Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition (plus marginals polling)

Galaxy has an on-trend national poll result plus more of its electorate-level automated polls, including the first such polling for the campaign from Western Australia.

GhostWhoVotes relates that Galaxy has a national poll showing the Coalition leading 53-47, from primary votes of 35% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. We also have these latest additions to Galaxy’s series of 550-sample electorate-level automated phone polls:

• Three Perth seats have been targeted for the first electorate-level polls to emerge from Western Australia during the campaign. One of these, for the electorate of Perth, holds another distinction in being the first published opinion poll of any kind during the campaign to show a clear swing to Labor. It has Labor candidate Alannah MacTiernan leading Liberal candidate Darryl Moore by 58-42, compared with Stephen Smith’s 2010 margin of 5.9%. MacTiernan outperformed the state average by about 5% as the unsuccessful candidate for Canning in 2010.

• Less happily for Labor, the second poll shows Liberal member Ken Wyatt with a clear 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Adrian Evans in the state’s most marginal seat of Hasluck, which Wyatt holds for the Liberals on a margin of 0.6%.

• GhostWhoVotes also relates that a Brand poll has both parties on 42% of the primary vote, with no two-party preferred result provided. However, it would presumably give Labor member Gary Gray the lead over his Liberal challenger Donna Gordin. Gray polled 40.8% of the primary vote in 2010 to Gordin’s 39.4% (UPDATE: The two-party preferred turns out to be 52-48 to Labor).

• The other two polls are from Queensland, one being for the Townsville seat of Herbert, where Liberal National Party member Ewen Jones is given a 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Cathy O’Toole, compared with a 2010 margin of 2.2%.

• The second Queensland poll is from Herbert’s southern neighbour Dawson, and it shows LNP member George Christensen well clear of Labor candidate Bronwyn Taha with a lead of 57-43, compared with 2.4% in 2010.

UPDATE: Galaxy, which I have little doubt is doing the most credible work in the electorate-level automated phone poll game, now has polls for two further Queensland seats: one showing Kevin Rudd leading Bill Glasson 54-46 in Griffith, the other showing and Labor’s Shayne Neumann tied 50-50 with the Liberal National Party’s Teresa Harding.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition (plus marginals polling)”

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  1. bluepill

    [FFS it’s “rogue” not “rouge” you morons..

    The only thing red around here should be your faces..]

    It is officially “rouge” on PB.

  2. Compact Crank

    Posted Sunday, September 1, 2013 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    zoidy @1690 – I suppose you think there is a $70 billion black hole in the costings too. I’m over your unfounded crap.
    ———————————————-

    Unfounded???

    Cut co-contribution to 3.7 million low paid workers, mainly women. (that fits with Abbotts attitude)

    Stop the School Kids payment (well Gina and the like don’t need it and its better to give them a tax cut)

    Increase tax for small business.

  3. [1671
    confessions
    briefly:

    Have you tried Met Eye? Pretty cool.]

    There’s something incredibly satisfying about data. Data seem to offer security, like a seawall or great tree, in contrast to the political theatre we see being rehearsed over and over in other contexts.

  4. Why all the mirth at “Bad vs Bad”?
    1/ It cuts through into voterland and the message is “lets not rush in.” That’s a sensible sentiment.
    2/ It’s a lot more mature than the usual “good vs bad” that we usually hear. And seems to also be more cautious than Mr Rudd’s approach. A very refreshing change. Let’s hope he keeps it up!

  5. Carey/Dio

    Ok.. I’m off the ledge but I’m a scientist and these things are important to me.. not really upset…. Breathe…. Breathe…

    Seriously.. is there a Newspoll? If not I might have the night off from nematode observations..

  6. Thanks, Kevin and William.

    To the extent that the Xenophon group is not allocating according to my preferences, I will vote below the line.

    I have taken into account what you have both said, not to mention person such as truth seeker.

    I intend after consideration to vote Labor first and whatever, according to earlier advice and put Nick somewhere further down the line.

    He will still get in, which I do not mind at all, as previously said, but I would detest the thought some other god knows would make it on the least of percentage whatsoever.

