James J relates that Newspoll has published two further aggregated marginal seats polls to join the survey of five Sydney seats published yesterday. One targets the four most marginal Labor seats in New South Wales outside Sydney – Dobell (5.1%), Robertson (1.0%), Page (4.2%) and Eden-Monaro (4.2%) – plus, somewhat messily, the Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith (UPDATE: It gets messier – the Dobell and Robertson component of the poll was conducted, and published, two weeks ago, while the remainder is new polling from the other three seats). The collective result is 53-47 to the Liberals, suggesting a swing of 7%. The primary votes are 48% for the Coalition and 36% for Labor. The other targets the three most marginal Labor seats in Victoria, Corangamite (0.3%), Deakin (0.6%) and La Trobe (1.7%), showing the Liberals with a 53-47 lead and suggesting a swing of about 4%. The primary votes are 34% for Labor and 47% for the Coalition. Each of the three has a sample of 800 and a margin of error of about 3.5%. The Australian’s display of all three seats of results including personal ratings and voter commitment numbers can be viewed here.
Also today:
• Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll, which among other things have Tony Abbott ahead of Kevin Rudd as preferred prime minister.
• JWS Research has some scattered looking automated phone poll results from various Labor seats which include one piece of good news for Labor – a 57.2-42.8 lead for Kevin Rudd in Griffith, for a swing against Labor of a little over 1% – together with a rather greater amount of bad news: Wayne Swan trailing 53.8-46.2 in Lilley (a 7% swing), Chris Bowen trailing 53.1-46.9 in McMahon (11%), Rob Mitchell trailing 54.7-45.3 in his seemingly safe Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen (14%), and Labor hanging on to a 50.6-49.4 lead in Bendigo (9%), to be vacated by the retirement of Steve Gibbons.
• The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.
UPDATE: Galaxy has a further two electorate-level automated poll results, showing the Liberal National Party well ahead in its Queensland marginals of Herbert (55-45) and Dawson (57-43).
Can someone tell me why the guardian employed a conservative hack like leonore taylor
[I am the first to admit that I’m a bit testy on occasions. I get annoyed with this ongoing Gillard/Rudd/Gillard/Rudd crap.]
Many of us also share this view, but we manage not to snipe at people whenever they offer their viewpoints about the matter.
Is it true that pollster cannot call voters on the do not call register
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/burqa-confronting-says-tony-abbott-as-he-defends-candidate-ray-king-20130831-2sx8l.html
Well there goes the Muslim vote for Abbott!
[My understanding is that such a change in voting for leadership requires the approval of national conference which will not meet until 2014?]
That is what Psephos said.
He also said the proposed change was just for political expediency and would never see the light of day after the election.
K17
That is an interesting question. I am on the do not call register.
lefty e @ 990
I have Rudd’s HTV card in front of me and he has 10 opponents – that is, 11 candidates in all.
He will go to preferences with that number of candidates, but he will win.
FWIW, I agree with most of what you are posting.
[Is it true that pollster cannot call voters on the do not call register]
I don’t believe that is true, no.
Mari
[re self funded retirees, I am one and am amazed at what you say. You are going to be happy helping fund Abbott’s PPL etc? Just think please]
The cost is very small based on reasonable assumptions. The irony is that income for SFRs has been far harder hit by reduced interest rates on fixed interest investments. Can we blame/thank Rudd/Gillard/Labor/Swan for that or is that an act of God from world economic conditions and not from their stuff-ups. Actually it’s a bit of both and there are two sides to interest rate reductions and it’s also important to consider the conditions that have generated them. The impact of PPL is a second or third order difference on SFR’s income, and again, even in isolation it’s small.
Been out and about doing my first political campaigning for 30 years; in my Labor Volunteer T-shirt. Rational is easy; if we are going to have the “recession we deserve” which I am sure the Liberals are incompetent enough to create, I at least want to be able to say I did my best to stop it.
My reasons for now believing in the Labor party are to do with Keating transforming our economy, for Labor in general supporting education and schemes that bring the benefits and wealth to all. I support the carbon tax, I support the National disability insurance scheme, I think a solid Keynesian response to the GFC was the right thing to do (we would not have got it under the Liberals) and I support the broadband network.
A strong economy benefits the middle class, you have a job, you can earn. Spreading the wealth benefits us all, you can walk anywhere without the risk of being mugged. After today effort I would like to coin a new phrase “the middle class whine”. I’m pretty dam sure Abbotts desire to rob from the poor to give to the rich is not the way to go.
Few considerer the big picture. What struck me is how little people know about politics and how little people know about what the various levels of government are responsible for; potholes and speeding in suburban streets are the burning issue, not boat people.
