GhostWhoVotes relates that Galaxy has a national poll showing the Coalition leading 53-47, from primary votes of 35% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. We also have these latest additions to Galaxy’s series of 550-sample electorate-level automated phone polls:
• Three Perth seats have been targeted for the first electorate-level polls to emerge from Western Australia during the campaign. One of these, for the electorate of Perth, holds another distinction in being the first published opinion poll of any kind during the campaign to show a clear swing to Labor. It has Labor candidate Alannah MacTiernan leading Liberal candidate Darryl Moore by 58-42, compared with Stephen Smith’s 2010 margin of 5.9%. MacTiernan outperformed the state average by about 5% as the unsuccessful candidate for Canning in 2010.
• Less happily for Labor, the second poll shows Liberal member Ken Wyatt with a clear 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Adrian Evans in the state’s most marginal seat of Hasluck, which Wyatt holds for the Liberals on a margin of 0.6%.
• GhostWhoVotes also relates that a Brand poll has both parties on 42% of the primary vote, with no two-party preferred result provided. However, it would presumably give Labor member Gary Gray the lead over his Liberal challenger Donna Gordin. Gray polled 40.8% of the primary vote in 2010 to Gordin’s 39.4% (UPDATE: The two-party preferred turns out to be 52-48 to Labor).
• The other two polls are from Queensland, one being for the Townsville seat of Herbert, where Liberal National Party member Ewen Jones is given a 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Cathy O’Toole, compared with a 2010 margin of 2.2%.
• The second Queensland poll is from Herbert’s southern neighbour Dawson, and it shows LNP member George Christensen well clear of Labor candidate Bronwyn Taha with a lead of 57-43, compared with 2.4% in 2010.
UPDATE: Galaxy, which I have little doubt is doing the most credible work in the electorate-level automated phone poll game, now has polls for two further Queensland seats: one showing Kevin Rudd leading Bill Glasson 54-46 in Griffith, the other showing and Labor’s Shayne Neumann tied 50-50 with the Liberal National Party’s Teresa Harding.
The individual polls in SA and WA saying no movement of seats which is something Bludgertrack has been saying for at least several days.
[Brand 42-all PV]
Greens got 15% last time, with conservatve OTHs at around 5%.
Id say that puts Gray in ery much in the box seat, though I dont know whos running this time.
WA looking OK for ALP.
Same Liberal candidate in Brand as last time.
[WA looking OK for ALP.]
Having said that, I confess i know bugger all about WA marginals, and what the ALP might have hoped was in play.
When you only have 3 seats in the state, I am not sure the phrase “WA looking OK for ALP” is quite right….”no worse than last time” perhaps?
Well, as I said, ML.
Only 7 more sleeps to the day of fundamental injustice mk2
Indications are that it will be NSW and QLD where all the action will happen and perhaps some ripples in VIC and TAS.
Nothing’s affecting the polling anymore, people have tuned off.
lefty e
[… what the ALP might have hoped was in play ..]
I think that was: none of their 3 seats!
Brand is a mystery but Fremantle and Perth seem safe for ALP, as they always were I thought.
Well, the polls seem to have plateaued at least. The Coalition’s almost certainly going to win, but 53-47 is hardly a wipeout. And the Senate’s looking like it will be a nightmare for Abbott however it falls.
Not too late for Labor to saturate all media with the short simple message….
Taking money from all retiree’s income IS an Abbott policy. If you are a retiree or about to retire your income will be cut by Mr Abbott.
Nothing motivates like the direct threat to your money, especially older people who know they don’t have the option and go out and save more money, and if you hear nothing during an election campaign you will hear this.
I can only assume that Labor really doesn’t have much money at all. And I guess the last three years people haven’t felt like wanting to support Labor the way they used to.
But every vote that switches back is useful.
One good thing about the election being next week, all these Menzies House people will be unemployed as they would be on a casual basis How sad 😥
davidwh @8: more than mere ripples in Tas, I’m sensing.
[quote]Not too late for Labor to saturate all media with the short simple message….
Taking money from all retiree’s income IS an Abbott policy. If you are a retiree or about to retire your income will be cut by Mr Abbott.[/quote]
Isn’t there an advertising blackout soon? They’ll have to hurry…
Well if the last thing Labor are able to shout out before the black is ….duck!!! Maybe some will.
…black out….
53-47 will likely be 54-46 by Saturday. one K rudd has kept the swing down to 4 per cent and 20 odd seats. Better than the party of icac and Thommo deserve but there it is folks.
BludgerTrack has been updated with the Galaxy result, causing it to shift to the Coalition by 0.3% and two seats (one in Queensland and one in South Australia).
TP
[Taking money from all retiree’s income IS an Abbott policy. If you are a retiree or about to retire your income will be cut by Mr Abbott.]
