GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has electorate-level polls from 10 marginal seats in New South Wales and Victoria, collectively painting a grim picture for Labor. There is also a Newspoll survey of 502 respondents showing Peter Beattie trailing by 54-46 in Forde (a swing to the Liberal National Party of about 2%), from primary votes of 38% for Labor (37.4% at the 2010 election), 48% for the Coalition (44.1%) and 5% for the Greens (12.2%). The Galaxy poll has apparently targeted 550 to 600 respondents per electorate for a margin of error of 4%. (UPDATE: These turn out to be automated polls, and not live interviewer polls like Galaxy normally does.)
In the Sydney seats:
Lindsay. A 54-46 lead to the Liberals, a swing of about 5%.
Banks. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 3.5%.
Werriwa. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 9%.
Reid. A 53-47 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 6%.
Greenway. A 51-49 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 2%.
Parramatta. 50-50, a swing of about 5.5%.
Barton. Labor ahead 52-48, a swing of 5%.
In Victoria:
La Trobe. The Liberals lead 51-49, a swing of 3%, from primary votes of 36% for Labor and 45% for the Liberals.
Corangamite. The Liberals lead 56-44, a swing of slightly over 6%.
Chisholm. Labor leads 52-48, a Liberal swing of 4%.
Today also brought a Lonergan automated poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which remarkably showed him trailing Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson 52-48 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). Either in anticipation of or in reaction to the inevitably skeptical response, the company’s principal Chris Lonergan penned a rather informative piece on methodology for The Guardian.
UPDATE: The bit below has been amended to account for the fact that the Galaxy polls were automated, which means there is actually very little basis for comparing automated and live interview electorate polls.
Which makes this a timely juncture to consider how polling of various kinds has performed during the campaign. The table below shows the number of polls conducted for each pollster and poll method together with the average Labor swing, at both electorate and national level. There follows, for your convenience, basic results for every electorate-level poll of the campaign barring a small number which did not involve Labor-versus-Coalition contest, together with the swings – not a single one of which is in Labor’s favour, emphasising the point that electorate-level has been much worse for Labor than national polling. However, since nearly all of this polling has mostly been of the automated phone variety, the question arises of whether this it to do with polling method, the particular challenges of electorate-level polling, or the peculiarities of the electorates being polled.
The only live interview electorate polls featured have been two from Newspoll, which makes their performance relative to automated phone polls hard to compare. However, there is a very large gap of 4.3% between national and electorate polls for automated pollsters. Non-phone methods, which have only been employed at national level, appear to have been more favourable for Labor, although there haven’t been very many of them (note that the two-party result being used from Morgan is the previous-election measure).
ELECTORATE POLLS # Swing Galaxy 10 5.1 ReachTEL 8 7.25 JWS Research 8 6 Lonergan 3 11.3 AUTOMATED 29 6.6 Newspoll (live interviewer) 2 4.5 TOTAL 31 6.5 NATIONAL POLLS # Swing Newspoll 2 3 Nielsen 1 2 Galaxy 2 1.5 LIVE INTERVIEW 6 2.2 ReachTEL 2 2.5 Lonergan 1 2 AUTOMATED 3 2.3 Essential 2 0 AMR Research 1 0 ONLINE 3 0 Morgan Multi-Mode 2 1.75 TOTAL 13 1.7 ELECTORATE POLL RESULTS Sample ALP Swing Griffith Lonergan 21/08/2013 958 48 10 Werriwa Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 9 Reid Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 47 6 Parramatta Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 50 4 Lindsay Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 46 5 La Trobe Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 3 Greenway Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 2 Forde Newspoll 20/08/2013 502 46 2 Corangamite Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 44 6 Chisholm Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 8 Barton Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 52 5 Banks Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 3 McMahon ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 47 11 Macquarie JWS Research 15/08/2013 710 45 4 Lindsay JWS Research 15/08/2013 578 39 12 Kingsford Smith ReachTEL 15/08/2013 610 48 7 Greenway JWS Research 15/08/2013 570 51 0 Forde Lonergan 15/08/2013 568 40 9 Forde JWS Research 15/08/2013 1160 40 9 Deakin ReachTEL 15/08/2013 619 47 4 Corangamite ReachTEL 15/08/2013 633 44 7 Corangamite JWS Research 15/08/2013 587 47 4 Brisbane JWS Research 15/08/2013 607 46 3 Blaxland ReachTEL 15/08/2013 636 52 10 Bennelong ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 35 12 Banks JWS Research 15/08/2013 542 47 4 Aston JWS Research 15/08/2013 577 37 12 Lindsay Lonergan 14/08/2013 1038 36 15 Dobell/RobertsonNewspoll 11/08/2013 505 46 7 Forde ReachTEL 08/08/2013 725 46 3 Griffith ReachTEL 05/08/2013 702 46 4
CC
How can you give your vote to the stark raving mad party??
