Newspoll marginals polling: 7% swing in NSW, 4% in Victoria

Newspoll targets four regional NSW seats held by Labor plus one in Sydney, with only slightly better results for Labor than yesterday’s all-Sydney poll.

James J relates that Newspoll has published two further aggregated marginal seats polls to join the survey of five Sydney seats published yesterday. One targets the four most marginal Labor seats in New South Wales outside Sydney – Dobell (5.1%), Robertson (1.0%), Page (4.2%) and Eden-Monaro (4.2%) – plus, somewhat messily, the Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith (UPDATE: It gets messier – the Dobell and Robertson component of the poll was conducted, and published, two weeks ago, while the remainder is new polling from the other three seats). The collective result is 53-47 to the Liberals, suggesting a swing of 7%. The primary votes are 48% for the Coalition and 36% for Labor. The other targets the three most marginal Labor seats in Victoria, Corangamite (0.3%), Deakin (0.6%) and La Trobe (1.7%), showing the Liberals with a 53-47 lead and suggesting a swing of about 4%. The primary votes are 34% for Labor and 47% for the Coalition. Each of the three has a sample of 800 and a margin of error of about 3.5%. The Australian’s display of all three seats of results including personal ratings and voter commitment numbers can be viewed here.

Also today:

• Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll, which among other things have Tony Abbott ahead of Kevin Rudd as preferred prime minister.

• JWS Research has some scattered looking automated phone poll results from various Labor seats which include one piece of good news for Labor – a 57.2-42.8 lead for Kevin Rudd in Griffith, for a swing against Labor of a little over 1% – together with a rather greater amount of bad news: Wayne Swan trailing 53.8-46.2 in Lilley (a 7% swing), Chris Bowen trailing 53.1-46.9 in McMahon (11%), Rob Mitchell trailing 54.7-45.3 in his seemingly safe Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen (14%), and Labor hanging on to a 50.6-49.4 lead in Bendigo (9%), to be vacated by the retirement of Steve Gibbons.

• The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.

UPDATE: Galaxy has a further two electorate-level automated poll results, showing the Liberal National Party well ahead in its Queensland marginals of Herbert (55-45) and Dawson (57-43).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,325 comments on “Newspoll marginals polling: 7% swing in NSW, 4% in Victoria”

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  2. Oh please JWS stop making me laugh. 😆 Oh btw this is the poll possum described as the worst robopoll ever, and to junk any findings it makes.

  3. [One targets the four most marginal Labor seats in New South Wales outside Sydney – Dobell (5.1%), Robertson (1.0%), Page (4.2%) and Eden-Monaro (4.2%) – plus, somewhat messily, the Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith. ]

    Even more messy two of the seats (Dobell and Robertson) are from 2 weeks (Aug 12-14) and already published. Why did they add them to the new seats? Dodgy brothers at The Australian strike again. What crap.

  4. The mcewen and bendigo result squares with earlier polling that labor will face its biggest swing in semi-rural seats. Ive been saying that you guys have been watching the wrong seats. I would like to see a newspoll for bendigo, mcewen and ballarat.

  5. Forgot the money quote.

    [These polls were conducted on the telephone by trained interviewers among 1106 voters
    in total in the New South Wales electorates of:
    -Dobell, Robertson (12-14 August 2013, as previously published)
    -Kingsford Smith, Page, Eden-Monaro (August 23-28, 2013).]

  7. Morning all. Yes ruawake, one of the things that has sustained my optimism throughout the campaign is the bizarre releases of limited and oddly clumped information. If things are going as well for the libs as the media would have us believe why are none of them focussing on normal samples.

  8. And from the Land of the Free –

    Listen to this! It’s Dolly Parton’s version of “Jolene” slighly slowed down. It sounds like a man is singing it and it is quite beautiful.
    http://americablog.com/2013/08/dolly-parton-jolene-slow-video.html
    This says plenty about modern America.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/30/graphic-of-the-day-why-its-easier-to-buy-an-assault-weapon-than-to-vote/
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/29/infographic-a-great-democracy-does-not-make-it-harder-to-vote-than-to-buy-an-assault-weapon-ours-does/
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/29/nra-let-kids-carry-a-6-shooter-but-not-a-six-pack/
    Some cartoons on voting rights.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/30/cartoons-of-the-day-racism-what-racism/
    Work this out!!!!????
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/rand-paul-opposes-us-attack-if-it-could-kill
    We don’t like Alan Jones but he’s nothing like this!
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/tea-party-talk-host-trayvon-deserves-be-dead
    The place is rooted!
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/west-virginia-woman-loses-everything-after-r
    This potentially vital information did not come to light in the Zimmerman trial.
    http://crooksandliars.com/karoli/george-zimmermans-wife-left-night-trayvons-
    George Galloway’s fiery contribution to the House of Commons debste on a response to Syria. He is a great orator.
    http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017142135

  9. I predict a 54.8 to 45.2 result to the LNP with 90 seats to LNP.
    I think South Australia is holding better for the ALP.

    Again no idea what the hell is going down in QLD.

  18. CTar1
    I enjoyed it mostly for thr production values and the character of the dwarf (who is Canadian, by the way). There were some nice villains.

