Galaxy and ReachTEL: 53-47; Essential Research 52-48

Two days out from the only one that counts, three more polls.

Three more polls have emerged over the past 24 hours, though some of them already seem like old news. ReachTEL in particular will shortly be superseded when the results of the third such poll in consecutive days are revealed on Seven Sunrise at 6am. All three polls, together with new state breakdowns, have been thrown into the BludgerTrack mix. In turn:

• A Galaxy phone poll of 1303 respondents has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition, 9% for the Greens and 5% for the Palmer United Party. Full results including attitudinal questions from GhostWhoVotes.

• ReachTEL has Labor’s primary vote at 32.7%, compared with 35.3% on the result from the day before, with the Coalition down from 44.2% to 43.6% and the Greens up from 9.7% to 10.0%. The Palmer United Party meanwhile charges onward from 4.4% to 6.1%. This poll too has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. UPDATE: No need to amend the headline, because today’s poll is apparently 53-47 as well.

• Essential Research has an online poll of 1035 respondents with Labor on 35% of the primary vote (steady on Monday’s result), the Coalition on 43% (down one) and the Greens on 10% (steady). I’m also told the poll has the Palmer United Party on 4%, as did Monday’s result. On two-party preferred the Coalition lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 on Monday.

UPDATE: Morgan has a poll of 3939 respondents conducted last night and the night before by SMS, phone (live interview I assume) and online which has Labor on 31.5%, the Coalition on 45%, the Greens on 9.5% and the Palmer United Party on 6.5%. The published two-party preferred figure is 53.5-46.5 to the Coalition, which I presume to be respondent-allocated. State breakdowns are promised this afternoon, and there will be a “final poll” both conducted and released this evening.

UPDATE 2: The Guardian has a Lonergan Research automated phone poll of 862 respondents showing the Coalition lead at a narrow 50.8-49.2, with primary votes of 34% for Labor, 42% for the Coalition, 14% for the Greens and a relatively modest 10% for “others”. It also features, for what it’s worth (not much in my experience), Senate voting intention: 29% Labor, 40% Coalition, 16% Greens and 8% “others”. This seems consistent with the general pattern of Senate polling to inflate the vote for the Greens (and, back in the day, the Democrats).

UPDATE 3: Channel Nine reports tomorrow’s Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,352 comments on “Galaxy and ReachTEL: 53-47; Essential Research 52-48”

Comments Page 3 of 48
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  1. Labor should continue to campaign against the PPL and block it in the Senate if in opposition. I would be a very weak policy to go to a DD on.

    At the start of the week I said the Liberals would get 85 to 90 seats. Rudd has performed well this week, especially on QandA, and I now think it will be Liberal 80 to 85 seats, still PM Tony Abbott.

  2. [ The party has distracted the electorate from its own achievements and from the nature of Tony Abbott.]

    Exactly right. Years of in-fighting and self-indulgence has turned people off Labor.

  4. Mark Latham doesn’t get much right, but I think his prediction of 97 seats to the coalition will be pretty close.

    Labor insiders saying that Dreyfuss might be in trouble.

  5. This editorial in The Age is worth bookmarking for anyone who would like to defend Labor “after the deluge”.
    It contains, in fact, a better statement of the “Labor Brand” than the party has been able to come up with.

    [As our readers know, we support Labor’s national broadband network strategy, its commitment to increasing the superannuation guarantee levy, its Gonski schools funding plan, and its shift from a carbon price to an emissions trading scheme. We also support the deal it forged between business and environmentalists that led to areas of Tasmania’s western wilderness being added to the World Heritage Area. In our view, these programs are initiatives towards generational change. They are visionary, forward-thinking and nation-building, not gimmicks devised to meet a three-year election cycle.

    Yet the Coalition would curb the scope of the NBN and defer the higher superannuation guarantee levy, despite the patent need to save as the population ages. The Coalition has failed to commit to the fifth and sixth years of funding on Gonski, the years of maximum investment, and it would claw back Tasmania’s World Heritage wilderness listing.]
    . . .
    [On the issue of trust, the Coalition’s own actions leave us with significant reservations. It has obfuscated and ducked critical issues, deliberately keeping voters uninformed about its savings plans or revenue-raising initiatives. Worse has been its breathtaking arrogance in cynically delaying until the last minute its policy costings – this, from the party that drafted the charter of budget honesty. When it comes to trusting Labor, we appreciate the public’s confidence may be so undone that a change of government could prove to be a circuit-breaker, injecting a short-term sense of stability. But The Age values policies above political opportunism; we do not advocate a vote simply for the sake of change.

