Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition (plus marginals polling)

Galaxy has an on-trend national poll result plus more of its electorate-level automated polls, including the first such polling for the campaign from Western Australia.

GhostWhoVotes relates that Galaxy has a national poll showing the Coalition leading 53-47, from primary votes of 35% for Labor, 46% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. We also have these latest additions to Galaxy’s series of 550-sample electorate-level automated phone polls:

• Three Perth seats have been targeted for the first electorate-level polls to emerge from Western Australia during the campaign. One of these, for the electorate of Perth, holds another distinction in being the first published opinion poll of any kind during the campaign to show a clear swing to Labor. It has Labor candidate Alannah MacTiernan leading Liberal candidate Darryl Moore by 58-42, compared with Stephen Smith’s 2010 margin of 5.9%. MacTiernan outperformed the state average by about 5% as the unsuccessful candidate for Canning in 2010.

• Less happily for Labor, the second poll shows Liberal member Ken Wyatt with a clear 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Adrian Evans in the state’s most marginal seat of Hasluck, which Wyatt holds for the Liberals on a margin of 0.6%.

• GhostWhoVotes also relates that a Brand poll has both parties on 42% of the primary vote, with no two-party preferred result provided. However, it would presumably give Labor member Gary Gray the lead over his Liberal challenger Donna Gordin. Gray polled 40.8% of the primary vote in 2010 to Gordin’s 39.4% (UPDATE: The two-party preferred turns out to be 52-48 to Labor).

• The other two polls are from Queensland, one being for the Townsville seat of Herbert, where Liberal National Party member Ewen Jones is given a 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Cathy O’Toole, compared with a 2010 margin of 2.2%.

• The second Queensland poll is from Herbert’s southern neighbour Dawson, and it shows LNP member George Christensen well clear of Labor candidate Bronwyn Taha with a lead of 57-43, compared with 2.4% in 2010.

UPDATE: Galaxy, which I have little doubt is doing the most credible work in the electorate-level automated phone poll game, now has polls for two further Queensland seats: one showing Kevin Rudd leading Bill Glasson 54-46 in Griffith, the other showing and Labor’s Shayne Neumann tied 50-50 with the Liberal National Party’s Teresa Harding.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47 to Coalition (plus marginals polling)”

Comments Page 3 of 37
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  1. DisplayName

    Posted Saturday, August 31, 2013 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    CC

    I’m not going to educate you on why Bikies have a 1% patch on their colours

    Fair enough.

    *goes to look it up*
    ———————————————–

    1% represents the percentage of society they make up.

    The Police anti-bike squad have a badge 99%

  2. Labor was doomed the moment Gillard did the deal with the Greens to legislate for a price on carbon.
    Talking to some Liberal voting family members of mine today about the election. Believe it or not, they are no fans of Abbott, they would prefer Turnball as Liberal leader.
    The consensus seems to be that if Abbott by 2016 has not stopped the boats and not reduced power prices, the Libs will be a one term government.

  3. Their slogan should have been “getting on with business” and when prodded the response would be “we have a sense of humour” :P.

  7. Player One@81

    Player One is, as you will come to realise, a concern troll and is totally consumed by hatred of Rudd to the point where it blinds her to reality.


    As usual, bemused. You are wrong on all counts.

    Not so.


    Do you even know what a “concern troll” is?

    Yes. Do you?


    And why do you keep referring to me as “her”?

    You mean you are not female? 😮

  8. glory

    To take an extreme example. Abbott could die in an accident tomorrow and that would mean PMKR would have to be in with a chance.

    I am of course not suggesting that. I am saying however its not over til its over.

  12. As we all knew it would the excuse “he wasn’t recalled soon enough” has started to appear.

    People keep thinking its the captain who is the problem when it is the ship that is sinking.

  13. David /84
    Yes but that was two years ago, and she recovered from that. In the current cycle it was 29%. I still believe she would have lost by more than Rudd, but its cherry picking to keep using the 29%

  14. [confessions
    Posted Saturday, August 31, 2013 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

    Adelaide have thumped WEst Coast.

    Another round for upsets.]

    The way West Coast have been travelling of late I would hardly call that an upset. Poor old Cows, if not for Carlton’s one point win they would be in the finals.