What exactly are you talking about? The franking credit change for divs from top companies affects retirees with shares in those companies, and it’s not huge at all. In non top companies the div could increase with lower tax rate. As I pointed out to Mari, who’s in denial, low interest rates are hitting retirees a lot harder in the majority of cases and even hitting SFRs with balanced portfolios, without debating the whys, wherefores, rights, wrongs of current low interest rates. It’s just a fact.
[Taking money from all retiree’s income IS an Abbott policy. If you are a retiree or about to retire your income will be cut by Mr Abbott.]
Agree. This will cut through.
I even sort of agree with ESJ for once. Though I reckon it’ll come back: 52,5 max for LNP, possibly closer.
Electronic media blackout starts midnight Wednesday evening. Print mecdia not affected. http://www.aec.gov.au/faqs/election_advertising.htm. Probably relevant to the time that the Libs provide their costings.
My earlier guess of 46/36/10/8 for a 2PP result of 52.5/47.5 is looking sound at this stage.
Don’t think Labor strategist have understood anything about Abbott’s strategy.
Three word slogans repeated over and over…might be boring, annoying, tedious….but the message kept so simple and the meaning also…and you get the message out before the voter brain shuts down. It can even be based on bullshit…but how many times has abbott been asked …how and given even the slightest rational answer.
So Hindmarsh is now predicted to go to the Liberals?
In this campaign Galaxy has been consistently about a point or two behind Nielsen, Newspoll & Reachtel, so if they are up to 53% now..
It’s the convergence. Well apart from Essential.
[Three word slogans repeated over and over…might be boring, annoying, tedious….but the message kept so simple and the meaning also…and you get the message out before the voter brain shuts down. It can even be based on bullshit…but how many times has abbott been asked …how and given even the slightest rational answer.]
Won’t work in government!
Retirees beware…!
All the polls now seem to be converging on around 53-47 as the final result except Essential Research (but then Essential Research had it 53-47 soon after Rudd took over). 53-47 would be a respectable loss for the ALP, the same margin Howard lost by in 2007 and if, unlike Howard, Rudd holds his seat he may decide to stay on as leader. After all, as Swan now looks likely to lose his seat, in the new parliament all the Gillardites (Combet, Smith, probably Swan and Gillard herself) will be gone. The only other option is Shorten but he does not have Rudd’s faction and the remaining Gillardites see him as a Judas too.
The Franking credit impact is about $20 per $1,000 of income from one if the big companies affected by the levy for PPL. For a retiree whose income derives about 50% from medium to large Australian companies, this would amount to about 1% of their income – coincidentally about the same as that for the carbon tax, but without compensation.
I am a self-funded retiree. I won’t lose any sleep over it, especially if it paid for something like education or disability support or combating climate change, although there are higher priorities for my tax dollars than PPL for executives. But judging by the impact of the anti-Carbon tax campaign, many people do fret over any hit to their income, no matter how small or how worthy. The ALP should shout it from the rooftops.
The Senate looks touch and go..My understanding is the Libs need 39 votes to repeal the carbon tax (because they will need to appoint the Senate President. They have 34 now + Mr X & DLP =36. They will certainly gain one in Tas + KAP looks very likely to gain a ‘left’ seat in Qld. That’s 38 locked in. The final seat could come from SA, with a 3-2-1 result(with Mr X being the 1), NSW (right wing minor getting the 4th seat ahead of the greens) or WA (Nats).
I honesty think Labor has done the best with the cards they have been with in terms of campaigning. Tanner and Minchin were at a business lunch the other day and neither made any earth shattering suggestions of doing anything differently. Tanner suggested Labor should continue to pressure Liberals on costings. Minchin suggested that Liberals should be going more negative.
Tanner however did critcise Labor for it’s new way slogan. I have seen some of the liberals ads and I don’t think there amazing. There seems to be a perception that because the Liberals are ahead in the polls there running a great campaign. I personally don’t think the are. I just think with the turmoil with Labor’s leadership and the fact federally the liberal party seem to be the natural party for Australia in terms of government that their ahead in the polls.
I don’t give much credit to Abbott except for his ability to go negative. The man has no vision and is happy to destroy Labors NBN idea all for the sake of getting into government at whatever cost. He has no principles- he has no philosophy. There just clever focus polling slogans- “Stop the boats”, “stop the waste”- “a great big tax” and nothing more. Also Dennis Shanahan suggestion that Abbott’s the best opposition leader in two decades is laughable. Opposition in more then just attacking the government at any cost- but showing bi-partisan support when it’s necessary which there was very little under Abbott.
I can’t tolerate Abbott because he’s outlook is too rat on Labor under any circumstance. It was summed up when Margaret Whitlam passed away and when Abbott was asked to give a few words he said “and even though there was alot wrong with the Whitlam government”. He just couldn’t help himself, he had to put that little cheap shot in. John Howard would of handled it better.
