James J relates that Newspoll has published two further aggregated marginal seats polls to join the survey of five Sydney seats published yesterday. One targets the four most marginal Labor seats in New South Wales outside Sydney – Dobell (5.1%), Robertson (1.0%), Page (4.2%) and Eden-Monaro (4.2%) – plus, somewhat messily, the Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith (UPDATE: It gets messier – the Dobell and Robertson component of the poll was conducted, and published, two weeks ago, while the remainder is new polling from the other three seats). The collective result is 53-47 to the Liberals, suggesting a swing of 7%. The primary votes are 48% for the Coalition and 36% for Labor. The other targets the three most marginal Labor seats in Victoria, Corangamite (0.3%), Deakin (0.6%) and La Trobe (1.7%), showing the Liberals with a 53-47 lead and suggesting a swing of about 4%. The primary votes are 34% for Labor and 47% for the Coalition. Each of the three has a sample of 800 and a margin of error of about 3.5%. The Australian’s display of all three seats of results including personal ratings and voter commitment numbers can be viewed here.
Also today:
• Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll, which among other things have Tony Abbott ahead of Kevin Rudd as preferred prime minister.
• JWS Research has some scattered looking automated phone poll results from various Labor seats which include one piece of good news for Labor – a 57.2-42.8 lead for Kevin Rudd in Griffith, for a swing against Labor of a little over 1% – together with a rather greater amount of bad news: Wayne Swan trailing 53.8-46.2 in Lilley (a 7% swing), Chris Bowen trailing 53.1-46.9 in McMahon (11%), Rob Mitchell trailing 54.7-45.3 in his seemingly safe Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen (14%), and Labor hanging on to a 50.6-49.4 lead in Bendigo (9%), to be vacated by the retirement of Steve Gibbons.
• The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.
UPDATE: Galaxy has a further two electorate-level automated poll results, showing the Liberal National Party well ahead in its Queensland marginals of Herbert (55-45) and Dawson (57-43).
Mick 77 – your post #1098 rather ignores undeserved lack of opportunity in education for one thing
Kids of the wealthy have multiple cricket pitches; kids of the poor dont have anywhere to play
confessions@981
As a self proclaimed ALP member, what are you doing to campaign in your electorate?
Have you been in touch with your branch or the campaign committee?
MM
Asked a little earlier but is Albo in any trouble in Grayndler?
feeney:
I have no problem with members having a say in electing the leadership. My issue with the proposed reform centres around the 75% rule and the ambiguous criteria attached to it for removal of the leader. I think that is unworkable and could lead to a leader who really should be removed entrenching him/herself in the role.
As to the political expediency, I think that’s obvious. As was the supposed NSW branch takeover. If this weren’t just for political expediency, Sam Dastyari’s candidacy for the Senate would’ve been blocked.
[Message to all of the very one-eyed on PB. Over the next week or so you are going to be reading a lot of media stories writing off Labor’s chances and criticing the campaign strategy, Rudd, etc.
Just because a journalist writes a story like this doesn’t mean that he or she is a paid-up member of the Liberal Party. Indeed, the genuine Liberals in the media will be out there talking up how close the election is, in an effort to get out the vote.]
Well said meher.
MTBW
[You can’t be for real? PPL is a disgrace which nearly everyone accepts.]
Why is it a disgrace; it’s just bad policy as I said
[Gillard would never ever have won the election and you know it.]
As I said (I think) and I was happy to see the back of her but Rudd is a nastier being, who I’ll be even happier to see the back of, and he has brought the same result for Labor, plus damagedthe party.
[Either way that is all irrelevant – we have what we have and we want to win Government and keep the Libs out.]
Why do you want to keep the Libs out unless you are unthinking rusted-on forever Labor no matter what, no matter who, no matter when. Labor absolutely deserved to be turfed out this time, starting with their alliance with the Green devils. Next election is another story and Labor should be aiming to win back voters like me who have supported them most of their lives.
confessions@1004
Good on you confessions.
Father Kevin Lee’s blogpost getting 1,000 hits an hour.
http://kevinmatthewlee.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/microchipping-of-human-subjects-as_2989.html
MM
[Kids of the wealthy have multiple cricket pitches; kids of the poor dont have anywhere to play]
What a ridiculous generalisation, even from the nouveaux socialists in the Labor party.
[Mick77
You can’t be for real? PPL is a disgrace which nearly everyone accepts.]
Remind us again…. do union heavies like ACTU head Ged Kearney get paid her full $200K or whatever she makes per year Paid Parental leave?
What about Labor Party MP’s, do they get paid $220K a year for having a baby?
What about public servants, do they get paid their wage for having a baby?
Are the ALP and Union Heavies going to change this and stop union heavies and their Labor mates from getting paid their full wage when a factory worker gets minimum wage??
Or is it… could it possibly be… ONE Rule for Labor Heavies and their Union Mates…. and one rule for the rest of us.
@Mick77/1106
You really are nasty one, claiming that Rudd is nastier being, it’s not about the person, it’s about policy.
For example, Newstart is going to get cut under Coalition Party.
@Sean/1110
As I been saying, you don’t need a new policy, just change the existing one.
[
Mick77
..
Why do you want to keep the Libs
]
Never in my life time has such an incompetent lot been presented as the liberal team, god help us all if they win.
The ALP and Union Bosses support getting paid your full wage Paid Parental Leave…. but ONLY for themselves.
Everyone else can get farked.
One rule for the union heavies and ALP… one rule for the rest of us.
Mick – wow what a compelling non answer. How many schools have you seen? Noticed anything? of course not.
Mick77
[Why do you want to keep the Libs out unless you are unthinking rusted-on forever Labor no matter what, no matter who, no matter when. Labor absolutely deserved to be turfed out this time, starting with their alliance with the Green devils. Next election is another story and Labor should be aiming to win back voters like me who have supported them most of their lives.]
Unthinking? No! I am concerned about social justice issues not about the big end of town and those who avoid paying taxes.
I am not a Green’s voter but would put them before the Libs on any ballot paper.
Claiming that the ALP should be looking to win back voters like you begs the question why did you desert them.
@Sean/1114
Funny.
It’s a pitty that Abbott doesn’t think the same about FTTP Broadband too.
“Have, and have nots”.
frednk
[god help us all if they (Libs) win.]
What bunkum, but fear not, God helps even the atheists. In case you’ve never noticed Oz is a democratic country where governments tend to change hands every 5-10 years, THANK GOD!
Libs and Nats at war in five seats.
@Mick77/1118
Perhaps John Howard should retired earlier to the Opposition…. then…
ANC says Truss sidelined from Coalition campaign.
TT
Which one’s!
ABC
ABC didn’t name the five seats where the Libs and Nats are at war.
[Libs and Nats at war in five seats.]
O’Connor is one of them.
Truss airbrushed out of the coalition’s real solutions brochure as well.
So the rich are going to benefit from Abbott’s PPL Package, that gives them $75,000, and the ability to pay for Fibre-on-demand because in those area’s will be “Commercially Viable”.
Thanks TT!
[ TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans 17m
So internationally respected & acclaimed Ecomonists endorsed PMKR, while the equally disdained & despised #NewsCorpse endorsed Abbott, ha ha ]
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21584343-kevin-rudd-just-about-deserves-second-turn-lucky-no-more
Jism
If the Commonwealth PS PPL scheme is so good, why do Tony and Joe say they will leave it for Tony’s?
In fact if I was a public servant of any kind I would tell Tony to shove his PPL where the sun don’t shine. So his savings are crap as usual.
28 weeks half pay and 52 weeks leave without pay sound pretty good, no upper limit on wage. 80 weeks leave with a guaranteed return to work.
Why switch to Abbott?
MTBW:
Albo takes no votes for granted and we campaign for him as if it were the most marginal seat in Australia. He has immense responsibilities as the leader of the Left and in implementing large chunks of Gough’s program to address the spatial dimensions of inequality and ineffeciency. Lots of people round here are flirting with the Greens because, you know, the vibe. Some today were of course saying they are still upset about what happened to Julia. But many also said they recognise Albo’s work in turning the Labor vision into law as Leader of the house and honour his role as someone that all groups in the party respect.
And pretty much no-one likes Hall Greenland for the Greens – a man with a decades long record of vanity and non achievement
MTBW
Before I answer your question can I ask if you have ever in your life, or are there any circumstances under which you would vote Libs. If not, our discussion on why I or others change my vote from time to time seems fruitless because many things change our minds and attitudes about policies, people, circumstances, but maybe nothing can change yours? Often it’s intangible, sometimes but rarely it’s self interest.
Remove the superannuation co-contribution for 3.7 million low income workers, mainly women, casuals and part-time
School Kids bonus
Up to 3.2 million small businesses will lose the budget measure to write off asset purchases. $5.2 billion worth of measures aimed at small business are removed by Abbott and he has listed this tax increase under savings. The 1.5% tax was a give with one hand while Abbott tales with the other
An NBN that will cost small business (and others) up to $5,000 to connect.
So tell me again, what is Abbott going to do for the less advantaged and small business?
