Galaxy marginals polling

Polls from 11 seats across three states paint a broad picture of Labor losing office on the back of swings averaging 4.6%. Also, a head-to-head analysis of various pollsters and poll methods throughout the campaign.

GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has electorate-level polls from 10 marginal seats in New South Wales and Victoria, collectively painting a grim picture for Labor. There is also a Newspoll survey of 502 respondents showing Peter Beattie trailing by 54-46 in Forde (a swing to the Liberal National Party of about 2%), from primary votes of 38% for Labor (37.4% at the 2010 election), 48% for the Coalition (44.1%) and 5% for the Greens (12.2%). The Galaxy poll has apparently targeted 550 to 600 respondents per electorate for a margin of error of 4%. (UPDATE: These turn out to be automated polls, and not live interviewer polls like Galaxy normally does.)

In the Sydney seats:

Lindsay. A 54-46 lead to the Liberals, a swing of about 5%.

Banks. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 3.5%.

Werriwa. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 9%.

Reid. A 53-47 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 6%.

Greenway. A 51-49 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 2%.

Parramatta. 50-50, a swing of about 5.5%.

Barton. Labor ahead 52-48, a swing of 5%.

In Victoria:

La Trobe. The Liberals lead 51-49, a swing of 3%, from primary votes of 36% for Labor and 45% for the Liberals.

Corangamite. The Liberals lead 56-44, a swing of slightly over 6%.

Chisholm. Labor leads 52-48, a Liberal swing of 4%.

Today also brought a Lonergan automated poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which remarkably showed him trailing Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson 52-48 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). Either in anticipation of or in reaction to the inevitably skeptical response, the company’s principal Chris Lonergan penned a rather informative piece on methodology for The Guardian.

UPDATE: The bit below has been amended to account for the fact that the Galaxy polls were automated, which means there is actually very little basis for comparing automated and live interview electorate polls.

Which makes this a timely juncture to consider how polling of various kinds has performed during the campaign. The table below shows the number of polls conducted for each pollster and poll method together with the average Labor swing, at both electorate and national level. There follows, for your convenience, basic results for every electorate-level poll of the campaign barring a small number which did not involve Labor-versus-Coalition contest, together with the swings – not a single one of which is in Labor’s favour, emphasising the point that electorate-level has been much worse for Labor than national polling. However, since nearly all of this polling has mostly been of the automated phone variety, the question arises of whether this it to do with polling method, the particular challenges of electorate-level polling, or the peculiarities of the electorates being polled.

The only live interview electorate polls featured have been two from Newspoll, which makes their performance relative to automated phone polls hard to compare. However, there is a very large gap of 4.3% between national and electorate polls for automated pollsters. Non-phone methods, which have only been employed at national level, appear to have been more favourable for Labor, although there haven’t been very many of them (note that the two-party result being used from Morgan is the previous-election measure).

ELECTORATE POLLS					#	Swing
Galaxy							10	5.1
ReachTEL						8	7.25
JWS Research						8	6
Lonergan						3	11.3
AUTOMATED						29	6.6
Newspoll (live interviewer)				2	4.5
TOTAL							31	6.5
					
NATIONAL POLLS					        #	Swing
Newspoll						2	3
Nielsen							1	2
Galaxy							2	1.5
LIVE INTERVIEW						6	2.2
ReachTEL						2	2.5
Lonergan						1	2
AUTOMATED						3	2.3
Essential						2	0
AMR Research						1	0
ONLINE							3	0
Morgan Multi-Mode					2	1.75
TOTAL							13	1.7

ELECTORATE POLL RESULTS				Sample	ALP	Swing
Griffith	Lonergan	21/08/2013	958	48	10
Werriwa		Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	48	9
Reid		Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	47	6
Parramatta	Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	50	4
Lindsay		Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	46	5
La Trobe	Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	49	3
Greenway	Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	49	2
Forde		Newspoll	20/08/2013	502	46	2
Corangamite	Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	44	6
Chisholm	Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	48	8
Barton		Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	52	5
Banks		Galaxy		20/08/2013	575	48	3
McMahon		ReachTEL	15/08/2013	631	47	11
Macquarie	JWS Research	15/08/2013	710	45	4
Lindsay		JWS Research	15/08/2013	578	39	12
Kingsford Smith	ReachTEL	15/08/2013	610	48	7
Greenway	JWS Research	15/08/2013	570	51	0
Forde		Lonergan	15/08/2013	568	40	9
Forde		JWS Research	15/08/2013	1160	40	9
Deakin		ReachTEL	15/08/2013	619	47	4
Corangamite	ReachTEL	15/08/2013	633	44	7
Corangamite	JWS Research	15/08/2013	587	47	4
Brisbane	JWS Research	15/08/2013	607	46	3
Blaxland	ReachTEL	15/08/2013	636	52	10
Bennelong	ReachTEL	15/08/2013	631	35	12
Banks		JWS Research	15/08/2013	542	47	4
Aston		JWS Research	15/08/2013	577	37	12
Lindsay		Lonergan	14/08/2013	1038	36	15
Dobell/RobertsonNewspoll	11/08/2013	505	46	7
Forde		ReachTEL	08/08/2013	725	46	3
Griffith	ReachTEL	05/08/2013	702	46	4

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

952 comments on “Galaxy marginals polling”

  1. DN

    [Fran, it’s all part of some clever plan. Generate a lot of noise so they can sneak something else through. Or get Labor to spend all their ammunition attacking an easily sacrificed tail end of a policy.]

