Galaxy and ReachTEL: 53-47; Essential Research 52-48

Two days out from the only one that counts, three more polls.

Three more polls have emerged over the past 24 hours, though some of them already seem like old news. ReachTEL in particular will shortly be superseded when the results of the third such poll in consecutive days are revealed on Seven Sunrise at 6am. All three polls, together with new state breakdowns, have been thrown into the BludgerTrack mix. In turn:

• A Galaxy phone poll of 1303 respondents has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition, 9% for the Greens and 5% for the Palmer United Party. Full results including attitudinal questions from GhostWhoVotes.

• ReachTEL has Labor’s primary vote at 32.7%, compared with 35.3% on the result from the day before, with the Coalition down from 44.2% to 43.6% and the Greens up from 9.7% to 10.0%. The Palmer United Party meanwhile charges onward from 4.4% to 6.1%. This poll too has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. UPDATE: No need to amend the headline, because today’s poll is apparently 53-47 as well.

• Essential Research has an online poll of 1035 respondents with Labor on 35% of the primary vote (steady on Monday’s result), the Coalition on 43% (down one) and the Greens on 10% (steady). I’m also told the poll has the Palmer United Party on 4%, as did Monday’s result. On two-party preferred the Coalition lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 on Monday.

UPDATE: Morgan has a poll of 3939 respondents conducted last night and the night before by SMS, phone (live interview I assume) and online which has Labor on 31.5%, the Coalition on 45%, the Greens on 9.5% and the Palmer United Party on 6.5%. The published two-party preferred figure is 53.5-46.5 to the Coalition, which I presume to be respondent-allocated. State breakdowns are promised this afternoon, and there will be a “final poll” both conducted and released this evening.

UPDATE 2: The Guardian has a Lonergan Research automated phone poll of 862 respondents showing the Coalition lead at a narrow 50.8-49.2, with primary votes of 34% for Labor, 42% for the Coalition, 14% for the Greens and a relatively modest 10% for “others”. It also features, for what it’s worth (not much in my experience), Senate voting intention: 29% Labor, 40% Coalition, 16% Greens and 8% “others”. This seems consistent with the general pattern of Senate polling to inflate the vote for the Greens (and, back in the day, the Democrats).

UPDATE 3: Channel Nine reports tomorrow’s Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 54-46.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,352 comments on “Galaxy and ReachTEL: 53-47; Essential Research 52-48”

Comments Page 2 of 48
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  2. rummel
    Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 7:12 am | PERMALINK

    Another hung parliament would be a nightmare. if labor win, i hope they have a clear majority, though you still have to question the legitimacy of any labor government.

    ——————————————

    The one who will be iilegit will be newsltd/abbott coalition , deception is the only reason they would be elected

  6. [Meguire Bob
    Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 7:19 am | PERMALINK
    mod lib and the margin of error ?]

    Why would you ask for the margin of error? you would denier the results anyway 🙂

  7. Morning All

    Hoping for another hung parliament with Clive as PM – you know it makes sense 😉

    Actually, a hung parliament with Adam Bandt as PM – now that’s the way to go 🙂

    Labor can still win this on Palmer preferences imo – don’t lose hope

    Excuse my language but #filterfuckup raises a hell of a lot of questions for me – what other policies do they have that we, or the shadow ministers, don’t know about??? Who is running the Liberal Party???

    Where is ReachTEL – has it been pulled???

  8. rummel

    the margin of error in the pro coalition media polls will always favour the coalition to suite thier agenda

    its likely 50/50 going into tomorrow

  11. Good Morning

    24 is running with filtergate as its political story of the day. No trying to put it to the electronic equivalent of page 13.

    So credit to them.

  15. [quote]what other policies do they have that we, or the shadow ministers, don’t know about??? [/quote]

    They have a policy which says ‘every first-born son in Australia must die.’ If they don’t get it through the senate, they’ll DD and we’ll all be going back to the polls.

  17. Rummel,

    Why would a hung parliament be “a nightmare”? This one seemed to be quite productive, even if one does not agree with what was actually passed.

    Having to engage in the occasional negotiation versus ruling by collective diktat doesn’t seem so bad.

  18. rummel
    Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 7:25 am | PERMALINK

    Your softening up MB…… 50/50 eh! good chance of a Labor defeat.

    ———————-

    I always stated if the coalition primary vote is under 45% , there will be no abbott majority government

  20. [mari
    Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 7:28 am | PERMALINK
    MEGUIRE BOB 58

    Thank you for putting the “idiot” in his box]

    cranky!