    So thank you, I need to convince the Nick X supporters of why they may be doing themselves a disservice, whilst not alienating them. In the sense that they may think I am ‘against Nick.’ Has it come to this? How wicked and contrary then is the process.

    They are generally Labor. I can hope.

  7. peterk@1710

    Why all the mirth at “Bad vs Bad”?
    1/ It cuts through into voterland and the message is “lets not rush in.” That’s a sensible sentiment.
    2/ It’s a lot more mature than the usual “good vs bad” that we usually hear. And seems to also be more cautious than Mr Rudd’s approach. A very refreshing change. Let’s hope he keeps it up!

    The problem with Abbott’s “sophistication” is that to the uninitiated it looks suspiciously like “uninformed idiocy”

  8. As I mentioned to someone yesterday who was arguing that retirees would only be paying around 1% tax on their franked credits to fund PPL

    How about instead of hitting the retirees we increase the top tax margin by 1%?.

    **chirp chirp**

  9. Comparisons between Iraq and Syria are not really that accurate. Although Iraq should be a lesson about unilateral wars and imposing liberation, it’s still a different kettle of fish. It’s more that the regional and global consequences could be dire that everyone needs to tread carefully on this.

    However, we can’t sit there and do nothing. Action should’ve been discussed a year ago, not now. But, better late than never. (And whether it’s chemical weapons or conventional arms, what is happening there is horrific.)

  10. [Johnny Button
    Posted Sunday, September 1, 2013 at 9:52 pm | PERMALINK
    RT @SpudBenBean: NEWSPOLL: Baddies 49.5 (-0.5) Baddies 50.5 (+0.5)]

    Very good!

  11. I think labor will hold its seats in wa and sa now.
    I think both nt seats will go to lnp. (-1)
    I think act will hold.
    I think between 3 and 6 seats will go in vic, but melbourne back to alp. Net (-2 – -5)
    I think qld will lose 4 seats.
    I think tas will lose 3 seats to lnp.
    I think nsw will be ugly. Up to 10 seats.
    90-95 seats to lnp.

  12. The baddies vs. baddies line is not at all incorrect. It actually quite accurate. And, crude as it may be, Abbott is talking to voters, not a group of International Relations professors.

    Labor are well advised to not go down the road of intellectual condescension.

  13. Frankly – the only thing that can work now on true undecideds and soft voters (and that is a decreasing number, despite what Newspoll might say) is positivity. Relentless negativity looks like desperation and will push people away.

  14. [Labor are well advised to not go down the road of intellectual condescension.]

    Too late. I heard Wong remarking on it earlier.

  15. @Carey re: Syria.
    Its a case of up to million syrian lives vs the rest of humanity. I believe the US is stupid enough to start a war between its self and Russia. I’d rather syrian government control than plunging into a new cold war. Its cruel, but its the only way.

  16. And to the counterpoint that using a term like “baddies” trivialises a grave problem. It really doesn’t. What it does is make it more accessible and understandable to people who aren’t intellectuals or experts.

  17. I have no sympathy for the creeps on this forum who have given coalition supporters stick since before 2007.

    Next Sunday Morning I hope you all wake up depressed, disillusioned with your stupid party and either walk away from it or get off your arses to change it.

    I still belong to no party. I very nearly joined the ALP in 2006 when others encouraged me to turn my love for psephology into something useful.

    Then I joined PB. I saw the stark tribalism and the polarity that meant if I criticised Labor then I ‘must’ be a coalition hack. I wasn’t then, I am not now and I don’t give a FQ who in this room believes it because I know after 7 years that your belief system and values are completely out of whack.

    I have studied many of you, written about you academically and, like a true ethnographer, tried to get inside your heads and work out your worldview. It was intriguing how you could so completely support complete backflips on policies again, and again and again. How you could justify the completely inappropriate way that the ALP has run this nation and lowered the bar of expectations of political behaviour, smacking financial ruin on the nation is beyond me.

    I am supposed to be impartial about you as subjects but over time I have become mad at your behaviour. I still don’t consider the coalition to have its best leaders of the last 20 years on deck but you have turned me against Labor.

    I would never even vote for you as I once did, let alone pay a single dollar to join your party or spend a minute going to a meeting.

