The last of the major polls go as follows:
• A Newspoll survey conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from over 2500 respondents has Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 46% and the Greens on 9%, for a commanding Coalition lead of 54-46 on two-party preferred. Full breakdowns here.
• Nielsen concurs with Newspoll on both major parties’ primary votes in its poll of 1431 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, but has the Greens two points higher at 11%. Both The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald have exasperatingly declined to provide breakdowns, but from what I can gather from the printed copy, the poll has the Coalition ahead 56-44 in New South Wales and behind 51-49 in Victoria, while in Queensland Labor’s primary vote is on just 27% (under two Senate quotas, for those of you with an eye on that kind of thing).
• Morgan has a poll of 4937 respondents conducted by SMS, online and live interview phone polling which has Labor at just 31.5%, with the Coalition on 44%, the Greens on 10.5% and the Palmer United Party on 6.5%. This pans out to 53.5-46.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but to 54.5-45.5 on the previous election preferences method used by Nielsen and Newspoll.
BludgerTrack has been updated with all of the above, and it continues to offer a rosier assessment for Labor than the betting markets in particular would suggest (though note that I’ve knocked on the head my idea of revising the preference model to grant Labor a bigger share of the Palmer United Party vote in Queensland, which has made two seats’ difference). As I’ve noted a number of times, this is mostly down to the consistent tendency of electorate-level polling to produce worse results for Labor than that national and statewide polling that are the bread and butter of BludgerTrack. To illustrate this point, and also for your general convenience, I offer below a complete listing to all such polls published during the campaign. Averages are also provided for the swings in each state, and by each pollster. What this suggests is that the automated phone polling by Galaxy, which has generally produced highly plausible results, has not been too far out of line with national polling, and it has generally offered highly plausible results. The live interview phone polling of Newspoll looks to have performed similarly, but that’s because its sample includes the unusual cases of New England and Lyne. Beyond that three automated phone pollsters who are relatively new to the game, and whose consistent findings of huge Coalition swings should accordingly be treated with caution.
Key: NP=Newspoll, RT=ReachTEL, Gal.=Galaxy, Lon.=Lonergan, JWS=JWS Research.
NEW SOUTH WALES N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Dobell/RobertsonNP 13/8 505 35 50 8 46 -7 Lindsay Lon. 14/8 1038 32 60 3 36 -15 Lyne NP 14/8 504 26 51 7 41 +3 New England NP 14/8 504 24 53 5 34 +1 Kingsford Smith RT 15/8 610 38 47 10 48 -7 McMahon RT 15/8 631 45 50 2 47 -11 Blaxland RT 15/8 636 50 47 3 52 -10 Bennelong RT 15/8 631 28 64 8 35 -12 Macquarie JWS 15/8 710 35 51 8 45 -4 Lindsay JWS 15/8 578 35 57 3 39 -12 Greenway JWS 15/8 570 44 46 1 51 0 Banks JWS 15/8 542 43 50 4 47 -4 Werriwa Gal. 20/8 548 41 48 5 48 -9 Reid Gal. 20/8 557 38 50 9 47 -6 Parramatta Gal. 20/8 561 44 45 4 50 -4 Lindsay Gal. 20/8 566 41 50 3 46 -5 