  15. eg

    “@laurieload: #AustraliaNeedsTony to stop wearing budgie smugglers and talking to girls about full body contact #auspol #AusVotes”

  16. [ Evan Parsons
    Posted Saturday, August 31, 2013 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    Labor was doomed the moment Gillard did the deal with the Greens to legislate for a price on carbon.
    Talking to some Liberal voting family members of mine today about the election. Believe it or not, they are no fans of Abbott, they would prefer Turnball as Liberal leader.]

    There’s a ton who feel like that but, unfortunately for Rudd, this government has been such a shambles that it’s possible to see past the distaste for Abbott on the grounds that he’s probably not going to be worse.

  20. [guytaur
    Posted Saturday, August 31, 2013 at 11:57 pm | Permalink

    @smh: Tony Abbott will not release detailed costings of his policy promises until the last few hours before the poll. http://t.co/YVF81RPvUB

    Hiding the truth. How can you trust them?]

    In a battle between suspected liars and proven liars the suspected liars will always come out on top.

  21. Why not? Does it conflict with your narrow view of reality?

    Ummmmmm player one I don’t see where your constructive criticism is? I just wrote a paragraph disagreeing with you on the issues. And you have not answered anything of it- except taken the last sentence and made some irrelevant stab at me. Can’t win on the facts- so instead just make it some snide remark that wasn’t warranted.

  23. Fess
    There was such a religious fervour among some of them it will take a fair bit of time to come to the realisation that he was not the Messiah,
    surprisingly some of the worst got over it quickly including Evan Parsons and Jaundiced View but there is little hope of recovery for the older ones like bemused.

  24. “@LukeBazMort: ‘Australia Needs Tony!’ screams Rupert’s press. Jeez they’re getting desperate at News Corp. Must be closer than we think. #auspol #ausvotes”

  26. Player One@89

    Also people forget that 29% was Gillard’s lowest point. It was 32% just before that and early this year it was 48% 2PP, but started deteriorating just before Rudd’s March shenanigans, which accelerated it.


    Please don’t undermine bemused’s narrative with facts!

    The facts are not of any help to you.

  28. Article of voting advice for Tassie voters, but interstate audiences may well find interesting too:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/if-you-care-about-gay-rights-vote-below.html

    If You Care About Gay Rights Vote Below The Line In The Tasmanian Senate

    (And I don’t just mean SSM either – I mean gay rights of any sort at all.)

    Virtually all above-the-line preferences in the Tasmanian Senate have the potential to go to Family First’s Peter Madden, who has (among other extreme statements) endorsed and praised Putin’s anti-gay laws. The Sex Party and the Pirate Party are the only parties not to have put FF above at least one of ALP, Green and Lib; even the Greens have put Peter Madden 18th.

  30. OC:

    It remains to be seen just what the medium to longer term fall out of the 3 years of destabilisation and disunity will bring.

    Short term it’s been a disaster for Labor.

  31. [Virtually all above-the-line preferences in the Tasmanian Senate have the potential to go to Family First’s Peter Madden]

    Aren’t Labor preferencing the Greens in the Senate in Tas? Granted they have preferenced FF way up there.

    What a shame Tas doesn’t have the Secular Party running.

  32. Player One@109

    You mean you are not female?


    Why? Is that somehow important to you?

    Well you were obviously concerned that I had used female pronouns to refer to you.

    So please clarify so I cause you no further distress.

  33. peterk 113# No it’s not cherry picking there was no recovery! Gillards had Labor’s primary vote consistently in the late twenties/early thirties in her prime minster-ship. Abbott was never seriously threatened at all.

    The truth is Gillard’s vote was soft to begin with- when there was a leak in the 2010 federal election campaign Labor lost seven points on the primary vote!!! It should of never been seven points- maybe 1 or 2 points but not seven. The truth is the polling that undermined Rudd that got Gillard the prime minstership was soft. It wasn’t credible and the honeymoon period lasted 3 seconds and was eaten up in the federal election campaign.

  34. Fess
    I worry about the long term. This government was a good government compared to the last days of Bligh and Kennelly but in both those states there has been no evidence of a resurgence after a cataclysmic defeat. We may be entering the end game for Labor

  35. [ Short term it’s been a disaster for Labor. ]

    But hey … at least after the election they can sit around in their little opposition party gatherings and console themselves that it would all have been much, much worse under Gillard.

    Cretins.

  36. [ So please clarify so I cause you no further distress. ]

    You don’t distress me at all, bemused.

    But you do amuse me sometimes – like right now.

