Newspoll: 9% swing in Sydney marginals

An 800-sample Newspoll survey supports an impression that Sydney alone stands to put victory beyond Labor’s reach.

Newspoll today brings a poll from a sample of 800 respondents from the five most marginal Labor electorates in Sydney – Greenway (0.9%), Lindsay (1.1%), Banks (1.5%), Reid (2.7%) and Parramatta (4.4%) – which suggests the whole lot will be swept away, and perhaps others besides. Labor’s collective two-party preferred vote across the five seats is put at 43%, which compares with 52.1% at the 2010 election. The primary vote has Labor down from 43.2% to 34%, the Liberals up from 42.8% to 52%, the Greens down from 7.9% to 7% and “others” up from 6.1% to 7%. On two party preferred, Labor is down from 52.1% to 43%. Tony Abbott is also given better personal ratings (47% approval and 46% disapproval) than Kevin Rudd (37% and 55%), and leads 46-40 as preferred prime minister. The margin of error for the poll is about 3.5%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham observes in comments: “These five were all surveyed by Galaxy which averaged 48:52 in the same electorates, via robopolling, with a much larger sample size, last week. It’s not likely voting intention has moved anything like five points in a week. So either someone has a house effect or someone (most likely Newspoll) has an inaccurate sample.”

UPDATE 2 (Galaxy Adelaide poll): The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan poll): Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,483 comments on “Newspoll: 9% swing in Sydney marginals”

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  1. The most likely 8 of the 13 seats the LNP need to reach my prediction of 88:
    Corangamite
    Greenway
    La Trobe
    Robertson
    Lindsay
    Moreton
    Banks
    Deacon
    Reid
    Lingiari
    Page
    Eden-Monaro
    Parramatta
    Dobell
    Hindmarsh
    Bass
    Braddon
    Franklin
    Wakefield

  2. Mod Lib

    You have to add the Lib and ALP vote together (use a calculator if you wish) if it is higher than Bandt he loses. 😛

  3. Corangamite (Liberal gain)
    Greenway (Liberal gain although the candidate seems unsure or unable to explain his policies may hurt the Liberal vote)
    La Trobe (Liberal gain)
    Robertson (Liberal gain but Deb O’Neill surprised many by winning last time and may be a bit like Jackie Kelly)
    Lindsay (Liberal gain)
    Moreton (Liberal gain but Queensland doesn’t seem as clear cut as elsewhere in the country)
    Banks (Liberal gain)
    Deacon (Deakin: Liberal gain)
    Reid (Liberal gain)
    Lingiari (Too close to call, leaning towards the Liberals)
    Page (Looks like a potential Liberal gain but ALP apparently polling better outside of Sydney & Central Coast)
    Eden-Monaro (Looks like a potential Liberal gain but ALP apparently polling better outside of Sydney & Central Coast)
    Parramatta (Liberal gain)
    Dobell (Liberal gain)
    Hindmarsh (ALP hold)
    Bass (Liberal gain)
    Braddon (Liberal gain)
    Franklin (ALP hold)
    Wakefield (ALP hold)

  7. [Meguire Bob
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:19 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod lib

    On election night or sunday i will be waiting to see what your excuse will be ,

    on why the coalition did not win government ?

    why the opinion polls got it wrong?]

    I will be looking out for you too Meguire Bob, trust me! 🙂

  9. I was wondering if anyone has seen any opinion polling figures for the ACT? Presumably the Libs will still get a credible result (particularly in the seat of Canberra) and will also elect the far right candidate Zed Seselja.

    What I think is highly impressive about the many tens of thousands of Canberrans (and Eden-Monarans, Rummel) is their altruism. Given their policies re public service cuts, the election of an Abbott Government will rapidly wipe 10-20% of the value of all property assets, and many other sorts of assets, across the ACT. But, notwithstanding the personal cost, these people are going to vote 1 Liberal because they care so much about the good of the country.

    Of perhaps we might do better to characterize them as “turkeys voting for Thanksgiving”.

    Sigh…..

  11. We will see Meguire Bob, but ignoring current opinion polls & saying they don’t count is pig headed.
    Opinion polls are good indication on how people intend to vote & all current polls show a significant swing to the LNP! ALP starts behind in seats & needs to get a swing to it to come even close!
    Reality check is needed!

  12. [ruawake
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:23 pm | PERMALINK
    Mod Lib

    You have to add the Lib and ALP vote together (use a calculator if you wish) if it is higher than Bandt he loses]

    Nope….well at least, not necessarily!

    As I said, I suspect quite a few non-ALP, non-Green voters in that electorate will preference Greens ahead of ALP, including Lib voters.

  15. mb

    I have had this discussion with Liberal voting small business persons. They talk a bit like ST and are pathetically eager to shoot themselves in the foot, financially, while babbling on about how Labor does not care about business.

    Canberra is already being damaged by the resort of both Gillard and Rudd to the spuriously named ‘efficiency’ dividend. Everywhere you look you see ‘For Lease’ signs.

  16. [I mean 6.5% in QLD for PUP.]

    We are thinking he is about 12% in Fairfax. Funny how Clive is doing better than the Nats. 🙂

  19. [If the ALP only poll 30% with the Liberals polling 47% the result would be similar in TPP to 1975]

    No Greens in 1975, some people say the silliest things. 😛

  20. [If the ALP only poll 30% with the Liberals polling 47% the result would be similar in TPP to 1975]

    There goes the furniture.

