James J relates that Newspoll has published two further aggregated marginal seats polls to join the survey of five Sydney seats published yesterday. One targets the four most marginal Labor seats in New South Wales outside Sydney – Dobell (5.1%), Robertson (1.0%), Page (4.2%) and Eden-Monaro (4.2%) – plus, somewhat messily, the Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith (UPDATE: It gets messier – the Dobell and Robertson component of the poll was conducted, and published, two weeks ago, while the remainder is new polling from the other three seats). The collective result is 53-47 to the Liberals, suggesting a swing of 7%. The primary votes are 48% for the Coalition and 36% for Labor. The other targets the three most marginal Labor seats in Victoria, Corangamite (0.3%), Deakin (0.6%) and La Trobe (1.7%), showing the Liberals with a 53-47 lead and suggesting a swing of about 4%. The primary votes are 34% for Labor and 47% for the Coalition. Each of the three has a sample of 800 and a margin of error of about 3.5%. The Australian’s display of all three seats of results including personal ratings and voter commitment numbers can be viewed here.
Also today:
• Morgan has a “multi-mode” poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday by phone and internet, which is different from the normal face-to-face, SMS and internet series it publishes every Sunday or Monday. The poll appears to have had a sample of 574 telephone respondents supplemented by 1025 online responses. The poll has the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred with respondent-allocated preferences (54-46 on 2010 preferences) from primary votes of 30.5% for Labor, 44% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Of the weighty 13.5% “others” component, Morgan informs us that the Palmer United Party has spiked to 4%. The Morgan release compares these figures directly with those in the weekly multi-mode result from Sunday night, but given the difference in method (and in particular the tendency of face-to-face polling to skew to Labor) I’m not sure how valid this is. Morgan also has personal ratings derived from the telephone component of the poll, which among other things have Tony Abbott ahead of Kevin Rudd as preferred prime minister.
• JWS Research has some scattered looking automated phone poll results from various Labor seats which include one piece of good news for Labor – a 57.2-42.8 lead for Kevin Rudd in Griffith, for a swing against Labor of a little over 1% – together with a rather greater amount of bad news: Wayne Swan trailing 53.8-46.2 in Lilley (a 7% swing), Chris Bowen trailing 53.1-46.9 in McMahon (11%), Rob Mitchell trailing 54.7-45.3 in his seemingly safe Melbourne fringe seat of McEwen (14%), and Labor hanging on to a 50.6-49.4 lead in Bendigo (9%), to be vacated by the retirement of Steve Gibbons.
• The latest Galaxy automated phone poll for The Advertiser targets Kate Ellis’s seat of Adelaide and gives Labor one of its better results from such polling, with Ellis leading her Liberal opponent 54-46. This suggests a swing to the Liberals of 3.5%. The samples in these polls have been about 550, with margins of error of about 4.2%.
UPDATE: Galaxy has a further two electorate-level automated poll results, showing the Liberal National Party well ahead in its Queensland marginals of Herbert (55-45) and Dawson (57-43).
Been out all day but had to run down the street to get some money out of the bank.
Young Libs were handing out flyers for Coleman the Lib candidate for Banks. A young man offered me a Liberal pamphlet and I said that I was sorry but could not vote for Abbott if my life depended on it.
I added that Coleman does not live in the electorate and is a Federal seat shopper it is his third try at getting a seat in the Federal Parliament. I also added that he works for Packer.
The young man told me that Coleman has promised to buy into the area if he wins and that he had already enrolled his children into local schools.
I said that Abbott was a shocker and the Libs would have done better if they had Turnbull as Leader and the young man agreed.
This afternoon on the car radio I heard that Rudd is saying that the Internal polling for Labor is better than the published polls. Thank you Rupert but maybe just maybe you have tried to be too smart by half.
Hang in there people we are not done with this campaign yet and a lot can happen in seven days.
That freo vs saints game seemed a bit sus. Someone must have cleaned up with the bookies. They started even odds.
Boerwar:
Yes!
[Is there a policy announcement Rudd could make tomorrow that might at the very least save some seats from going to Abbott?
Any ideas?]
Big move on 330-530pm childcare would shift votes. A bunch of them.
[Is there now any point in Rudd officially launching the Labor campaign tomorrow?]
Of course there is. NO BLIGHISM! Defeatism is doubly enrroneous in the context of this election, as many a punter will decide at the last minute “hang on… Tony Abbott is a PORK CHOP. ALP needs to be punishsed…but…just ….cant ….do it.”.
Many a punter.
Evan Parsons@934
No.
A policy announcement is not needed and if you think Labor is losing because it hasn’t announced enough policies and better policies then you are sadly mistaken.
