Galaxy and ReachTEL: 53-47; Essential Research 52-48

Two days out from the only one that counts, three more polls.

Three more polls have emerged over the past 24 hours, though some of them already seem like old news. ReachTEL in particular will shortly be superseded when the results of the third such poll in consecutive days are revealed on Seven Sunrise at 6am. All three polls, together with new state breakdowns, have been thrown into the BludgerTrack mix. In turn:

• A Galaxy phone poll of 1303 respondents has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition, 9% for the Greens and 5% for the Palmer United Party. Full results including attitudinal questions from GhostWhoVotes.

• ReachTEL has Labor’s primary vote at 32.7%, compared with 35.3% on the result from the day before, with the Coalition down from 44.2% to 43.6% and the Greens up from 9.7% to 10.0%. The Palmer United Party meanwhile charges onward from 4.4% to 6.1%. This poll too has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. UPDATE: No need to amend the headline, because today’s poll is apparently 53-47 as well.

• Essential Research has an online poll of 1035 respondents with Labor on 35% of the primary vote (steady on Monday’s result), the Coalition on 43% (down one) and the Greens on 10% (steady). I’m also told the poll has the Palmer United Party on 4%, as did Monday’s result. On two-party preferred the Coalition lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 on Monday.

UPDATE: Morgan has a poll of 3939 respondents conducted last night and the night before by SMS, phone (live interview I assume) and online which has Labor on 31.5%, the Coalition on 45%, the Greens on 9.5% and the Palmer United Party on 6.5%. The published two-party preferred figure is 53.5-46.5 to the Coalition, which I presume to be respondent-allocated. State breakdowns are promised this afternoon, and there will be a “final poll” both conducted and released this evening.

UPDATE 2: The Guardian has a Lonergan Research automated phone poll of 862 respondents showing the Coalition lead at a narrow 50.8-49.2, with primary votes of 34% for Labor, 42% for the Coalition, 14% for the Greens and a relatively modest 10% for “others”. It also features, for what it’s worth (not much in my experience), Senate voting intention: 29% Labor, 40% Coalition, 16% Greens and 8% “others”. This seems consistent with the general pattern of Senate polling to inflate the vote for the Greens (and, back in the day, the Democrats).

UPDATE 3: Channel Nine reports tomorrow’s Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,352 comments on “Galaxy and ReachTEL: 53-47; Essential Research 52-48”

Comments Page 4 of 48
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  2. New country is

    Proper footyana

    Gives options for picking up WA, Tas and NT

    and sloughing the thugby clubland moronicity that will be Australia

  6. Meguire Bob@43


    Gary

    Edward StJohn and other coalition supporters dont even beleive the coalition will win

    Well DavidWH says he will find it difficult to vote abbott and I think Mod Lib has said he will vote informal.

    Not exactly ringing endorsements.

  7. I’ve never understood the practice of newspapers endorsing parties for election wins. It’s so self indulgent. Why should we care what they think?

  9. River

    Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 6:44 am | Permalink

    My tip is almost the same as glory’s.

    52-48, Coalition with 86 seats.

    I think that’s a fair bet, I was thinking coalition might get 90+ seats and they still could but polls are suggesting between 82-88 seats for coalition.

    I still think the polls are a bit out, I just can’t see too many people voting for Labor after the last 6 years…

  11. [144
    ltep
    Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 8:33 am | PERMALINK
    The fact it was after the voting intention question does not obviate

    How do you figure that?
    ]

    Whenever Galaxy’s push polling is pointed out, the heavy duty psephs point out the the order of questioning is all that matters. If voting intention is asked first, then it is a clean sample – before the push poll leading questions.

    My point is that masquerading behind a reputable name and slipping in push polling questions at the behest of your client (ie #NewsCorpse) is gutter level integrity.

  12. Itep

    Actually its the ultimate bias. Newspapers should keep their political opinion to themselves. Just report what is happening so voters can make up their own minds.