Greenway Gal. 20/8 585 45 46 3 49 -2 Barton Gal. 20/8 551 44 44 9 52 -5 Banks Gal. 20/8 557 40 47 6 48 -3 Barton Gal. 20/8 575 44 44 9 52 -5 Banks Gal. 20/8 575 40 47 6 48 -3 K-S/Page/E-M NP 26/8 601 37 47 11 48 -7 ALP marginals* NP 26/8 800 34 52 7 43 -9 McMahon JWS 28/8 482 44 52 3 47 -11 Average swing -6.1 * Parramatta/Reid/Banks/Lindsay/Greenway. VICTORIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Deakin RT 15/8 619 36 50 13 47 -4 Corangamite RT 15/8 633 36 54 10 44 -6 Melbourne RT 15/8 860 35 24 35 Indi RT 15/8 611 18 47 6 Corangamite JWS 15/8 587 36 48 10 47 -3 Aston JWS 15/8 577 29 59 8 37 -12 La Trobe Gal. 20/8 575 36 45 12 49 -3 Corangamite Gal. 20/8 575 35 52 9 44 -6 Chisholm Gal. 20/8 575 46 45 7 48 -8 ALP marginals* NP 28/8 800 34 47 13 47 -4 McEwen JWS 28/8 540 35 47 6 45 -14 Bendigo JWS 28/8 588 40 40 9 51 -9 Average swing -6.9 * La Trobe/Deakin/Corangamite QUEENSLAND N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Griffith RT 05/8 702 48 43 8 46 -12 Forde RT 08/8 725 40 48 4 46 -2 Forde Lon. 15/8 1160 34 56 4 40 -8 Forde JWS 15/8 568 33 54 4 40 -8 Brisbane JWS 15/8 607 36 50 9 46 -3 LNP marginals* NP 20/8 1382 32 54 5 40 -8 Forde NP 20/8 502 38 48 5 46 -2 Griffith Lon. 21/8 958 38 47 11 48 -10 Griffith NP 22/8 500 37 48 12 48 -10 Lilley JWS 28/8 757 40 48 5 46 -7 Griffith JWS 28/8 551 48 40 7 57 -1 Blair Gal. 29/8 604 39 40 8 50 -4 Dawson Gal. 29/8 550 34 48 4 43 -5 Griffith Gal. 29/8 655 41 37 12 54 -4 Herbert Gal. 29/8 589 36 47 6 45 -3 ALP marginals** NP 30/8 800 38 42 8 49 -4 Average swing -5.9 * Brisbane/Forde/Longman/Herbert/Dawson/Bonner/Flynn/Fisher ** Moreton/Petrie/Lilley/Capricornia/Blair/Rankin/Oxley WESTERN AUSTRALIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Brand Gal. 29/8 660 42 42 10 52 -1 Hasluck Gal. 29/8 553 34 46 10 45 -4 Perth Gal. 29/8 550 47 35 13 58 +2 Average swing -1.2 SOUTH AUSTRALIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Hindmarsh Gal. 22/8 586 41 44 10 50 -6 Wakefield Gal. 26/8 575 44 35 7 55 -6 Adelaide Gal. 29/8 571 40 39 12 54 -4 Average swing -5.0 TASMANIA N ALP L-NP GRN 2PP SWING Bass RT 22/8 541 30 52 8 42 -15 Braddon RT 22/8 588 36 51 4 43 -14 Denison RT 22/8 563 19 24 11 Franklin RT 22/8 544 30 39 16 51 -10 Lyons RT 22/8 549 30 47 11 44 -18 Bass RT 03/9 659 28 54 10 41 -16 Average swing -14.7 AVERAGE SWING BY POLLSTER N SWING Galaxy 22 -4.3 Newspoll 10 -4.7 JWS Research 13 -6.8 ReachTEL 16 -8.6 Lonergan 3 -11.3
The betting markets have been moving all day, in particular firming everywhere for coalition and both Bowen & Rudd are now only very narrow favourites in their seats (sportsbet). I’m thinking that my long-standing prediction 46-45/54-55 is perhaps too conservative and also 94/55 seats … maybe just maybe Rudd can outdo Gillard and get to 50 or less and a 2PP of 43-44. Wouldn’t that be wonderful eh?
[Wouldn’t that be wonderful eh?]
no
ruawake@841
Has he got cameras in the ballot boxes? Seriously, you can’t tell anything at all from the “mood” at polling places – I’ve been on HTVs and scrutineering many times (not this time because recovering from surgery) and I’ve NEVER been able to match up the “mood” with the result for the booth.
I just want the betting markets to be wrong …
kezza2 – would be funny if I did HTV for one side, and spouse did it for the other side! One of the things I thought about some years ago when enquiring about pre-selection!
