Newspoll today brings a poll from a sample of 800 respondents from the five most marginal Labor electorates in Sydney – Greenway (0.9%), Lindsay (1.1%), Banks (1.5%), Reid (2.7%) and Parramatta (4.4%) – which suggests the whole lot will be swept away, and perhaps others besides. Labor’s collective two-party preferred vote across the five seats is put at 43%, which compares with 52.1% at the 2010 election. The primary vote has Labor down from 43.2% to 34%, the Liberals up from 42.8% to 52%, the Greens down from 7.9% to 7% and “others” up from 6.1% to 7%. On two party preferred, Labor is down from 52.1% to 43%. Tony Abbott is also given better personal ratings (47% approval and 46% disapproval) than Kevin Rudd (37% and 55%), and leads 46-40 as preferred prime minister. The margin of error for the poll is about 3.5%. Full tables from GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Kevin Bonham observes in comments: “These five were all surveyed by Galaxy which averaged 48:52 in the same electorates, via robopolling, with a much larger sample size, last week. It’s not likely voting intention has moved anything like five points in a week. So either someone has a house effect or someone (most likely Newspoll) has an inaccurate sample.”
UPDATE 2 (Galaxy Adelaide poll): The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.
UPDATE 3 (Morgan poll): Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll.
Compact Crank
Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:41 pm | Permalink
AA @1070
Jokeshot and Whinger went with the ALP out of self preservation and relevance deprivation syndrome. They knew the polling was trending to the Coalition and that a Coalition Government was likely to go to an early poll in order to consolidate.
——————————————————-
planet earth calling CC…are you there?
Edward StJohn
The former State President of the Liberal Party has been referred to the DPP to face criminal charges, miss that one did you?
mexicanbeemer
[It was nasal gazing for i would image the ALP will poll more than 30]
An interesting mental image 🙂
[ They knew the polling was trending to the Coalition and that a Coalition Government was likely to go to an early poll in order to consolidate.]
So you would have rather :monkey: and co had had the opportunity to manipulate us into another election straight away? What part of “respecting the election result” dont you get CC??
Ahhhh….your more the guided democracy type of whinging coward are you??
Anyone posted this: Bronwyn Bishop says Gonski reforms will ‘dumb down’ schools
Ah the relativism of the party of icac love it!!!!
Unfortunately for the party of icac as RJL Hawke said the Australian people always get it right at elections and they can tell that you smell and need to be flushed.
[planet earth calling CC…are you there?]
Sounds unlikely.
30% ALP primary ? Give me an f ‘ing break – I don’t care how big an LNP hack you are… it ain’t happening
And BW’s a Kiwi.
Just thought you should all know that, considering his gross defamation of all things Harris.
poroti
Ah, Pamela Stephenson, she’s okay if she’s Australian, but a whole lotta hoopla is she’s an NZer.
Next you’ll be claiming her hubby, whathishame, as your own.
God, leaches, the lot of you.
Funny that you didn’t actually give the personal ratings and we have to use the link, because Abbott has moved ahead overall. I would have thought that that was big news considering that Labor pinned their hopes on Rudd’s popularity and firmly believed that Abbott was unelectable.
AA @7:35pm – with ‘free’ advertising on the front page of 70% of Australia’s newspapers day in day out, why do the Libs need donations? Of course the Murdoch ‘advertising’ is not free. News Corp will ask for payment once their guys are in power.
Here’s a list of publications and companies to avoid: http://foxnewsboycott.com/resources/news-corp-properties/
Fair call, Kezza2, you can have Quade Cooper then ….
kezza2
Her hubby is a loud and proud Big Yin. A credit to Scotland.
Helen William is looking after the majority of PB’ers not too many shocks at once.
helenk
Abbott should be ahead in the Morgan phone section of the poll, he was leading 57-43 in the last iteration of this crap.
muttleymcgee
And Russell Crowe and Joh 🙂
The 57/43 was a phone only poll.
davidwh
[
The 57/43 was a phone only poll.]
A phony poll ?
That too Poroti 🙂
Boerwar @ 1165
[Canberra is already being damaged by the resort of both Gillard and Rudd to the spuriously named ‘efficiency’ dividend. Everywhere you look you see ‘For Lease’ signs.]
When I was last there a few weeks ago, all you could see as far as the eye stretched were residential towers and massive housing complexes going up – in or near the CBD, Belconnen and Gunghalin particularly. That sort of building seems to have been going on for the last few years. I always wondered, who buys or rents these places? – especially at the prices being asked.
Perhaps a lot of developers will have their fingers burnt. Maybe I can buy a penthouse apartment for $100k! LOL.
I agree with you on the spurious nature of the “efficiency dividend” but that has been around for years. (I was a public servant in Canberra for 34 years). I never could see any real “efficiencies”! It was mostly smoke and mirrors and/or cutting back of services, often by laying off staff and then re-employing them as “consultants”.
