean was wrong??

    It means he has been forced into a hasty retreat, bleating something about West Papua for some reason.

    The unhingement. It burns. ]

    All the better.

    Enjoy it while the sod is on the ropes.

    Overcome by reality.

    Fecked and far from home.

  4. Hmm.. my arithmetic isn’t working.

    Unless we get 3LNP, 2ALP, 1GRN nothing will change. Will still need 3 cross bench Senators to block legislation.


  5. cud:

    Many of the people I work and socialise with voted PUP in the Senate simply because he is not seen in the same vein as other MPs. They reckon he’s more honest and down to earth than representatives of the mainstream parties.

    I expect PUP to do well in a WA Senate re-election.

  6. dave:

    I’m hoping the resumption of parliament yields many more gaffes from the govt once the blowtorch is applied.

    Shorten on Insiders tomoz may give some insights into what Labor is planning for Tuesday. 🙂

  7. I wonder if any journos will be able track down our incredible disappearing PM and get him to explain why his stop the boats policy is such a complete and utter flop?

    The media should call codswallop on the ‘operational reasons’ silence. Because that’s what it is: complete horseshit.

  8. confessions@2007

    I expect PUP to do well in a WA Senate re-election.

    Thats a concern, because abbott in that case will probably get his way in the senate – one way or another.

    WA – bend over – you cannot say the writing wasn’t on the wall.

  9. Re Global warming and extreme weather

    This northern summer saw one of the hottest and longest heat waves in Chinese history..almost 6 weeks of massive heat and record breaking temps

    I was in the USA at that time and looking at the english language service on ChinaTV (which was often better than the awful US news services)..there was much time given to the damages caused by the Chinese heat wave

    At about the same time the massive Cyclonic storm which hit India was also spoken of as one of the most severe ever seen there
    This is like last years massive hurricane along the US east coast. While travelling in the USA recently …I was surprised to learn that much damage on Statin Island and in New Jersey was still not made good…a combination of ineffective relief by FEMA annd the tactics of the insurance companies(no surprise there !

    The famed beach resorts of what is still called locally”the Old New Jersey Shore.”(there was once a popular song about the coastline there)..near Atlantic City ..are still shattered…many of the lovely old timber houses shattered beyond repair

    In earlier times the towns there were much loved by working class New Yorkers for summer holidays and still are/were… till the great the area is quite close to NY

    The NJ Repub Governor Christie( a very shrewd operator) put much time into relief with Obama’s help..and this plus a “left” position on a range of issues like guns/global warming and SS marriage and Gay Rights…and his disdain for the Tea Party loons…gave him a rare return victory in a very Democratic state
    One wonders given the huge weather disturbance in the central Pacific,whether it might soon be our turn in FNQ to experience such horrors
    Glad that our Govt now rejects such silly notions re GW

    Perhaps Abbott and his mate Pell might lead us in a prayer campaign as summer comes on

  10. How Indonesia stole West Papua… read more at the link

    [West Papua’s struggle for independence from Indonesia has long been ignored by the international community. A number of recent high profile events are helping to change this.

    Indonesia annexed West Papua in 1969 under controversial circumstances. The Dutch had initially retained West Papua after WWII even after Indonesia won its independence. Independent Indonesia continued to claim sovereignty over West Papua but the Dutch disagreed and prepared West Papuans for independence throughout the 1950s. In late 1961 West Papua declared its independence over Indonesian opposition, creating a national anthem and raising the Morning Star national flag (though the extent of this independence is questionable as the Dutch continued to be present).

    Nearly immediately Indonesia, backed by the Soviet Union, began launching military operations to try and forcibly retake the region. The United States, concerned that Indonesia was being dragged into the Soviet sphere, intervened in the conflict and brokered the “New York Agreement,” which was agreed to by Indonesia, the Dutch and other international parties in August 1962. The following year it was ratified by the UN.

    The New York Agreement called for West Papua to briefly become a UN protectorate after which time would be placed under Indonesia’s administrative control until a referendum could be held where the West Papuan people would decide whether to become an Indonesian province or an independent state. After taking control of the region in 1963, however, Indonesian authorities launched a widespread crack down on internal dissent and began strictly regulating outsider access to the region. Ultimately the long promised referendum on independence was held in 1969. “The Act of Free Choice,” as it was ironically called, consisted of about one thousand elders the Indonesian military had hand-selected voting unanimously to become a part of Indonesia. West Papuans have been rebelling against Indonesian rule ever since. ]

  11. I would expect PUP to do very well in a new WA Senate election if one is called. Palmer has a little bit for everyone across the spectrum and will be hard to stop until he actually has to put his voting cards on the table.

    He might even do a Xenophon 2007 and knock out the third Lib.

    Will be interesting if the right micros decide that Palmer is as much a threat as the Greens and gang up on PUP as well.

  12. dave:

    Rudd did anti politics for this very reason. Unfortunately for Labor he had neither the skill set or the temperament to see it through in govt, and the whole venture crashed and burned for the ALP with disastrous results.

    With any luck PUP will be a flash in the pan like One Nation was. Except Palmer appears far more savvy than Hanson.

