Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition (plus marginals polling)

Galaxy has an on-trend national poll result plus more of its electorate-level automated polls, including the first such polling for the campaign from Western Australia.

GhostWhoVotes relates that Galaxy has a national poll showing the Coalition leading 53-47, from primary votes of 35% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. We also have these latest additions to Galaxy’s series of 550-sample electorate-level automated phone polls:

• Three Perth seats have been targeted for the first electorate-level polls to emerge from Western Australia during the campaign. One of these, for the electorate of Perth, holds another distinction in being the first published opinion poll of any kind during the campaign to show a clear swing to Labor. It has Labor candidate Alannah MacTiernan leading Liberal candidate Darryl Moore by 58-42, compared with Stephen Smith’s 2010 margin of 5.9%. MacTiernan outperformed the state average by about 5% as the unsuccessful candidate for Canning in 2010.

• Less happily for Labor, the second poll shows Liberal member Ken Wyatt with a clear 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Adrian Evans in the state’s most marginal seat of Hasluck, which Wyatt holds for the Liberals on a margin of 0.6%.

• GhostWhoVotes also relates that a Brand poll has both parties on 42% of the primary vote, with no two-party preferred result provided. However, it would presumably give Labor member Gary Gray the lead over his Liberal challenger Donna Gordin. Gray polled 40.8% of the primary vote in 2010 to Gordin’s 39.4% (UPDATE: The two-party preferred turns out to be 52-48 to Labor).

• The other two polls are from Queensland, one being for the Townsville seat of Herbert, where Liberal National Party member Ewen Jones is given a 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Cathy O’Toole, compared with a 2010 margin of 2.2%.

• The second Queensland poll is from Herbert’s southern neighbour Dawson, and it shows LNP member George Christensen well clear of Labor candidate Bronwyn Taha with a lead of 57-43, compared with 2.4% in 2010.

UPDATE: Galaxy, which I have little doubt is doing the most credible work in the electorate-level automated phone poll game, now has polls for two further Queensland seats: one showing Kevin Rudd leading Bill Glasson 54-46 in Griffith, the other showing and Labor’s Shayne Neumann tied 50-50 with the Liberal National Party’s Teresa Harding.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition (plus marginals polling)”

Comments Page 4 of 37
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  1. [150
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, September 1, 2013 at 12:42 am | PERMALINK
    @rummel/149

    The only way it can sort it own shit out is when they back in power, including ICAC corruption.

    You can’t change laws in Opposition.

    You can only do party-reform in Opposition which are not laws.]

    You don’t need to be able to creat law to fix the party structure and it looks like the voters are going to give Labor a few years on the side lines to do just that.

  4. [zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, September 1, 2013 at 12:46 am | PERMALINK
    @rummel/151

    Party-Reform does shit all.

    This crap isn’t new in either major party.]

    Well, how in gods name is labor going to prevent the next round of leadershit? You can’t govern for all when you can’t govern yourself.

  6. [But hey … at least after the election they can sit around in their little opposition party gatherings and console themselves that it would all have been much, much worse under Gillard.]

    No doubt they will. You make that sound like a bad thing, which is rather odd.

    Welcome to politics.

    This was almost certainly Shorto’s view when he pulled the plug.

    Imsorry: Does anyone think the party was banking on a win when they moved on PMJG?

    Especially Shorto?

  7. rummel

    [how in gods name is labor going to prevent the next round of leadershit]

    Sooner or later you have to have a new one.

    And the next is already there.

    The problem is when the last one doesn’t bow out with some grace. ’07 a f’cker.

  8. Kevin Bonham, you might know the answer.

    Is there any legislation in Australia which regulates Political Parties?

    There is the Corporations Act for Companies, various State Incorporated Associations Acts for Clubs and Associations etc. Is there any equivalent for Political Parties?

    I am familiar with Incorporated Associations in Victoria and the legislation does impose fairly stringent requirements for governance. It is obvious, considering what has happened in NSW, that Political Parties need to have proper governance.

  9. Australia needs a leader as PM. However, both parties seem incapable of providing that leadership because of internal process.

