Morgan: 50-50 (and the return of BludgerTrack)

Morgan finds Labor drawing level with the Coalition, although Bill Shorten shouldn’t go measuring the drapes at The Lodge quite yet. The return of your favourite poll aggregate finds no change on the election result.

Morgan published its fortnightly poll yesterday, which for whatever reason was limited to face-to-face and SMS polling, excluding its usual online component. This caused the sample size to come in at 2077, about 1000 short of the usual. The preponderance of face-to-face polling in the result might help explain the poll’s unusually weak showing for the Coalition, who are down two points on the primary vote to 41.5%. Labor and the Greens are each up half a point, to 35% and 10.5%, with the Palmer United Party up a point to 5.5%. The only meaningful two-party figure provided by Morgan is respondent-allocated, which at 50-50 is much as it would have been with a preference distribution based on the recent election.

An aberrant poll result marks an auspicious occasion for BludgerTrack to return to the sidebar, fresh from its almost-accurate projection of state seat totals at the federal election. Bias and accuracy measures have been freshly recalibrated, and a preference allocation model implemented which accounts for the Palmer United Party’s share of the “others” vote. There are currently only 14 polling data points in the mix (and only five with specific numbers for the Palmer United Party), including eight from Essential, four from Morgan and one each from Newspoll and ReachTEL. This is to say there is a paucity of live interview phone polling, which was again the best performing method at the election. At present the trend seems to be one of stability in the first month and Labor decline in the second, but the disturbance to the stability comes down entirely the Newspoll result.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,094 comments on “Morgan: 50-50 (and the return of BludgerTrack)”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    What a fiscal fraud!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/treasurer-joe-hockey-blows-a-3-billion-hole-in-budget-20131106-2x1su.html
    It’s all the fault of that toxic carbon tax!
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/shocking-rise-in-electricity-complaints-20131106-2x1x6.html
    How surprising.
    http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/news-corp-bias-against-kevin-rudd-showed-up-in-independent-study-diary-reveals-20131106-2x1ig.html
    Barnaby claimed travel for his wife and child because he didn’t see them that often. Is that arrogance or what? An SMH poll has 94% saying his claims are inappropriate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/barnaby-joyce-wont-pay-back-nrl-expenses-20131106-2x1t8.html
    Looks like Eddie’s on the bones of his arse.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/obeid-falls-on-hard-times-20131106-2x1tc.html
    Here we go!
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/health-staff-told-350-jobs-in-sights-20131106-2x20a.html
    Is Lenore Taylor calling out Howard as a cynical liar here?
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/06/election-ploy-john-howard-climate
    Sloppy by name and sloppy by nature.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/despite-industry-doubts-joe-hockey-promises-power-prices-will-fall-20131106-2x0ts.html
    The demonisation of asylum seekers is hitting a few raw nerves.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/call-to-end-harsh-use-of-illegal-for-boat-arrivals-20131106-2x0n2.html

  2. Section 2 . . .

    David Rowe must be a little psychologically disturbed to come up with this stuff. Have a look at Joyce and Brandis outside the window!
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    Cathy Wilcox having a pot shot at the location of Packer’s new casino in Sydney.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    David Pope gives Abbott a justified serve here.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg exposes the moral fibre of the Coalition.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  3. And from the Land of the Free –

    FoxNews does its best to get the repugs over the line.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/11/06/video-election-night-fox-turned-true-vote-stoke-obamacare-fears/
    Some cartoons on Rand Paul’s plagiarism.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/11/06/cartoons-day-rand-paul-plagiarism/
    Jon Stewart blasts ObamaCare opponents.
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/jon-stewart-blasts-obamacare-opponents
    Rachael Maddow on the Virginia election coverage.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/06/chuck-todd-cnn-election-maddow_n_4224649.html

  4. Morning all. Thanks for the links BK, which show the arrogance and hypocrisy of the Abbott government plain to see. Tax concessions for the rich, and blowing out the budget by $3 billon despite a claimed emergency. The poor will need divine help, after Abbott is through with them.