    The Age believes in economic and social progress, in liberty and justice, in equity and compassion, and openness of government. We believe the role of government is to build a strong, fair nation for future generations, and not to pander to sectional interests. It is with these values in mind that we endorse the Labor Party in this important election.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/labors-policies-best-reflect-our-values-20130905-2t828.html#ixzz2e3eWU0VI

  7. Poroti
    [From Hartcher link. So it is now official Coalition debt is good Labor debt is Eeeeeevil ! Oh and confirmation Abbott is a lying scumbag.]
    The real blame for that lies not with Gillard, Rudd or the media, but Wayne Swan. He kept on about Costello’s budget cycle crap and restoring a surplus, even though the stimulus success proved it wrong. Swan wrecked Labor’s narrative, despite himself being a good economic manager.

  9. Abbott has called Murdoch a ‘hometown hero’ on Triple M this morning as he said Murdoch was an Australian and needed to be supported.

  11. Socrates

    I do not see the PPL ever getting to the Senate. The Liberals will do a financial review after the election and to their shock horror, will find that just like every ALP budget over the last 5 years, there is a massive backhole of $XX biliion, and programs have to be cut

    This has been done by every government in the western world for 50 years, except for Wayne Swann, therein lies a major reason for the ALP’s demise

  12. [Abbott has called Murdoch a ‘hometown hero’ on Triple M this morning as he said Murdoch was an Australian and needed to be supported.]
    Indeed. It must be heroic to order your flakes to make money for you by hacking the phones of murdered schoolgirls. Have people forgotten already?

  13. [Labor has seized on a stunning Coalition backflip on plans to enforce an opt-out internet filter, saying it shows the party has hidden agendas.

    Late yesterday it emerged the Coalition had released a policy which would have blocked adult content on internet and phone services, and people would have to opt out if they wanted unfiltered content.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-06/labor-seizes-on-coalition-filter-backflip/4939818

    As I said yesterday, they clearly thought they could just slip this past people in the dying days of the campaign.

    Now that it’s come out I reckon they will still try and get their net nanny in place, it just means they’ll have to be less cavalier about it.

  14. [Abbott has called Murdoch a ‘hometown hero’ on Triple M this morning as he said Murdoch was an Australian and needed to be supported.]

    Payment for services rendered.

    As I said the other day, Abbott refused to sell his arse to the independents 3 years ago because he was reserving it for Rupert.

  16. Appears Today’s Galaxy included some push polling questions to round out its descent into the gutter of pollsters.

    The question “some of Mr Rudd’s colleagues have said he was dysfunctional when last PM, do you think he has changed?” asked by Galaxy is push polling pure and simple.

    The fact it was after the voting intention question does not obviate

  17. Socrates

    Swan made a mistake but in many ways it was understandable. The Libs before 2010 election were going hard ,using their undeserved economic reputation, that they would produce a surplus in no time. The Labor economic Huns being of course incapable of doing so.
    Swan was suckered in to promising to march their Lying Lib’s .With the wall of noise about pink batts , school halls etc it was understandable why he sought to match the claims. Unfortunately he continued the claims for far too long.

  19. Predictions
    LNP win 13 Labor
    Lose Indi
    Gain New England & Lyne
    Minority Senate
    Lazarus rising in Qld
    Meguire Bob chased by creditors for losing too many bets.
    53.2 to 46.8 2 pp

  21. I “liked” Abbouts plan to give the billion dollar company Cadbury $16 million and that will be funded by cutting School Kids payment?
    In creasing small business tax, removing the superannuation co-contribution?

  25. Confessions, I think you place a lot if faith in the voters if you think ‘the LNP will spend too much middle class welfare on you’ would have been an effective scare.