    Or perhaps buy themselves a few more days in which fewer people will press them on those costings or PPL.

    I’m not sure this will be a cost-free PR exercise however. This makes them look rattled and foolish all at once. The claim that they spent 12 months on this is astonishing and damning all at once.

    One might well ask, just to frustrate the above rationale — so the shop the boats plan is fully costed is it? How much? Why does it not appear in “real solutions”? Should Jaymes Diaz have known about it? Does Saul Eslake know about it?

  2. To all those people talking about voters changing their minds in the last week of the campaign, please remember what the polls are saying. Take the essential poll as an example (a lefty poll, but it will do)

    According to essential research –
    – 15% Lib/Nat voters may change their minds
    – 22% Labor voters may change their minds
    – 36% Green supporters may change their minds
    – 46% other voters may change their minds

    So, when talking about people changing their minds in the last week of the campaign, you should keep in mind that the Coalition are the party with the fewest number of ‘swinging’ voters.

  3. frednk

    [Looks nice and I can buy it for a lazy 300,000 euro.]

    A sauna and a Weber on the back deck thrown in courtesy of the Australian Government.

    Perfect.

  4. Fran

    [After all, you think you’re winning right? As a general rule you only change the game when you think you might be lose if you don’t.]

    The Coalition were under pressure to release some policies.

    Trouble is, they are too scared to reveal their policies.

    This looks to me like flagging a false policy.

    Silly enough to make the punters laugh but not threatening enough to scare the punters away.

    We’ll see if the Coalition can pull it off!

  5. poroti – The spa is essential for the upper class on their way to Christmas Island.

    A bit of couth is required before you get on the Navy vessel.

  6. GC
    [Nielsen prediction 47-53]
    Based on what? Purely based on my gut it’ll be a bit better namely 46-54 like News or maybe even 45-55.

  7. Nice to see Christians with a sense of humour – and one that punches!

    [Gosford Anglican Church strikes again! #auspol pic.twitter.com/KsWTul7cJV ]

  8. At Pre-Poll in Fairfax today, local Lib HTV hander outer says Brough in so much trouble he is paying people to babysit corflutes on major roads.

    Doing a runner when the local laws council guys turn up.
    (Signs are not allowed on public land in SCRC area).

  9. [quote]Based on what? Purely based on my gut it’ll be a bit better namely 46-54 like News or maybe even 45-55.[/quote]

    That’s a bit too unrealistic, mate. Just be happy to see any sort of improvement for Abbott.

  10. [I think ‘Cash for Boats’ will a one or two day wonder then quietly sink from view, never to be mentioned again.]

    Interesting that Bill Shorten compared the policy to ‘cash for clunkers’ – nothing like a government dissing its own ‘policy’ from the previous election …

    I thought that the Coalition PPL scheme would sink into the slime after the 2010 election and never be seen again … but I was wrong …

  11. [quote]Remember the Neilsen the night before the 2007 election before people get a hard on.[/quote]

    Remember the newspoll the night before the last election 😀

  12. The Indonesian Boat Upgrade program was presumably designed by the same economists as the Pay Polluters Regardless climate program.

    Unbelievable.

  13. [Within a year of the change of government in 1996, the ABC Board ordered the industrial ‘execution’ of 1,000 staff as the Howard government dishonoured its election commitment and cut $11 million to operational base funding immediately and $55 million for the triennium starting 97-98.

    Instead of simply apologising that the cuts were necessary to staunch ‘Beazley’s black hole’, as they called it, and that funding would be restored as the budget allowed, the government started a campaign of vilification of public broadcasters with the help of an intimidating and self-righteous Murdoch press.

    To those of us suffering survivor guilt as we attended seemingly endless farewells for traumatised colleagues made to walk the redundancy plank, the cuts were ideological and punitive. The grief, distress, anguish and pain went on for years afterwards.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-22/dempster-the-future-of-public-broadcasting/4902904

  14. CTar1

    [A bit of couth is required before you get on the Navy vessel.]
    Be veeery careful about the navy vessels. I did a lot of fuel testing on the patrol boats up that way. There were much water in fuel problems whenever they moved in to tropical regions.
    We had crazy results like there being more water after the fuel went through the dewatering system than before !!. Water in the fuel system was killing the engines. German engine builders blamed ‘Strayan sailors for “operator error” and from stuff I have seen since they were very likely right.

    My russkiy boss at the time ,former Russian navy, could not stop laughing for weeks after being invited on to the base to look at the boats due to his expertise in the area.

    Oh and he recommended that Australia invade eastern Russia a week or so in to the new year. By then all the Russian forces have been drunk for two weeks. Apparently that is the usual way to celebrate the new year.

  15. I thought that the Coalition PPL scheme would sink into the slime after the 2010 election and never be seen again …

    So did I. I’m still half expecting it to be ‘deferred’. It doesn’t start until 1/7/2015 so hopefully that means never.

  16. [quote]Labor’s primary support, at just 35 per cent, is down 2 points since the last Fairfax-Nielsen poll on August 8, whereas the Coalition has improved its primary or first preference support by 1 point to register 47 per cent[/quote]

  17. Yep when abbott is in trouble

    the pro coalition media tries to get help him out , wiht the media drvien polls

    which are a farce

  18. poroti

    [German engine builders blamed ‘Strayan sailors for “operator error” and from stuff I have seen since they were very likely right.]

    Patrol boats can be a funny environment.

    I remember an Attack Class one being in deep shit for having serious damage done to it after backing over a fishing net.

    The serious part was that it was towing the net.

  19. Yoyoma Bones@823

    Compact Crank @ 812 – Actually I don’t think Gillard should have been elected PM in 2010 – it should have been Rudd

    Where were you when the argument raged against the Gillard cult?

  20. ruawake
    Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 5:44 pm | PERMALINK
    Isn’t 53-47 an improvement on Newspoll.

    ————

    its the poll , the poll

    which the pro coalition media needs to take the focus off abbott bad week and his boat buy back plan

  21. From the Fairfax link ..

    [The slow but steady rate of drift from Labor towards the Coalition raises the prospect of an Abbott-led landslide in 2013]

    The drift I can agree with but the jury well and truly still out on it being landslide territory.

  22. rua

    Are you around? I need help in sending a music link to my sister for Mum’s funeral and wonder if you can tell me how to do it!

  23. [which the pro coalition media needs to take the focus off abbott bad week and his boat buy back plan]

    Has Abbott had a bad week? Has Rudd had a good week? All a bit so-so actually.

  24. At 1% drift a week we’ll get to 45/55 on polling day = “Gillard territory”. So it was all in vain: the hate, the loss of heartland, the backflips on AS, the knifings, the loss of key caucus members, the deal with the devil Greens. Once, was a great Party whereas now the shindig at Gillard’s joint on Sat evening 7/9 will be a better party.

  25. Newsltd/abbott coalition , pro coallition media , coalition supporters and so called polling analsis will have a lot of explaining to do when,

    If the coalition doesnt get into government after september 7th

  26. [quote]If the coalition doesnt get into government after september 7th[/quote]

    I honestly cannot wait to see your reaction on the 7th.

  27. unless the poll is our way don’t believe it

    I don’t think aust, are that dumb and stupid

    or is it only intelligent people vote alp

    of course u can still have degree and just not be informed

    or so rusted on the brain cannot comprehend the days since meinzies who no doubt would be turning over in his grave,

  28. I wonder how many lib members at this time being so busy

    get an personal thanyou email,

    well I just did from Julie Collins

  29. do u know why I dislike this place and have only for getting out information
    to people who read
    its the people that predict polls in posts and elsewhere

    some people don’t like Russian roulette and I am one of them
    glory is always at it
    cannot any one ever predict a nice one no because we know there little games

    I scroll by to read but see them unfortunately

    do u all find it necessary to do that

    all so I doubt very much if mr bowe understand labor passion for our country
    polling seems a game to to professionals with respect

    to us it our life in danger and our democracy hanging by thread and also the care of people’
    the libs care nothing for people just themselves
    the DYSLEXIA POLICY bill shorten put out to day
    the ndis, the medic are the PBS all used by liberals nbn

    I wish I could lock liberals out of the things like medi care and PBS lib, voters never voted for these wonderful institutions in our country but they use them
    DONT U

    no liberal gov, would do that, and pyne never even turned up the education forum
    for god sake education is the basis of society and they don’t care abbott is obsessed with boats,

    I still here the liberal senator in 1981 ( and I was telling Julie}
    get a job job,

    three children under 9 6 week old baby int, 14 percent,

    I never forgive them

  30. https://www.facebook.com/AustralianUnions?hc_location=stream

    have noticed over at the Liberal Party Facebook page that they have a fun Friday afternoon regular post called “Flashback Friday!”.

    They post retro pictures of Tony Abbott showing what a fun guy he is in black and white. However, there are plenty of moments in Abbott’s history that don’t seem to ever get a run.

    So we thought we’d post them here to make sure there is a well rounded picture of Abbott’s history!

    =========================================================

    please read flashback Friday above and remember some of his slogans

    there is one about picking up rubbish,, yes u and I in

    in ordinary circumsances end up picking up tonys rubbish,
    ================================================

    now I bet I know where this comes from [catholic primary school]

    one thing that horrified me about my own education looking back
    ( suppose we could not afford cleaners at the schools never saw any}
    it was you girls

    can pick up rubbish in your lunch hour for that
    { what ever that was}
    so tony must be still carrying this over from primary school I would say

    I look back on that time I took for granted little girls out there picking up other people lollies and penny sticks left overs, mouldy sandwiches,, and old paper wrappings and worse,

    then back to school

    so is this where this picking up rubbish is coming from???

    read it

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