Kinkajou
{not even Orange Roughie]
I thought he was a Bronco’s player.
@CC/849
“Lefty Head Exploding” cute words.
Not.
Good post on Manning and war crimes above BW …
Interesting that we actually don’t know how Rudd or Abbott are doing at the moment. Marginal polls have proven unreliable, and the most recent national TPPs we have are from the weekend, which average at 48-52 TPP in Coalition’s favour, with the most recent of those polls showing 50-50 TPP. And I think we can all agree it’s been an eventful week, so would expect to see some movement in this weekend’s polls, especially as more people are starting to pay some attention to the campaigns.
Another reason not to worry too much about the marginal polls – Possum has often stated that if the TPP is 51-49 or 52-48, the swings will come from somewhere, and some will come as a surprise. Only in a very close contest will detailed marginal polling be relevant to the final result.
Anthony Albanese @AlboMP 2m
Coalition has really jumped the shark with their boat upgrade policy today #boatbuyback
“Don’t worry about the marginal polling”
Utter folly.
“We don’t really know where Rudd and Abbott are at”
Utter folly.
Victoria
[As I asked earlier, what possessed them to announce this brain fart. If the polls are to be believed, they are going to romp home. Was there any need for them to announce this joke?]
Now we know why the Coalition have been reluctant to release their policies. 😀
“”So if I were in charge of ALP advertising, here’s the ad I’d be running from this evening until blackout:””
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgjGWYZSVUA
victoria – no party is perfect.
To call the Liberals or the Coalition stark raving mad is a bit of hyperbowl, don’t you think?
@CC/860
Really “Stark Raving Mad” a hyper-bowl?
Mad Katter rings a bell?
Hypocrisy on PB is again….. Insane.
What is utter folly is to believe every poll you see ATM.
Thats very good 1934c
Polls can change very quickly during a campaign. Especially in the later weeks as some people are only beginning to consider the parties and candidates. If people start reaching the conclusion that Abbott’s just not ready yet, expect to see significant loss of voter support. Otherwise, things may remain much the same from here on.
Well CC reckons the Libs latest AS BS is just that, BS.
CC
[To call the Liberals or the Coalition stark raving mad ]
They’re in the original ‘Ripe Tomatoe’s’ Party territory on boats at the moment.
A few more days and ‘stark raving mad’ is possible.
1934pc
Whilst this video illustrates Abbott the bullyboy. I would prefer that the voters did not reflect on the minority govt of the past three years during the election campaign
Personally, it was a very productive three years in which Labor ought be proud. But in the minds of the voters, it was seen as an undesirable situation.
Even Compact Crank reckons SHOP THE BOATS is a dud.
Compact
Surely this announcement today by Scoot has given them the honour of stark raving mad
[Compact Crank
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 4:37 pm | Permalink
victoria – no party is perfect.
To call the Liberals or the Coalition stark raving mad is a bit of hyperbowl, don’t you think?]
Not really, we are yet to find out if the whole country has gone that way.
[But surely this boats buy back is a bridge too far??]
Its a pathetic attempt to get boats back in the headlines, it shows it is not working for the Libs as they hoped it would.
