Newspoll and Nielsen: 54-46; Morgan: 53.5-46.5

Three more big-sample polls for those of you still wondering what the next three years might have in store. Alternatively, you could just wait a couple of hours.

The last of the major polls go as follows:

• A Newspoll survey conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from over 2500 respondents has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 46% and the Greens on 9%, for a commanding Coalition lead of 54-46 on two-party preferred. Full breakdowns here.

• Nielsen concurs with Newspoll on both major parties’ primary votes in its poll of 1431 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, but has the Greens two points higher at 11%. Both The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald have exasperatingly declined to provide breakdowns, but from what I can gather from the printed copy, the poll has the Coalition ahead 56-44 in New South Wales and behind 51-49 in Victoria, while in Queensland Labor’s primary vote is on just 27% (under two Senate quotas, for those of you with an eye on that kind of thing).

• Morgan has a poll of 4937 respondents conducted by SMS, online and live interview phone polling which has Labor at just 31.5%, with the Coalition on 44%, the Greens on 10.5% and the Palmer United Party on 6.5%. This pans out to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but to 54.5-45.5 on the previous election preferences method used by Nielsen and Newspoll.

BludgerTrack has been updated with all of the above, and it continues to offer a rosier assessment for Labor than the betting markets in particular would suggest (though note that I’ve knocked on the head my idea of revising the preference model to grant Labor a bigger share of the Palmer United Party vote in Queensland, which has made two seats’ difference). As I’ve noted a number of times, this is mostly down to the consistent tendency of electorate-level polling to produce worse results for Labor than that national and statewide polling that are the bread and butter of BludgerTrack. To illustrate this point, and also for your general convenience, I offer below a complete listing to all such polls published during the campaign. Averages are also provided for the swings in each state, and by each pollster. What this suggests is that the automated phone polling by Galaxy, which has generally produced highly plausible results, has not been too far out of line with national polling, and it has generally offered highly plausible results. The live interview phone polling of Newspoll looks to have performed similarly, but that’s because its sample includes the unusual cases of New England and Lyne. Beyond that three automated phone pollsters who are relatively new to the game, and whose consistent findings of huge Coalition swings should accordingly be treated with caution.

Key: NP=Newspoll, RT=ReachTEL, Gal.=Galaxy, Lon.=Lonergan, JWS=JWS Research.

NEW SOUTH WALES
				N	ALP	L-NP	GRN	2PP	SWING
Dobell/RobertsonNP	13/8	505	35	50	8	46	-7
Lindsay		Lon.	14/8	1038	32	60	3	36	-15
Lyne		NP	14/8	504	26	51	7	41	+3
New England	NP	14/8	504	24	53	5	34	+1
Kingsford Smith	RT	15/8	610	38	47	10	48	-7
McMahon		RT	15/8	631	45	50	2	47	-11
Blaxland	RT	15/8	636	50	47	3	52	-10
Bennelong	RT	15/8	631	28	64	8	35	-12
Macquarie	JWS	15/8	710	35	51	8	45	-4
Lindsay		JWS	15/8	578	35	57	3	39	-12
Greenway	JWS	15/8	570	44	46	1	51	0
Banks		JWS	15/8	542	43	50	4	47	-4
Werriwa		Gal.	20/8	548	41	48	5	48	-9
Reid		Gal.	20/8	557	38	50	9	47	-6
Parramatta	Gal.	20/8	561	44	45	4	50	-4
Lindsay		Gal.	20/8	566	41	50	3	46	-5
Greenway	Gal.	20/8	585	45	46	3	49	-2
Barton		Gal.	20/8	551	44	44	9	52	-5
Banks		Gal.	20/8	557	40	47	6	48	-3
Barton		Gal.	20/8	575	44	44	9	52	-5
Banks		Gal.	20/8	575	40	47	6	48	-3
K-S/Page/E-M	NP	26/8	601	37	47	11	48	-7
ALP marginals*	NP	26/8	800	34	52	7	43	-9
McMahon		JWS	28/8	482	44	52	3	47	-11

Average swing								-6.1

* Parramatta/Reid/Banks/Lindsay/Greenway.								

VICTORIA
				N	ALP	L-NP	GRN	2PP	SWING
Deakin		RT	15/8	619	36	50	13	47	-4
Corangamite	RT	15/8	633	36	54	10	44	-6
Melbourne	RT	15/8	860	35	24	35
Indi		RT	15/8	611	18	47	6
Corangamite	JWS	15/8	587	36	48	10	47	-3
Aston		JWS	15/8	577	29	59	8	37	-12
La Trobe	Gal.	20/8	575	36	45	12	49	-3
Corangamite	Gal.	20/8	575	35	52	9	44	-6
Chisholm	Gal.	20/8	575	46	45	7	48	-8
ALP marginals*	NP	28/8	800	34	47	13	47	-4
McEwen		JWS	28/8	540	35	47	6	45	-14
Bendigo		JWS	28/8	588	40	40	9	51	-9