    And if Clare did concede – he should never be considered for leadership I’d have him shot at dawn – but then it’s probably misreported anyway

  26. Someone just said that as the Greens support Abbott’s PPL scheme, how are Labor going to block it. It won’t be Labor – Big Business are getting ready to campaign against it – and with their deep pockets, a campaign such as that against the Mining Super Profits Tax is coming your way soon.

  27. A prime example of the ability of Libs like Turnbull (no one is denying his “barristerial” speed of thinking) to cover poor policies:

    He was handed the internet policy “five minutes” before going into an interview, yet was easily able to defend it as good policy.

    Tony Abbott, OTOH, defended himself as saying the wording was poor, implying that he hadn’t really understood it so it wasn’t his fault.

    Who would be the better leader, then? (rhetorical)

    Hah!

  28. “@mumbletwits: Unlike 2010, no interim Newspoll today, just final one incl Friday evening (it seems). Presumably a Nielsen tomorrow incl Fri evening too.”

  31. [Confessions, I think you place a lot if faith in the voters if you think ‘the LNP will spend too much middle class welfare on you’ would have been an effective scare. ]

    That particular message wouldn’t have flown, obviously.

    But highlighting Abbott’s reckless, irresponsible spending would have. Esp when the coalition have been running around screaming budget emergency and Labor waste.

  32. Now we know why Abbott has a plan to plant trees. To replace the ones to be logged in Tassie as he removes heritage listing on Tassie forests

  33. lizzie:

    Twitter established last night that the policy was written by Fletcher, without MT’s input. MT admitted he only saw the policy a few minutes before his JJJ debate with Albo.

    It’s chaos, and gives a bad impression competence wise.

  35. [The real blame for that lies not with Gillard, Rudd or the media, but Wayne Swan. He kept on about Costello’s budget cycle crap and restoring a surplus, even though the stimulus success proved it wrong. Swan wrecked Labor’s narrative, despite himself being a good economic manager.]

    I agree: they refused to code debt as counter- cyclical insurance, and paid the price.
    Note the first thing the LNP did was refuse to name a date of return to surplus.

  36. What’s the difference between Tony Abbott’s internet policy and a piece of lettuce?

    AT LEAST THE LETTUCE HAS A *LITTLE* BIT OF FIBRE

  37. State 2PP breakdowns very telling

    SA/Vic ALP ahead
    QLD/WA reverted back to national average
    NSW dragging everything else down

  39. Assume there’s nothing at all in Murdoch – but the rest of the media making merry with the LNPs farcical Internet filter cock up last night.

    Unfit for government

  41. confessions

    My point was that even though the policy was brought out at the last minute and apparently the Communications Shadow hadn’t been involved, someone like Turnbull is able to defend it smoothly. The Coalition are so much more practised at pulling the wool over lies and fabrications. Yet people “trust” them.

  43. I think Labor won the last week and will end up with 62 seats, with Rudd just failing to meet his 62 KPI.

    52.7-47.3

    Sophie to lose and the election to be lost in West Sydney.

    Plenty of nutters in the Senate as well.

  45. SPROCKET – Which is why the Age supports Labor and the SMH doesn’t.
    The Michael Pascoe article is an absolute ripper. He’s the reincarnation of Ian Verrender.

  47. sprocket

    I have been feeling for some time that it’s a pity that our “State of Origin” doesn’t automatically appear on our posts. It would help us to judge the emotional tone!

  48. [@GhostWhoVotes: #ReachTEL Poll Primary Votes: ALP 33.7 (+1.0) L/NP 43.5 (-0.1) GRN 10.2 (+0.2) PUP 7.0 (+0.9) #ausvotes]

    Could we be on track for a repeat of Bomber Beazley winning the 2PP and losing the seat count?

  50. Rocket Rocket@34

    I think Labor will win 60 seats, Katter and Wilkie their 2, and I am hoping very much (BK!!!) that Indi changes hands. I seem to remember in the last election was it Boerwar who said that a good well-organized independent could win Indi. Here’s hoping!

    60 seats sounds in the ball park and hopefully Indi changing hands, agree.

    Of course the tories not controlling the Senate is minimum I’m hoping for.

    Labor Leadership spill with Rudd ‘gracefully’ retiring from the parliament is also on the wish list but I’ll believe it if it happens.

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