My own job disappeared in such a fashion, only to be recreated after 5 minutes as a higher level position. Not that I cared by that time. I took the money and ran!
[The 57/43 was a phone only poll.]
It was then added to the multimode poll. Which is the point I made about the online polls favouring the ALP.
[30% ALP primary ? Give me an f ‘ing break – I don’t care how big an LNP hack you are… it ain’t happening]
READ and WEEP Labor Hack
Rudd the Dudd and Gillard the Dillard are finally getting their much deserved just desserts
101 Seats to the Coalition… I predicted it 2 weeks ago and I stick by it 🙂
GG
[A lot of people will be surprised you can’t vote the worst performer out of the Parliament each week. Everyone’s been programmed to think that Poliitics is like Big Brother.]
I’ve got a friend who is the mother of one of the guys on Big Brother.
She’s not enjoying the experience.
@Sean/1223
Even 5 seats selected by Newspoll had ALP primary at 34% and Kevin said that was dubious at best (referenced to Galaxy Poll).
Polls consistantly underestimate the Coalition Vote (QLD, WA, NSW, etc etc)
I’ve put this down to them only calling Landline phones and Labor voters being at home all day to answer them
Muttley
I only take folk who were born in Nar Nar Goon as genuine Australians.
😆
So you can take Quade for yourself.
Quade? what sort of a moniker is that? Sounds kiwi or
WA to me.
Apparently Newspoll are looking at their methodology because their results do not tally with L-NP or ALP polling.
They hope to recalibrate before the final pre-election poll if they find a reason.
[1202
ruawake
Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 7:43 pm | PERMALINK
Edward StJohn
The former State President of the Liberal Party has been referred to the DPP to face criminal charges, miss that one did you?]
Raise with a former national president actually charged.
How many voters were polled Australia wide?
RU 1202
I did miss that – who was referred to the DPP?
ST
“Rudd the Dudd and Gillard the Dillard are finally getting their much deserved just desserts
101 Seats to the Coalition… I predicted it 2 weeks ago and I stick by it :)”
The ALP has a Triple A Rating for the economy, never achieved by the LNP therefore it can be inferred that anything you touch will be sticky. Yuk!
Wash your hands!!!
k2
“Quade? what sort of a moniker is that? Sounds kiwi or
WA to me.”
Quade is a member of the Wallabies team, so how can he be a Kiwi?
O, wait ……
LMAO!!
[I did miss that – who was referred to the DPP?]
Michael Caltabiano.
Here’s the quote from Morgan’s last phone poll a fortnight ago, which helps to put today’s Morgan into perspective.
[Morgan Poll shows Two-Party preferred: L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43%. The primary vote is L-NP 52%, ALP 31%, Greens 9% and Independent/Others 8%. Of those surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.
This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights this week of August 12/13, 2013, with an Australia-wide cross section of 569 electors.
It needs to be remembered that telephone polls are biased towards the party that receives the best publicity. Tony Abbott’s ‘free kick’ from News Corp over the last few days accusing Rudd of cheating in the debate by using notes has no doubt boosted the Opposition Leader’s credibility although his comment yesterday on ‘sex appeal’ was crass, definitely irrelevant and unnecessary.]
Sean – don’t be a Pratt, it’s common sense – your side is going to win. But the ALP primary is not anywhere near 30%
OC
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/former-transport-boss-michael-caltabiano-matter-referred-to-director-of-public-prosecutions-20130823-2sfrb.html
Please any more seat predictions? I will post a call of the card soon.
Only Meguire Bob has come out with a Labor win prediction – 80 seats ALP – 67 LNP (whose members will be arrested after the re-elected Rudd Government Public Truth Assistance Enabling Act is passed)
[Rolf Harris grew up in Bassendean in Perth.]
WA isn’t part of Australia.
Ruawake – individual corruption happens, the party of icac is institutional and systemic.
@Edward StJohn/1238
The Economist gave Labor win.
Come on Zoidy – give us your seat number!
Harris has lived in the UK since 1952, I think it is safe to say he is a POM.
[Sean – don’t be a Pratt, it’s common sense – your side is going to win. But the ALP primary is not anywhere near 30%]
“Labor will not win less than 10 seats in Queenslands State Election!!”
“The Coalition will not get more than 60% of the TPP Vote in NSW!!”
Do these lines sound familar?
Don’t tell us Labor won’t get 30% primary or less… these are interesting times mate… very interesting times indeed
Our ABC really does seem to be Liberal Lite these days.
[Ruawake – individual corruption happens, the party of icac is institutional and systemic.]
Did you tell Nick Greiner?
Rolf Harris grew up?
@Edward StJohn/1242
Nope, would rather leave you guys in the dark.
Jism
After the election will you go away so we can be spared your facile rubbish?
Common sense isn’t your thing…