As usual some people have to find a parallel with the Labor government. The best they can come up with is Julia Gillard’s (just to further demonise her)”cash for clunkers”. At least that idea tried to help Australians and above all did not interfere with the government of another country.
Was Rudd sleep walking last night and punched the wall? Where did the cut on his knuckle come from?
ruawake
Very perceptive.
The strange thing is the Liberals are supposed to be way ahead in the polls and Abbott comes out with gold senior card version 3, (version 2 was Rudd with tax break for companies with a post office box on the NT boarder).
Well whatever the reason for today’s announcement it did give us all some fun for a while.
The Indonesian boat builders have expanded already. Now that is capitalism at work!
http://boatbuildingindonesia.com/
So now we have to find out where a cut occurred? Are we serious?
@Gauss/873
Can you like stick to duped policies, and not political sniping right?
davidwh
Fun for a while. I reckon this could sustain me during the rest of the campaign. Hopefully the voters are not stark raving mad as well
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham 26m
Mercury @ReachTEL Tas state/federal analysis will appear at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/ Sat 9am FED Sun 9am STATE #politas #auspol #ausvotes
Retweeted by ReachTEL
Fran has a good idea, own and lease the boats to the village fisherman would be more cost effective than a boat buy back.
The cash for clunkers might have been a good idea some 20 years ago when we had a lot more old polluting cars on the road.
Looks like we will get plenty of polling this weekend as well.
Oh FFS!
An article on a cut knuckle?
Kidding right???
If the Libs win it will be fun watching them trying to make shop the boats work.
What was the colour of his blood?
Someone on Twitter suggested starting a business for arranging novated leases for Indonesian fishing boats. Trouble is Bowen would tax it and spoil the model.
Scoot will be making offers on water-wings and flippers at a strategically planned time during the campaign.
After that baths.
CC
[To call the Liberals or the Coalition stark raving mad is a bit of hyperbowl, don’t you think?]
Well this is an election period. A bit of hyperbowl is par for the course. Your side’s claim that JG was the worst PM in history or some such was plainly in that category.
Clearly though, this policy is a piece of monumental folly, even by coalition standards. It’s also hard to imagine what the rationale for announcing it now could have been.
After all, you think you’re winning right? As a general rule you only change the game when you think you might be lose if you don’t.
mexicanbeemer
[The cash for clunkers might have been a good idea some 20 years ago when we had a lot more old polluting cars on the road.]
Cutting pollution was just bunting. The aim was, as in America’s cash for clunkers, to boost sales of new cars in the wake of the GFC. How successful it was at that I do not have a clue.
Car sales have generally been okay although sadly for the Australian car industry the biggest selling vehicles are imported
Fran, it’s all part of some clever plan. Generate a lot of noise so they can sneak something else through. Or get Labor to spend all their ammunition attacking an easily sacrificed tail end of a policy.
mexicanbeemer
[….the biggest selling vehicles are imported]
The cunning plan’s Achilles heel .
[When asked where the injury came from he stumbled over his answer.]
Shorter media: we are all lightweights.
I’d also like to see ALP members attacking disunity of the coalition over support for PPL. This is a big weakness that’s started to open up over the last couple of days. Of course, it opens up the ALP to similar counterclaims, but they’ve been remarkably disciplined since Rudd took over, and during the campaign. A favourite trick of Howard’s was to use turn your weakness into a strength – something similar could be very effective here.
Yeah: the Nats don’t support PPL.
Why has no journo brought this up with Abbott?
MB
[although sadly for the Australian car industry the biggest selling vehicles are imported]
And the driving of them tells why.
Dear Mr Abbott if we have five children, that is $75,000 * 5, can I have one of these instead of the cash.
http://boatbuildingindonesia.com/26-meter-sailing-boat-for-sale.html
Looks nice and I can buy it for a lazy 300,000 euro.
Yoyoma Bones
Is that Yoyoma as in ….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZn_VBgkPNY
In fact, it would be especially good for the ALP if the libs did attack them on party disunity. This would in turn remind people that Rudd is now back in control of the party, and play right into his anti-politics tactics that have been so effective in the past (yet strangely absent this campaign).