  19. Edi_Mahin
    Posted Friday, August 30, 2013 at 11:55 pm | PERMALINK
    Any good news for Labor in these polls?

    ———

    These current media opinion polls are mitt style polls

    which will be exposed next saturday

  20. Edi_Mahin
    Posted Saturday, August 31, 2013 at 12:19 am | PERMALINK

    What evidence do you have that Labor is winning this election?
    ——

    Media opinion polls get it wrong, they are not reality

  21. New2This
    Posted Saturday, August 31, 2013 at 6:40 am | PERMALINK
    Will Rudd go to the G20…
    ———

    Abbott wont be the leader of the liberal party

  22. BK

    Frpm your link.Labor should make sure all Tasmanians hear what the Bronniesaurus had to say.

    [The Mackellar MP then asked voters if they wanted their schools to be the same as Tasmania’s, and answered her own question: “No, thank you.”…..” “It was an offensive comment. She used the words ‘dumbing down’.” Ms Kewin said.
    ]

  28. I’ve been saying for many months: Essential Research has proven to be the most consistent and reliable of all the pollsters.

    If ER moves on Monday (?) it will be difficult to see Labor winning from there.

  29. poroti@122. The maim problem with Tassie’s schools is a vicious circle of chronic underfunding leasing to poor education and poor discipline leading to parents keeping their kids at home, etc

    I don’t think most Tasmanians would be offended, but they would be puzzled as to how their schools are relevant to Bronnie’s arguments, as they would appear to be evidence against them!!

  30. wal kolla
    Posted Saturday, August 31, 2013 at 6:31 am | PERMALINK
    I predict a 54.8 to 45.2 result to the LNP

    ———–

    Is that with a margin of error 7% ?, to favour the coalition ?

  31. [quote]I’ve been saying for many months: Essential Research has proven to be the most consistent and reliable of all the pollsters.[/quote]

    And I’ve been laughing for just as long.

    I’m ignoring this morgan result. It’s disappointing to see them change methodology so suddenly.

  41. New2This:

    “The nightmare is nearly over…”
    —-

    You are right. Australia’s decades-long nightmare of economic growth is nearly at an end. Abbott will precipitate our first recession in more than 20 years. Take it from The Economist magazine (hardly a stronghold of left-wing luvvies).

    http://m.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/the-economist-backs-kevin-rudd-for-second-turn-20130830-2svda.html

    You have been warned by economic hard-heads who know what they’re talking about — Abbott’s austerity economics coupled with cash-splashes for million-dollar babies will bring about the first recession that anyone under 30 could remember. And it will be devastating for young and old alike.

    New2This is obviously too young and naive to know what a recession feels like. Well, strap in, young chum, because a PM Abbott will make you long for the good old days of the “nightmare” you are currently living through.

  42. Assume there is a list of names at Menzies House for baby sean to post under he is averaging one new one a day on PB Wonder what today’s will be? 😀

  45. feeney@128. So we should all hold our breath and wait for the ER numbers on Monday because until then Labor is in with a chance?

    Please don’t hog the bong, I feel like I’ve been waiting for hours!

    My view is that – regardless of what the ER poll says Labor will end up with no more than 57 seats. And X and the DLP guy will hold the balance of power in the Senate.

    I’m struggling to see how it would have been any worse under JG And, of course, if Kevin and his NSW Labor left-right fan club (Bowen, Fitzgibbon, Albanese, Cameron and all) had STFU and stayed loyal, Gillard might have done a while lot better than 57 seats.

    I think it’s extraordinary how Labor has been completely whiteanted by a combination of the dodgy brothers NSW right and the deeply socialistic NSW hard left. Hand-in-hand they go reaping havoc across the land, be it the granting of coal mine licences, playing musical chairs with Premiers, shady PR guys become millionaires on party funds for doing jobs once done just as well by volunteers and people on modest salaries, then -to cap it all off – Ruddstoration (with one of the aforementioned PR guys in the driver’s seat).

    And the end result? Libs set to be in power in NSW Parliament for a generation and now a crushing Federal defeat where Labor looks set to be wiped out of much of western Sydney.

    Cheers guys.

  46. My prediction sadly.

    Labor 49%, LIberals 51%. Liberals get control of the lower house, low 80 say 84.

    Liberals don’t even come close in the senate.
    Senate green vote up.
    Senate Liberal and Labor vote down.

    Enough Australians understand the system to do it, and it will happen.

  47. Aldente – If that is true, within a year Abbott could be the most unpopular PM since records began (making even Julia look popular). In that scenario, maybe a solid, but not overwhelming, Abbott win would be better for the ALP than Rudd scraping home, which is about the absolute best they could hope for now

  48. Morning all. A mixed bag in the media this morning. The Economist recommends Labor for superior economic management (correct) and the University of Canberra study proves the cost of living rose less under Gillard than under Howard. All good.

    But then we have another story about ICAC yesterday, reminding Sydney voters that both Labor ministers and a former union official were corrupt. Sigh. Enough own goals to let Adelaide FC beat Barcelona.

  49. I’m not feeling so optimistic now MB, although I’m pleased you still are. These latest polls added to what peopl on the central coast are saying now ( basically hearing a lot of news limited lines), make me think NSW is going to absorb any gains labor can make in Queensland before the seats in Tasmania and the seat in Victoria I have always thought would be lost come in to play. I can’t see labor getting above 70 now. I hope to be wrong, and I’ll be grateful for your usual pep talk.

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