  8. BK

    The performance of most of our media in the past year has been worse than the US media that fawned over Dubbya Bush before he became US president in 2000, then wondered why they had wound up with an idiot running their economy and military. Labor made some bad mistakes, but Abbott was unscrutinised, and intentionally dishonest.

  9. Leith van Onselen (clearly more impartial than Peter) sums up Hockey on the ABC website. Even the coalition minders in Aunty can’t spin this garbage.
    [In the end, the policy change announced by the Coalition would result in a superannuation system that costs the budget even more money – mostly via the huge concessions granted to higher income earners – while doing little to relieve the strain on the aged pension, since those most likely to require the pension in old age will receive an even smaller share of the superannuation concessions.

    It’s enough to make a cynic like me suspect that Hockey’s bluster over entitlement spending is just hollow rhetoric designed to mask an assault on government support for the poor, while maintaining benefits to his rich constituents.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-06/llewellyn-smith-entitlement-spending/5073642

    So not only has Hockey blown $3 billion now, it will get worse ovr time.

  10. BK The cartoons say it all once again. Thanks

    David Rowe seems to be drawing Abbott’s mob uglier every day. Did he draw Labor that ugly?

  11. morning

    From last night’s thread. Worth reposting

    [Shaun Carney in the Herald Sun.

    WHEN voters in Victoria’s northeast decided to ditch Sophie Mirabella for Cathy McGowan at the federal election two months ago, their decision had an impact on the other side of the planet.

    General Motors, headquartered in Detroit, has become increasingly restive about its Australian operation, Holden, in recent years.]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/holdens-future-remains-on-a-knifeedge/story-fni0ffsx-1226754487516

    And Michael Pascoe’s take on the subject

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/everyone-works-for-holden–not-20131106-2x0ne.html

  14. Tanya Plibersek was guest on Lateline with Emma Alberici last night. A very measured interview

    Interestingly, Tanya has been the public face of Labor this week. Have nor seen Shorten at all

  17. [Software giant Microsoft says the Abbott government should reconsider its national broadband network (NBN) policy.

    The former Labor government’s fibre-to-the-home plan is superior to the coalition’s cheaper policy of running optical fibres to street exchanges, Microsoft Australia managing director Pip Marlow says.

    Microsoft argues that a fibre-to-the home NBN would deliver faster speeds than the coalition’s hybrid optical fibre and copper cable program.

    “Ultimately, if you don’t get fibre to the home, the biggest impact really is the upload speeds,” she told AAP at a Committee for Economic Development of Australia event.
    Advertisement

    Microsoft is lobbying communications minister Malcolm Turnbull and other government members, Ms Marlow said.]

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/microsoft-urges-rethink-of-nbn-plan-20131106-2x1je.html

  19. This is laughable —

    The government has committed $100 million (wow! yes, that’s right!) to tackling mobile phone black spots across Australia —

    [About $80 million will go to networks and $20 million for areas with unusual problems, such as high demand during busy seasons.

    In both cases, the government has said it will only fund about half the total cost of projects.]

    I’m no tech head, but…

    1. I would assume that, if the networks are required to contribute, then they’ll be focussing on the areas they always focus on – areas with high use and therefore high profitability.

    For example –

    [Wodonga does have significant problems in the city,]

    — I’d expect this is where any funding Indi might receive will go, not to the isolated areas which concern people in emergencies.

    2. I assume that $20 million ($40 mill with a network contribution) will build about ten mobile phone towers (see http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-31/inverell-estimates-400000-cost-for-mobile-phone-tower/5062090 )

    So we’re looking at a total – assuming the networks are willing to stump up their share – of 50 mobile phone towers across Australia, or about one for every three electorates.

