Newspoll marginals polling: 7% swing in NSW, 4% in Victoria

Newspoll targets four regional NSW seats held by Labor plus one in Sydney, with only slightly better results for Labor than yesterday’s all-Sydney poll.

James J relates that Newspoll has published two further aggregated marginal seats polls to join the survey of five Sydney seats published yesterday. One targets the four most marginal Labor seats in New South Wales outside Sydney – Dobell (5.1%), Robertson (1.0%), Page (4.2%) and Eden-Monaro (4.2%) – plus, somewhat messily, the Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith (UPDATE: It gets messier – the Dobell and Robertson component of the poll was conducted, and published, two weeks ago, while the remainder is new polling from the other three seats). The collective result is 53-47 to the Liberals, suggesting a swing of 7%. The primary votes are 48% for the Coalition and 36% for Labor. The other targets the three most marginal Labor seats in Victoria, Corangamite (0.3%), Deakin (0.6%) and La Trobe (1.7%), showing the Liberals with a 53-47 lead and suggesting a swing of about 4%. The primary votes are 34% for Labor and 47% for the Coalition. Each of the three has a sample of 800 and a margin of error of about 3.5%. The Australian’s display of all three seats of results including personal ratings and voter commitment numbers can be viewed here.

Also today:

• Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll, which among other things have Tony Abbott ahead of Kevin Rudd as preferred prime minister.

• JWS Research has some scattered looking automated phone poll results from various Labor seats which include one piece of good news for Labor – a 57.2-42.8 lead for Kevin Rudd in Griffith, for a swing against Labor of a little over 1% – together with a rather greater amount of bad news: Wayne Swan trailing 53.8-46.2 in Lilley (a 7% swing), Chris Bowen trailing 53.1-46.9 in McMahon (11%), Rob Mitchell trailing 54.7-45.3 in his seemingly safe Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen (14%), and Labor hanging on to a 50.6-49.4 lead in Bendigo (9%), to be vacated by the retirement of Steve Gibbons.

• The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.

UPDATE: Galaxy has a further two electorate-level automated poll results, showing the Liberal National Party well ahead in its Queensland marginals of Herbert (55-45) and Dawson (57-43).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,325 comments on “Newspoll marginals polling: 7% swing in NSW, 4% in Victoria”

Comments Page 1 of 27
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  3. A very old saying:

    Sow the wind; reap the whirlwind.

    I so hope all of you who’ve been sowing the wind have your hatches battened down well.

    If not, enjoy!

  11. @Carey/7

    I agree, Rudd should have not done what he has done, and just stick to basics no big gotchya’s that media would tap on.

  13. @Sean/8

    My electricity is solar powered, which Newman and Barnett tried to charge us money for.

    Just to not use goverment assets.

    Due to attempted “slash feed-in tariffs”.

  14. Power prices will not come down 10% tisme you idiot.
    Let’s have a bet if you are so sure.

    Evan – The bristle Kelly yes, but Saffin? Not so sure.

    Looks like Kate Ellis is safe then, good news for Pembo.

  16. The Dobell swing could and probably will be quite large given the Thompson factor. Not doubting there’s a swing on elsewhere just that it may not be quite as big as this poll suggests.

  17. Tisme

    You idiot, he’ll never get a pension increase in real terms again as long as your Monkey is in government.

    Don’t be patronising, offensive and insulting. Actually do the Bludgers a favour and go to bed.

    *night

  19. Oakes calls it and dumps on Labors “trickery” on the costings.

    [THE mandarins of Australia’s public service are naturally silent creatures, at least in public. The idea of taking sides in a political argument is anathema to them.

    That is especially the case during an election campaign. They understand they have a duty to behave in a nonpartisan way and they are serious about it.

    But sometimes senior bureaucrats can be pushed too far by politicians. That happened on Thursday.

    Kevin Rudd and his two most senior economics ministers crossed the line by trying to use the reputation of Treasury, the Finance Department and the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) in a bit of political trickery. Treasury head Martin Parkinson and Finance Department secretary David Tune cried “Enough!” .]