    Abbott will win, fair enough. Though Abbott has a huge mountain to climb before he can claim a leader title. This may prove a stepping stone to a quick return to a Labor Government, but please, give us a leader worth following and more importantly, a leader to be proud of……………

  12. bemused@158

    Kevin Bonham, you might know the answer.

    Is there any legislation in Australia which regulates Political Parties?

    There is the Corporations Act for Companies, various State Incorporated Associations Acts for Clubs and Associations etc. Is there any equivalent for Political Parties?

    I am familiar with Incorporated Associations in Victoria and the legislation does impose fairly stringent requirements for governance. It is obvious, considering what has happened in NSW, that Political Parties need to have proper governance.

    Electoral Act imposes some restrictions; not that many though. Apart from that if parties lack governance, voters boot them.

  14. @Lefty e/163

    At least Chaos ensues for Abbott in senate, he might want to do something really stupid to loose the election and make Rudd win the election?

  15. The only particular governance requirements in relation to political parties involve public funding and donation disclosure. Until these were introduced in 1983, the existence of political parties wasn’t acknowledged in statute. Now that it has been, there have been a few court cases which have broadened the horizon of the justiciability of preselection disputes, on the basis that public funding means the law can no longer regard parties as purely private associations.

  16. All I can say is: if our upper house electoral system isnt already the laughing stock of the democratic world, it should be.

    Ive got an idea – who dont we let HACKS determine where votes go? What could possibly go wrong?

    Surely the architects of our excellent preferential system had VOTER preferences in mind.

  17. Why don’t pollsters release primary and tpp votes for all parties and others?

    They ask the question yet the answers don’t get published. Media headlines?

  18. Labor MUST fight the next election as a genuine non-union grassroots party with 50000 – 100000 members. Then they will be a formibible fighting force able to beat anything murdoch throws at them

  20. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Evidence of the igorance that is being utilised by right wing political parties. The dumber the better!
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/decay-in-nonfluoride-areas-rivals-third-world-20130831-2sxg4.html
    Yes, the creepily religious Abbott and Morriscum are winners.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/abbott-boat-plan-blasted-20130831-2sxp7.html
    Peter FitzSimons’ weekly column.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/playing-dirty-with-clean-energy-20130831-2sxbd.html

  21. And from the Land of the Free –

    Some more cartoons on the Repugs’ issues with health care.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/31/cartoons-of-the-day-noboehnercare/
    And the Repugs work out their reaction to Obama’s response to the Syrian crisis.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/30/bonus-cartoon-of-the-day-gop-opines-on-syria/
    American justice administered.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/30/death-by-natural-causes/
    What bloody idiots!
    http://crooksandliars.com/david-neiwert/gop-led-missouri-gun-nullification-l
    Vote for the World’s Ugliest Animal.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017142250

  25. Take away the margin of error which newsltd alwayus gives to newsltd/abbott coalition

    the real state of play is coaliiton primary 43%

    labor 38%

  29. Morning MB. Have to admit my confidence is flagging, I still think its close, but I can’t see a way past 70 seats at the moment. Still appreciate your pep talks tho.

  30. Morning MB. Have to admit my confidence is flagging, I still think its close, but I can’t see a way past 70 seats at the moment. Still appreciate your pep talks tho.

  31. It doesn’t seem to matter how bad a day abbot has and how good a day Rudd has, by the time it’s filtered through the media the message is reversed

  32. pithicus
    Posted Sunday, September 1, 2013 at 7:16 am | PERMALINK
    Meguire
    Abbott could have a fiber army. Consisting of thousands of dole bludgers with shovels.————————————-

    lol

  33. pithicus

    Abbott already has a fibber army consisting of LNP front bench bludgers and Newscorpse ,I use the term very loosely, journalists.

