The last of the major polls go as follows:
• A Newspoll survey conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from over 2500 respondents has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 46% and the Greens on 9%, for a commanding Coalition lead of 54-46 on two-party preferred. Full breakdowns here.
• Nielsen concurs with Newspoll on both major parties’ primary votes in its poll of 1431 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, but has the Greens two points higher at 11%. Both The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald have exasperatingly declined to provide breakdowns, but from what I can gather from the printed copy, the poll has the Coalition ahead 56-44 in New South Wales and behind 51-49 in Victoria, while in Queensland Labor’s primary vote is on just 27% (under two Senate quotas, for those of you with an eye on that kind of thing).
• Morgan has a poll of 4937 respondents conducted by SMS, online and live interview phone polling which has Labor at just 31.5%, with the Coalition on 44%, the Greens on 10.5% and the Palmer United Party on 6.5%. This pans out to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but to 54.5-45.5 on the previous election preferences method used by Nielsen and Newspoll.
BludgerTrack has been updated with all of the above, and it continues to offer a rosier assessment for Labor than the betting markets in particular would suggest (though note that I’ve knocked on the head my idea of revising the preference model to grant Labor a bigger share of the Palmer United Party vote in Queensland, which has made two seats’ difference). As I’ve noted a number of times, this is mostly down to the consistent tendency of electorate-level polling to produce worse results for Labor than that national and statewide polling that are the bread and butter of BludgerTrack. To illustrate this point, and also for your general convenience, I offer below a complete listing to all such polls published during the campaign. Averages are also provided for the swings in each state, and by each pollster. What this suggests is that the automated phone polling by Galaxy, which has generally produced highly plausible results, has not been too far out of line with national polling, and it has generally offered highly plausible results. The live interview phone polling of Newspoll looks to have performed similarly, but that’s because its sample includes the unusual cases of New England and Lyne. Beyond that three automated phone pollsters who are relatively new to the game, and whose consistent findings of huge Coalition swings should accordingly be treated with caution.
Key: NP=Newspoll, RT=ReachTEL, Gal.=Galaxy, Lon.=Lonergan, JWS=JWS Research.
NEW SOUTH WALES N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Dobell/RobertsonNP 13/8 505 35 50 8 46 -7 Lindsay Lon. 14/8 1038 32 60 3 36 -15 Lyne NP 14/8 504 26 51 7 41 +3 New England NP 14/8 504 24 53 5 34 +1 Kingsford Smith RT 15/8 610 38 47 10 48 -7 McMahon RT 15/8 631 45 50 2 47 -11 Blaxland RT 15/8 636 50 47 3 52 -10 Bennelong RT 15/8 631 28 64 8 35 -12 Macquarie JWS 15/8 710 35 51 8 45 -4 Lindsay JWS 15/8 578 35 57 3 39 -12 Greenway JWS 15/8 570 44 46 1 51 0 Banks JWS 15/8 542 43 50 4 47 -4 Werriwa Gal. 20/8 548 41 48 5 48 -9 Reid Gal. 20/8 557 38 50 9 47 -6 Parramatta Gal. 20/8 561 44 45 4 50 -4 Lindsay Gal. 20/8 566 41 50 3 46 -5 Greenway Gal. 20/8 585 45 46 3 49 -2 Barton Gal. 20/8 551 44 44 9 52 -5 Banks Gal. 20/8 557 40 47 6 48 -3 Barton Gal. 20/8 575 44 44 9 52 -5 Banks Gal. 20/8 575 40 47 6 48 -3 K-S/Page/E-M NP 26/8 601 37 47 11 48 -7 ALP marginals* NP 26/8 800 34 52 7 43 -9 McMahon JWS 28/8 482 44 52 3 47 -11 Average swing -6.1 * Parramatta/Reid/Banks/Lindsay/Greenway. VICTORIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Deakin RT 15/8 619 36 50 13 47 -4 Corangamite RT 15/8 633 36 54 10 44 -6 Melbourne RT 15/8 860 35 24 35 Indi RT 15/8 611 18 47 6 Corangamite JWS 15/8 587 36 48 10 47 -3 Aston JWS 15/8 577 29 59 8 37 -12 La Trobe Gal. 20/8 575 36 45 12 49 -3 Corangamite Gal. 20/8 575 35 52 9 44 -6 Chisholm Gal. 20/8 575 46 45 7 48 -8 ALP marginals* NP 28/8 800 34 47 13 47 -4 McEwen JWS 28/8 540 35 47 6 45 -14 Bendigo JWS 28/8 588 40 40 9 51 -9 Average swing -6.9 * La Trobe/Deakin/Corangamite QUEENSLAND N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Griffith RT 05/8 702 48 43 8 46 -12 Forde RT 08/8 725 40 48 4 46 -2 Forde Lon. 15/8 1160 34 56 4 40 -8 Forde JWS 15/8 568 33 54 4 40 -8 Brisbane JWS 15/8 607 36 50 9 46 -3 LNP marginals* NP 20/8 1382 32 54 5 40 -8 Forde NP 20/8 502 38 48 5 46 -2 Griffith Lon. 21/8 958 38 47 11 48 -10 Griffith NP 22/8 500 37 48 12 48 -10 Lilley JWS 28/8 757 40 48 5 46 -7 Griffith JWS 28/8 551 48 40 7 57 -1 