Three more polls have emerged over the past 24 hours, though some of them already seem like old news. ReachTEL in particular will shortly be superseded when the results of the third such poll in consecutive days are revealed on Seven Sunrise at 6am. All three polls, together with new state breakdowns, have been thrown into the BludgerTrack mix. In turn:
• A Galaxy phone poll of 1303 respondents has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 35% for Labor, 45% for the Coalition, 9% for the Greens and 5% for the Palmer United Party. Full results including attitudinal questions from GhostWhoVotes.
• ReachTEL has Labor’s primary vote at 32.7%, compared with 35.3% on the result from the day before, with the Coalition down from 44.2% to 43.6% and the Greens up from 9.7% to 10.0%. The Palmer United Party meanwhile charges onward from 4.4% to 6.1%. This poll too has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. UPDATE: No need to amend the headline, because today’s poll is apparently 53-47 as well.
• Essential Research has an online poll of 1035 respondents with Labor on 35% of the primary vote (steady on Monday’s result), the Coalition on 43% (down one) and the Greens on 10% (steady). I’m also told the poll has the Palmer United Party on 4%, as did Monday’s result. On two-party preferred the Coalition lead is at 52-48, down from 53-47 on Monday.
UPDATE: Morgan has a poll of 3939 respondents conducted last night and the night before by SMS, phone (live interview I assume) and online which has Labor on 31.5%, the Coalition on 45%, the Greens on 9.5% and the Palmer United Party on 6.5%. The published two-party preferred figure is 53.5-46.5 to the Coalition, which I presume to be respondent-allocated. State breakdowns are promised this afternoon, and there will be a “final poll” both conducted and released this evening.
UPDATE 2: The Guardian has a Lonergan Research automated phone poll of 862 respondents showing the Coalition lead at a narrow 50.8-49.2, with primary votes of 34% for Labor, 42% for the Coalition, 14% for the Greens and a relatively modest 10% for “others”. It also features, for what it’s worth (not much in my experience), Senate voting intention: 29% Labor, 40% Coalition, 16% Greens and 8% “others”. This seems consistent with the general pattern of Senate polling to inflate the vote for the Greens (and, back in the day, the Democrats).
UPDATE 3: Channel Nine reports tomorrow’s Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 54-46.
I’m tipping 50-50 TPP. I don’t think the ALP will get enough seats. Bummer. But I do have $20 at $17 for an ALP win. You never know…
G20 to sign up for tax loopholes fix:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23966218
Tipping 52.2 – 47.8 TPP
Coalition 88 seats
My tip 50/50.
Don’t think Labor can win/save enough marginals.
Think Abbott PM by a few seats but that also he won’t handle the pressure.
Nw
[Think Abbott PM by a few seats but that also he won’t handle the pressure.]
6 years and he’ll be very forgettable.
CTar1 5
Give you 6-8 months and he’ll be gone.
53/47 is my tip, Coalition with 90 seats.
51/49 in a tight finish…internet filter debacle and sweaty costing will kick in today…if reported of course (which is a pretty fucking big assumption by me).
If Nielsen’s right about the preference flows, then the BludgerTrack primary figures *already* point to a 50-50 result. My figuring of them (assuming PUP 5.5 and KAP 1.0 out of that OTH figure), off of Nielsen’s preference flows, is as follows:
==============================
ALP 34.60
LNP 43.30
GRN 09.70 (ALP: 08.34)
PUP 05.50 (ALP: 03.41)
KAP 01.00 (ALP: 00.55)
OTH 06.00 (ALP: 03.00)
ALP 2PP 49.90 (50)
LNP 2PP 50.10 (50)
That said, I think the true 2PP off of BludgerTrack’s figures is more likely to be in the vicinity of 51-49 to the Coalition.
I’ll throw my hat in the ring for tipping a 50-50 result on Saturday.
Thought the Internet Gaffe would be lead story on the OO. Clearly, it did not happen. And those sweaty costings….ooooohhh yuk it needs Pamolive Gold and/or Solvo. Wash your hands Tony.
Re: Johnny Button @ 11
Apparently, Joe Hockey’s come down with the flu (per his Twitter account). I wouldn’t go too hard on the sweatiness thing, he seems to have been sweating all day.
98 Lib seats tomorrow.
The pain is almost over team Labor and opposition is not bad as Labor do it really well.
the swing is happening in the marginal sorry to burst your hopeful labor comeback bubbles. I doubt that 7% swing in NSW has gone away in 3 days.