  34. Lardybutcute

    My pick is labor 80 seats, but a result similar to 2010 would be as good

    Dont let the pro coalition media polls get you down, its thier agenda to fudge the polls for thier puppet abbott, to try to convince people the election is over

    Newsltd and the pro coalition media knows if people are are still deciding who to vote for

    Abbott will scare them

  36. Yeah, agreed but its not just the polls, its the people I speak to who two weeks ago were undecided, but now spout back direct Murdoch lines back at me. Still, I’m just finishing night 3 of a 4 night stretch at work, so I will hopefully feel more optimistic again after some sleep

  37. [It is not in the best interested for the pro coalition media to claim this is going to be a close election]

    this confuses me too. Do they want underdog status or not?

  38. If Tones wins the election look who else will scuttle in behind him. Theocrats-r-Us.

    [Church lobby in ‘win’ over charities watchdog

    ….. the lobbying power of church conservatives, the Catholic Church in particular, and the office of Sydney Cardinal George Pell, more particularly still.

    And their focus has not been the Coalition alone. Labor insiders acknowledge the impact of Cardinal Pell’s office as it reduced the scope of its new national regulator, the Australian Charities and Not-for-Profits Commission.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/church-lobby-in-win-over-charities-watchdog-20130831-2sxqs.html#ixzz2daIHJALf

  39. pithicus
    Posted Sunday, September 1, 2013 at 7:28 am | PERMALINK

    this confuses me too. Do they want underdog status or not?

    —————————————————–

    The media knows people will bork at abbott and vote for labor if the election is close , why the media is talking up abbott

    Its in the media interest that abbott wins

  42. [If there is no Abbott government , they will need to do explanations on how they and the opinion polls got it wrong]

    the last polls just before sep 7 are the only ones they need to get right unfortunately.

  44. Notwithstanding the messianic “tone” (so to speak) of the front page of the Sunday Terror today , the editorial itself is wryly amusing, as it sounds like the author (presumably the legendary Col Pot himself) is trying very, very hard to overcome his own doubts and convince himself that Abbott is up to the job: the main tactic used being the rolling mantra of how bad Labor had been.

    And it features the comic gold line: “We are not, and have never been, cheerleaders for any one side of politics.”

    So, even from the epicentre of the dark realm, thr best that can really said about Abbott as PM is that Labor has been so bad we might as well give him a go. And, of course, the PPL: which the dark lord himself in his twitter account has cited as evidence of Tony being a “conviction politician” and in the editorial he lauded as having “reached out to working women” (and, one wants to add, women with babies and nuns….) “like no political leader in recent history”.

  45. meher baba

    [: “We are not, and have never been, cheerleaders for any one side of politics.”]
    That Col Pot would write such a line shows the utter disdain they have for their readers.

  46. Meguire Bob. On the Northern Tablelands by-election thread, once the results came in, you begged William to close the thread down to spare you the embarrassment. On 7 Sept, what are you going to do: beg William to close down thr whole site?

    Has it ever occurred to you that MoE cuts both ways: that the true state of affairs could be 56-44 or worse? I will be astonished if Labor can win more than 57 seats on election night, and I fear I’m overestimating.

    How old are you? I can remember 1977 and this election reminds me strongly of then: Fraser was a ludicrous PM (people seem to forget how incompetent and embarrassing he was) and people fully understood this, but all they could think about was the chaos of the Whitlam Government and they weren’t going to have a bar of it.

    That’s exactly how the public mood seems to me right now.

  47. So I read the labor launch will focus on jobs, small business and skills

    Stuff the polls, Rudd’s got this folks. Not.

    Seriously, more of the same? Say it isn’t so

  48. I think the contribution of Beazley in 96-01 is often underrated . He kept a defeated shattered party together.

    Who is a cabinet minister from the right in the lower house who will have the statute and authority to be Oppo Leader?

    From what I can see there isn’t somebody with that authority. If you look at Bill Shorten s history it’s one of a series of splits and factional conflicts. Failing that who’s an older stop gap ? They all seem to have retired or won’t be elected a la Beattie.

    Who is the messiah ?

  50. [
    Andrew
    Posted Sunday, September 1, 2013 at 8:06 am | Permalink

    So I read the labor launch will focus on jobs, small business and skills

    Stuff the polls, Rudd’s got this folks. Not.

    Seriously, more of the same? Say it isn’t so
    ]

    Labor seems very determined to keep it’s successes very quite, to defnd nothing.

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