Newspoll: 9% swing in Sydney marginals

An 800-sample Newspoll survey supports an impression that Sydney alone stands to put victory beyond Labor’s reach.

Newspoll today brings a poll from a sample of 800 respondents from the five most marginal Labor electorates in Sydney – Greenway (0.9%), Lindsay (1.1%), Banks (1.5%), Reid (2.7%) and Parramatta (4.4%) – which suggests the whole lot will be swept away, and perhaps others besides. Labor’s collective two-party preferred vote across the five seats is put at 43%, which compares with 52.1% at the 2010 election. The primary vote has Labor down from 43.2% to 34%, the Liberals up from 42.8% to 52%, the Greens down from 7.9% to 7% and “others” up from 6.1% to 7%. On two party preferred, Labor is down from 52.1% to 43%. Tony Abbott is also given better personal ratings (47% approval and 46% disapproval) than Kevin Rudd (37% and 55%), and leads 46-40 as preferred prime minister. The margin of error for the poll is about 3.5%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham observes in comments: “These five were all surveyed by Galaxy which averaged 48:52 in the same electorates, via robopolling, with a much larger sample size, last week. It’s not likely voting intention has moved anything like five points in a week. So either someone has a house effect or someone (most likely Newspoll) has an inaccurate sample.”

UPDATE 2 (Galaxy Adelaide poll): The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan poll): Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,483 comments on “Newspoll: 9% swing in Sydney marginals”

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  1. [1390


    Apparently it was an election commitment. Cit of Perth are opposed precisely because the spaces are true pedestrian areas.]

    Inner Perth has been made relatively pedestrian-friendly by the Hay and Murray malls, and their linking through the arcades, and the construction of a few bits of open space and sidewalk dining. You’d think that anything that disrupted pedestrians would harm the whole inner-city retailing/ daytime hospitality setting. That would be a very negative thing, as the rest of the city has little to offer.

    I’m sure the City of Perth would reject it, purely on the grounds that the little bit of social amenity that now exists would be disrupted. I don’t get to go the City very often, but generally think it’s a relatively amiable, relaxed place – good for the city workforce.

  2. shellbell

    [Swans aren’t going to trouble Cats and Hawks without Goodes]

    With Buddy out and Tippett back next week, I wouldn’t be too sure.

  3. briefly:

    I used to work in the CBD when I lived in Perth. I couldn’t imagine trains down the Hay St mall. It would be awfully disruptive.

  4. Swans have been decimated by injury this year. Roberts Thompson, Shaw, Johnson, Jetta and Goodes have been out most of the year. Added to them tonight, were Hannerbury and Tippett. Considering this, we’ve had a very good year so far, and tonight was an outstanding effort from the D team.

    The coach is pretty good, the Swans may have a surprise or two left in them. But I agree, they need Goodes if they are to get any further than a semi this year.

  5. @New2This/1417

    There lot of things Abbott promised that we won’t get either….

    But I don’t see you bitching about it.

  6. My prediction for the ALP launch:

    1. Rudd will promise to remove Medicare to save money
    2. Rudd will propose an invasion of Indonesia to stop the boats
    3. Rudd will propose a weight tax (higher for heavy stuff like coal or gold, less for weightless stuff like carbon).

    you know it makes sense

  7. I see Rudd is still getting hammered over the Treasury/Finance/PBO smackdown he got yesterday!*

    *well everywhere but the alternative universe of PB Denialand

  8. Looks like the Civil Service took their time, but well and truly got their revenge on Rudd!

    Nailed him good just before the election :devil:

  9. Mod Lib

    It’s pretty easy to get hammered, mainstream media have the hammer and they can belt whoever they like.

    Let’s fix the media, better for democracy and good government.

  10. [1406

    Workers will need protection… WTF Thomas Paine what about the thousands of jobs lost under labor…]

    The troubling thing about the next Tory Government is their intention to completely blow the budget. This will see the fiscal position go to pieces. Since they are unwilling to make credible promises on the deficit, we should expect to see a bit of capital flight take hold, which will have the
    effect of pushing up market interest rates even as the dollar falls. The resulting inflation will knock real wages around just as interest rates start to push up and banks tighten their lending. The result will be a re-run of the Fraser years – deteriorating fiscal outcomes, climbing unemployment, rising inflation, declining growth and collapsing investment. Then they will do the predictable Tory thing, and try to cut spending, leading to the first real full blooded recession in a generation.

    We have so much to look forward to under the incoming regime.

  11. @Mod Lib/1426

    Media screw up you mean.
    “So Labor got a bunch of policies (presumably ones they thought the Libs might use) costed by the PBO and matched them as best they could with the policies released by Hockey.”

  12. [1416


    I used to work in the CBD when I lived in Perth. I couldn’t imagine trains down the Hay St mall. It would be awfully disruptive.]

    Then we are agreed! Stop the Trams!!

  13. [Is that the anger phase I see brewing in TP?

    by Carey Moore on Aug 30, 2013 at 10:28 pm]

    Not angry at all.

    There will be precious little affect on me whoever wins the election, I’m safe in all cases.

    But am interested if the public learn that there are times it makes a difference who your government is. I cant blame them for voting Abbott at the moment since there is a very big effort there to muddy the waters.

    The issue that arises for after the election goes right back to the thinking of the power brokers that thought tossing out a popularly elected first term PM was nothing that important, and it wouldn’t have any affect on the public. This after more than a decade in opposition. It was this action that poisoned the Labor Well….yet again. Not to mention a double poisoning of the well in a sustained over the top personal attack on the former popularly elected PM.

    One would hope the voting public will learn a lesson that it matters who they vote in and that they should look behind headlines a bit more. But you just know they wont. They will vote Abbott out next time because he will make a pig breakfast of everything.

  14. so when do we get to find out how much the biggest expansion of the welfare state is going to cost us the taxpayers? i mean this is serious this lip smaking f*** could be PM soon.

  15. @Mod Lib/1437

    Blaming ALP for everything.

    @the spectator/1438

    That’s why the excuse that at next election will be a mandate to increase GST.

  16. [zoidlord
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 10:54 pm | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/1437

    Blaming ALP for everything.]

    I blame the ALP for what they do.

    I guess it is me and the electorate against the hoi poloi of PB!

  17. [Mr Paine,

    Do you understand the difference between a presidential and a Westminster system?

    by fiona on Aug 30, 2013 at 10:54 pm]

    Doesn’t matter how you see it, it matters how the public see it.

  18. Rest of the second last round of League:

    – Panthers
    – Manly
    – Cows

    Where’s FARQ? He reckoned I always back losing footy teams 😯

    Yeah so far 4 wins out of 4 since he made the ill informed comment 😛

  19. HI Fiona

    How are you, yes I think I would be careful if I was you, think Sir Robert would be prowling around wailing “what has become of my Liberal Party”
    Hope all is well with you 🙂

  20. Poor old Andrew Leigh!

    The real issue of this election, and the last 6 years, is the degree of long-term damage to the ALP brand, and the ALP talent by Rudd and his populist backflipping, Gillard and her burning ambition and the ALP caucus which sold it soul long ago.

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