GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has electorate-level polls from 10 marginal seats in New South Wales and Victoria, collectively painting a grim picture for Labor. There is also a Newspoll survey of 502 respondents showing Peter Beattie trailing by 54-46 in Forde (a swing to the Liberal National Party of about 2%), from primary votes of 38% for Labor (37.4% at the 2010 election), 48% for the Coalition (44.1%) and 5% for the Greens (12.2%). The Galaxy poll has apparently targeted 550 to 600 respondents per electorate for a margin of error of 4%. (UPDATE: These turn out to be automated polls, and not live interviewer polls like Galaxy normally does.)
In the Sydney seats:
Lindsay. A 54-46 lead to the Liberals, a swing of about 5%.
Banks. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 3.5%.
Werriwa. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 9%.
Reid. A 53-47 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 6%.
Greenway. A 51-49 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 2%.
Parramatta. 50-50, a swing of about 5.5%.
Barton. Labor ahead 52-48, a swing of 5%.
In Victoria:
La Trobe. The Liberals lead 51-49, a swing of 3%, from primary votes of 36% for Labor and 45% for the Liberals.
Corangamite. The Liberals lead 56-44, a swing of slightly over 6%.
Chisholm. Labor leads 52-48, a Liberal swing of 4%.
Today also brought a Lonergan automated poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which remarkably showed him trailing Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson 52-48 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). Either in anticipation of or in reaction to the inevitably skeptical response, the company’s principal Chris Lonergan penned a rather informative piece on methodology for The Guardian.
UPDATE: The bit below has been amended to account for the fact that the Galaxy polls were automated, which means there is actually very little basis for comparing automated and live interview electorate polls.
Which makes this a timely juncture to consider how polling of various kinds has performed during the campaign. The table below shows the number of polls conducted for each pollster and poll method together with the average Labor swing, at both electorate and national level. There follows, for your convenience, basic results for every electorate-level poll of the campaign barring a small number which did not involve Labor-versus-Coalition contest, together with the swings not a single one of which is in Labor’s favour, emphasising the point that electorate-level has been much worse for Labor than national polling. However, since nearly all of this polling has mostly been of the automated phone variety, the question arises of whether this it to do with polling method, the particular challenges of electorate-level polling, or the peculiarities of the electorates being polled.
The only live interview electorate polls featured have been two from Newspoll, which makes their performance relative to automated phone polls hard to compare. However, there is a very large gap of 4.3% between national and electorate polls for automated pollsters. Non-phone methods, which have only been employed at national level, appear to have been more favourable for Labor, although there haven’t been very many of them (note that the two-party result being used from Morgan is the previous-election measure).
ELECTORATE POLLS # Swing Galaxy 10 5.1 ReachTEL 8 7.25 JWS Research 8 6 Lonergan 3 11.3 AUTOMATED 29 6.6 Newspoll (live interviewer) 2 4.5 TOTAL 31 6.5 NATIONAL POLLS # Swing Newspoll 2 3 Nielsen 1 2 Galaxy 2 1.5 LIVE INTERVIEW 6 2.2 ReachTEL 2 2.5 Lonergan 1 2 AUTOMATED 3 2.3 Essential 2 0 AMR Research 1 0 ONLINE 3 0 Morgan Multi-Mode 2 1.75 TOTAL 13 1.7 ELECTORATE POLL RESULTS Sample ALP Swing Griffith Lonergan 21/08/2013 958 48 10 Werriwa Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 9 Reid Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 47 6 Parramatta Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 50 4 Lindsay Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 46 5 La Trobe Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 3 Greenway Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 2 Forde Newspoll 20/08/2013 502 46 2 Corangamite Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 44 6 Chisholm Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 8 Barton Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 52 5 Banks Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 3 McMahon ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 47 11 Macquarie JWS Research 15/08/2013 710 45 4 Lindsay JWS Research 15/08/2013 578 39 12 Kingsford Smith ReachTEL 15/08/2013 610 48 7 Greenway JWS Research 15/08/2013 570 51 0 Forde Lonergan 15/08/2013 568 40 9 Forde JWS Research 15/08/2013 1160 40 9 Deakin ReachTEL 15/08/2013 619 47 4 Corangamite ReachTEL 15/08/2013 633 44 7 Corangamite JWS Research 15/08/2013 587 47 4 Brisbane JWS Research 15/08/2013 607 46 3 Blaxland ReachTEL 15/08/2013 636 52 10 Bennelong ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 35 12 Banks JWS Research 15/08/2013 542 47 4 Aston JWS Research 15/08/2013 577 37 12 Lindsay Lonergan 14/08/2013 1038 36 15 Dobell/RobertsonNewspoll 11/08/2013 505 46 7 Forde ReachTEL 08/08/2013 725 46 3 Griffith ReachTEL 05/08/2013 702 46 4
How’s the above correlate with bludgertrack?
