Newspoll today brings a poll from a sample of 800 respondents from the five most marginal Labor electorates in Sydney – Greenway (0.9%), Lindsay (1.1%), Banks (1.5%), Reid (2.7%) and Parramatta (4.4%) – which suggests the whole lot will be swept away, and perhaps others besides. Labor’s collective two-party preferred vote across the five seats is put at 43%, which compares with 52.1% at the 2010 election. The primary vote has Labor down from 43.2% to 34%, the Liberals up from 42.8% to 52%, the Greens down from 7.9% to 7% and “others” up from 6.1% to 7%. On two party preferred, Labor is down from 52.1% to 43%. Tony Abbott is also given better personal ratings (47% approval and 46% disapproval) than Kevin Rudd (37% and 55%), and leads 46-40 as preferred prime minister. The margin of error for the poll is about 3.5%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Kevin Bonham observes in comments: “These five were all surveyed by Galaxy which averaged 48:52 in the same electorates, via robopolling, with a much larger sample size, last week. It’s not likely voting intention has moved anything like five points in a week. So either someone has a house effect or someone (most likely Newspoll) has an inaccurate sample.”
UPDATE 2 (Galaxy Adelaide poll): The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.
UPDATE 3 (Morgan poll): Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll.
[Meguire Bob
Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 6:58 pm | PERMALINK
centre
i call labor on 80 seats]
Are you including Senators?
That is the only way you could seriously get the ALP to 80 LOL 🙂
On Morgan, this poll is actually very helpful. Last week or so they put out a phone only poll. 57-43 to the Libs.
This poll is phone and internet and pulls it back to 53-47, it shows that online voting benefits the ALP while phone benefits the Libs.
We will find out which method is better soon.
Mod Lib
Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 6:59 pm | PERMALINK
Because it was a pointless ramble.
———————————
How ?
Good on you Bob Meguire.
Dont give up ALP supporters! Fight it out till the end!
Bad poll but we’re not there yet.
[Centre
Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 6:59 pm | PERMALINK
goody beemer
I’ll have a go, I’ve just gotta beat Mod Lib]
Its gotta happen just by chance at some stage!
I cant get closer than anyone else here for every election indefinitely after all :devil:
Centre
This election has seen a lack of seat predictions, in 2007 and 2010 nearly every day we had people making seat predictions.
At the moment i still have the LNP on around 90 thanks mostly to NSW and Queensland.
Kezza $100,000* 1.03 = $103,000 year 1
$103,000 * 1.03 = ……. Year 2
And so on
@centre
12 percent and climbing, how’s that 7 percent working for you? :devil:
CC @6:35pm – of course Australia can’t fix the problem on its own. The Carbon price, intended to move to an emissions trading scheme, is our part in what has to be an international effort. In carbon emissions, Australia punches above its weight – 1.5% of emissions from 0.3% of the world’s population. Us taking a leadership role will help move things along, while withdrawing from action will slow things down. We might just as well say our contributions to WWI and WW2 didn’t matter.
Mod Lib
What are you thinking, how many seats for the ALP?
matt31
Beautiful, don’t worry, the Greens will poll less than 9%.
At best they’ll get in the 8s, I reckon the 7s to be safe 😎
$106,090 year 2
$109,273 year 3
$112,550 year 4
beemer
I think coz Labor are losing.
Z 1095
Because they were not involved in the worst government corruption since the Rum Corps seized power and stole the NSW financial system – a little different from putting your todger in a glass of red wine
Rolf Harris farked. One charge relates to photos taken last year.
Mod lib
stil lwaiting
How was comment about the betting market getting it so wrong in 2010 is sad
[Mod Lib
Posted Sunday, August 4, 2013 at 11:28 pm | PERMALINK
2013 Election Predictions Draft 1:
LNP 83
ALP 64
Green 1
Wilkie 1
Katter 1]
That was my prediction about a month ago. Not bad, eh? The polling and Bludgertrack were not showing anything like that, nor was the betting markets, from memory, but I reckon I had it pretty much on the mark, perhaps a little light error of being too generous to the ALP.
Therefore I updated my prediciton about a week ago, and re-iterate it now:
2013 Election Predictions Draft 3:
LNP 88
ALP 59
Green 1
Wilkie 1
Katter 1
Yes, I reckon Bandt is going to win (along with Katter and Wilkie, although those ones are easy as everyone else is predicting that too whereas few seem to be predicting Bandt)
The betting markets
1- Katter gave away the result
2- Windsor was elected on nbn, price on carbon etc
and the betting markets still picked the coalition ?
Mod Lib
you are embarassing yourself
[Yes, I reckon Bandt is going to win…]
How?
@Mod Lib/1117
Kinda funny that you give more bias to the LNP.
ruawake:
[On Morgan, this poll is actually very helpful. Last week or so they put out a phone only poll. 57-43 to the Libs.
This poll is phone and internet and pulls it back to 53-47,]
Thanks Rua.
Can you post a link for that 57-43 Morgan, please?
davidwh
[Kezza $100,000* 1.03 = $103,000 year 1
$103,000 * 1.03 = ……. Year 2
And so on]
Oh, I see what you mean, now.
You’re not such a bad grandparent, after all.
And I’m not such a stupid pupil. Slow, but not stupid.