  13. [ Sean Tisme
    Posted Saturday, November 9, 2013 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    How Indonesia stole West Papua… read more …… ]

    This is totally delicious…

    tories stumped by the Indons and unable to “STOP the BOATS!”

    but now their flunkies are wallowing around trying to change the subject.

    truthie – abbott got a fogging – one that was always coming, but please continue to play the goose.

    Thats entertainment!

  14. Sean 2015

    West Papua is a long way from Christmas Island. Aren’t you getting distracted from explaining how Julie Bishop achieved her triumph? Share with us your story of her skill. Live in the now. We’d love to hear you explain. Did any children fall overboard from this boat?

    Turn back the Sean!

    It turns out though, that the Straight’s Times is a more reliable source of information on boat arrivals than the Liberal Party.

  15. Dave,

    us “Tories” helped bring freedom to the people of East Timor, while your mate Whitlam helped hand it over to the Indonesians (and Zimbabwe to his mate Mugabe while we are at it).

    I’ve actually been calling for intervention in West Papua back in Gillards day(feel free to check) and seeing as sucking up to Indonesia hasn’t worked it’s time we take more extreme measures… like… oh thats right… we ARE a U.N Security Council Member!!

    Been sitting on that spot and have done absolutely jack shit.. well now heres the chance!

  16. <a href="Socrates@2021

    It turns out though, that the Straight’s Times is a more reliable source of information on boat arrivals than the Liberal Party.


    It turns out though, that the Straight’s Times is a more reliable source of information on boat arrivals than the Liberal Party.

    Even before the new parliament has sat – the region is laughing at abbott.

    Sad, but true.

  17. Sean

    Still waiting for an explanation of SBY turning back the boats. Don’t you remember your words from earlier today? Has the carrier pigeon carrying instructions from Abbott’s office gone astray? Don’t you wish they had broadband now?

  18. [
    Posted Saturday, November 9, 2013 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

    Few judge western society on the basis of the behaviour of it’s less savoury priests.

    And of course they’d be quite wrong to do so. But the situation with institutionalised sex with boys in Iran and Afghanistan is quite different. You might care to inform yourself before you start abusing people.
    I think I will place a little more faith in my own experiance than your “mainstream” publication. Your certainly a man that loves to hate.

  19. [the Straight’s Times

    I didn’t know heterosexuals had their own newspaper.]
    Well spotted! I thought it might be more acceptable to the Liberal right that way 🙂 Lucky for me Fran is not lurking.

  20. Psephos 1991 re bankers
    I have never here of elsewhere spoken of jewish bankers or made any such references re financiers

    I did recently post a reference from a US source on the way Govts everywhere look to the advice of Central Bankers…as much here as elsewhere…who invariably are neo-liberals and have a far-right view of the way the economy should work…….unbridled capitalism and austerity…are their usual remedies

    much the same is true here.of our Reserve Bank..but no mention was ever made by me of Jewish bankers in any context…do you know something that I don’t…are there any on the Reserve Bank and does it matter ?

    On this site I often posted from Jewish writers and sites … notably from Lowestein in OZ and from “Mondoweiss ” in New York..all written by liberal Jews who loathe Natanyahu and Likud and show great sympathy for the Palestinians under endless pressure from illegal settlements…which only this week John Kerry deplored in strong terms……do you disagree with him ??

    Only recently the Zionist Lobby in the US waged a huge campaign against the appointment of Hagel to the Pentagon because of some statements he made re Palestine and his dislike of the way the Lobby acted re US defence…now Kerry will get a similar blast…..but being in Kerry’s comopany is hardly a left position
    I think 

  21. Sean Tisme@2023

    I’ve actually been calling for intervention in West Papua

    Call whatever and whoever you want, you are talking crap and abbott wouldn’t touch it it with a fifty foot barge pole.

    Try and change the subject as much as you like, it doesn’t matter, no one is listening.

    abbott got totally flogged today by the idons simply because he thought he was JC. Today is just the first lesson, next time things get much more serious.

    abbott has been kicked all over the paddock (you too truthie) but doesn’t realise it.

    Either he wakes up or its the beginning of the end.

    The hard grind now await abbott.

  22. Sean

    From your insider status, any idea when we can look forward to a oress conference from Julie Bishop on her successful returning of this boat to Christmas Island? Or might we dare hope for an audience with the very busy one himself, PM Anthony Abbott?

  23. The remarkable thing about Jews and Banking is that the christans often turned to the Jewish community for assistance in raising finance then later on complain about the Jewish bankers or would directly attack the Jewish population by asset stripping.

  24. Night all. Looking forward to your explanation Sean. Maybe someone on Insiders will ask Bishop tomorrow about the Turned Back Boat? Or maybe the Libs will be taking advice from the Chinese Information Ministry on how to block out the story and stop Australians reading internet web sites from anywhere in SE Asia.

  25. Deblonay:

    If that was the meaning of your post about bankers, I accept that and retract the allegation in my earlier post. I try not to make accusations of anti-Semitism as a cheap debating point.