TP : you may be right about the 3 word slogans. There is of course detail under this (eg per”River”on this blog) which amount to “Lies Lies Lies”
[quote]you may be right about the 3 word slogans. There is of course detail under this (eg per”River”on this blog) which amount to “Lies Lies Lies”[/quote]
Examples please.
Be interesting tocsee the effect of the liberal loonies in Western sydney. Everybody seems to be in hiding except Ray King who wants to microchip women in Burkas with a high powered rifle,cor something like that.
However, one thing is certain: Ray King and Jamie Diaz are, almost by definition, smarter than the liberal trolls on this blog.
peterk at 32,
The Senate President has a deliberative vote, not a casting vote. In the event of a tie in the Senate the motion fails.
39 votes is the amount required however.
[…waste”- “a great big tax” and nothing more. Also Dennis Shanahan suggestion that Abbott’s the best opposition leader in two decades is laughable]
Just about anyone other than Abbott would have scored the LNP government in 2010. The LNP haven’t yet realised what Abbott has cost then but they will by 2016.
And yes: Abbott can’t even behave when a foreign head if state is visiting. He still makes partisan comments, even when there’s a strong convention against it. This will certainly prove his undoing: probably around the time he appoints Howard as GG.
People have turned off the election.
That explains the increase in the numbers of people supporting the Liberals posting.
They are wanting to get their message out to ..well…no-one, because no-one is listening
One sure way to get more women into burkas is to ban them.
After all the smoke clears this time next week, at least I’ll be able to look forward to the shortest honeymoon period of any new PM ever.
David /33
I think Tanner is right about the ALP slogan. Its a disaster. Every time its mentioned it actually reminds people of the negatives. Much better to have gone with “Building the Australia of Tomorrow” or something like that and tie in with NDIS, Gonski, NBN and yes even the VFT..at least it would be a positive message.
As for the Liberals, I agree with Minchin too. They could have sharpened their negative attacks. Gone after the ALP Greens relationship /preference deals, emphasise the danger of another 3 years and the recent budget write down. Why not a worker in from the Latrobe Valley or Manafacturing sector saying “Mr Rudd I’m worried about my job. You said you would get rid of the Carbon Tax, But why then are you still giving your 2nd preferences to the Greens? Have you done another deal with them? If you win will the next three years be a repeat of the last 3?”
[quote]That explains the increase in the numbers of people supporting the Liberals posting.[/quote]
I took the ABC voting compass, and do you know what it told me? That I was a smidgen to the left of centre. I took a similar test 2 years ago and it told me I was a smidgen to the right of centre.
It’s a testiment to the extreme left wing nature of this board that I am called ‘right wing.’
But then again, commenters on the Guardian Australia website have called all the journalists on there (including David Marr) right-wing, so this must be typical socialist behaviour. Or something.
As depressing an election campaign as this has been, I’ll say this: the Libs have put themselves in a very unenviable position post September 7. They’ve given everything they have to win this election. They’ve promised everything to everyone, told blatant lie after lie after lie, made a truly ridiculous amount of (often contradictory) commitments they have no way of coming close to fulfilling, and worst of all for them (and us): it’s painfully obvious that they are not remotely fit for office. Their campaign of endless bullshit may be enough to win them government, but a big advantage of being in Opposition is that you don’t really have to do anything. It’s a different game once you have to actually deliver on your promises.
I doubt this is going to become truly apparent to the Libs until the shit has already hit the fan. They clearly believe that they can get away with ANYTHING now, and who can blame them after the last three years? When they inevitably fail to follow through on their grandoise promises and the economy goes into the shitter, Papa Murdoch can just take care of everything and shift the blame to Labor.
But I’m not sure even the Murdoch rags will be able to save Abbott from the hole he’s dug himself.
Winning the crown is the easy part. Much more difficult is keeping it.
Ban the Burqua …. for f**ks sake … what next, ban goths, punks, nuns? I couldnt give a toss what anyone wants to wear. If freedom means anything, it means wearing what you want to wear.
Ghost 37/
Yes that’s why 38 votes isn’t enough because I believe the convention is the government has to provide the President and then they’d be in a minority. I suppose they could try and do a Slipper and offer the Presidency to an ALP senator.
Asha Leu And if Abbott’s poll ratings head south, he will need to keep looking over his shoulder for Turnbull
Hindmarsh has a large number of aged people and will be hard to hold, despite all of Steve Georganas’s dedicated work over the years. Will those he has helped be grateful? The answer to that question will decide his fate – that and his low position on the ballot paper.
http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/article/2013/08/31/388303_news.html
More detail on Herbert & Dawson polls
[http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/life-is-much-better-under-labor-after-all-says-study-20130830-2sw8l.html]
And people are still silly enough to want to vote for the Fiberals. Weird.