Still a lot of undecided voters. Based on the sample I talked to today , Labor is going to win in a landslide. Most were going to vote in this election as in the last, a couple had moved their vote from Liberal to Labor. That is a swing to Labor.
Big issue is education, people have not heard of better schools, what it does or what it is about. Only one mention of refugees, from the left. The treatment of Gillard came up twice, Rudd being an angry man once.
I leant a lot and found it very interesting, I don’t think my effort is going to help much, but it is the best I can do.
[Is it true that pollster cannot call voters on the do not call register]
No – they are exempt like charities.
Last election was about:
Boats, Batts & BER
This election will be about:
Boats, Bubs & Budget Blowouts
Oh yes… and a referendum on the Carbon Tax
My post 1059
Oh and btw I think Abott’s PPL scheme is ridiculous.
Guytaur
I’m not surprised by that polling revelation.
See how it directs or controls the narrative.
This is what Palmer said about polling.
You can buy a desired result which he claimed he’d done when with the LNP.
Mick77
Posted Saturday, August 31, 2013 at 7:01 pm | Permalink
Mari
re self funded retirees, I am one and am amazed at what you say. You are going to be happy helping fund Abbott’s PPL etc? Just think please
The cost is very small based on reasonable assumptions. The irony is that income for SFRs has been far harder hit by reduced interest rates on fixed interest investments. Can we blame/thank Rudd/Gillard/Labor/Swan for that or is that an act of God from world economic conditions and not from their stuff-ups. Actually it’s a bit of both and there are two sides to interest rate reductions and it’s also important to consider the conditions that have generated them. The impact of PPL is a second or third order difference on SFR’s income, and again, even in isolation it’s small.
————————————————-
If its such a small amount take the money from people who can really afford it..How about a proper MRRT?
Or get Gina to pay some tax on her $600 per minute
[Mick77
Posted Saturday, August 31, 2013 at 7:01 pm | Permalink
…
Rudd/Gillard/Labor/Swan for that or is that an act of God from world economic conditions and not from their stuff-ups.
]
Only in you twisted world is AAA rating from all rating agents, low unemployment, low interest rates and no recession unlike every other developed economy a stuff up.
Very interesting that Rudd basically said that Labor’s internal polling suggests this election is a lot closer than people think
@Mick77/1059
Funny….
Interest Rates will always be lower under Coaliton Party.
So are you telling me, and others, that low interests are bad?
And very high (i.e. in the 18% range) are good?
[Oh and btw I think Abott’s PPL scheme is ridiculous.]
Not surprised to hear it Mick. Suspect many LNP supporters do.
It’s some sort of weird DLP policy on steroids. But even that doesn’t capture it.
ABC spruiking the JWS polling.
AA
[Or get Gina to pay some tax on her $600 per minute]
The Labor party will only be able to crawl back to power when they stop the slide back to class warfare and hatred of the wealthy. It’s not a crime to be wealthy, only among the far left. Liberal philosophy is to help all to increase their wealth and Labor had gravitated towards that under Hawke & Keating. Lately they’re back to wanting to drag everyone down to “equality”. Gillard started it and it continues on PB.
LOL ABC reports on Truss being photoshopped out of the real solutions brochure thingy for paid newspaper advertising.
The Liberals PPL policy has been pinched from the Greens, not place I would expect the Liberals to look for policy ideas.
CC : Tory preferences only become relevant if needed. They wont be.
Those of you sneering at inner city lefties obviously have never been at Marrickville Town Hall on polling day. That is NOT Albo’s base – most of those actually vote Green …
Oh and we dont go in for rich wankers and their trophy wives illegally parking their BMWs just to come over and whinge about the carbon price as I saw at Town Hall yesterday …
K17
[Very interesting that Rudd basically said that Labor’s internal polling suggests this election is a lot closer than people think]
Yes that is amazing because Kev has never been known to lie or make it up as he goes along.
@Lefty e/1070
And yet still support the LNP Party, shows their “ridiculous” notion (i.e. fake).
frednk
Great post at 1060!
[Very interesting that Rudd basically said that Labor’s internal polling suggests this election is a lot closer than people think]
The even funnier thing is Abbott agrees.
Z
[So are you telling me, and others, that low interests are bad?]
No I’m saying what I wrote in my post .. it all depends.
[Mick77
Posted Saturday, August 31, 2013 at 7:10 pm | Permalink
AA
Or get Gina to pay some tax on her $600 per minute
The Labor party will only be able to crawl back to power when they stop the slide back to class warfare and hatred of the wealthy.
]
Is that like Abbott claiming that his PPL thing is ok because it will be paid for by big companies.
@Mick77/1080
Telling people “it all depends” is like you don’t give shit type of answer and just deflecting.
