Newspoll today brings a poll from a sample of 800 respondents from the five most marginal Labor electorates in Sydney – Greenway (0.9%), Lindsay (1.1%), Banks (1.5%), Reid (2.7%) and Parramatta (4.4%) – which suggests the whole lot will be swept away, and perhaps others besides. Labor’s collective two-party preferred vote across the five seats is put at 43%, which compares with 52.1% at the 2010 election. The primary vote has Labor down from 43.2% to 34%, the Liberals up from 42.8% to 52%, the Greens down from 7.9% to 7% and “others” up from 6.1% to 7%. On two party preferred, Labor is down from 52.1% to 43%. Tony Abbott is also given better personal ratings (47% approval and 46% disapproval) than Kevin Rudd (37% and 55%), and leads 46-40 as preferred prime minister. The margin of error for the poll is about 3.5%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Kevin Bonham observes in comments: “These five were all surveyed by Galaxy which averaged 48:52 in the same electorates, via robopolling, with a much larger sample size, last week. It’s not likely voting intention has moved anything like five points in a week. So either someone has a house effect or someone (most likely Newspoll) has an inaccurate sample.”
UPDATE 2 (Galaxy Adelaide poll): The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.
UPDATE 3 (Morgan poll): Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll.
Indeed Matt – no real signs of the foretold decline in the GRNs vote, except possibly in QLD (although WTF is really happening up there Im not sure from the poll evidence).
That said, I think Rudd inadvertantly boosted the GRNs to some degree with the PNG business.
dave
The credit agencies would have to be the most unaccountable companies in history.
Spectacular incompetence just increases their profit margins.
Dio
[It’s even worse than that. No-one is talking about who will be affected by the Liberal cuts. I can’t name one. It’s all about the costings, an argument which Labor seems to be managing to lose despite sort of being in the right.]
True. Labor shoudl ask questions like: will they cut schools or health or pensions, not debate the dollars and cents.
Its the vibe of the thing.
Diogenes
[You’re welcome to take him off my hands.
His contrary nature is evidently karma paying me back.]
No thanks to 1. He’s all yours.
2. I’m akarmic, avoiding responsibility is your responsibility.
Yep: back to the CUTS for the final week.
Costings schmostings. The whole thing has been a farce since Costello set it up to trap oppositions. The LNP knows its true purpose, and hence have been dodging it like the plague since they lost govt; muttering curses about Costello under their breath.
They got the best of this round though, albeit with a bit of help from some extraordinarily low IQ gotcha journalism. Move on to greener pastures.
davidwh
[
While Costello was treasurer Australia had AAA from 2 of the 3 agencies.]
So you be a Meatloafian then ? 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5hWWe-ts2s
Diogenes@1302
Agreed. It goes back to protection they have under US law which were supposed to be transition arrangements, which they then managed to make permanent while taking the benefits of what they were supposedly ‘giving up’.
The same situation applies to to medical issuers I believe in the US.
They and their special interests are beyond the reach of the law, even though their major involvement in the GFC.
So I guess the last big question of this campaign is, what do Rudd/Labor have up their sleves for Sunday’s launch? Any thoughts on what they may do to stir things up and grab attention going in to the last week?
Hi kezza, lefty…
[Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 8:38 pm | PERMALINK
shellbell
Buddy is farked. Head high bump well after the ball had gone.]
You always get an outbreak of leniency around finals time especially if you are a swan eg Dunkley in 1996 and Bazza in 2005
Poroti yes but just correcting the record.
matt31
I would suggest: No big announcements. No big new grand schemes. Just a dazzling reiteration of the Government’s policy triumphs over the past six years.
And in particular, make the NBN the centrepiece. Preferably have some mind-boggling use of the NBN actually on display at the launch – something that would capture the imagination of the audience.
Go very hard on NBN. Go very hard on how the L-NP will wreck it, and seriously compromise an absolutely fundamental piece of national infrastructure – critical to the nation’s future.
This resonates big time with young people – and many other people as well.
