Newspoll marginals polling: 7% swing in NSW, 4% in Victoria

Newspoll targets four regional NSW seats held by Labor plus one in Sydney, with only slightly better results for Labor than yesterday’s all-Sydney poll.

James J relates that Newspoll has published two further aggregated marginal seats polls to join the survey of five Sydney seats published yesterday. One targets the four most marginal Labor seats in New South Wales outside Sydney – Dobell (5.1%), Robertson (1.0%), Page (4.2%) and Eden-Monaro (4.2%) – plus, somewhat messily, the Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith (UPDATE: It gets messier – the Dobell and Robertson component of the poll was conducted, and published, two weeks ago, while the remainder is new polling from the other three seats). The collective result is 53-47 to the Liberals, suggesting a swing of 7%. The primary votes are 48% for the Coalition and 36% for Labor. The other targets the three most marginal Labor seats in Victoria, Corangamite (0.3%), Deakin (0.6%) and La Trobe (1.7%), showing the Liberals with a 53-47 lead and suggesting a swing of about 4%. The primary votes are 34% for Labor and 47% for the Coalition. Each of the three has a sample of 800 and a margin of error of about 3.5%. The Australian’s display of all three seats of results including personal ratings and voter commitment numbers can be viewed here.

Also today:

• Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll, which among other things have Tony Abbott ahead of Kevin Rudd as preferred prime minister.

• JWS Research has some scattered looking automated phone poll results from various Labor seats which include one piece of good news for Labor – a 57.2-42.8 lead for Kevin Rudd in Griffith, for a swing against Labor of a little over 1% – together with a rather greater amount of bad news: Wayne Swan trailing 53.8-46.2 in Lilley (a 7% swing), Chris Bowen trailing 53.1-46.9 in McMahon (11%), Rob Mitchell trailing 54.7-45.3 in his seemingly safe Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen (14%), and Labor hanging on to a 50.6-49.4 lead in Bendigo (9%), to be vacated by the retirement of Steve Gibbons.

• The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.

UPDATE: Galaxy has a further two electorate-level automated poll results, showing the Liberal National Party well ahead in its Queensland marginals of Herbert (55-45) and Dawson (57-43).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,325 comments on “Newspoll marginals polling: 7% swing in NSW, 4% in Victoria”

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  6. Ooh.

    “@GhostWhoVotes: #JWSResearch Poll Seat of Griffith 2 Party Preferred: ALP 57.2 LIB 42.8 #ausvotes”

    That’s rather more encouraging.

  7. GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 30s

    #JWSResearch Poll Seat of McMahon 2 Party Preferred: ALP 46.9 LIB 53.1 #ausvotes

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 4s

    #JWSResearch Poll Seat of McEwen 2 Party Preferred: ALP 45.3 LIB 54.7 #ausvotes

  10. Zoidlord…

    I’m actually praying for Rudd to win his seat now. At first I wanted him to face the humiliation of losing his seat, but then Mick wised me up on my ways and reminded me of the last 3 years of Ruddstoration shit fight.

    Imagine at least another 3 years of it… Bill Shorten will want Rudds job and he will fight tooth and nail to keep it.

  11. [What if Tony Abbott is the greatest Prime Minister has ever had…

    You Labor Hacks haven’t even given him a chance yet.]

    This comes from Sean, one of the biggest Coalition hacks on here. Who, by the way, has never given a Labor PM a chance. Said without any irony.

    “Hackocrisy”

  12. [#JWSResearch Poll Seat of Griffith 2 Party Preferred: ALP 57.2 LIB 42.8 #ausvotes]

    Lol. He’s all over Glasson like a rash. So much for previous polls

    Is it just me who finds these combo-polls piss useless?

  14. Labor losing McEwen?
    That is a new one for me.

    If Rudd gets 57% of the vote in Griffith, there is no way he will retire from politics, especially as it looks like quite a few other cabinet ministers will be out the door(Bowen, Bradbury especially).
    Bob Carr might be persuaded to resign from the Senate, and hand his seat over to Chris Bowen.

  15. On a non-political note – who else watched the final episode of “Broadchurch” on the ABC tonight?
    One of the best pieces of television I have seen in quite a while.
    David Tennant and Olivia Colman – wonderful acting.

  16. Abbott will be the biggest joke of a PM we’ve had since McMahon

    Punters will be laughing at him inside. 3 months
    .
    You know it . I know it.

  21. Unless its a really close defeat, I can’t see even Rudd being brazen enough to stay on. Nor do I think it would matter too much. The rest of the party will want a fresh start, and they will get it whether Rudd wants them to or not.

    They went back to Rudd out of desperation. Putting in Shorten or any other leader in that close to in an election would have been political suicide. But once they’re in opposition, things will be different. You’re expected to change leaders after losing government, and Rudd’s one big draw within caucas – his apparent popularity and ability to win elections – will be gone. Sure, maybe he’ll try to cause mischief behind the scenes and destablise the current leaders (though would he really want to be Opposition Leader again? Its a very different thing to being Prime Minister), but without an impending electoral wipeout on the horizon to spook Labor I can’t see it really working even his favour.