”Australia is crying out for a stable government that can be trusted to deliver what it promises. The Herald believes only the Coalition can achieve that within the limited mandate Tony Abbott will carry into office should he prevail on Saturday.”
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/australians-deserve-a-government-they-can-trust-20130905-2t7wm.html#ixzz2e3I83UDa
Of course newsltd is wanting to election to be talked up as close
galaxy poll Conducted for The Daily Telegraph , says it all
newsltd still fudging the polls
wont help them tomorrow
labor will be retain
Of course newsltd is not wanting to election to be talked up as close , newsltd can not afford to have people waking up
galaxy poll Conducted for The Daily Telegraph , says it all
newsltd still fudging the polls
wont help them tomorrow
labor will be retain
tep
Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 5:27 am | PERMALINK
53/47 is my tip, Coalition with 90 seats.
———
wont happen
The coalition will not get over 75 seats with a primary of 43%
(http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/labors-policies-best-reflect-our-values-20130905-2t828.html)
the age alone comes out for labor. they’re not ALL rotten
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
The SMH editorial suggests we “give Abbott a go” and then spends the rest of the article ridiculing him.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/australians-deserve-a-government-they-can-trust-20130905-2t7wm.html
Hartcher is similar but nowhere near as pointed.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/ill-keep-my-word-abbott-20130905-2t89r.html
Tim Colebatch easliy exposes the problems and motives of the Opposition’s costings. He disparages labor’s $70b black hole mantra but I think they miss the point that this is the size of cuts that would be necessary to bet the budget back into the black. The Opposition has conveniently given up on that.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/coalition-figures-clear-as-mud-20130905-2t85s.html
Greg Jericho in the Guardian really lets fly at Hockey’s laughable performance yesterday.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2013/sep/05/coalition-costings-political-fluff
From a South Australian, thanks very much!
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/coalition-spending-cuts-rip-money-from-the-river-murray/story-fni6uo1m-1226712343447
Watching Abbott, with attached daughter at his side, use his reptilian facial movements to brush over the internet filter gaffe was sickening. And Turnbull sounds so, so supercilious.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/coalition-announces-internet-filter–and-immediately-backs-down-20130905-2t7nb.html
Sounds like a nice family.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/three-relatives-of-skaf-gang-rapist-charged-with-assault-20130905-2t7xs.html
Peter Martin’s fact checking of Abbott’s carbon tax claim as ‘mostly false”.
What a surprise!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/fact-checker/is-tony-abbotts-350-carbon-claim-hot-air-20130905-2t6mn.html
You’re not the only one Kev!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/fearful-kevin-rudd-warns-coalition-win-would-damage-economy-20130905-2t74z.html
Has anyone actually praised the Opposition’s policies? Here aged care gets a serve.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/seniors-group-attacks-coalition-plan-to-relax-aged-care-regulation-20130905-2t863.html
Section 2 . . .
MUST SEE. Alan Moir is less than happy with Abbott’s CC policies
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
Andrew Dyson doesn’t like Clive Palmer’s chances.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
David Rowe sums up the costings release by Hockey and Robb.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
Ron Tandberg with a different slant on how Abbott will reverse the flow of boats.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
There is too many coalition supporters still unhinging for any one to be confident of an coalition win
@20…yeah they are only rotten when they support the other side I don’t like…
All of you torturing Bludger Track and the polling data to come up with better results for Labor than 52-48 should consider what a woeful campaign Labor has had.
Sure, Keating came back in 1993, but he campaigned very strongly and Hewson was poor. The Liberal campaign this time has been mediocre: no major stuff-ups in the eyes of the uninterested swinging voters (gaffes like “sex appeal” and yesterday’s net nanny nonsense are mainly only picked up on the radars of the political cognoscenti).
Yes, there’s a continuing unease about Abbott and his team, and I expect that this has gotten a bit worse during the campaign. But this trend seems to be matched stride-for-stride by a diminishing confidence in Rudd and the increasingly chaotic state of Labor under the abiding influence of his personal journey.
Meanwhile, the Coalition draws strength from a deep-seated trust among much of the public in their well-established “brand”: a sound economy, tight fiscal policy, lower taxes, stop the boats, etc. This used to be Labor’s brand until Beazley trashed it in the 1990s and Howard got very lucky with the state of the economy in the 2000s.
There is a fair chance that, over the next few years, the Coalition will do some damage to that brand: they don’t seem ready for government, and Abbott and Hockey as an economic management team do not give me the sort of confidence that Howard and Costello did. But these possible future problems won’t help Rudd now.
Regardless of the polls, it feels more like 54-46 to me than 50-50. Anyway, we’ll soon see.