  13. Sprocket

    [@GhostWhoVotes: #ReachTEL Poll Primary Votes: ALP 33.7 (+1.0) L/NP 43.5 (-0.1) GRN 10.2 (+0.2) PUP 7.0 (+0.9) #ausvotes

    Could we be on track for a repeat of Bomber Beazley winning the 2PP and losing the seat count?]

    It would be some result if ALP win tpp on a primary of 33.7%. There would be plenty of bludgers wanting to give Palmer a hug. Hugs could probably be given in groups of a few.

  16. Palmer is a fruit loop yet bludgers here are singing his praises.

    Weren’t you guys attacking him for being a Nationals billionaire only a few years ago?

  18. Edi_Mahin

    Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 8:05 am | Permalink

    Abbott has called Murdoch a ‘hometown hero’ on Triple M this morning as he said Murdoch was an Australian and needed to be supported.
    ——————————————————–

    Not only didn’t Abbott understand his Internet policy, he still does not understand that Murdoch gave up his Australian citizenship to become a citizen of the USA.

  19. meher baba

    Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 6:41 am | Permalink

    All of you torturing Bludger Track and the polling data to come up with better results for Labor than 52-48 should consider what a woeful campaign Labor has had.

    Sure, Keating came back in 1993, but he campaigned very strongly and Hewson was poor. The Liberal campaign this time has been mediocre: no major stuff-ups in the eyes of the uninterested swinging voters (gaffes like “sex appeal” and yesterday’s net nanny nonsense are mainly only picked up on the radars of the political cognoscenti).

    Yes, there’s a continuing unease about Abbott and his team, and I expect that this has gotten a bit worse during the campaign. But this trend seems to be matched stride-for-stride by a diminishing confidence in Rudd and the increasingly chaotic state of Labor under the abiding influence of his personal journey.

    Meanwhile, the Coalition draws strength from a deep-seated trust among much of the public in their well-established “brand”: a sound economy, tight fiscal policy, lower taxes, stop the boats, etc. This used to be Labor’s brand until Beazley trashed it in the 1990s and Howard got very lucky with the state of the economy in the 2000s.

    There is a fair chance that, over the next few years, the Coalition will do some damage to that brand: they don’t seem ready for government, and Abbott and Hockey as an economic management team do not give me the sort of confidence that Howard and Costello did. But these possible future problems won’t help Rudd now.

    Regardless of the polls, it feels more like 54-46 to me than 50-50. Anyway, we’ll soon see.

    That’s what a feel too. I just can’t believe 52-46 or even 53-47….I think tomorrow Laborites will be shocked, and Liberals will be pleasantly surprised with a big win…

  22. Hockey was sweating profusely because he was sick with the flu yesterday.

    If it was really so bad that it couldn’t be controlled with panadol/aspirin or similar, he should have been in bed, not spreading his germs about.

    Has he miraculously recovered today?

    This was either another Lib fabrication, OR he really didn’t trust Robb to pull it off.

  23. “@MayneReport: Robb vs Shorten on Faine is great. Faine staying silent as boys go hammer and tongs. Should be more of this journo free stuff.”

  24. GUYTUAR – Another way of looking at the leadership dispute was that it was part of the growing pains of the Labor Party as it tries to broaden out and become a more comprehensive party. That was never going to be easy.

  25. [My point is that masquerading behind a reputable name and slipping in push polling questions at the behest of your client (ie #NewsCorpse) is gutter level integrity.]

    Well they’re just doing the job they’re paid for. I still don’t see how it undermines the soundness of the headline result if the questions are asked in a suitable order.

  28. [I see the Liberal trolls are up and about spreading their lies.]

    I think we have to allow the Liberal trolls their day in the sun. I don’t recall any Labor trolls being very charitable in 2007. I certainly wasn’t.

  29. itep @157

    I have no problem with editorials and opinion pages being, well, opinionated, as long as (!) the rest of the reporting is restrained in that it presents balanced facts for readers to make up their own minds. That requires readers with minds of course, not something easily found in Daily Terror territory, say.