Average swing								-6.9

* La Trobe/Deakin/Corangamite								

QUEENSLAND
				N	ALP	L-NP	GRN	2PP	SWING
Griffith	RT	05/8	702	48	43	8	46	-12
Forde		RT	08/8	725	40	48	4	46	-2
Forde		Lon.	15/8	1160	34	56	4	40	-8
Forde		JWS	15/8	568	33	54	4	40	-8
Brisbane	JWS	15/8	607	36	50	9	46	-3
LNP marginals*	NP	20/8	1382	32	54	5	40	-8
Forde		NP	20/8	502	38	48	5	46	-2
Griffith	Lon.	21/8	958	38	47	11	48	-10
Griffith	NP	22/8	500	37	48	12	48	-10
Lilley		JWS	28/8	757	40	48	5	46	-7
Griffith	JWS	28/8	551	48	40	7	57	-1
Blair		Gal.	29/8	604	39	40	8	50	-4
Dawson		Gal.	29/8	550	34	48	4	43	-5
Griffith	Gal.	29/8	655	41	37	12	54	-4
Herbert		Gal.	29/8	589	36	47	6	45	-3
ALP marginals**	NP	30/8	800	38	42	8	49	-4

Average swing								-5.9

* Brisbane/Forde/Longman/Herbert/Dawson/Bonner/Flynn/Fisher
** Moreton/Petrie/Lilley/Capricornia/Blair/Rankin/Oxley								

WESTERN AUSTRALIA
				N	ALP	L-NP	GRN	2PP	SWING
Brand		Gal.	29/8	660	42	42	10	52	-1
Hasluck		Gal.	29/8	553	34	46	10	45	-4
Perth		Gal.	29/8	550	47	35	13	58	+2

Average swing								-1.2								

SOUTH AUSTRALIA
				N	ALP	L-NP	GRN	2PP	SWING
Hindmarsh	Gal.	22/8	586	41	44	10	50	-6
Wakefield	Gal.	26/8	575	44	35	7	55	-6
Adelaide	Gal.	29/8	571	40	39	12	54	-4

Average swing								-5.0

TASMANIA
				N	ALP	L-NP	GRN	2PP	SWING
Bass		RT	22/8	541	30	52	8	42	-15
Braddon		RT	22/8	588	36	51	4	43	-14
Denison		RT	22/8	563	19	24	11	
Franklin	RT	22/8	544	30	39	16	51	-10
Lyons		RT	22/8	549	30	47	11	44	-18
Bass		RT	03/9	659	28	54	10	41	-16

Average swing								-14.7

AVERAGE SWING BY POLLSTER
				N	 	 	 	 	SWING
Galaxy				22					-4.3
Newspoll			10					-4.7
JWS Research			13					-6.8
ReachTEL			16					-8.6
Lonergan			3					-11.3

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

973 comments on “Newspoll and Nielsen: 54-46; Morgan: 53.5-46.5”

  1. 831
    David Mills
    [People who predict the imminent collapse of the Green vote once the voters “wake up to them” are indulging in wishful thinking as the Green vote in Western democracies is generally at 10% or above. The Greens are not going to go away in the West anytime soon.]

    Been saying for a long time that Greens and Labor are going to have to figure out some kind of constructive ongoing working relationship if the progressive side of politics is to have any chance of getting their agenda implemented.

  2. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 1m
    #Newspoll Exit Poll Predicted ALP losses by state: NSW 14 VIC 3 (and 1 gain) QLD 7 WA 1 SA 0 Tasmania not included #ausvotes

    7 losses in Qld? Is that all but Kev?

  3. From an earlier link they are talking about Abbott but by golly does it sound like Menzies House mice.

    [The carbon tax is toxic. Australia has too much debt. The cost of living is rising. It doesn’t matter how empirically this shit is disproved; somehow, like a fucking average horror movie, the same tiresome desiccated monster pops its reanimated head up and starts roaring once more]

  4. [Sean Tisme
    Posted Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 4:30 pm | PERMALINK
    Just went and voted.

    Think I may have made the Labor How-To-Vote Card girl cry… funny stuff!]

    That is completely uncalled for Sean.

    The rest of us are just putting up our little fingers and bending them

  5. Mod Lib,

    It was a bit of tongue in cheek tom foolery… i’m surprised someone like you took the bait. 🙂

    I avoid all How-To-Voters like the Plague

  6. [The ALP folk are going to be quite depressed tonight, I don’t think that kind of comment is really needed.

    Lets show a little class, eh?]

    You’ve gotta be kidding… most of us have been depressed since about 2008

    Today we get to celebrate!

  7. And so, on September 7 2013, Tony Abbott claims the Prime Ministership, on behalf of Rupert Murdoch, the privileged few, and of course a great many stupid and shallow people.

  8. Sean,

    Enjoy it while it lasts. Now its time for you to learn what “unfit for government” means. Now its time for you to sit back and watch Abbott fail time after time to get his garbage legislation through the Senate and for his ragtag bunch of “ministers” stuff up.

    Maybe you and your Liberal mates should chip in for a punching bag for the House of Reps chamber. Tony is gonna need it 😀

    Pass the popcorn!

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