  20. I will make one safe prediction: the incoming Abbott Government will have no climate change policy. The Direct Action thing will be shelved, and Greg Hunt will spend the next 3 years either saving the whales or encouraging teenagers to clean up rivers.

  21. Oh dear ml have yet to see a national poll with anything more than a 4 percent uniform swing since the change of leader. Most of them have been closer to 3 percent.

  23. Actually this is not a bad result for the govt given NSW will be the worst result. Must be holding up elsewhere if the national polls are right.
    Could still retain govt even if this dodgy poll is legit.

  24. And I think I will laugh if Matt Thistlewaite does not win Kingsford Smith. Perhaps preselecting instead Tony Bowen for the seat might have been a smarter idea?

  25. Newspoll Deakin, Corangamite and La Trobe

    2PP 53-47 2PP to Coalition
    Primary: ALP 34, Coalition 47

    Preferred PM: Abbott 44, Rudd 43
    Abbott satisfaction 43
    Rudd satisfaction 35

  26. I am finding working out what this one tells us that we don’t already know quite a challenging task. Probably slightly bad for Labor cf existing knowledge. Not much in it though.

  28. let the poor Tisme dude have his moment of glory and squeal all he likes about the virtues of an Abbot Government… he’s had six years of the ALP … now he can look forward to a few years of Howard era politics. I suspect his gloating wont last long as the LNP face the reality of governing in a world very different from Howard’s time

  29. I’m really looking forward to this magical paradise Abbott has promised us. It will be amazing – minimal taxes and cuts, massive spending AND a surplus! How come Labor have never been able to work such economic miracles?

    We’re all going to be much better off come September 7. Nothing could go wrong with such visionaries casting their magic spells on our country.

  30. Newspoll Western Sydney
    Parramatta, Reid, Banks, Lindsay, Greenway

    2PP 57-43 2PP
    Primaries Coalition 52, ALP 34, Greens 7
    Rudd Satisfied 37, Dissatisfied 55
    Abbott Satisfied 47, Dissatisfied 46
    Better PM Rudd 40, Abbott 46

  31. Of course we will be better off, Abbott will save us from those Muslim boat people trying to invade our fair country.
    I know I will sleep safer in my bed from September 8. 🙂

  34. My comment #26 was re the NSW non-WS marginals poll. As for the Vic one it’s bang on the average of existing seat polling for those three from what I have.

    Thanks James J for the results.

  38. James is doing a great job, so is Kevin Bonham, and of course William(who deserves the biggest beer of the lot)

    Victorian Newspoll – It tells us what we already knew, Labor will lose those 3 seats.

  39. Western Sydney poll: 800 voters over 23-28 August
    Victorian marginals: 800 sample, 27-29 August
    NSW Costal Marginals: Dobbell and Robertson was 12-14 August (already published), the other seats August 23-28 August

  40. Radio Station 2GB in Sydney will be in ecstacy next Saturday night.
    Actually one blessing of an Abbott victory might be the resignations of Alan Jones, Ray Hadley and Chris Smith – their work will be done(the complete eradication of the ALP)

  41. @Evan Parsons 31

    I can see it now. People smugglers begging in the slums of a completely boat-free Indonesia, a huge influx of refugees to New Zealand, rednecks and talkback listeners finally able to walk the streets without being accosted by brown people. It’ll be heaven.

  44. OK so the Dobell and Robertson samples were old rope already published and were 54-46, so probably the other three combined are about 52-48, which is worse for ALP than current seat betting reckons.

    Based on the seat polling alone I would not write off all three Vic seats. There would be some chance on that seat polling that Labor might hold one.

  46. Do the people of western sydney honestly think that conservatives give a shit about people on less than $100k a year? They gonna get a large dose of conservatism soon. Hope there is no whinging!!

  49. The punters are getting conned mostly because they are disengaged with facts and would rather believe abbott lover shock jocks and abbott lover murdoch newspapers.Enjoy your delusion while it lasts.

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