  31. [That’s what a feel too. I just can’t believe 52-46 or even 53-47….I think tomorrow Laborites will be shocked, and Liberals will be pleasantly surprised with a big win…]

    52/46 is pretty unbelievable I agree 😉

    Also don’t see where the 50/50 predictions are all coming from and can’t see how anyone would be ‘shocked’ with a big win for the Coalition.

    [Another way of looking at the leadership dispute was that it was part of the growing pains of the Labor Party as it tries to broaden out and become a more comprehensive party.]

    Exactly how has it become more ‘comprehensive’ under Rudd?

  32. If the Member for Indi is dumped by her constituents tomorrow that will make watching the election coverage worthwhile.

    Otherwise, a bleak night.

  33. I’ve been off doing other things this week and haven’t been able to keep up with everything. Reading some of the posts from last night I noticed that one or two PBs were referring to Neilsen preference flows that seemed to be quite favourable to labour. Can anyone please tell me a bit more about that?

  35. [ lefty e
    Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 8:24 am | Permalink

    The real blame for that lies not with Gillard, Rudd or the media, but Wayne Swan. He kept on about Costello’s budget cycle crap and restoring a surplus, even though the stimulus success proved it wrong. Swan wrecked Labor’s narrative, despite himself being a good economic manager.

    I agree: they refused to code debt as counter- cyclical insurance, and paid the price.]

    Utter nonsense. Swan did say this over and over again.

    He correctly set a target for return to surplus and was attacked for trying to do so. He would have also been attacked if he had not done so – something the tories are now saying they will do – and they are being flagged through without a problem, even through they are backflipping on promises.

    When tax income continued to drop against the expectations of the country’s leading economists Swan changed to the new situation and thats what hockey is now doing.

    Hockey will be taking advice from the same Treasury who advised Swan – no matter how much he blusters.

  38. ltep
    Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 8:52 am | PERMALINK
    That’s what a feel too. I just can’t believe 52-46 or even 53-47….I think tomorrow L

    Also don’t see where the 50/50 predictions are all coming from

    ——-

    Tghe pro coalition media opinion polls have big margin of errors up to 4-7%

    which they giveto the newsltd/abbott coalition to go wiht thier narrative

  42. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏@Thefinnigans 3m

    Last Warning, still TRUE: Tony Abbott is a sexist, bully and his outdated social views are a threat to national cohesion and plurality

  43. the pro coalition media can not rely on margin of errors tomorrow

    coalition gets 43% there will be no abbott majority government

  44. [Palmer is a fruit loop yet bludgers here are singing his praises]

    the enemy of my enemy is almost my friend. depends how many ALP preferences are hiding in PUP.
    Not holding a lot of hope that PUP voters will fill in all the squares but could be interesting

  45. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 25m
    #ReachTEL Poll Preferred PM: Rudd 47.1 (+1.2) Abbott 52.9 (-1.2) #ausvotes

    And there’s the killer. Rudd hasn’t been able to pull off the same trick twice, which really shouldn’t surprise anybody. Abbott is the dodgiest Oppo Leader since – Downer? Latham? Snedden? – but he is still preferred to Rudd.

  48. DAve, they undermined that message at every turn, getting ccaught in serial reworkings of a return to surplus, and then slashing things like aid & single mother benefit in a desperate/ failed attempt to do it sooner.

    Totally mixed messages from Swan, who I agree, managed it well – but sold it poorly.

  50. WOW!! BUDGET EMERGENCY!!

    Abbott and Hockey have been sqwarking all year and that’s the best they can do?

    Their team of ‘experts’ has been working on this for EIGHT MONTHS and that’s the best they can do?

    Any competent bookkeeper could have done that in ten minutes on the back of an envelope.

    Vote Abbott, vote incompetent! Labor will win this now the LNP have stuffed up their Nanny Filter which has really pissed off all of the <35s. Onya, Rabbott!!!!

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