    I am not a supporter of Netanyahu. If I was an Israeli, I wouldn’t vote for him. Like Michael Danby, I support Israeli Labour and agree with them about the need for a two-state solution.

    But the “settlements” are not the real obstacle to a peace agreement. The Palestinians were offered a state by the UN in 1947 and preferred to go to war. They have lived with the consequences of their folly ever since. They were offered a state again in 2000 by Clinton and Barak, and again in 2008 by Olmert. Each time they refused, because they will not accept the existence of Israel as a Jewish state. In the meantime, the West Bank (Judaea and Samaria) are not part of any state, and Jews have as much right to live there as Arabs.

    (I could make a very good case that as part of Mandate Palestine, which was intended by the San Remo agreement of 1921 to be the Jewish National Home, Judaea and Samaria are actually Israeli territory – but that is not the position of the Israeli government.)

    You are actually wrong about the Hagel appointment. The campaign was waged by the Republicans. AIPAC did not campaign against him, because they knew the Senate would confirm him and they didn’t want to make an enemy of him. Here’s Daniel Pipes attacking AIPAC for NOT opposing him.

  26. [I thought it was a pretty good save, actually.]

    Oh come along William. I caught him out in a gross error of fact – Whitlam left office four years before the Zimbabwe settlement. His response was a feeble evasion. Surely you have higher standards than that?

  27. William

    [Every child has to get a merit certificate at some point in the school year.]

    Even if it is achieved by fishing one out of the recycling bin and changing the name and date.

  28. Mexican Beemere 2036 re Jews and Banking
    … in earlier times in Europe the Catholic Chirch claimed that Usury was a mortal sin(that’s charging interest on loans) ..later this changed in Italy,notably in Florence…but that was one reason many Jews,,,discriminated against in other ways,were able to survive ..but people who lend moiney are often hated by the borrowers…and this happend to many Jewish miney-lenders

    Shakespeare noted this in “The Merchant of Venice” in the character of Shylock

    In France in the late 19th century there was a great scandal over Alfred Dreyfus(from a wealthy Jewish family) who was wrongly accused of treason in the Ministery of War in Paris

    The Dreyfus Affair was a amazing case which polarised all French society…and unleashed a torrent of anti-semitism from the far right…pertly linked to the collapse of a Rothschilds Bank which had gathered much business in the rural catholic community among the peasantry

    When the bank collapsed many were ruined and they blamed”the jewsish bankers” and this anti-semitism became a central part of right-wing politics in France…so much so that it was a central part of the policies of the pro-Nazi Vichy Govt after 1940 under the occupation…and the virulent anti-jewish policies of Vichy were as cruel as those of the Nazis..and as derived from an anti-semitic idea

    There are several great studies of this part of French history..”.Dreyfus..A Family Affair “is one of the best ,amd looks at the whole remarkable affair which ended with Dreyus being freed from Devil’s Island

    Many of the Vichy people were jailed or executed after Liberation in 1944

    Another great read is by Carmen Calill an Australian feminist London…. who leaned an eztraordinary story about a French fascist called Dartiere(and his Australian wife) who lived and worked in Paris for Vichy and assisted in the arrest of Jewish children
    He escaped to Franco’s fascist Spain in 1944..and his wife died in Paris of alcoholism

    Calill wrote a book called “In Bad Faith” about Dartiere after finding he had abandoned a child in the UK in the year before the war…and this child has lived out a life in the UK…and was know to Calill…hence the book “In Bad Faith”
    Ironically when Calill at a book launch in N York recently said she hoped the Jewish community would realise it’s need for compassion towards the Palestinians she was denounced by the usual suspects for her” anti-semitism”

    when will they ever learn ?

  29. Psephos:

    [Whitlam left office four years before the Zimbabwe settlement. His response was a feeble evasion.]

    To say that the man who defied the existing parliamentary convention on the budget in order to force an advantageous mid-term poll to get rid of the ALP “might as well have been a Labor PM” entails the most wilful stupidity.

  30. [Another great read is by Carmen Calill an Australian feminist London…. who leaned an eztraordinary story about a French fascist called Dartiere(and his Australian wife) ]

    It is indeed an excellent book. His name was Louis Darquier de Pellepoix, but he made the de Pellepoix bit up to sound more aristocratic. He was a loathsome toad. His wife was from Launceston, if I recall. She called herself “Madame la Comtesse” with no justification at all.

  31. deblonay@2045

    Ironically when Calill at a book launch in N York recently said she hoped the Jewish community would realise it’s need for compassion towards the Palestinians she was denounced by the usual suspects for her” anti-semitism”

    when will they ever learn ?

    I thought that the Palestinians and others in that part of the world were of the ‘Semitic’ race.

    So I have been more than a little puzzled by the term anti-Semitism being applied only toward Jewish people.

    I get even more confused when I see Jewish people who seem to have a very high proportion of European genes and very little by way of Semitic genes.

    Can anyone explain?

  32. The book”In Bd Faith” about the Vichy regime is available from Amazon and I recommended it..shocking though it is

Comments Page 41 of 42
1 40 41 42

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *