Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition (plus marginals polling)

Galaxy has an on-trend national poll result plus more of its electorate-level automated polls, including the first such polling for the campaign from Western Australia.

GhostWhoVotes relates that Galaxy has a national poll showing the Coalition leading 53-47, from primary votes of 35% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. We also have these latest additions to Galaxy’s series of 550-sample electorate-level automated phone polls:

• Three Perth seats have been targeted for the first electorate-level polls to emerge from Western Australia during the campaign. One of these, for the electorate of Perth, holds another distinction in being the first published opinion poll of any kind during the campaign to show a clear swing to Labor. It has Labor candidate Alannah MacTiernan leading Liberal candidate Darryl Moore by 58-42, compared with Stephen Smith’s 2010 margin of 5.9%. MacTiernan outperformed the state average by about 5% as the unsuccessful candidate for Canning in 2010.

• Less happily for Labor, the second poll shows Liberal member Ken Wyatt with a clear 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Adrian Evans in the state’s most marginal seat of Hasluck, which Wyatt holds for the Liberals on a margin of 0.6%.

• GhostWhoVotes also relates that a Brand poll has both parties on 42% of the primary vote, with no two-party preferred result provided. However, it would presumably give Labor member Gary Gray the lead over his Liberal challenger Donna Gordin. Gray polled 40.8% of the primary vote in 2010 to Gordin’s 39.4% (UPDATE: The two-party preferred turns out to be 52-48 to Labor).

• The other two polls are from Queensland, one being for the Townsville seat of Herbert, where Liberal National Party member Ewen Jones is given a 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Cathy O’Toole, compared with a 2010 margin of 2.2%.

• The second Queensland poll is from Herbert’s southern neighbour Dawson, and it shows LNP member George Christensen well clear of Labor candidate Bronwyn Taha with a lead of 57-43, compared with 2.4% in 2010.

UPDATE: Galaxy, which I have little doubt is doing the most credible work in the electorate-level automated phone poll game, now has polls for two further Queensland seats: one showing Kevin Rudd leading Bill Glasson 54-46 in Griffith, the other showing and Labor’s Shayne Neumann tied 50-50 with the Liberal National Party’s Teresa Harding.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition (plus marginals polling)”

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  1. Predictions:
    Looking ugly for ALP. Reckon they’ll lose at least 20 seats.
    95 – 53, seems about the best they can hope for unless there’s a late swing back.
    NSW -10 (Lindsay, Greenway, Parramatta, Reid,Banks,Robertson, Dobell,McMahon, Werriwa, Kingsford-Smith
    Vic -3 (Corrangamite,Deakin & Latrobe)
    Tas – 3 (Bass, Braddon, Lyons)
    QLD – 3 Moreton, Petrie, Lilley)
    NT – 1 Lingari
    SA & WA – No Change
    2PP by state to LNP – NSW 55.5%, Vic 49%, QLD 57%, SA 51.5%, WA 57.5%, Tas 50%.

    In addition I’d watch Capricornia/Rankin/Blair, Bendigo/Ballarat/McEwen, & Page/Richmond/Eden-Monaro, Franklin.

  2. The tensions will switch in a week from Gillard-Rudd to Abbott-Turnbull

    Abbott will have delivered so it will be all quiet on the Liberal western front.

  3. Lobbing missiles at syria gives assad an excuse to lob chemical weapons at israel. Israel would be outraged and would have the justification to launch a nuclear strike at syria. Iran and russia would respond and the US would be dragged into a nuclear war.

    2nd scenario would be russia incepts missiles and renders attack useless- cruise missiles are not that hard to shoot down. US would then launch an airstrike, which would need syrian air defences destroyed. Russia aids syria to shoot US planes. Cold war starts.

  4. [I have studied many of you, written about you academically]


    Did you discover that you are quite a popular dropkick among many here?

  5. Nah. Carey Moore.

    Look again at West Wing.

    The script has been followed by our finest. In their different ways and means.

    Bazza Obama is (surely) not that dumb.

    Sure, he was foolish to draw the red line.

    Now he seeks a way out.

  6. [1725

    I just like weather. Check out this aerial of Prevelly Beach this morning.

    Great pic…awesome. Reminds me of a wedding I went to at Redgate once…half the party decided to have a swim at Prevelly and a couple of blokes got swept away by the rip at the river mouth….no danger, but truly powerful surge running north.

  7. POlitics of a different kind
    This year for the first time AFL Final will be played next Saturday at Geelong’s Simmionds Stadium..a greatlkt renovated stadium ..Versus Fremantlke

    Fremantle was opposed to this and wanted to play on a larger Melb ground
    Geelong of course have a formidable record of winning at home

    So Fremantle Club ran a poll on their website …predictably they were getting 93% of voters in support of their”Don’t Go to Geeliong” poll…in the early polling…
    but …Geeloing supporters(one of my son ‘s amongst them ..) got wind and flooded the Fremantle site and the poll thxn showed 60% of Fremantle wanted to play at Geelong
    nest Saturday
    WOW the Fremantle site was then closed down and the poll stopped by the Fremantle Club !

