James J relates that Newspoll has published two further aggregated marginal seats polls to join the survey of five Sydney seats published yesterday. One targets the four most marginal Labor seats in New South Wales outside Sydney – Dobell (5.1%), Robertson (1.0%), Page (4.2%) and Eden-Monaro (4.2%) – plus, somewhat messily, the Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith (UPDATE: It gets messier – the Dobell and Robertson component of the poll was conducted, and published, two weeks ago, while the remainder is new polling from the other three seats). The collective result is 53-47 to the Liberals, suggesting a swing of 7%. The primary votes are 48% for the Coalition and 36% for Labor. The other targets the three most marginal Labor seats in Victoria, Corangamite (0.3%), Deakin (0.6%) and La Trobe (1.7%), showing the Liberals with a 53-47 lead and suggesting a swing of about 4%. The primary votes are 34% for Labor and 47% for the Coalition. Each of the three has a sample of 800 and a margin of error of about 3.5%. The Australian’s display of all three seats of results including personal ratings and voter commitment numbers can be viewed here.
Also today:
• Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll, which among other things have Tony Abbott ahead of Kevin Rudd as preferred prime minister.
• JWS Research has some scattered looking automated phone poll results from various Labor seats which include one piece of good news for Labor – a 57.2-42.8 lead for Kevin Rudd in Griffith, for a swing against Labor of a little over 1% – together with a rather greater amount of bad news: Wayne Swan trailing 53.8-46.2 in Lilley (a 7% swing), Chris Bowen trailing 53.1-46.9 in McMahon (11%), Rob Mitchell trailing 54.7-45.3 in his seemingly safe Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen (14%), and Labor hanging on to a 50.6-49.4 lead in Bendigo (9%), to be vacated by the retirement of Steve Gibbons.
• The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.
UPDATE: Galaxy has a further two electorate-level automated poll results, showing the Liberal National Party well ahead in its Queensland marginals of Herbert (55-45) and Dawson (57-43).
the poobaggers are fighting back.
Blues on a role. Up to 77 v 54.
Evening all
Long but good afternoon doorknocking for the Tory Fighting DPM in the socialist republic of Grayndler.
Granted it is not particularly representative of the Australian electorate (almost EVERYONE here knows Abbott is a tool, and the only decision is whether Labor or Green is better placed for the planet) but it was interesting (1) how many people have yet to make up their minds and (2) how well received were a few facts on the Government’s record which you wont read in the Murdoch press
[Well kick into the National ALP Campaign as I have don on a number of occassions.]
I have.
Should be a poll tonight for Sunday papers.
[It’s the perception of calm that is enjoyed by a majority government that voters remember.]
Agree Dee. If I was advising Abbott(and God forbid) Id be telling him:
mate, dont kid yourself: you can still screw this up. Here is your ace.
CTaR1
Maybe she will be perfectly placed to catch the AGW wave while the rest of us are mired in the past.
BW
[ a bed of straw]
Not eating that!
Yes put your money into the national alp, it might still be funding Thommos legal case for all you know.
That would be blues on a roll. Dearie me.
Boerwar:
Yes, good thing I can’t see it.
I see that ESJ is back for some of his signature sneering cynicsim.
Guess have arrived. Ciao.
mari:
I remember those tweets of his. He and his little friends behaved like typical male chauvinist pigs.
Lizie 919
Was it the ALP or was it the government.
I think the governance structure of the ALP enabled this corruption. A system of patronage and caucus solidarity led to a “russian doll” model of power. Caucus decisions were binding in parliament but they were in turn determined by binding decisions of the Right which were determined by binding decisions of The Terrigals who were the recipients of patronage from Obeid and Tripodi. The government of the state led back to 1 man. This is inherently open to corruption if that person is corrupt.
Parties with less rigid factionalism would be less likely to end in this mess.
I am but a humble truth teller boer war. I hate to see well meaning people ripped off by spivs. And not cynicism I am finding the Alp death rattle highly amusing to watch.
lefty e
The inclusion of Dobell from 12/8 in the batch of marginal seats polled last week is proof positive that Newspoll are crook. I tried to blame The Australian but the graphic is from Newspoll.
Disgraceful crap, from a part owned Murdoch company, why am I surprised.
Calm and collected Ruddster.
Concise and precise.
RECORD LOW INTEREST RATES. If you like those, dont vote against them.
JOB SECURITY: does anyone really believe Abbott wont succumb to pressure for Dorkchoice mk2? Course they dont.
