Newspoll: 9% swing in Sydney marginals

An 800-sample Newspoll survey supports an impression that Sydney alone stands to put victory beyond Labor’s reach.

Newspoll today brings a poll from a sample of 800 respondents from the five most marginal Labor electorates in Sydney – Greenway (0.9%), Lindsay (1.1%), Banks (1.5%), Reid (2.7%) and Parramatta (4.4%) – which suggests the whole lot will be swept away, and perhaps others besides. Labor’s collective two-party preferred vote across the five seats is put at 43%, which compares with 52.1% at the 2010 election. The primary vote has Labor down from 43.2% to 34%, the Liberals up from 42.8% to 52%, the Greens down from 7.9% to 7% and “others” up from 6.1% to 7%. On two party preferred, Labor is down from 52.1% to 43%. Tony Abbott is also given better personal ratings (47% approval and 46% disapproval) than Kevin Rudd (37% and 55%), and leads 46-40 as preferred prime minister. The margin of error for the poll is about 3.5%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: Kevin Bonham observes in comments: “These five were all surveyed by Galaxy which averaged 48:52 in the same electorates, via robopolling, with a much larger sample size, last week. It’s not likely voting intention has moved anything like five points in a week. So either someone has a house effect or someone (most likely Newspoll) has an inaccurate sample.”

UPDATE 2 (Galaxy Adelaide poll): The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan poll): Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,483 comments on “Newspoll: 9% swing in Sydney marginals”

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  6. [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits 18m
    It’s true that life will be harsher for most under an IPA govt but (currently) illicit drugs & migrant labour will be more affordable.]

    😆

    An IPA government. So apt.

  7. [An IPA government. So apt.]

    Well the ideas have gotta come from somewhere. LOL!

    And people though 2020 was a dud. You just wait.

  8. [Lefty e
    Some right winger (forget who) made an astute observation here today: Abbott is offering nothing whatsoever for those conservatives who actually want to see public spending reined in.]

    Rabbott has a mire of his own making.

    Should he win government, I doubt he will remain leader for the full term.

  10. Diog
    [Napoleon came back from Elba. Rudd would need to go to St Helena.]
    True but “Able was I ere I saw St Helens” is not a palindrome so I’m sticking with Elba.

  12. Dee
    [I doubt he (Abbott) will remain leader for the full term]
    Look forward to calling you on that on PB in 2016. He’ll quit as PM around 2018 in my opinion at the age of 60 or so.

  13. [And people though 2020 was a dud. You just wait.]

    Hell yeah. All those years of the IPA worming its way into our media to shamelessly spruik for the coalition.

    I can just see all the associated rent seekers and spivs lining up for payment for services rendered after the election.

  16. ruawake@1228

    Apparently Newspoll are looking at their methodology because their results do not tally with L-NP or ALP polling.

    They hope to recalibrate before the final pre-election poll if they find a reason.

    Does this “apparently” have any link, specific source or form of evidence attached to it?

    I’ll not be believing it if not.

  17. A Chub Witham advert!

    The good voters of O’Connor could raise the sex appeal in federal parliament considerably by electing him as their member.

    #thinklikeaLiberalvoter

  19. [Does anyone have a link to Rudds presser…]

    It was a shocker.. he was sweating… losing his temper at the media… ranting about the Coalition being fraudlent and about a Chicken Sandwich or a Hair Dryer away from blowing his top.

    The Real Rudd revealed

  20. @Sean/1369

    Well if the media were saying something that Rudd didn’t, not entirely his fault is it?

    I watched the presser, they were saying stuff that neither Treasury or Rudd said.

  21. Like this tweet:
    [
    Mark ‏@markjs1 8m

    .@olive_new I was accused by Chris Kenny of being a “Lefty Intellectual” …he thought that was an insult …Lol!! #auspol #ausvotes
    ]

  26. The corresponding weekend in the 2010 election:

    (A) Nielsen did a Friday night poll;
    (B) Newspoll did 17 marginals on Saturday;
    (C) Galaxy did 4000 marginal seat voters on Sunday.

  28. Family First candidate for Tasmanian Senate Peter Madden believes Putin’s gay laws are an excellent idea. Been looking into Madden, very nasty piece of work.

  33. [1352
    confessions

    briefly:

    What do you think about the Emperor’s plans to put light rail in the Hay and Murray St malls?]

    I have missed that, confessions. (Maybe while I was o/s). It sounds wrong to me, first up. They have become public pedestrian places….but it would depend where/how the rail will be linked.

  38. [
    LNP Hiding the CUTS ‏@geeksrulz 4h

    Went to the bottleshop and the cashier wanted me to pay?? Told him costings is overrated and customers are bored by them. #ausvotes
    ]

  39. Family First on climate change:

    [Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant, it is plant food. The more crops can get of it the better they grow.]

  41. [ Mike Carlton ‏@MikeCarlton01 5h

    @BernardKeane Am I right in thinking that the sainted Sir Robert Menzies never once delivered a budget surplus from 1949 to 1966 ?]

    The Whitlam government was the only one that left office with a net government surplus.

  42. Tempted to say that Australians will get what they deserve if they vote in Abbott Coalition. However it is a bit hard when they have been flood with a massive amount of targeted anti Labor misinformation, and Abbott marketing.

    Labor needed to win back the disaffected but the flood of misleading noise simply drowns any message out. Newscrap media has gone some way in corrupting the democratic process for their own financial ends.
    So will Abbott attack the future fund for his money?

    Will Australians learn that it does make a difference who you choose? It didn’t when Howard took over as the economy boomed regardless of poor policy. Though Howard’s wasted $300bn would be useful now. But it will matter when economies are struggling badly and a govt takes an irresponsible economic path.

    Times are going to be tough, workers will need protection, Abbott will be doing all he can to remove all protection, and if successful welcome in the working poor.

    Will Australian’s learn that it does matter? Probably not.

  49. Some people were asking where she was. Well, she’s here now.

    [SHE’S been a notable absentee from the campaign trail but in a Father’s Day gift, Tony Abbott’s eldest daughter is coming home.

    Louise Abbott, 24, is due to fly in from Switzerland on Sunday and will be her father’s strongest behind the scenes supporter.

    An embassy staffer in Switzerland, Ms Abbott was constantly by her father’s side during the 2010 campaign but is cautious about being involved in political events as she forges a diplomatic career. ]

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