  23. Labor are not winning the election.The media and shock jocks have never got over the last election where 2 independent conservatives wouldnt even trust murdoch golden boy abbott to run a piss up in a brewery

  24. The MSM have been campaigning against ALP since August 2010.If you tell people over and over again the same story they begin to believe it and thats exactly whats happening.

  25. Yes Cupid, it was a stunning repudiation of a conservative leader by conservative indies.

    Abbott has already lost the LNP one term of govt. As a likely single term PM his record will be net zero!

  35. I was hoping for SA senate for today as well. It appears 2 Liberal and Labour are going to happen but the last two could be interesting. Nick Xenophon, Greens, perhaps a third Liberal. Antony Green’s senate calculator gives No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics a chance as well as they get a great run with preferences from other micro parties. If they can somehow get above Family First then they will get their preferences and then who knows, but I really doubt it is going to happen.

  36. That McEwen poll doesn’t shock me, it and Bendigo are two seats that for while i have considered close to being Liberal gains.

    Bendigo has lost its sitting MP removing any personal.

    McEwen is a diverse seat, i know the Craigieburn part of the seat is viewed as ALP turf but it has pockets of high levels of unemployment and is home to many young families.

    Many of the problems hurting the ALP in western Sydney apply to McEwen.

  37. Evan Parsons@65

    On a non-political note – who else watched the final episode of “Broadchurch” on the ABC tonight?

    Aye. Bit of an effort for me given my poor hearing in certain ranges, which makes me struggle terribly with accents, but intense stuff.

    How reliable is JWS as a pollster?

    I’d say middling. Not too crash hot in the seats that mattered last time. But there is a lot of odd stuff going on with seat polls at this election.

    Anyone wanting to know my views of a given pollster at any time can look up my Field Guide To Opinion Pollsters at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/a-field-guide-to-australian-opinion.html

  38. When Rudd took the leadership over he had ppm of 51 to 34.Then the MSM went all out on him now its about level. That is proof of how people believe media as in my comment 74.They know that people need to be told how to vote and so zone in on them because it only takes small percentages of changing votes to win Oz elections.

  39. A prime example of disengagement. Last election my mate had a phone call asking him who to vote for? I wonder how many voters do this?

  45. cupidstunt

    To be fair the disconnect between the voters and the politicians has a lot to do with Governments as he said at the and promise the world then don’t deliver.

    The first government to be straight and deliver will be very difficult to beat.

    Both major parties say many things but their actions don’t match.

    To blame the voters is to ignore the performance of Government of both parties.

  46. Both the national and seat polls now seem to be converging on 53-47 as the Coalition’s poll lead and unless something dramatic changes that is the final result I would expect. 53-47 is the margin by which Howard lost in 2007, a comfortable Coalition win but not the massacre suggested by polls earlier in the year. Australia will now become something of a right-wingers’ paradise, socially conservative, neoliberal, hostile to immigration and neoconservative. US Tea Partiers fed up with Obama may well think about giving Oz a try. For Australians who are not hard right conservatives, homosexuals, public sector workers and those who have the slightest concern for the environment I would suggest a 3 year sabbatical to New Zealand or Europe may not be a bad idea!

  48. Has anyone does any Senate polling in SA. I am pushing to not have the Greens elected in SA. It requires a significant shift to the conservatives and the Green vote below 8% and X above 19% before I get the National Party over the line. I would love to see Hanson Young lose her seat but I can not see the numbers of swing required.

    Does anyone have some realistic percentages.

    You can not use the 2010 default used by Antony Green because of the X factor as a base. So I have had to reflect back to 2007 where Xenophone secured 15%. Some say he can command up to 20% of the vote but if so what proportions and from which other parties is it coming from?

    Its ll about the X Factor., Could the Greens fall below 7% in SA.

    Sky News take on Green preferences and their campaign in SA

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqW-3fSJIQI&feature=youtu.be

  49. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    NOW they tell us!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/life-is-much-better-under-labor-after-all-says-study-20130830-2sw8l.html
    Peter Martin declares Clive Palmer’s magic pudding economics proposal to be FALSE.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/fact-checker/is-clive-palmers-tax-cut-a-magic-pudding-or-a-pup-20130830-2suxw.html
    Piss off you useless hag!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/bronwyn-bishop-says-gonski-reforms-will-dumb-down-schools-20130830-2sw1z.html
    Fairfax has a Porkometer.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/pork-o-meter
    Don’t say you weren’t warned.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/lib-candidate-spills-beans-on-workchoices-says-bill-shorten-20130830-2suhn.html
    Alan Moir feels sorry for the schoolkids.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    Davbid Pope on the political duoploy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg – MUST SEE.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  50. Here’s hoping that the polls tighten a bit during the next week to at least make it interesting on election night. Wonder whether people wake up on Sunday and say – what have we done.

    Why is it ok for the Coalition get control of the Senate but never the ALP? Always found that fascinating.

    Here is a thought, people lock their home loans in for three years @ 4.99% now and when they come off them in time for next election, interest rate has jumped to say 6.5% . Interest rates mantra of Coalition in tatters?

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