People have, to some extent, lost faith in Labor’s ability to deliver on it’s policies and to provide stable government.
Something to inspire trust and faith is needed.
MTBW
Great post full of 🙂 feeling to me. So true about Murdoch over doing it with polls. Actions of candidates tell a different story as do online polls.
jenauthor@935
The corruption wasn’t hidden it was flaunted and it is of long standing.
This is not petty corruption, it is organised crime on a grand scale.
Abbott claiming it is a close election does not look convincing, at least to me.
Tone is a bad actor.
[ ALP had to squeeze as close to the election as possible because of lack of funds.]
This is really funny. The Libs are being well and truly outspent by the ALP because the ALP are getting over $100,000 a week in online donations. Over half a million dollars so far with a week to go.
Oh and the LNP in Qld have refused to give any funds to the Federal Liberal Party campaign. They have funded their own candidates outside the overall campaign. (wasting money in Petrie for instance).
guytaur
That is good but the real issue, IMHO, is that the main players, their hangers on, their rentseekers, the MSM, MSM hacks, MSM owners, and so on and so forth are all well into ‘Whatever It Takes’. It is a pervasive ethical rot which means that we have otherwise decent people are trying to turn black into white, and bad into good.
Fukuyama, having failed to predict the end of history, is now predicting the end of democracy. He reckons that it is because the middle class is going, going, gone. There may be a bit in that. But there are other drivers. People have yet to get their brains, rather than their emotions, around the impact of social media on their behaviour and their thought patterns. Rather than opening up information flows, social media seems to be tribalizing information flows. Folk who are interested in mind control are working out all sorts of ways of using the social media for anti-social purposes.
Plus, as someone was writing just the other day, ‘shame’ seems to be dying. For example, neither Abbott nor Rudd seems to be the least little bit ashamed of their serial lying.
mexicanbeemer @929
I have to agree completely.
Mrs Cranks family are heavily Union/ALP and Father-In-law was an ALP Cabinet Minister – all very nice people and know my and mrs Crank’s political persuasion. Junior Crank’s God Father is a union Organiser who we regularly socialise and holiday with – able to have robust political debate without animosity or personal abuse.
Oh yes, and many a Murdoch sponsored poll will be shown to be complete rubbish come Sept 7.
Read that article I posted earlier from Hartcher.
Punters loathe Abbott. Its just that they hate Rudd too, and brand LNP still has some nostalgic value, which 3 years of Abbott will no doubt destroy completely.
Could be a new ball game in 2016 – and I mean profoundly new.
davidwh@937
There are financial reasons why both parties have their campaign ‘launch’ toward the end of the campaign. IIRC, once the campaign launch has been held, the taxpayer no longer pays for travel and other expenses.
briefly @ 797
Your ignorance and hatred knows no bounds.
Under the new rules introduced by PMKR, after an election, the incumbent Leader must stand down and the leadership is thrown open to a vote of MPs (50%) and Labor branch members (50%), for the first time.
There may be a provision that, in the event of a win, this is not done.
Bemused may be able to clarify this for me.
pithicus
Freo rested around half its team and then announced two more late withdrawals. It makes tactical sense for Freo to do so because it will have to play Geelong at Simonds Stadium next weekend and today was a dead rubber. OTOH, the Sainters were farewelling three people who have given much to the club: Blake, Koschitski and Milne, so they had some motivation to finish the year well.
It was nice to see Lyon go out of his way to give his three erstwhile players a hug.
[Could be a new ball game in 2016 – and I mean profoundly new.]
Don’t throw in the towel too lefty.
Soon Meguire will be the only one left.
Feeney
What is your gut feel for Labor in Griffith?
“”Is there a policy announcement Rudd could make tomorrow that might at the very least save some seats from going to Abbott?
Any ideas?
I keep saying this but nobody listens!.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgjGWYZSVUA
bw
The problems are for two reasons. The whole Alvin Toffler “third wave” effect and AGW happening at the same time.
Godfrey’s is flogging a robot for $99.
We have not changed society to cope with either change. This of course means the worst ways will happen with spivs etc.
Fess
Oh, all right then. Port cleaning up the Blues.
Boerwar
Yes I realise those facts but Freo didn’t try at all!
feeney:
For someone who loves to accuse others of hatred you sure post a lot of it yourself.
Take a few deep breaths and calm down. Not everything is as black and white as you seem to perceive.
pithicus
Meguire is not the only one left – there are a few of us here!
rua
In “my” electorate, there has been no mailing and no corflutes, except from the Libs. No spending at all, it seems.
pithicus
I was wondering whether removing a dozen or so A players from any of the top four clubs would bring them down to bottom four status.
It is a hypothetical, but it does rather look as if there is not a whole lot between a top team and a bottom team.
