Newspoll today brings a poll from a sample of 800 respondents from the five most marginal Labor electorates in Sydney Greenway (0.9%), Lindsay (1.1%), Banks (1.5%), Reid (2.7%) and Parramatta (4.4%) which suggests the whole lot will be swept away, and perhaps others besides. Labor’s collective two-party preferred vote across the five seats is put at 43%, which compares with 52.1% at the 2010 election. The primary vote has Labor down from 43.2% to 34%, the Liberals up from 42.8% to 52%, the Greens down from 7.9% to 7% and others up from 6.1% to 7%. On two party preferred, Labor is down from 52.1% to 43%. Tony Abbott is also given better personal ratings (47% approval and 46% disapproval) than Kevin Rudd (37% and 55%), and leads 46-40 as preferred prime minister. The margin of error for the poll is about 3.5%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Kevin Bonham observes in comments: These five were all surveyed by Galaxy which averaged 48:52 in the same electorates, via robopolling, with a much larger sample size, last week. It’s not likely voting intention has moved anything like five points in a week. So either someone has a house effect or someone (most likely Newspoll) has an inaccurate sample.
UPDATE 2 (Galaxy Adelaide poll): The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.
UPDATE 3 (Morgan poll): Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% others component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll.
1,483 comments on “Newspoll: 9% swing in Sydney marginals”
Yes I understand the difference between effect and affect -but the English language is stupid 😛
Stephen Long @StephenLongABC 13m
Press Gallery got it wrong. Treasury/finance media release does not mean Rudd was wrong on Coalition costings. (Link) http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2013/s3837863.htm …
Andrew Leigh slaughtering Pyne with facts.
Pyne is just useless and Leigh is slicing him wide open.
Andrew Leigh is a shocker…
Oh dear it’s not a fair fight, a professor of economics versus a…spud. Leigh carving him up.
Beware Mod Lib! The beginning is the end!
Abbott is splashing cash like there’s no tomorrow, and keeping the CO2 compo to boot.
This means he’ll fail to balance the budget – or create a lot of enemies when he backflips.
I think it’s fair to say there’s one upside for the left: no one will put punters off voting LNP quicker or for longer than one Tony Abbott.
Of course the press gallery got it wrong with Rudd’s comments on Coalition costings.
But Mod Lib wants to blame Rudd.
Fix the media, as it is, politics SUX!
Euro money magazine… Where is Wally swan now…
Why because he is thrashing your guy :devil:
Pyne unhinging, about to explode with his red face.
Andrew Leigh is very good – labor’s next treasurer.
fiona do you understand Mr Abbott and Mr Hockey and Mr Robb are collectively embarking on a massive expansion of the welfare sector yet we do not know how much it will cost?
Dobell, Robertson, Kingsford-Smith, Page and Eden-Monaro
53-47 to Coalition.
Primary: Coalition 48, ALP 36
This is a 2PP swing to the Coalition of 6.9 per cent.
[I guess it is me and the electorate ]
No, only you and those in the electorate stupid enough to vote for the Coalition.
Pyne has nothing to offer anymore he really should make way for someone else.
Lol combining those seats makes even less sense than the W.Sydney poll lol
Poor Andrew Leigh… It’s lonely in the saddle since the horse died…
Very very good Andrew Leigh – totally nailed the poodle.
Why would you chuck Kingsford Smith in with those seats?
Hockey backflips surplus:
How many broken promises…?
Now we discuss labor corruption in NSW…
is that it James J??
They are the remaining NSW marginals after excluding W Sydney so they do have some use. All the same I find these aggregated marginal polls frustrating when they include a mix of live seats and writeoffs.
I 100% agree, and they still come at 53-47!
More sem sem
Do I recall correctly that this is the second time Dobell has been included in one of these grouped polls? Convenient much when we all know who has been in that seat?
[Doesn’t matter how you see it, it matters how the public see it.]
Actually, that statement is spot on.
Yes, there was a previous Robertson and Dobell combined poll.
I hope it aint a 6.9% swing at the election, then my predictions will be way off!
That would give 104 to 43 with 3 indies.
So that’s it Mr Paine after all Rudd rooting you have done …
Well here is an admission.
He knows costings are costing.
“@latikambourke: OL Tony Abbott believes this is a ‘very close election’ and the polls will tighten. #AusVotes”