    I sincerely hope and pray that next Sunday you walk outside, decide what you are going to do about this toxic party and make the decision to spend more time with your family.

    How much time has the ALP, politics, the hatred of Abbott/Gillard/Rudd consumed your life and robbed you of your family.

    May you walk away and decide not to hate, not to be consumed and not to trade your character for a party who doesn’t care about you.

    You need to break the habit. Seriously.

  18. [Frankly – the only thing that can work now on true undecideds and soft voters (and that is a decreasing number, despite what Newspoll might say) is positivity. Relentless negativity looks like desperation and will push people away.]

    And if I had to pinpoint one big no, no of the Labor campaign it would have been the negativity.

    Rudd was in with a big chance when he presented something positive in contrast to Rabbott’s relentless negativity.

    If Rudd had stayed really upbeat and positive it would have left nowhere for Rabbott to go.

  19. Again, if china seizes control of taiwan and slaughters thousands, what can the US do?
    Starting a war with china would be as dire.

  20. wal kola Obama seems unlikely to do much but lob a few missiles at worst, he has dithered on this from day one and now handed the decision to Congress, and the House of Representatives could even vote it down as the UK House of Commons has done (Speaker Boehner is sceptical to say the least) although the Senate will probably approve

  21. The problem with the baddies vs baddies line, which is quite true, is that it commits you to a position which makes it hard to adopt a more flexible approach to the problem (ie backflip) later on.

  22. What an exciting round of Rugby League.

    Did you guys check the standard of the Manly v Storm match last Sat night?

    Holy Carumba 😀

    Oh where is FARQ these days, hello are you there FARQ?

    Of course, since FARQ said that Centre constantly backs losing NRL teams, Centre has come out and tipped/backed 6 out of the last 7 😎

    Yeah, FAR…Q 😛

  23. I remember when the Iraq war was waging some said Nostradamus predicted a great tyrant from the Middle East starting a world war……I hope it wasn’t actually Bashir Assad rather than Saddam.

  24. [Its a case of up to million syrian lives vs the rest of humanity. I believe the US is stupid enough to start a war between its self and Russia. I’d rather syrian government control than plunging into a new cold war. Its cruel, but its the only way.]

    As I said, it’s a really difficult situation. While Russia have been deadly serious about this all, I doubt the US going in would lead to war. Cooler heads would probably* prevail. But it would create a new global rift that could shatter the liberal interdependence that’s kept the global community together since the end of the Cold War.

  25. [1699
    bluepill

    FFS it’s “rogue” not “rouge” you morons..

    The only thing red around here should be your faces..]

    Of course it’s rouge, a term that relates to the main entertainments here, which include pole dancing, putting lipstick on pigs, running mascara (laughing till you cry) and finding the beauty spot.

  26. bluepill If Abbott wins and then dips in the polls, the tensions in the leadership will just switch to the Liberals, after all, Turnbull was ousted by Abbott despite being more popular in the country, it is not completely impossible Abbott too could be ousted again if he the polls nosedive for the Coalition

  27. The problem with the baddies vs baddies line, which is quite true, is that it commits you to a position which makes it hard to adopt a more flexible approach to the problem (ie backflip) later on.

    It commits one to not having to do anything…

  28. My God…

    Politics is inherently personal. Now I do get deeply troubled by political tribalism, I don’t know how many times I’ve asked die-hards on both sides what makes them support the party they do… it’s alarming how many can’t actually give me an answer that doesn’t extend beyond Uni politics arguments of ‘socialist’ or ‘bigoted fascists’.

    But if you think the problem you’ve outlined isn’t a problem with all political animals all around, then your observations are wrong.

  29. [Again, if china seizes control of taiwan and slaughters thousands, what can the US do?
    Starting a war with china would be as dire.]

    China won’t. China can’t afford a war with the west and it has no interest in pursuing Taiwan. The gains it’d make from annexing a small bit of territory would be outweighed by the losses both of a costly war and exclusion from a marketplace it’s dominating in.

    China have economic interests in the status quo. Another win for liberalism!

  30. Carey:

    It’s a GW Bush-ism absolute. The Syria stuff and how the world responds is still evolving, and we don’t want to be saying things that lock us into a particular position.

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