Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition (plus marginals polling)

Galaxy has an on-trend national poll result plus more of its electorate-level automated polls, including the first such polling for the campaign from Western Australia.

GhostWhoVotes relates that Galaxy has a national poll showing the Coalition leading 53-47, from primary votes of 35% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. We also have these latest additions to Galaxy’s series of 550-sample electorate-level automated phone polls:

• Three Perth seats have been targeted for the first electorate-level polls to emerge from Western Australia during the campaign. One of these, for the electorate of Perth, holds another distinction in being the first published opinion poll of any kind during the campaign to show a clear swing to Labor. It has Labor candidate Alannah MacTiernan leading Liberal candidate Darryl Moore by 58-42, compared with Stephen Smith’s 2010 margin of 5.9%. MacTiernan outperformed the state average by about 5% as the unsuccessful candidate for Canning in 2010.

• Less happily for Labor, the second poll shows Liberal member Ken Wyatt with a clear 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Adrian Evans in the state’s most marginal seat of Hasluck, which Wyatt holds for the Liberals on a margin of 0.6%.

• GhostWhoVotes also relates that a Brand poll has both parties on 42% of the primary vote, with no two-party preferred result provided. However, it would presumably give Labor member Gary Gray the lead over his Liberal challenger Donna Gordin. Gray polled 40.8% of the primary vote in 2010 to Gordin’s 39.4% (UPDATE: The two-party preferred turns out to be 52-48 to Labor).

• The other two polls are from Queensland, one being for the Townsville seat of Herbert, where Liberal National Party member Ewen Jones is given a 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Cathy O’Toole, compared with a 2010 margin of 2.2%.

• The second Queensland poll is from Herbert’s southern neighbour Dawson, and it shows LNP member George Christensen well clear of Labor candidate Bronwyn Taha with a lead of 57-43, compared with 2.4% in 2010.

UPDATE: Galaxy, which I have little doubt is doing the most credible work in the electorate-level automated phone poll game, now has polls for two further Queensland seats: one showing Kevin Rudd leading Bill Glasson 54-46 in Griffith, the other showing and Labor’s Shayne Neumann tied 50-50 with the Liberal National Party’s Teresa Harding.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition (plus marginals polling)”

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  1. DN

    [Eh, it’s not as if the world will end. If it does end, those of us who managed to survive can just vote Abbott out in another 3 years.]

    Amusing …

  2. If Abbott doesn’t shape up, as he won’t, the libs are stuck with him. Nobody is going to sack a first term PM again this side of the end of time

  3. DN

    [Eh, it’s not as if the world will end. If it does end, those of us who managed to survive can just vote Abbott out in another 3 years.]

    Amusing …

  4. Is there any chance we can get Superman to stop the earth from rotating on its axis so we never get to the next 6 days?

    We should get Superman to stop Abbott rotating on his axis so we know what he stands for.

  5. deblonay – Depends how you define heavy? Howard lost 53-47, Keating lost 54-46, Fraser lost 53-47, Whitlam lost 56-44, McMahon lost 53-47, Curtin lost 51-49. So 53-47 seems about average for defeated governments, but Whitlam did significantly worse, Curtin a bit better. The ALP was back in 8 years when Whitlam lost, in 23 years when Curtin lost, so margin of defeat does not have a huge bearing on when the party will return to government (indeed following Keating’s and Howard’s defeats their parties either won the 2PP in the next election or forced a hung parliament)

  6. I don’t know any male at least who has had a fantastic experience of Viagra.

    The persons who have recounted their experience of it to me speak of a hugely uncomfortable and unrelieved swelling, which may take more than 24 hours to recede.

    Even sex makes no difference, apparently. I am not sure about ejaculation. I suspect it doesn’t happen.

    The Joy of Anticipation. Bit like LNP.

  7. Socrates.. your path is one that I predicted for many after 2010, but most didn’t go your way.

    My rant about the finances reflects my journey to apostasy with Keynesian economics. Comparing ourselves with basket-case/potential basket-case economies in the OECD is hardly a ringing endorsement.

    Nevertheless, none here would concede even that the spending to stimulate the economy was marginally too high. Some economists consider that only about 10-15% of the stimulus was necessary for the reversal in trend and that much of the rest has simply been wasted. However.. we can never know because we can’t have parallel realities (without potentially illegal drugs or serious advances in modern physics).