All the commentators seem to think Buddy is in trouble too. I agree. The AFL judiciary is much tougher on head high contact now than in 2005.
The talk about Rudd being a changed person when he resumed as PM did not endure.
[So I guess the last big question of this campaign is, what do Rudd/Labor have up their sleves for Sunday’s launch? Any thoughts on what they may do to stir things up and grab attention going in to the last week?]
Been thinking the same myself!
Though, I find it hard to think anything could be said or done to alter the likely outcome.
As some have noted previously. Rudd could find a cure for cancer and it would be reported in the negative.
The media mongrel has spoken!
[Any thoughts on what they may do to stir things up and grab attention going in to the last week?]
Well, he’s tried the earwax eating in the past so maybe a good nose-pick this time from Rudd will stir things up. I mean, what else has he got left? Hurricane Sandy isn’t coming to to Oz any time soon
It’s like a wake in here… All standing around the coffin contemplating the corpse…
Yes, and Buddy is, I think, sitting on a few accumuated points.
dee
I think Rudd did the cure for cancer last week, just before he invented teleporting.
briefly:
You make some very good points.
Of course Labor’s problems go beyond leadership, which were always a fig leaf for those deeper issues IMO.
Buddy
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=v1ZI4LOxZg4&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dv1ZI4LOxZg4
Come back Julia we miss you…
Alias
I think those of us who use the internet. Lot overestimate the NBN as an election issue. The people it will appeal to most are already voting Labor or Green. The rollout has been too slow for most people to experience any benefit from it. This is one time stacking a Qango with mates is going to harm Labor badly. I agree the NBN is important, and necessary, but implementation and selling have been poor. At the current rate of progress it would take almost 20 years to complete. A good idea that will generate little credit.
As for Rudd curing cancer, won’t that just cause people to stop paying attention to their diet and using sun screen? It would increase smoking rates too. Very shortsighted.
[Paul Papalia @papsMLA 11m
The anger amongst Principals and teachers in electorate of Warnbro over Barnett’s education cuts and duplicity is palpable. #wapol #auspol]
The Emperor has just backed down on school fees for 457 visa holders.
Oh, gotta go.
Check ya later.
Hark hark . The Scarabaeoidea are on the march.
Rudd couldn’t cure the cancer that is NSW Labor what chance has got of curing any other form of cancer….
[1312
alias
matt31
I would suggest: No big announcements. No big new grand schemes. Just a dazzling reiteration of the Government’s policy triumphs over the past six years.
And in particular, make the NBN the centrepiece. Preferably have some mind-boggling use of the NBN actually on display at the launch – something that would capture the imagination of the audience.
Go very hard on NBN. Go very hard on how the L-NP will wreck it, and seriously compromise an absolutely fundamental piece of national infrastructure – critical to the nation’s future.
This resonates big time with young people – and many other people as well.]
Marketing the NBN is impeded by a problem familiar to anyone that has to market services – service attributes are intrinsically intangible and only available when they are being experienced by users. Even though the LNP’s alternative is believed to be inferior – mainly because of the very tangible and visibly corroding copper on which it will rely – most consumers will have trouble matching up a personal need with a still-imaginary service.
The NBN falls into the category of being a solution to a problem that consumers probably don’t know they have. The result is it sounds good, but won’t attract a lot of buyers until it becomes present, accessible and functionally relevant. I doubt that it’s going to shift votes in the suburbs where the election is going to be decided.
Up to your usual standard of reply kezza2, being insulting & believing in your own BS!
Not going to waste my breath on you, can’t reason with someone that’s from the lunatic left & has a pathological hatred of men!
Ps We survived the GFC purely because of the foundation left by Howard/Costello government!
It was typical deceitfulness of Rudd/Swan to claim credit for it
Up to your usual standard of reply kezza2, being insulting & believing in your own BS!
Not going to waste my breath on you, can’t reason with someone that’s from the lunatic left & has a pathological hatred of men!
Ps We survived the GFC purely because of the foundation left by Howard/Costello government!