Blair Gal. 29/8 604 39 40 8 50 -4 Dawson Gal. 29/8 550 34 48 4 43 -5 Griffith Gal. 29/8 655 41 37 12 54 -4 Herbert Gal. 29/8 589 36 47 6 45 -3 ALP marginals** NP 30/8 800 38 42 8 49 -4 Average swing -5.9 * Brisbane/Forde/Longman/Herbert/Dawson/Bonner/Flynn/Fisher ** Moreton/Petrie/Lilley/Capricornia/Blair/Rankin/Oxley WESTERN AUSTRALIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Brand Gal. 29/8 660 42 42 10 52 -1 Hasluck Gal. 29/8 553 34 46 10 45 -4 Perth Gal. 29/8 550 47 35 13 58 +2 Average swing -1.2 SOUTH AUSTRALIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Hindmarsh Gal. 22/8 586 41 44 10 50 -6 Wakefield Gal. 26/8 575 44 35 7 55 -6 Adelaide Gal. 29/8 571 40 39 12 54 -4 Average swing -5.0 TASMANIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Bass RT 22/8 541 30 52 8 42 -15 Braddon RT 22/8 588 36 51 4 43 -14 Denison RT 22/8 563 19 24 11 Franklin RT 22/8 544 30 39 16 51 -10 Lyons RT 22/8 549 30 47 11 44 -18 Bass RT 03/9 659 28 54 10 41 -16 Average swing -14.7 AVERAGE SWING BY POLLSTER N SWING Galaxy 22 -4.3 Newspoll 10 -4.7 JWS Research 13 -6.8 ReachTEL 16 -8.6 Lonergan 3 -11.3
TEN claiming extending lead:
TEN News @channeltennews 6m
LNP extends lead in Ten News 4pm @roymorganonline exit poll – Primary Vote & Two Party Preferred #AusVotes #AusPol pic.twitter.com/fUz46o5x9s
GRN vote is massive there.
Thats 2010 levels.
48-52 huh?
But I thought it was an epic landslide when I read the news – YESTERDAY 😛
Rua
Yes they always use Newspoll. they then usually interview the guy and go thought the questions
lizzie
Hey, didn’t get back to you the other day re being conditioned to thinking it’s not hot till its 35C.
I remember all of us (siblings & friends) hounding mum and dad, or their mums and dads, to take us to the pool when the temp hit 70F – because our local pool wouldn’t open until that temperature.
And that’s 21C!!
So, I reckon you’re right.
BTW, how did your mum go with sorting out who to vote for?
LNP extends lead in Ten News
Yeah: from 48-52, to 48-52.
This is the sort of ‘extension’ Ill be recommending to Ms LE for our house.
Labor and Green supporters in Barton have behaved in a shameful manner. Well at least they have many years to look forward to in opposition.
Antony still not calling it? To quote Kerry Packer’s last words: “How f*cking long is this going to take?”
Liberal HTV workers
________________
At a Greensborough booth some elections ago…the Libs were short of workers and brought some Indian people from the western suburbs…told them they would get lunch and after many hours on the job the Libs must have forgotten them
No lunch and no relieving workers…they had a very long hungry day and became alarmed that they were being left at the booth after 6.00 pm no response from Lib headquarterstill very late
I think they were very angry and said they wouldn’t do so again
I am not going to bother with entrail reading, as far as exit polls and other indicators are concerned. I locked my prediction in, I am going to wait until the proper count.
itsthevibe:
Antony Green called the election for the coalition last night on 7pm news.
[Yes they always use Newspoll. they then usually interview the guy and go thought the questions]
Hmmm I thought they used Essential in 2010, may be wrong.
Don’t tell Centre about the good predictions for the Green vote It will devestate him
he has predicted a wipe-out
@Alasdair Nicholson/906
I seen more posts about liberals being dishonest than Labor/Greens.
I remembered I wrote this a few months ago, as a prediction of how election night will be on here (Some of the details have changed because it was from when Gillard was still PM):
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/06/25/newspoll-quarterly-and-jws-research-labor-seats-polling/?comment_page=26/#comment-1676758
@Carey/909
Morgen polling is mixed of both prepolling and others.
I get a feeling there might be an extra point in the Green preferences for Labor this time around – Abbott turning his back on action on climate change will make many that hate Labor think twice
[Antony Green called the election for the coalition last night on 7pm news.]
Other than that delusional 12 or so percent that last night’s polls revealed, who hasn’t called it for the Coalition?
I haven’t watched any TV election coverage today, and The Age is still in its plastic wrapping. If your side is going to win I guess you’d lap all that up, but I want to be as far from it as possible. I will watch the count, because there are some interesting seats, but I would prefer that 6.00 pm not arrive. I will not listen to either leader’s speech. In fact my wish is to get through Abbott’s time as PM without hearing or reading a single word he says.
Wal Kolla re over egg ….