  37. [ We may be entering the end game for Labor ]

    Yes, I feel this to be true. A new progressive force is required in Australia. Not sure when, where or how this will occur, but the ALP doesn’t seem capable of providing it any longer.

  38. Just had a night out which included supper with a member of the Tasmanian upper house.

    He had no idea that the firm who did the ‘audited’costings of the coalitions policies in 2010 had been fine for professional misconduct.

    Didn’t know anything about anything to do with Hockey’s costings debacle of 2010.

    Now, seriously. How much of any of this does amyone think registers with the punters.

    And Jesus balled his eyes out.

  39. confessions@131

    Virtually all above-the-line preferences in the Tasmanian Senate have the potential to go to Family First’s Peter Madden


    Aren’t Labor preferencing the Greens in the Senate in Tas? Granted they have preferenced FF way up there.

    What a shame Tas doesn’t have the Secular Party running.

    Labor are preferencing the Greens but it’s quite probable the Greens will be already elected if/when Labor are cut out, or that even if the Greens get that preference it could be part-redistributed as part of a surplus, immediately or later.

    The point is that in the possible battle between the Liberals and FF for the last seat, both Labor and the Greens have preferred an anti-gay extremist over the Liberals, and those votes could well reach him. Indeed if there is such a battle almost everyone’s preferences go to FF.

    Bad as the Liberals are on gay rights, this guy is much, much worse.

    I’ve set my priorities for the next election after this one by the way. Every elected party that fails to do something about getting rid of group tickets from the Senate goes to the space on my ballot paper just above the homophobes.

  40. Funny about that picture of Tony on the front page of the the Sunday Telecrap. No photoshopping. No rat’s whiskers. No Pinochhio nose. No Nazi uniforms. Australian flag in the background.

    “Australia needs Tony”. Yes, like it needs a dose of the flu. The Murdoch rags have lost all credibility as journals of record. They have no more credibility as accurate and unbiased reporting of how the country is travelling than the leaflets shoved into my letter box on behalf of my local MP (Joe Hockey).

    Here’s a list of media outlets to avoid handing your hard-earned over to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_News_Corp

  41. OC, PO:

    Yes it’s all very despairing. Esp when you think that all that disunity and destabilising was for no strategic long term benefit. If anything it has made the party look like a self indulgent basket case.

  42. Let me just make sure you fukers here getthis:
    Just had a night out which included supper with a member of the Tasmanian upper house.

    He had no idea that the firm who did the ‘audited’costings of the coalitions policies in 2010 had been fine for professional misconduct.

    Didn’t know anything about anything to do with Hockey’s costings debacle of 2010.

    Now, seriously. How much of any of this does amyone think registers with the punters.

    Labor have never understood the importance of keeping the punters up to speed.

  44. [I’ve set my priorities for the next election after this one by the way. Every elected party that fails to do something about getting rid of group tickets from the Senate goes to the space on my ballot paper just above the homophobes.]

    Sounds like a good strategy Kevin.

  45. [Not too late for Labor to saturate all media with the short simple message….]

    What….. We are sorry for Kevin and Gillard, but trust us, we will find another “real” leader if you vote for us.

  47. Yes, why didn’t Rudd run a more Prime Ministerial campaign ….after 6 weeks in the job?

    *scratches head*

    Come on, get with the program: the guys making a fair fist of pushing 68 tons of shit uphill.

  48. Rosemour or Less@142

    Let me just make sure you fukers here getthis:
    Just had a night out which included supper with a member of the Tasmanian upper house.

    He had no idea that the firm who did the ‘audited’costings of the coalitions policies in 2010 had been fine for professional misconduct.

    Didn’t know anything about anything to do with Hockey’s costings debacle of 2010.

    Now, seriously. How much of any of this does amyone think registers with the punters.

    Labor have never understood the importance of keeping the punters up to speed.

    So what’s your point?

    You associate with idiots?

    The stories I have heard about Tasmanians are true?

  49. [146
    zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, September 1, 2013 at 12:35 am | PERMALINK
    @rummel/145

    And we expect us to “trust” Abbott?

    Bwahahaha.]

    Bahhhha no! Australia trusts that labor can’t sort it’s own shit out first.

  50. @rummel/149

    The only way it can sort it own shit out is when they back in power, including ICAC corruption.

    You can’t change laws in Opposition.

    You can only do party-reform in Opposition which are not laws.

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