  22. The primaries for Reachtel on Sunrise were:

    ALP: 34 (+1)
    LNP: 43 (-1)
    Grn: 10 steady
    pUP: 7 (+1)

    Results are not on site yet so don’t have exact numbers. LNP vote softening, PUP still surging.

  24. If the general public saw Hockey and Robb yesterday, the Coalition wouldn’t win a seat in Australia. Talk about a couple of shonky used car salesmen!

  25. [quote]Results are not on site yet so don’t have exact numbers. LNP vote softening, PUP still surging.[/quote]

    PUP probably nicked some more votes off Liberal. They will come back with preferences if that’s the case.

  28. Based on those primaries for Reachtel I see it more as 52/48 or even 51/49 but is depending on preference flows from PUP and Others. Greens will be at 80% the rest, who knows.

    Reckon this is going to be closer than the media think.

    Since when has 53/47 been a wipeout has stated on Sunrise. These shows keep losing credibility then again you have to have some before you lose it.

  33. [Meguire Bob
    Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 7:31 am | PERMALINK
    mod lib @ 64

    you arent confident of an coalition victory by the sounds of it]

    I appreciate your bravado but there is next to no chance of an ALP win, even in minority government.

    What everyone is trying to work out is how the preferences are going to flow, how PUP and KAP are going to go and what is going to happen with their preferences. That is harder to decipher, but the Coalition will win 52% to 55% of the TPP vote, that is for certain!

  39. From what Abbott/Hockey have put out as their costings and what they plan there is obviously no budget “emergency”

    They just stayed true to form and lied to the public that there was one.

  40. Typical Liberal party.

    We can afford a regressive, expensive PPL which gives taxpayer dollars to well paid women for 6 months.

    We can afford the inefficient money churn direct (in)action which gives taxpayer dollars to multi-million/billion dollar companies.

    We can afford to restore middle class welfare pork which gives taxpayer dollars to householders which don’t need it.

    We can afford to abolish a mining tax which funds the delivery of programs and services to all Australians at the expense of multi-billion dollar, offshore-based companies.

    But we can’t afford to deliver nation-building infrastructure projects that will serve the economy as it grows:
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/18802538/wa-projects-ok-for-now-abbott/

    And how unsprisement the usually assertive Colin Barnett has nothing to say about this!

    What a crock!!

  42. [River
    Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 7:47 am | PERMALINK
    Barry Cassidy was not happy with Rudd]

    Nothing further was required in that post! 🙂

  43. Libs saying they are sorry their hidden Internet Filter policy slipped out -what other policies and cuts are in bottom drawer

  44. Both ALP and Liberal marginal seat polling had shown that very little had change for 3 weeks, in fact if anything, the late shift is toward the Liberals, just like every election since 1993.

    If you guys really think the result will be 50/50. ALP internal polling must have forgot to poll 20 seats that they will win …. there are some juicy odds that to be taken

  45. Morning all. Labor has had a better week, the coalition costings are crap, and the Liberal vote is softening for good reason. Yet they will still win.

    I think this is the key point in the Galaxy poll: only 28% said the Liberals deserve to win, but 44% said Labor deserved to be thrown out. The party has distracted the electorate from its own achievements and from the nature of Tony Abbott.

  47. So to get a $6 billion improvement on the budget over 4 years, that $1.5b a year

    Abbott will cut $4.5 billion from foreign aid.

  48. The reportage this morning of the coalition’s costings release illustrates my point about how Labor has missed the mark with its attacks on the coalition over the economy.

    They should’ve been pointing out the fiscal profligacy of the coalition which would’ve exposed their hollow rhetoric over debt and spending, and perhaps given some voters cause for alarm at the disconnect between their perceived lived experience and the reckless spending of Abbott and Hockey.

    It also would’ve meant that reports such as these would’ve actually meant something to your average voter:

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/hockey-closes-campaign-with-a-joke-20130905-2t7ab.html

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/ill-keep-my-word-abbott-20130905-2t89r.html

    But alas it’s too late now.

  49. BK

    From Hartcher link. So it is now official Coalition debt is good Labor debt is Eeeeeevil ! Oh and confirmation Abbott is a lying scumbag.

    [An Abbott government would let the federal deficit blow out rather than break a spending promise, Tony Abbott says.]

    [Mr Abbott told Fairfax Media in an interview: ”You’ll notice we haven’t said we’re going to get to a surplus by a particular date.”]

  50. [quote]Libs saying they are sorry their hidden Internet Filter policy slipped out -what other policies and cuts are in bottom drawer[/quote]

    They have a policy which says they will force the CSIRO to breed a horde of flesh-eating locusts, a horde they will then release in the hippy, Greeny state of Victoria.

    If they don’t get it through the Senate, they will DD and we’ll all be heading back to the polls.

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