It was typical deceitfulness of Rudd/Swan to claim credit for it
Up to your usual standard of reply kezza2, being insulting & believing in your own BS!
Not going to waste my breath on you, can’t reason with someone that’s from the lunatic left & has a pathological hatred of men!
Ps We survived the GFC purely because of the foundation left by Howard/Costello government!
It was typical deceitfulness of Rudd/Swan to claim credit for it
Up to your usual standard of reply kezza2, being insulting & believing in your own BS!
Not going to waste my breath on you, can’t reason with someone that’s from the lunatic left & has a pathological hatred of men!
Ps We survived the GFC purely because of the foundation left by Howard/Costello government!
It was typical deceitfulness of Rudd/Swan to claim credit for it
Perhaps Rudd could announce that he and his front bench will go into self-imposed exile on Elba for the next 30 years if Labor wins. Now that’d tip the scales. Whatever it takes I say.
New2This@1327
Heh! Good one.
Of course, Rudd was never going to “cure” NSW Labor. Not after they supported his reinstatement. The whole “federal intervention” thing is a crock that most people saw though immediately.
Wesley
You’re falling asleep and your head keeps hitting the keyboard.
[Gerry Harvey has criticised the ‘‘hype’’ around online sales, saying there was no evidence people were buying more of certain white goods and electronics over the internet.
Read more: http://www.watoday.com.au/business/retail/gerry-harvey-slams-big-ticket-online-sales-20130830-2svjd.html#ixzz2dRzWfBhD ]
Hype? Honestly, Gerry continues to be serial whinger. What a sook!
[ You’re falling asleep and your head keeps hitting the keyboard.]
Either that or his batteries need replacing. 😆
Rudd was a mickeys whisker from blowing his top today.
I was hoping the baby would keep crying at his presser.. it would have been just the think to put him over the edge.
“CAN YOU SHUT THAT F’ING BABY UP!!!!”
[ Hype? Honestly, Gerry continues to be serial whinger. What a sook! ]
Have any of you been into a Harvey Norman store recently?
Overpriced rubbish! I’m surprised they are still in business.
Lol just noticed Mick77, no not quite!
Stupid iphone not respond.
Player One:
I can’t remember the last time I went into a Harvey Norman shop.
[1320
confessions
briefly:
Of course Labor’s problems go beyond leadership, which were always a fig leaf for those deeper issues IMO.]
It’s going to be very interesting to see if the LNP do eventually pick up the ball on some of the big issues that are before us – the revenue base, infrastructure spending, education policy and productivity performance…and, it has to happen, the environment and climate change too.
Howard was a nasty, ruthless reactionary ideologue. I wonder if Abbott has some other dimensions that we have yet to see. I sure hope so.
confessions@1341
I go in periodically because there is one near where I work. Basically, I go in to be astounded at their pricing. It gives me a good chuckle every time.
And there is never anyone except bored-looking staff (and me!) in there.
[ “CAN YOU SHUT THAT F’ING BABY UP!!!!” ]
I was thinking the same about you, ST.
I think God was sending Rudd a message today. All those signs that his campaign is falling apart.
Julia Gillard to become honorary professor at Adelaide University
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-30/gillard-to-receive-honorary-professorship/4926038
[ I think God was sending Rudd a message today. All those signs that his campaign is falling apart. ]
I’ll bet even God has to make an appointment to see St Kevin!
Will Rudd go to the G20… How would you guys and gals feel about it…
Mick
[Perhaps Rudd could announce that he and his front bench will go into self-imposed exile on Elba for the next 30 years if Labor wins. ]
Napoleon came back from Elba. Rudd would need to go to St Helena.
Some right winger (forget who) made an astute observation here today: Abbott is offering nothing whatsoever for those conservatives who actually want to see public spending reined in.
Thats the key really: its all about ideological redirection of funds under Abbott. This will involve cuts to a lot of vulnerable people, so the ALP must campaign on that – but really, what we’re looking at here is a socially conservative spendathon.