    Nevertheless, this blog, generally, has shown me the very worst of people, whilst ‘tolerated outsiders’, kept like pets (Mod Lib,Glen and, more recently, Sean) show the softening of stated beliefs required to receive even the token affection of those with greatest power. A great insight into power imbalance and cultural demarcation. Eventually, they do more and more to get less and less affection.

    However, I am sickened by the behaviour of many here. Realising that people here are attached to real identities and walk around in the real world.. some really do need to spend more time with their families and break their addiction to this world..

    The behaviour is scarily close to that of heroin addicts I have worked with and studied in the past. Particularly the cognitive dissonance.

    I have almost finished now, so i don’t imagine that I’ll be around much after this election.. the doomsday predicted will very much come and this cult will irrevocably change.

  8. I’m going to avoid passing comment on that primary vote number …

    And I think it’s a bit rich to chide people for their ‘shortcomings’ when you’ve spent 3 years analysing online personalities …

  9. “Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, September 1, 2013 at 10:26 pm |
    Even worse he has the quote wRONg. He says it’s “Full body contact never hurt anyone.”, when the quote was “a bit of body contact never hurt anyone” which is quite different.”

    Funny. The very point of netball is that it is a foul to even accidentally impede another player with any form of body contact … What other point is body contact if not to impede? Perhaps Abbott has his mind on frottage.

  10. [1787
    Simon Baker

    Carey Moore What you are missing is the emergence of an increasingly isolationist right across the West. Cameron lost his parliamentary vote because of opposition from Tory backbenchers influenced by the rise of UKIP, in the US Rand Paul is now a leading contendor for the 2016 Republican nomination and Speaker Boehner and Republicans in the House are sceptical about action to say the least. In France, Marine Le Pen is rising in the polls. Abbott’s scepticism about intervention in Syria reflects that]

    There is more to this than rightist politics….

    [As Harold MacMillan is reported to have said in 1963 when handing over to Alec Douglas-Home: “You’ll be all right, old boy, as long as you don’t invade Afghanistan.”]

    In 2001, GW Bush and the neo-cons asserted a unilateral right to action on the part of the US, deliberately challenging the legalistic, multilateral code that had applied before 9/11, and by which the US accepted the idea of limits on its military discretion. This followed the First Gulf War, fought by Bush Senior, which resulted in a permanently inconclusive and unsatisfactory background deployment by the US and UK in support of sanctions against Iraq.

    Altogether, the US and its allies have been fighting in and around the Mid-East since 1990 – 23 years – and have remarkably little to show for it. The Middle East is no more stable, peaceful or well-disposed to the West now than it was in 1990. In lots of ways, it is much worse than, say, during the Cold War era, when the West was largely constrained by Soviet competition.

    The US has been involved in Afghanistan on and off since the late 1970’s, and arguably has brought itself nothing but tragedy as a result. Meantime, it first lost and then completely failed to regain its strategic prominence in Iran, where its enemies remain in clear control.

    The US and the West would be very wise to re-think their vital interests and chosen strategic methods, and to resolve not to get caught in more ethnic, tribal, territorial, religious or otherwise internecine wars – wars which they self-evidently cannot “win” and from which they must eventually withdraw.

    The West has an enduring commitment to Israel and an equally durable interest in order, peace and stability in the Middle East and around the Mediterranean littoral. It should be doing as much as is necessary to protect these, and really should not venture further without absolutely compelling reasons.

    This is the lesson of the last 30-odd years of failed policy, bungled diplomacy, great power hubris, military misadventure and recurring disruption.

    Anyone who doubts this should think back to 1853 when, for domestic political reasons, France and Britain went to war against Russia, ostensibly to “protect” Ottoman interests in the Black Sea. Before the War concluded in 1856, it had spread at various stages to include territories and theatres on the Danube, the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, The Caucasus, The Baltic, The White Sea, The Pacific, Sardinia and Greece. This was the first really pointless military adventurism of the modern era, and showed how war will so easily run off in all directions, more or less under its own impetus. Syria is another Ottoman territory and one the West should stay right away from.

  11. Briefly…on Mid East
    I enjoyed your well informed comments

    AS if on cue the American Conservative editor Buchanan calls upon House Speaker Boehner to use his power to restrain Obama from an attack on Syria

    He also makes the claim that “those interests ” who want a wider conflict arew certain to push for war
    ” Those interests” include the Israeli-zionist Lobby who always support war in the region against any Arab state…it’s their only policy now

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