  22. Was asked yesterday by old ALP comrade to do some HTVcardinging. She took it on the chin when I told her why I wouldn’t be doing any HTVCard handouting this election.

    Maybe next election? Who knows? Will the Labor Party get its act together and put up a candidate for prime minister who is honest, has integrity and respect for others? Will they be able to find someone who is committed to values, principles and policies?

    Let us all hope so.

  23. [The Weather Bureau’s history books are set to be rewritten tomorrow as Perth prepares to see off its warmest August on record.

    If the mercury reaches 19.5C – the forecast top is 22C – Perth will have enjoyed its highest average August maximum since records began in 1897.

    Barring an unexpected and dramatic cold change, four of the hottest five Augusts have come in the last seven years.]

    But nobody mention AGW.

  24. [deakin]

    Not sure how that happened! It is correct in my excel spreadsheet….perhaps it autocorrected while I typed it?????

  26. [Oakeshott Country
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:28 pm | PERMALINK
    Kezza 2

    I think you are thinking of someone else.]

    Actually I was joking. Playing on the absurdity of Australians always embracing NZ celebrity as our own.

    I was just trying the reverse, like getting rid of our embarrassments and laying them on NZ.

    Didn’t work. You were on it immediately.

    Hope no-one else thought it was true.

  27. Rolf Harris grew up in Bassendean in Perth.

    Not NZ.

    Nah. He grew up in NZ. Stands to reason. That Bassendean story is Kiwi disinformation. They keep claiming our actors and singers and then when they produce someone like Harris they blame Purth.

  28. BW
    “Canberra is already being damaged by the resort of both Gillard and Rudd to the spuriously named ‘efficiency’ dividend. Everywhere you look you see ‘For Lease’ signs.”

    You should see Brisbane!!

  30. Libs getting more desperate. This e-mail was sent out today

    Friend,

    We knew Labor would try anything to cling to power, but this time their lies are so blatant that three of Australia’s most senior economic officials were forced to expose them.

    But that won’t stop Labor’s lies and attacks continuing.

    That is why I’m asking for your support:

    Can you give $500, $250, or $50 today to help us defend the truth in this campaign?

    With just a week to go, the lies growing, and the union bosses pouring millions into negative attack ads, we are counting on your help.

    Friend, we need your most generous contribution to directly help us fight back against the mother of all scare campaigns.

    Click here to help us fight back: https//www.liberal.org.au/donate

    Thank you for your support so far. It makes a difference.

  31. “Maybe next election? Who knows? Will the Labor Party get its act together and put up a candidate for prime minister who is honest, has integrity and respect for others? Will they be able to find someone who is committed to values, principles and policies?”

    The ALP had one.

    Julia Gillard

  33. Labor got a primary of 43% in 1975. In the 37 years since then a large part of its constituency has left with little chance of coming back.

  34. Ru

    Lets say the ALP poll 30% and the Greens poll 10% then 8% of Green preferences go to the ALP increasing their vote to 38%

    Now lets say the ALP are on 38% and the LNP are on 47% leaving 15%, it may flow 60-40 towards the Liberals so that gives you are TPP of about 58% or 59% to the Liberals.

    Lets say the 15% flows 60-40 towards the ALP, the ALP will only reach about 46.

    Basically if the ALP poll as low as 30% even with the Greens polling 10% the ALP will be well beaten.

  37. So the party of ICAC awaits its day of judgement having had Treasury stick the stiletto in on the way out Game of Thrones style.

    Where is General Wenck when you need him?

  39. [Basically if the ALP poll as low as 30% even with the Greens polling 10% the ALP will be well beaten.]

    If my aunt had a dick she would be my uncle. 😛

  42. BW@1165. Labor might not care about business, but the Libs undoubtedly do not give a flying f— about businesses in the ACT. I’ve always seen the small business sector as a Darwinian world of dog eat dog and I think the one word that encapsulates the people to whom you’ve been talking is “lunch”!

  43. [ Edward StJohn
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:38 pm | Permalink

    So the party of ICAC awaits its day of judgement having had Treasury stick the stiletto in on the way out Game of Thrones style. ]

    I just hope criminal charges are laid and they stick.

  46. AA @1070

    Jokeshot and Whinger went with the ALP out of self preservation and relevance deprivation syndrome. They knew the polling was trending to the Coalition and that a Coalition Government was likely to go to an early poll in order to consolidate.

  48. kezza2

    [Playing on the absurdity of Australians always embracing NZ celebrity as our own. ]
    I really wish I had kept the papers.The most 😆 ever for me was a couple of days after the Worst Australian trumpeting “Australian comedienne Pamela Stephenson ” for winning and award it was “Kiwi comedian Disgraces Herself” . She’d taken her knickers off for a dare while out with Fergie and Di.

  49. [Boerwar
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:33 pm | PERMALINK
    Was asked yesterday by old ALP comrade to do some HTVcardinging. She took it on the chin when I told her why I wouldn’t be doing any HTVCard handouting this election.]

    Was called today by the candidate to make sure I was still going to hand out HTV.

    Yes, I was still going to help. Had an interesting chat.

    BW, hope you feel the ecstasy of blighting your own party at the end of September 7.

    I’ll at least know that I tried to keep the f*ckers out, instead of feeling a great sense of righteous indignation.

  50. Zoidlord

    It was nasal gazing for i would image the ALP will poll more than 30, maybe even break though the 35%, I think the Liberals may finish short of 45%

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