J etc
[I just want the betting markets to be wrong …]
So do I .. please God let Bowen lose his seat as well.
Just back from HTV duty in Westmead (Parramatta). Very hot day in Sydney’s west. Labor still very popular at that booth. 6-7 of ALP volunteers, with 10-11 Libs. Even a oneNation person (for a few fruitless hours). None of the Libs volunteers had any idea of their policies, and had nothing to offer voters on questioning. I also had many people from India who required help with the actual requirements of casting a formal ballot, the Lib volunteers were not even sure about that! I don’t know who they were, but they were numerous but inexperienced. Labor will win that booth again with no problem.
[Labor HTV cards in Tassie think their voters are sheep and make the card as donkey-vote-like as they like, including preffing the Liberals 2 in Lyons so their voters can donkey.]
Kevin, this fetish about preference allocation among the cognoscenti really is silly. Do you really think Labor is going to come third in Lyons? No. So, what is important for the party that disproportionately represents low-income, low-education, non-English-speaking people? Making sure their vote is formal. If the easiest way to cast a formal vote for Labor in Lyons is to put the Lib 2nd, that’s what the Labor HTV should advocate.
Mick77
The best thing that can happy to the Liberal Party is too lose Warringah
[ I don’t know who they were, but they were numerous but inexperienced.]
The Libs pay people to do HTV work: most of them are apolitical nongs who don’t even know where they are.
There has been a world wide record set for the use of the word sausage on twitter.
Psephos
[The Libs pay people to do HTV work: most of them are apolitical nongs who don’t even know where they are.]
Match Lib voters extremely well, then.
The LNP were paying people to wave corflutes at passing cars as if they were selling pizza.
Mbeemer
[The best thing that can happy to the Liberal Party is too lose Warringah]
Obvious nonsense but why would the Libs want to lose their leader and new PM. He’s the most popular choice for leader within the party and within the country. I think you’re mixing the libs up with that other circus: Labor/Rudd/Brown/Greens/Rudd/Shorten/Swan. It doesn’t work like that elsewhere.
@Mick77/864
Abbott is not popular.
Mick77,
Perhpas Mbeemer’s comment was that it would be better for the Liberals to have a leader that was competent, rather than allegedly popular.
[Obvious nonsense but why would the Libs want to lose their leader and new PM. He’s the most popular choice for leader within the party and within the country.]
Like freo, I think Abbott is extremely well coached.
“@kailamurnain: ALP volunteers in Sydney reporting Libs are bringing paid staff from North Shore. Just did it in Mascot. Coaches dropping them off. #auspol”
fess
yes, it was great fun. Wouldn’t miss it for quids.
I’ll be interested to see if my calculations were correct for the booth I was on.
Sounds like you’re in a very quiet rural area. One election I sat under a shady tree in a back o’ burke booth with a Lib HTV’er, and I reckon we saw 50 people for the whole day.
But we got to know each other reasonably well – and didn’t come to fisticuffs!
Rocket Rocket
[would be funny if I did HTV for one side, and spouse did it for the other side! One of the things I thought about some years ago when enquiring about pre-selection!]
I don’t know if I could ever sustain a relationship with a person of different political persuasion. Hats off to you.
If morgan keeps trending to the LNP then i am skeptical of its intentions!!
Wow Sky news over egging
“@attardmon: Sky news: no-one will be surprised in labor loses all seats in Qld. NSW a killing field too.”
Do the wankers on Sky realise what the “killing fields” really were? They really are crass.
@guytaur/871
Sky has vested interests.
“@latikambourke: Hearing busloads of Greens went from Melbourne to Indi to campaign for the Independent there who’s challenging Sophie Mirabella.”
Fat chance Mick!
The LNP HTVer we had today was a genuine member, but really very clueless as to her own party’s positions eg “You get $75000 if youre a mum!”
Me and the ALP HTVer had to explain the policy to her.
What does “over egging” mean? Ive heard of tying people to stocks and egging them- but what is over egging??