[UPDATE: It gets messier – the Dobell and Robertson component of the poll was conducted, and published, two weeks ago, while the remainder is new polling from the other three seats). ]
William have you ever come across this absolute polling bullshit before?
Mick77
Posted Saturday, August 31, 2013 at 7:10 pm | Permalink
AA
Or get Gina to pay some tax on her $600 per minute
The Labor party will only be able to crawl back to power when they stop the slide back to class warfare and hatred of the wealthy. It’s not a crime to be wealthy, only among the far left. Liberal philosophy is to help all to increase their wealth and Labor had gravitated towards that under Hawke & Keating. Lately they’re back to wanting to drag everyone down to “equality”. Gillard started it and it continues on PB.
————————————————-
how is it class war to have the have’s assist the have nots.
I thought that was the very thing the Bible preaches
More polls please
@ruawake/1083
I think it’s saying you can’t rely on polling, esp robo and seat by seat polling.
What a famous win by the Blues!!!!!!!
Catch you later guys…..
marrickville mauler
What is you feeling on Grayndler – close or not?
frednk @1081
i repeat – I think PPL is ridiculous, but I give Abbott some slack. He’s allowed one or two stinkers and Rudd is an unelectable (post 2009) fraud with a party full of stinkers, and policy thought-bubbles to match, imho. And Labor is stuck with him, like a bad smell. Labor shoulda stuck with Gillard. She was hopeless and unelectable, but with some clarity and consistency of message. Rudd hasn’t changed the outcome but he’s destroyed the once great Labor party.
Mick77 @ 1072
[The Labor party will only be able to crawl back to power when they stop the slide back to class warfare and hatred of the wealthy. It’s not a crime to be wealthy, only among the far left. Liberal philosophy is to help all to increase their wealth and Labor had gravitated towards that under Hawke & Keating. Lately they’re back to wanting to drag everyone down to “equality”. Gillard started it and it continues on PB.]
You have a very twisted view of the world. It’s not a crime to be wealthy per se. It’s wrong to rip off the poor and disadvantaged. It’s wrong to build wealth and never contribute to the community through taxes. It’s not a healthy society when the poor are abused.
Some of the greatest philanthropists have, yes, been very wealthy. And then there’s Gina…
@Mick/1089
You say that ‘stinkers’ right, Mal Brough, and others who tried to frame Peter Slipper.
Not to mention a few stinkers in QLD LNP.
Abbott is stuck with Turnbull.
victoria:
Must’ve been some comeback. Last I saw we were trailing badly.
confessions:
I beg to differ. I have been personally maligned on many occasions during the Leadership crap.
On the leadership issue, I understand it will go ahead but MAY be overturned at the next National Conference.
I hope not. It’s a great move allowing branch members a say.
I don’t regard it as political expediency on Rudd’s part, just a small example of where the party must head to help control the faction leaders.
So, tomorrow will have all the Sunday paper endorsements.
Any bets on which ones will read like Liberal pamphlets, which ones will have the “…in spite of all of this, we feel it’s time for a change of government…” editorials and will there be a token endorsement for Rudd, so News Ltd can use it as “proof” of their neutrality?
Oh Mick,
Your little crappy rant about class warfare is just pathetic.
I have not seen any evidence that Coalition Party will keep any benefits for those low income or on Newstart and Pensions.
Mick77
You can’t be for real? PPL is a disgrace which nearly everyone accepts.
Gillard would never ever have won the election and you know it.
Either way that is all irrelevant – we have what we have and we want to win Government and keep the Libs out.
zoidy
It shows us that the polls are garbage and are being used for Newspaper headlines and to support a theme.
Newspoll putting two week old figures into todays release is disgusting and any of the Nate Silver award contenders should voice their disgust.
Won’t happen, garbage in garbage out.
AA
[how is it class war to have the have’s assist the have nots.]
And millions do assist their fellow man as they should, however what socialists advocate is forced unreasonable redistribution to punish the successful and bring everyone down to the same level. Far better to use wealth to elevate all and provide jobs. Labor & Libs have not been far apart on this for decades but Gillard dragged the debate back towards old-fashioned socialist class warfare. A lot of repair work needed within what’s left of ALP after next Sat.
#1051: Lenore Taylor is about as much a Liberal as Julia Gillard is. Rant and rave against whoever and whatever you like, but try to keep it real.
Message to all of the very one-eyed on PB. Over the next week or so you are going to be reading a lot of media stories writing off Labor’s chances and criticing the campaign strategy, Rudd, etc.
Just because a journalist writes a story like this doesn’t mean that he or she is a paid-up member of the Liberal Party. Indeed, the genuine Liberals in the media will be out there talking up how close the election is, in an effort to get out the vote.
@Mick77/1098
ROFL…. “But gillard did this”…
What a stupid excuse.