    Even if you’re generous enough to assume (and there’s nothing I’ve seen to support it) that this is targetted purely at regional areas, that’s still one for each regional seat.

    So I’m assuming that what will happen is that most of these will end up on an urban fringe somewhere, and very few, if any, will go to tackle the kind of blackspots local regions are concerned about.

    http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/1892539/region-rallies-for-blackspot-funds/?cs=11

  20. ABC Fact Check just poured lots of cold water on Pyne’s assertion that “all international evidence points to students from schools with autonomy having better educational outcomes”
    Finding?
    UNSUBSTANTIATED.
    Nice work Prissy!

  22. The travel rorts saga is ridiculous, it’s an obvious abuse of taxpayers funds and should be pursued vigorously. However, the Australian media seems to be too lazy to go for the jugular and of course the ALP wont do it because there are probably a few rorters on that side too.

    The excuses given by the LNP rorters are just insulting to the ordinary people of Australia.

  23. BK

    Even more ridiculous is that I’ve never seen it pointed out that we have different degrees of school autonomy in Australia, and thus could use our own internal statistics to work out whether it makes a bit of difference.

    Victoria has local school boards – the answer to every educational problem – and NSW doesn’t.

    Not only does the assumption that because their states don’t have them therefore all states don’t have them point to amazingly parochial views on the part of the relevant Coalition Ministers, the fact that no MP from states that do have them pull them up on this is even more disturbing.

    Victoria does outperform NSW slightly in some areas, but to all intents and purposes the two systems are on par.

    Similarly, if local boards were the panacea for hospitals, Victoria should be outperforming other states when it comes to health statistics.

  25. Very interesting

    [The finding represents new ground in how researchers view the skeleton: not only do bones provide structural support and serve as a repository for calcium and phosphate, they issue commands to far-flung cells. In mice at least, they talk directly to the brain. “This is a biggie,” said Eric Kandel, the neuroscientist and Nobel Laureate. “Who thinks of the bone as being an endocrine organ? You think of the adrenal gland, you think of the pituitary, you don’t think of bone.”]

    http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2013/11/do-our-bones-influence-our-minds.html

  26. Morning all.

    From the WTF file:

    [The Abbott Government is promising to find $500 million extra for WA roads after committing yesterday to upgrades to the North West Coastal Highway and the Great Northern Highway.

    Both projects were under threat from the coalition’s election promise to abolish Labor’s regional infrastructure fund.

    But Assistant Infrastructure Minister Jamie Briggs said the Abbott Government was committed to the projects even though the coalition was axing their funding source.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/19721045/500m-vow-for-wa-highways/

    Sounds like Hockeynomics to me!

  29. [“They weren’t in our costings, because they were in the forward estimates,” Mr Briggs told 6PR.

    His comments were inconsistent with those of deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop the day before the election.

    “We don’t have any hole in our costings because these (projects) are not in the forward estimates,” Ms Bishop said on September 6.]

    At least some media outlets are calling out their inconsistencies.

  30. This government has no policies, no ideas and are just handing out sweets to their mates…if they like you, they’ll fund you, if you supported them in opposition. they’ll change the law for you…they are a hopeless joke with no idea on economics or social policy. And their level of intelligence is frighteningly low…

    They are looking more like an elite fascist dictatorship every day…

  31. [Recent research indicates that the rate of increase in emissions might be slowing down, but the gases can continue to concentrate in the atmosphere and exert a climate influence for hundreds if not thousands of years (1).

    Scientists believe that the new data indicates that global warming will be back with a vengeance, after a slowdown in the rate of temperature increases over the past 14 years.

    “The laws of physics and chemistry are not negotiable,” said Michel Jarraud.

    “Greenhouse gases are what they are, the laws of physics show they can only contribute to warming the system, but parts of this heat may go in different places like the oceans for some periods of time,” he said.

    This view was echoed by Prof Piers Forster from the University of Leeds.