Thanks ever so much. Very appreciated.
Mod Lib
Okay, we’ll see which Bludger gets the closest?
William if you are there, we want a seat prediction thread so I can whip everyone’s butt 😆
I’ve got modest bet on NU-CA-STLE to start the weekend 😛
*knoch yourselves out 🙂
@Meguire Bob-
Admire your optimism, but Labor is going to lose badly!
Predicting a majority ALP government with 80 seats is dillusional!
Where in hell do you think they are going to win these seats to offset their loses in NSW, Victoria, TAS? You may win seats in Qld, but your expected to lose some there as well!
I fail to see your outcome! Wishful thinking I think.
Mod Lilb
is going to miss out like the 1993 election
Just imagine mod lib prediction then , the poll lbudger would likely had coalition over 100 seats
In Sydney yesterday saw Turnbull signs with no mention of Liberal.
Maybe he’ll be the next Leader of the Opposition.
The seats from which I get my 89 to 61 righties to lefties results.
The LNP will get to 88 with the current 75, incl Lyne and N.England + 13 of these 19:
Corangamite
Greenway
La Trobe
Robertson
Lindsay
Moreton
Banks
Deacon
Reid
Lingiari
Page
Eden-Monaro
Parramatta
Dobell
Hindmarsh
Bass
Braddon
Franklin
Wakefield
[Diogenes
Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:06 pm | PERMALINK
Rolf Harris farked. One charge relates to photos taken last year.]
At least he’s not Australian. Don’t we palm all those yukky NZers back where they belong?
kezza 2 @ 1004
Someone else may have answered your question already but this is a handy little tool. Only lets you go to 2012 though.
http://www.rba.gov.au/calculator/
Wesley Rickard
Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:12 pm | PERMALINK
Predicting a majority ALP government with 80 seats is dillusional!
—————–
Not as delusional as predicting the election on opinion polling , which never counts in the final election result
Bandt appears to have a more viable campaign than Cath Bowtell has been able to run.
The Liberals have also run a responsible high profile campaign and may do a bit better than they usually do.
Some polls show Bandt struggling in the low 30s yet one or two have shown him in the 40s.
Melbourne is a hard seat to read, at this stage i am tipping Bandt may just hold.
Happy to help Kezza. If you think 3% is too high just change the 1.03 to whatever seems appropriate.
Just watched the Zed vs Lundy debate. There must be a factory turning out LibBot slogan bogans.
We would had John Hewson as prime minister if opinion polling was taken seriously
I was in Lismore last week and the vibe is that Page and Richmond are gone.
lol poroti
[You may win seats in Qld, but your expected to lose some there as well!]
Nope. No ALP seats lost in Qld. I notice Tony is actually going to Herbert tomorrow. Safe LNP seat? Ha ha.
p
Zed is not a pretty person.
[ruawake
Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:11 pm | PERMALINK
Yes, I reckon Bandt is going to win…
How?]
I think current polling which shows him likely to lose has to be viewed through the likely paradigm of an impending massive ALP defeat, a two to three term defeat. Progressive voters will then decide whether it is better to have a schmuck part of a rump of an ALP, or a Green who will have some sway (as the LNP will unlikely get control of the Senate).
In addition, I suspect there are many Liberal voters who will preference Bandt irrespective of any instructions to the contrary.
@Ruawake
Did Tony visit any other seat than safe seats?
[“Everyone in the tech industry is passing around this video of Kevin Spacey talking about about how Netflix (and other tech companies) will blow up the traditional TV industry”.]
[In an edited version of Spacey’s speech below, he touches on how Netflix, which has produced a handful of excellent original series this year, has the potential to disrupt the traditional cable and network TV model of forcing content creators to make a pilot before accepting a show.]
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/everyone-in-the-tech-and-tv-industries-is-passing-around-this-speech-by-kevin-spacey-2013-8
Mod Lib, you certainly won’t get Wakefield and probably not Eden-Monaro. A couple of others are doubtful as well.
It seems to me both parties have an idiot in charge. However, in most cases Labor does seem to have the better policies (Gonski, NBN, ETS vs PPL, Direct Action). It this seems logical to go with the better policies.
Something to consider though. Sometimes a Government wins an election they really should have lost were it not for an even worse opposition. If the opposition can get their act together they normally win the next election in a landslide (recent elections in NSW, QLD and Howard and Hawke’s first victories).
Mod lib
On election night or sunday i will be waiting to see what your excuse will be ,
on why the coalition did not win government ?
why the opinion polls got it wrong?
Rolf Harris was born in Bassenden, WA
Allan Moyes, et al
Thanks also for your helpful directions to the calculator.
And you’re right, it only goes to 2012.
I’m very happy with davidwh’s formula.
(and he’s a great grandparent)
Well, here is one candidate who is not in it for the superannuantion:
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/terminally-ill-man-wants-senate-seat/story-e6frfku9-1226707801037
[Oakeshott Country
Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:19 pm | PERMALINK
Rolf Harris was born in Bassenden, WA]
But he lived his formative years in New Zealand.
That makes him a kiwi. For shame.
I don’t see how Morgan can say swing to LNP continues when the ALP 4% primary went to “Independents/ Others” and 1% down for primary for LNP went to the “Greens”.
PUP has 4% nationally (6% in QLD), and Katter on 1%.