This sounds like a close content rather than a wipeout.
That would be why, every time it’s been asked in the last couple of years, Turnbull is miles ahead of Abbott in popularity.
Facts. Who needs them?
Mick77
Yes Tone is popular amongst the Right faction of the Liberal Party but not many others.
I firmly think the Liberals would have been placed if they had Turnbull as leader.
If Tone is so good why in seats like Kooyong and Wentworth are there virtually no photos of Tone.
Only time will tell if Tone will be successful or not.
contest I mean.
Mick77
Yes Tone is popular amongst the Right faction of the Liberal Party but not many others.
I firmly think the Liberals would have been better placed if they had Turnbull as leader.
If Tone is so good why in seats like Kooyong and Wentworth are there virtually no photos of Tone.
Only time will tell if Tone will be successful or not.
http://www.dailylife.com.au/news-and-views/dl-opinion/gillard-goes-out-with-dignity-and-class-20130907-2tbqr.html
[Her exit has been extraordinarily dignified. And her silence deserves respect.
During this election campaign, Gillard has not staged events that would capitalise on her celebrity – crowds would flock to her if she appeared in public now for, as Kevin Rudd discovered, Australians love an underdog. A dumped underdog is even better.
She has not sat at party launches with wry, meaningful expressions on her much-photographed face, strutted about on television, uttered passive aggressive statements about the Labor Party choosing “the best man for the job”, or commented on sinking polls.
In fact, Gillard has not commented on anything at all.]
@_AdamTodd: 4pm Morgan-Ten News exit poll: 52-48 to Coalition http://t.co/QJmDjtgFlQ #ausvotes http://t.co/ibWnVqc4gZ
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 30s
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (4PM update) 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 L/NP 52 #ausvotes
viz:
David Latham @david_latham 21m
Booth workers in Barton telling our volunteers they are international students being paid by the Liberals to hand out. #auspol #ausvotes
Alternative listening suggestions:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWX2c1yNfaM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ee_uujKuJMI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQnGqdFO9EY
Yeah, I’m kinda edgy today.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 34s
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (4PM update) Primary Votes: ALP 33.5 L/NP 42.5 GRN 11.5 PUP 5 #ausvotes
It is in the medias interest to try and keep this sounding close so that people will keep watching their coverage of the election.
Thanks Lev
Tone can be summed up by baddies and baddies.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 30s
#Morgan Poll – Exit Poll (4PM update) 2 Party Preferred: ALP 48 L/NP 52 #ausvotes]
Still 48-52.
Not a landslide.
Pollster and media must be gettign very nervous indeed. About to look like massive chumps?
[What does “over egging” mean? Ive heard of tying people to stocks and egging them- but what is over egging??]
I think it means to put too many eggs in your pudding, hence to over-do or over-state something.
EDi
Yeah that is why Sky has already called it.
[Rocket Rocket
Posted Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 3:32 pm | Permalink
kezza2 – Thanks. And your “diary” has given me my third laugh at work. I always thank all the people handing out the HTVs – and think of their counterparts in elections in places like Afghanistan.]
Like you Rocket I try to be polite to all the people at the booths. I did have a small dig at the Libs though, asking them if they had handed out HTV cards for Scott Driscoll in the state election. One guy sheepishly admitted he had and withdrew his offered HTV card. Probably only cheer I’ll get today.
@Edi_Mahin/888
The media are suggesting a wipe out for labor, as per earlier post by guytaur.
Greens up to 11.5. They are doing a bit better than I thought they were going to do if this exit poll is any indication.
wal
It’s from “over-egging the pudding”. The more eggy goodness in a pudding, the better it was considered when eggs were expensive but you can add too much.
Sky using Newspoll for its exit pollster. Have they done one before?
Geelong are over-egging their faking for free kicks.
Wal Koola a meaning of over-egging
__________\
I comes froma cooking term./..” to over-egg the pudding” meaning to use too many eggs in the receipe and spoil the end product
I can apply to many things
\_______________________________
Ok. English is just weird