    “For the past decade or so the oceans have been sucking up this extra heat, meaning that surface temperatures have only increased slowly.

    “Don’t expect this state of affairs to continue though, the extra heat will eventually come out and bite us, so expect strong warming over the coming decades.”]

    (1) Deniers loved to trash Flannery when he said this, but it’s true.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24833148

  32. [Peter Ryan
    Industry Super Aust says removal of low income rebate combined with delaying comp super increase to 12% will cut national savings by $53b.]

  33. victoria

    I have tweeted to several whingers that Shorten is on leave. Last night Tanya was introduced as “Leader”. Seems some people just don’t want to believe it. I would have thought that Shorten needed a spell so that he’s fresh when Parliament begins.

  34. lizzie

    I wasnt sure of reason why shorten was not around. I made the assumption that he was taking time out to prepare for the resumption of parliament next week.

  35. victoria

    Very reasonable assumption by you, but people, of course, getting stuck into “the invisible man”. After the campaign for leadership following the election, I think anyone would need time out, to clear their thinking.

  40. [Two election bloggers have compared the initial counting at the four booths where 1375 missing ballots were cast with the recount to determine how their loss affected each party.

    Bloggers Ben Raue, of The Tally Room, and an anonymous poster on Truth Seeker concluded that Labor and Palmer United Party candidates would have prevailed had the missing votes been in the recount. But just one vote would cause that outcome from a crucial preference distribution, the bloggers say.

    The result is at odds with the Australian Election Commission recount that overturned this outcome in favour of the Greens and the Australian Sports Party.

    But the closeness of such a result and multiple discrepancies among recounted votes would make it difficult to accept the once-counted – now lost – ballots, they said.

    The anonymous poster, who election columnist William Bowe said was “clearly well on top of the situation”, found 14 missing votes for the Shooters and Fishers Party were cast at Mt Helena.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/19718482/lost-votes-would-change-senate-result/

    Who is the anonymous poster William refers to?

  41. [WA farmers have declared war on Canberra after Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce gave millions of dollars from the State’s debt crisis package to Queensland, NSW and Victoria.

    Local farming groups and the State Government were not consulted about the move, which came after a seven-month delay in rolling out concessional loans to battling WA farmers.

    Mr Joyce made a snap decision to cut the WA funding by $10 million to $50 million over two years, despite not visiting the State as the minister.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/19718523/farmer-fury-at-aid-for-wa-going-east/

  44. Hullo PBers
    Havn’t posted for a few days as busy with family and friends while in Sydney
    Have been comments when I can, things that stand out to me are

    Fairfax newspapers are having buyer’s remorse with Govt, leave out The Age who did endorse ALP

    The regular LNP apologists baby sean and CC are getting more shrill and aggressive , wonder why especially baby sean, wonder where his alto egos are? Passwords lost in the excitement?

    Twitter seems to be getting more anti LNP and the troll more ridiculous in their tweets, bit like on PB?

    Anyway see you next week:grin:

  47. Good Morning

    From all the posts this morning I see a trend. This government does the opposite to what experts in their field are saying. The people who know what to do.

    That and this government is on track to making President George W Bush look like a reasonable leader.

  49. Victims of the Blue Mountains’ worst bushfires in a decade are being let down by the Government, Labor claims today in a major attack on Prime Minister Tony Abbott.

    Acting Opposition Leader Tanya Plibersek today said lack of Government action was hindering recovery and clean-up operations. These are the areas the Government had nominated as priorities.

    Ms Plibersek said Prime Minister Abbott had refused to provide the same recovery strategy used to help victims of Victoria’s horror bushfires of 2009 and the Queensland cyclones.

  50. A looming WA skills shortage is feared with 7000 fewer people starting training or apprenticeships in the year to June compared with the previous year.

    An average of 225 people walked away from apprenticeships and training every week, or about 11,660 people in the year.
    ======================================

    What happened to all that business confidence with the Abbott now in charge?

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