My tip is almost the same as glory’s.
52-48, Coalition with 86 seats.
Has the new Reachtel figures been released yet?
Only 35 hours to the end. Nearer to thy God go thee.
The Age backs Labor.
And from the Land of the Free –
Some cartoons on the Repugs and GLBT rights.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/09/05/cartoons-day-gop-glbt-rights/
The Yanks’ infrastructure time bomb.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/09/04/engineers-thousands-us-bridges-dangerously-close-collapsing-matter-time/
Rachael Maddow lines up thge Iraq war architects and apologists.
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/maddow-iraq-war-architects-you-can-go-now
What a shocking place!
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/florida-man-cites-bush-doctrine-after-pre-em
Obama looks like getting the Cameron treatment in Congress.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/05/syria-vote_n_3873801.html
Coalition 81 ALP 65 indies/grn 4 and the postscript will be the failings of NSW ALP
labor 80 seats
coalition 67
abbott instead of picking up ground with the majority of media on his side , is still going ot miss out on governing
the coalition vote has gone backwards
So, dear old Herald decides that we should vote for Tony because he is more “stable”. No mention at all really, about policies or rupert. Clearly, the Herald doesn’t want to be on the wrong side of the next Govt, or Roger Corbett.
I think that, after 30 years of religiously buying the Herald every morning, it’s time to give it a rest. Thanks boys, but I’ll read the guardian from now on.
I think va Onselen was right – the long “pseudo”campaign from February has not helped Labor. Australians are used to very short (by international standards) campaigns.
I think Labor will win 60 seats, Katter and Wilkie their 2, and I am hoping very much (BK!!!) that Indi changes hands. I seem to remember in the last election was it Boerwar who said that a good well-organized independent could win Indi. Here’s hoping!
[Meguire Bob
Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 6:59 am | PERMALINK
labor 80 seats
coalition 67
abbott instead of picking up ground with the majority of media on his side , is still going ot miss out on governing
the coalition vote has gone backwards]
saved for use tomorrow at 6.45 pm lol
rummel
Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 7:00 am | PERMALINK
saved for use tomorrow at 6.45 pm lol
———————————————
I wouldnt be the only one loling if the election turns out to be another hung parliament
[quote]I think va Onselen was right – the long “pseudo”campaign from February has not helped Labor. Australians are used to very short (by international standards) campaigns.[/quote]
It’s definitely been one of the problems. People are tired of the constant political news and have tuned off, Rudd’s finding it difficult to get people to pay attention.
Rocket
It would be a small but welcome consolation!
Rocket Rocket
Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 7:00 am | PERMALINK
I think va Onselen was right
——-
he is a newsltd hack , he was to scared to go against his bosses wishes of telling the public the facts
he had to foolow the agenda of supporting abbott and his cronies
River
Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 7:04 am | PERMALINK
It’s definitely been one of the problems
———–
newsltd and the pro coalition media was the problem
there is no defence for them , they were the ones who went agaisnt thier own code of ethics
in not tellinf the public the facts
ESJ – 26. Sounds like you will be very happy.
The facts are labor would had won in a landslide , if the media were even 60/40 to the coalition
Gary
Edward StJohn and other coalition supporters dont even beleive the coalition will win
They are only trying to give labor supporters grief , to cover up thier disappointment that abbott like in 2010 has lost the coalition the chance to govern.
[Meguire Bob
Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 7:04 am | PERMALINK
rummel
Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 7:00 am | PERMALINK
saved for use tomorrow at 6.45 pm lol
———————————————
I wouldnt be the only one loling if the election turns out to be another hung parliament]
Another hung parliament would be a nightmare. if labor win, i hope they have a clear majority, though you still have to question the legitimacy of any labor government.
[quote]newsltd and the pro coalition media was the problem[/quote]
That’s definitely been one of the problems lol.
That being said, Rudd had no problem using Murdoch when he destabilised Gillard. Seems a bit hypocritical of him to complain now.
KEVIN 17 37
I stopped suscribing to smh after 25 years BTW a straw poll I put a tweet on and 40 people replied they has also stopped plus friends and rellies of mine brought that to over 65 stopped So join us Kevin
[That being said, Rudd had no problem using Murdoch when he destabilised Gillard. Seems a bit hypocritical of him to complain now.]
Ahmen.
An Abbott Government will be mean and sweaty.
River
Posted Friday, September 6, 2013 at 7:12 am | PERMALINK
That being said, Rudd had no problem using Murdoch when he destabilised Gillard. Seems a bit hypocritical of him to complain now.
————————————————–
Yes , there is no defence for rudd either