  8. Bluepill

    I agree on the tribalism, it put Xanthippe off PB too, and myself for a while, and I am as disillusioned with the policy backflips and Labor party structure as most ex members.

    However when you refer to “smacking financial ruin” then you are talking Liberal soundbites. That is nonsense, Australia is still very secure financially. In fact, my main frustration with current Labor leaders, apart form the disastrous power struggle, has bee their inability to sell their financial success. We are per capita the third richest country on earth, with declining inflation, but you would never know it from the way Labor themselves talk.

  9. Is this the Tom Watson that was coming to rescue the ALP?

    He should high tail it back to the anti-antipodes for all the good he will do here…

  10. It will be funny to watch. 5 minutes after the voters have vented their long held anger on Labor they will then look to how much they really dislike Abbott.

  11. Is this the Tom Watson that was coming to rescue the ALP?

    I thought that he had come to rescue Australia from Rupert Murdoch, a far worthier cause.

  12. It will be funny to watch. 5 minutes after the voters have vented their long held anger on Labor they will then look to how much they really dislike Abbott.

    That is why it is important to vote…it gives one whinging rights.

  13. Next Sunday morning:

    – Will the sun still rise in the east?

    – Will the sky still be blue?

    – Will the Greens still be loons?

    I think so to all the above 😐

  14. fess

    Even worse he has the quote wRONg. He says it’s “Full body contact never hurt anyone.”, when the quote was “a bit of body contact never hurt anyone” which is quite different.

    It’s pretty hypocritical from someone who complains about media reporting.

  15. The world will continue … hopefully the ALP will be able to get their arses in gear and not spend the first time fighting and gift him a second.

  16. Next Sunday morning:

    – Will the sun still rise in the east?

    – Will the sky still be blue?

    – Will the Greens still be loons?

    I think so to all the above 😐

    I would like to see the betting markets before committing myself.

  17. I am opposed to Abbott and do not support him being PM but I am going to treat his PMship with an open mind and give him a chance to prove me wrong. It’s not really productive to deem someone a failure from the start – it impairs your judgement (you start seeing what you want to see) and just makes you look like a sour boy crying wolf. Let him have his honeymoon and give him some clear air. Then, if he does turn out to be a dud, then let actual anger fly, instead of confected stuff.

  18. bluepill
    [I am supposed to be impartial about you as subjects but over time I have become mad at your behaviour. I still don’t consider the coalition to have its best leaders of the last 20 years on deck but you have turned me against Labor.]

    That’s an instant fail!

  19. [He should high tail it back to the anti-antipodes for all the good he will do here…]

    How amusing … Mod Lib adds parochialism to her official attributes.

    I say let him speak all he wants. Free speech is a good thing.

  20. Every Australian PM(Except Menzies) since WW2 has suffered a heavy final defeat


    Chifley in 49
    McMahon in 72
    Whitlam in 75
    Fraser in 83
    Keating in 96
    Howard in 07

    So who expects Rudd’s fate to different now ???
    (add to tha list … pre=-war Bruce in 29/Scullin in 31 all swept out in a landslide )

  21. As a Sri Lankan- i had the greatest of misgivings for the Chinese. They came propped up the CBK government and bought political influence. And then there was tibet.
    Being in Australia and actually working with them i grew fonder of the people. It taught me u need to separate the people from the government.
    Hmm still stories about entire empty cities worry me about their future bitions

  22. Scarpat – Well Rudd delivered in 2007, and was out by 2010, it is not impossible the same will happen to Abbott

    Carey Moore What you are missing is the emergence of an increasingly isolationist right across the West. Cameron lost his parliamentary vote because of opposition from Tory backbenchers influenced by the rise of UKIP, in the US Rand Paul is now a leading contendor for the 2016 Republican nomination and Speaker Boehner and Republicans in the House are sceptical about action to say the least. In France, Marine Le Pen is rising in the polls. Abbott’s scepticism about intervention in Syria reflects that

  23. Scarpat

    We can’t be too sure about where the sun rises and the colour of the sky, but you don’t need a betting market, the Greens will always be LOONS 😀

  24. Eh, it’s not as if the world will end. If it does end, those of us who managed to survive can just vote Abbott out in another 3 years.

  25. Carey Moore

    ‘And to the counterpoint that using a term like “baddies” trivialises a grave problem. It really doesn’t. What it does is make it more accessible and understandable to people who aren’t intellectuals or experts’.

    Sure. I think it was Guytaur who linked a website US to ‘the baddies’ today.

    What he did not refer to were the comments.

    Which may not have been posted at that time.

    The comments I read were absolutely gunga din about ‘baddies.’

    God save us from the non intellectuals or experts.

    Maybe Ronald Reagan might help me out.

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