1934pc
I listen. There is still time. And given that apparently a large proportion of the population are ignorant to that footage, it would seem to be a good move.
1934pc
I don’t know what policy issue Rudd could do but I would be blasting the hell out of Abbott. The man is a moron.
guytaur
I hadn’t realized that Toffler is the guy who is making all this trouble for the rest of us.
@markwillacy: My TV story on Japan’s ultra hi-tech phone-operated toilet. But can it be hacked into? The rise of the latrines! http://t.co/pBodiONLTk
Now a few people will be anxious going to the toilet.
Why are both Port and the Blues wearing black and white jerseys? You have to keep an eye on their shorts to follow who is what.
[In “my” electorate, there has been no mailing and no corflutes, except from the Libs. No spending at all, it seems.]
This is my third election in this seat, and the first where there has been no Labor paraphernalia at all. None.
What’s more the Labor candidate has done no campaigning here at all.
It speaks volumes about the need for maximum Labor resources to be deployed elsewhere.
BW – Fmd. Politics? The tomatoes are the real war.
One of my nieces has been digging holes at my place today and plans to plant tomorrow.
Way too early, I think.
Nice northern facing courtyard so we’ll see how she goes.
MTBW
Funny how people working on the campaigns have different views from those sitting on their office chairs reading crap.
Boerwar:
They aren’t even showing the Port/Blues match here, so I don’t know what jumpers we’re wearing.
Too right MTBW.
The ALP is well behind, make no mistake: national poll averages are reliable.
The question is: which are most reliable?
And above all: I would not give you tuppence for those shifty multi-seat polls, not broken down into seats, focussed only on ALP marginals. Theyve been creating a narrative. Not f&%!*ng tuppence.
Two points that will make this closer than it seems now:
1. 18-24s have not been polled well this time. Technology has moved on,and polling hasnt. This is the reckoning election for a new way.
2. QLD – I wouldnt trust the 2PPs we’ve seen further than I could roll Nambour’s big pineapple. I was there in ’98, and I was writing on QLD politics: the polllsters cant do 2PPs with a minor party rising; not for shit. They will be wRONg. Nothing surer. What direction wrong, thats a different matter. Could even be better for LNP, Im not saying they wont be.Im just saying theyll be wRONg.
I’ve hardly seen any advertising stuff in Member for Bowen (LNP Andrew Laming).
confessions
[This is my third election in this seat, and the first where there has been no Labor paraphernalia at all. None.]
Well kick into the National ALP Campaign as I have don on a number of occassions.
CONFESSIONS 948
Just like on Twitter re Evan and JG, and then used to call himself Thornleigh Labor man as I pointed out the other day. He disappeared for a few days now back the hide of a Rhino these LNP people
CTaR1
Reckless tomato planting on the North-side!!!
I have, in past seasons, tried manfully to bring tomatoes on early by planting them early and providing them with little frost hats made from Murdoch’s corrupt lie-sheets. They might as well do something useful. In normal years you might get tomatoes a week early. In abnormal years, you are a-swim with tomatoes and can gloat at the other growers’ tomato penury.
Winners, as they say, are grinners.
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=image+tomato+throwing+spain&client=firefox-a&hs=r3h&rls=org.mozilla:en-GB:official&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=_6ghUvvkHeuSiAeG04DYBw&ved=0CDwQsAQ&biw=1024&bih=531
{Griffith etc]
Oh please, This aint Bennelong 07. Rudd will massacre Glasson.
Will Rudd even go to prefs: there’s a more exciting question.
rua
Love your style and yours too lefty e!
Never give up you will often find that the electorate are not as dumb as some people think.
[and brand LNP still has some nostalgic value, which 3 years of Abbott will no doubt destroy completely.]
It’s the perception of calm that is enjoyed by a majority government that voters remember.
POK
re self funded retirees, I am one and am amazed at what you say. You are going to be happy helping fund Abbott’s PPL etc? Just think please
Fess
77 v 41. Just as well you can’t see it.
Whoops! 77 v 47. Blues creeping into competitiveness.
Lol MTBW your posts are very funny.
feeney@964
That accords with my understanding.
CTaR1
I recommend ripe chook ordure laced with lime on a bed of straw, drizzled with sky juice.
Rudd needs tostay clam for the final week.
Speak slowly Ruddster. Messagee sharp. Calm and collected.
THE ECONOMY IS ON YOUR SIDE.
Go record low interest rates, job security.
Molto punters arent gonna put their tackle in a blender once its down to brass tacks.
A LOT of votes to be turned this week.
BW – I think, also, that she is very optimistic.
But the courtyard has high brick walls and faces direct North.
I guess we’ll find out.