ABCnewsIntern @ABCnewsIntern 4h
Nearly every sentence in The Economist’s endorsement of Kevin Rudd is quotable: http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21584343-kevin-rudd-just-about-deserves-second-turn-lucky-no-more … #ausvotes
Retweeted by Phillip Adams
frednk@1060
Good stuff frednk!
But be careful, it is habit forming. You could become like me, a “compulsive campaigner”. 😛
Thanks MM
[But many also said they recognise Albo’s work in turning the Labor vision into law as Leader of the house and honour his role as someone that all groups in the party respect.]
Agree with those comments you referenced.
Confessions:
It’s difficult to undertake any meaningful reform within a few weeks. Rudd should not be criticised for that, surely.
After the election, win or lose, there needs to be wholesale Federal intervention in the affairs of the NSW ALP – a complete clean out, nothing showy but substance.
And, if there are any other branches that need looking at, so be it.
Sean Tisme
Posted Saturday, August 31, 2013 at 7:40 pm | Permalink
The ALP and Union Bosses support getting paid your full wage Paid Parental Leave…. but ONLY for themselves.
Everyone else can get farked.
One rule for the union heavies and ALP… one rule for the rest of us.
———————————————————-
And introduce a PPL that allows people with the income of Gina, Twiggy etc to claim the $75,000.
I’ll bet people in their position still get their full pay.
One rule…bullshit……As I said to you earlier…look up their Union Award and come back with facts instead of your mindless immature childish rants.
MM
[Kids of the wealthy have multiple cricket pitches; kids of the poor dont have anywhere to play]
What response were you looking for to this class-war far left socialist generalisation bunkum?
[quote]Libs and Nats at war in five seats.[/quote]
Yeah, I hate to burst your enthusiasm but this is pretty standard. It’s all civil and pleasant until 2 people want the same seat …
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/a-vote-against-media.html
Sean Tisme
Posted Saturday, August 31, 2013 at 7:40 pm | Permalink
The ALP and Union Bosses support getting paid your full wage Paid Parental Leave…. but ONLY for themselves.
Everyone else can get farked.
One rule for the union heavies and ALP… one rule for the rest of us.
—————————————————
Liberals, Nationals, Institute of Public Affairs employees and Menzies House employees all get their full wage.
And they get that based on what Unions have gained over the years, not because they are compassionate employers.
Mick77
When the Liberal Partu discovers social inclusion I may vote for them, don’t think I ever will, do you?
feeney:
I don’t think his effort was meaningful, I think it was for reasons of political expediency only.
And yes, the time for wholesale reform is when the party is in opposition. My own view is that the current leader doesn’t have the capacity to make the decisions needed, or to follow through.
Mick77
There would never be a circumstance when I would vote Lib.
Their ideology is nothing akin to mine. I simply do not buy that what is good for the wealthy is good for us all.
Whether or not I would vote for someone other than Labor may arise only if I felt I could no longer vote for the ALP for something like criminal behaviour.
Mick77
There would never be a circumstance when I would vote Lib.
Their ideology is nothing akin to mine. I simply do not buy that what is good for the wealthy is good for us all.
Whether or not I would vote for someone other than Labor may arise only if I felt I could no longer vote for the ALP for something like criminal behaviour.
1095
zoidlord
[I have not seen any evidence that Coalition Party will keep any benefits for those low income or on Newstart and Pensions.]
Abbott has said that he doesn’t see any reason somebody with ‘a bit of a bad back or bout of mental illness’ should get a DSP. Notice his framing. Deliberately fanning the flames of that nasty stereotype of a DSP being easy to get, and an unaccountable free ride once you have it.
Pretty clear where he will go with DSP. Question is, how far?
•••••••••••••••
How to spot an El Primo Arsehole:
They kick the weak on behalf of the powerful.
Sorry to dash hopes on the internal polling from “nudge-nudge wink-wink, never told a porkie in my life fraudster Rudd” but sportingbet now has Labor at 15.00 and Libs at 1.01. But what would they know .. it’s only their money at stake.
It’s somewhat ironical that the ‘world’s best treasurer’, who presided over an economy that is the envy of the western world, is facing defeat in his seat, as is his successor.
Mick77@1072
I normally ignore your Tory rantings, but you might want to ponder this:
[“There’s class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.”
– Warren Buffett]
If you are looking for class warfare, you need look no further than the LNP with their socialism for the rich in the PPL, removal of any means testing of the Private Health Insurance subsidy and on the other hand, removal of the school kids bonus, low income earners super bonus etc.
Abbott does not do deals with minor Parties.
Describe the Nationals. Only around 450,000 people vote for them. Greens had 3 times that number