@william7424: “TheDailyTelegraph has been caught out spinning the details of a poll designed to sledge ALP’s NBN” http://t.co/FBaCtiDa0Y #auspol #ausvotes
rua: those NON-POLLS (call me old-fashioned,but where I come from polls are based or seats, states, or the nation) are KRAP.
lefty e @999
I don’t normally riff off typos but “Rudd needs to stay clam for the final week”.
Many would agree.
confessions:
I am the first to admit that I’m a bit testy on occasions. I get annoyed with this ongoing Gillard/Rudd/Gillard/Rudd crap.
I don’t hate Gillard. I never have. She was sucked in by people who should’ve known better. Their behaviour has left the party with deep scars which will take a long time to heal.
I long for the days of PM Rudd and DPM Gillard. They were such a good team. It makes me angry to think of what could have been if matters had been handled differently.
For my part, I’m just working my butt off every day for the party, and of course on election day.
Abbott and Murdoch make me sick!
CONFESSIONS 1014
I was alerted to them and never forgot the disgusting tweets he and his half dozen followers used to post, if I though anyone would take any notice would have reported him but knew people would know he was a nutcase 😀
Edward StJohn
Has anyone ever told you that you are a crashing bore? If not I will.
[Should be a poll tonight for Sunday papers.]
May be worth cutting up for the outside dunny if it is Murdoch related.
confessions
Glad you hear that!
Wheres Gillard??
[I don’t normally riff off typos but “Rudd needs to stay clam for the final week”.]
CC, that’s low mate! You went the typo :p
Apparently the NT government refused to let cameras into a GP super clinic in Darwin while the Labor campaign was up there.
http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=901755&vId=
I assume this is what News ltd had in mind for a free press when it campaigned strongly against the government’s media reforms?
feeney
I place myself in your category. Good post at 1022.
MTBW 1024
Ignore IT, needs oxygen so deprive IT of oxygen and you get a withered up little prune
Feeney – agree completely.
ruawake
becareful you might upset these so called polling experts and excuse you of making stuff up , telling the facts about newsltd and newspolll with dodgy polling technics
The jwhs polling was very similar to the style of newspoll , which i received
msri
OK! 👿
Holy crap The Blues are on a rampage.
accuse you of making stuff up , telling the facts about newsltd and newspolll with dodgy polling technics
Feeney 964
My understanding is that such a change in voting for leadership requires the approval of national conference which will not meet until 2014? Rudd proposed it and all the noddies nodded but it hasn’t happened and once Rudd is dispatched by either the electors or caucus it won’t.
Thanks Marrickville Mauler 1003 for pointing out why Labor will comfortably lose this election. Their policies and particularly those effected by former PMJG play very well to trendy inner city progressives but fare very badly with tradies, blue collars and generally those without a university degree.
See Guardian online today’s synopsis of why so many men have switched their allegiance this time around.
Good for you that the dreaded Tories ( whoever they are) are preference your hero Albo thereby keeping him in the parliament.
Best of luck though I do hope Albo wins he is one of Parliaments genuinely good guys.
No surrender!
COME ON.
I am mispelling lots of words I know but we are in the fight of our lives and we have a government to save.
MM @1003 – funny how Albo’s arse is going to be saved by those Tories.
And how many people have called you a silly old coot MTBW ?
We seen the media’s desperate agenda for newspoll and galaxy and neilson for the final week
@guytaur/1019
No surprise there.
Media, Murdoch, Papers, Polling…?
The pro coalition media will make sure labor will not be shown to be close in thier opinion polling.
They are relying on people to remain gullible to the media
[The inclusion of Dobell from 12/8 in the batch of marginal seats polled last week is proof positive that Newspoll are crook. I tried to blame The Australian but the graphic is from Newspoll.]
Weren’t the Labors brains trust saying… oh a week or so ago… that their girl, and HSU member Emma McBride going to win the seat easily??
It looks like Emma was helping to look after her HSU and Labor mate Craig Thomson when she was sitting on the Wyong Shire Council.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/successor-emma-mcbride-passed-up-censure-of-craig-thomson/story-fn9qr68y-1226693895561
Mates looking after mates.. that’s our Labor!
[Wheres Gillard??]
Why is it relevant, she is in SA, doing what she said.
More important where are Abbotts costed policies?
MTBW
Things are going well with the Griffith campaign – such a lot of volunteers.
I sense no feeling of anything particularly anti-Labor/Rudd.
In fact, we are all getting more excited as the election nears. I threw in another $50 online today – every bit counts, I guess. Others are throwing in much more.
It was mentioned before that the online donations to Labor have been unreal – just like during the Obama ’12 campaign.
Edward StJohn
None! Is that all you have got? Gee whiz you must have more than the monotonous put downs in your armour. Try thinking a little!
Sean wants Gillard out to cause more leadershit.
Just like others on PB.