All languages use various forms of methaphors and similies
I think from memory in German one says that if a thing is close it’s a”cat’s spring” away
In English we’d say” a stone’s throw away”
[triton
Posted Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 4:10 pm | Permalink
I haven’t watched any TV election coverage today, and The Age is still in its plastic wrapping. If your side is going to win I guess you’d lap all that up, but I want to be as far from it as possible. I will watch the count, because there are some interesting seats, but I would prefer that 6.00 pm not arrive. I will not listen to either leader’s speech. In fact my wish is to get through Abbott’s time as PM without hearing or reading a single word he says.]
How will you be able to make an informed decision about who to vote for at the next election? 🙂
Hi kezza
You sound as if you’ve had a good day.
My mother voted above the line in the Senate and gave a lot of thought to numbering the HOR vote. I’d printed the candidates out for her in large black letters and she spent some time working out the order. Took her list with her so she’d get it right and happily (on my arm) toddled past all the HTV bods.
She did better than I did. I was so busy helping her (almost blind) that I messed up my own paper and had to go back for a replacement 🙁
If Morgan is suggesting 52/48 then it won’t be pretty.
How many of the tight seats the media have obsessed over will stay as they normally do?
@davidwh/922
As in?
@hughriminton: The #electionproject set to go @channelten from 6pm AEST. Top political talent and an open bar. What could go wrong? http://t.co/HI1rHkLbnf
Newspoll exit about to drop
Alasdair Nicholson
Right wingers worldwide are proven time and time again to be more dishonest in election campaigning. It’s congenital.
Zoidlord as in Morgan tends to be a little Labor friendly so it’s likely to be worse than Morgan indicates.
deblonay @ 907,
The most unforgettable example of this, in my opinion, is when the Romney campaign cancelled their staffer’s credit cards in the middle of the night.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/helaineolen/2012/11/08/mitt-romneys-campaign-cancels-staffers-credit-cards-in-the-middle-of-the-night/
Which led to some very interested and surprised people checking out at the hotel the following morning.
For fun Hugh Rimington informs me that Bob Ellis may be commenting on Nine tonight.
[A powerful young polling booth officer from the Australian Electoral Commission caused havoc this afternoon when he ordered the media to get out of the polling booth at St Paul’s Anglican Church in Brisbane’s east, where Kevin Rudd was to cast his vote.
“You don’t have the relevant permission,” the polling place liaison officer said, blocking the cameras and standing in front of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.
He was perhaps unaware his demands were being live-streamed to a national audience.]
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/special-features/australian-electoral-commission-official-causes-scene-at-kevin-rudd8217s-voting-booth/story-fnho52jo-1226714017312
Love it.
@davidwh/928
Morgan hasn’t been Labor friendly though, and greens been gaining as well as 0.5 to LNP.
[zoidlord
Posted Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 4:18 pm | Permalink
@davidwh/928
Morgan hasn’t been Labor friendly though, and greens been gaining as well as 0.5 to LNP.]
They’ve been more Labor friendly than others.
I don’t think it’ll be quite the wipeout some are suggesting but I’d still expect to see the Coalition with about 92 seats.
“@SamCD01: SKY NEWS EXIT POLL: Coalition 97 (+25), ALP 51 (-21), Independent 2 (-3), Greens 0 (-1) #ausvotes”
Tsunami
And i get the prize!!!
Coalition +24 on Sky News Exit Poll
But – they say no seat change in Tasmania.
Smells cheesy.
“@SamCD01: SKY NEWS EXIT POLL: NSW, 14 seat gain for Coalition, QLD 7, Vic 3, Tas 0, SA 0, WA 1 #ausvotes”
We will find out soon enough in any case but I suspect we are probably looking at a result closer to 53/47.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 36s
#Newspoll Exit Poll Seat Estimate: ALP 51 L/NP 97 GRN 0 IND 2 #ausvotes
“@SamCD01: SKY NEWS EXIT POLL:
Primary – Labor 36% (-7.1%), Coalition 45% (+3.7%) #ausvotes”
The Morgan exit poll says PUP is polling 9% in Queensland. If that is true (and that 9% is concentrated outside Brisbane to be more like 15 to 20%) then either PUP or KAP (who preference each other before the ALP) will be winning LNP held seats on ALP preferences unless the LNP reaches 50% of the primary vote.
There are a few assumptions in the above but I hope Antony Green has his computer set up to do PUP or KAP vs. LNP 2PP in seats such as Flynn and Herbert.
Well its all down to those preference assumptions.
Quick question.
Where do political parties get their details about residents from? OH was surprised to get a birthday card from Tony Smith last week which quoted his age.
As he hates birthday cards etc, this wouldn’t have gained any votes!!
Add 3 seats to tas and one to sa.
Thats over a century to lnp.
Newspoll gives 36% primary?
2PP seems dodgy.
Newpoll is a joke, combining NSW & Qld marginals then trying to make it meaningful.
I mean seat projection.
@ruawake/946
Yeah something dodgy there.
New thread.
Is Newspoll using the same formula as the ones Fox was relying on?
Will we see Brian Loughane do a Karl Rove?