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#Newspoll Seat of Forde 2 Party Preferred: LIB 54 ALP 46 #ausvotes
Beattie better get doorknocking!
Come on Abbott!
Paddy, it suggests BludgerTrack is a shade too rosy for Labor in NSW, substantially so in Queensland, and about right in Victoria.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 4s
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Barton 2 Party Preferred: ALP 52 LIB 48 #ausvotes
Did someone say the NBN was the ace on the hole… More like fire in the hole…
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 17s
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Parramatta 2 Party Preferred: ALP 50 LIB 50 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 59s
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Parramatta 2 Party Preferred: ALP 50 LIB 50 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 27s
#Newspoll Seat of Forde Primary Votes: ALP 38 LIB 48 GRN 5 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 33s
The #Newspoll Seat of Forde tables: http://bit.ly/16hCmOM #ausvotes
Well, from a Labor point of view – Barton can be retained, Parramatta is winnable, and I would not give up on La Trobe either.
Losing Werriwa would be a body blow BUT Laurie Ferguson is not a Rudd supporter so I wonder how hard he is campaigning this time?
Too much of the Daily Telegraph and 2GB blaring anti-Rudd propoganda across the West of Sydney.
ReachTEL scrubbing up much better in comparisons with these Galaxy/Newspoll findings than two certain other robopollsters.
[Losing Werriwa would be a body blow BUT Laurie Ferguson is not a Rudd supporter so I wonder how hard he is campaigning this time?]
Yeah, MPs like to lose their own seats to spite leaders…
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 51s
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Reid 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 LIB 53 #ausvotes
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 22s
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Greenway 2 Party Preferred: ALP 49 LIB 51 #ausvotes
Labor holding up better in Victoria than elsewhere obviously.
As for Forde, if they prefer a do nothing MP like Bert whatshisname, they are welcome to the atypical boring LNP hack.
William, how many people were polled in each seat and what is the margin of error?
John, given the number of seats involved, it can’t have been that many. My guess is 400 each and a margin of error of around 4.5%.
The Libs would be doing far better in Greenway if James Diaz was not their candidate.
Jamez Giaz ,new LNP Guru
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 6m
#Galaxy Poll Seat of Greenway 2 Party Preferred: ALP 49 LIB 51 #ausvotes
Seems there is not much great big gap between most of the seats.
William Bowe at 18,
It looks like 550-600 voters per seat.
Thanks William 🙂
I think there is a danger for political tragics and bloggers to overestimate the importance of the NBN in the electorate. They use media and the internet more than average, so overestimate its importance to others. Plus the NBN rollout has been slow, so the benefit is not appreciated, because it has not been eperienced.
This is not to say the NBN is bad. Economically it will be a good investment. But politically, the implementation has been Conroyed.
Thanks too GWV.
William or GWV what is MOE for 550 – 600 voters?
@Ghost/22
MOE?
Thanks, Ghost. The MoE for 550-600 respondents is pretty much bang on 4%.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
@genericleftist The 2PP is 49-51. Primaries are ALP 36 LIB 45, 556 voters polled in La Trobe. #Galaxy #ausvotes
@5 Thanks William. See NRL states lose more braincells!
Thanks William 🙂
Please don’t screw it up Tony, slow, very slow and steady wins the race.
I dont buy the Forde figures.
LNP and ALP both get a swing? GRNs vote down from 12.2 to 5? Post PNG solution?
Complete rubbish.
Gee all out tonight even the lovely? John of Melbourne make a guest appearance again plus of course direct from Menzies House Newie, what a misnomer of a name 😀
So Newspoll’s analysis that NSW is Labor’s problem and Qld is not the saviour is corroborated. So the state Labor stench has gone into the carpet!
“freelancing” or simply “finally being honest (three weeks earlier than planned)?
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/liberals-ire-as-abetz-goes-freelancing-20130822-2seh8.html
@Paddy O/33
Not sure what you mean, Newspoll does say gains in QLD, NSW, WA, SA over two weeks.
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2013/08/21/1226701/636599-aus-news-file-federal-130822.pdf
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch_20.html
Updated again with comments on these seat polls.
Zoid- may be gains relative to previously worse positions but from a election winning point of view it seems that Labor needs to improve significantly in either QLD or NSW or both. Thus explaining the campaigning domination in that part of the country.
@Paddy O/37
Not saying they are worse positions (depending if you think a another minority gov would be bad).
Of course it’s why It’s over in eastern states.
But I’m not sure if that should be the case considering the SSM issue.
Probably work more in Victoria and perhaps South Australia.
I think Labor has to use the $30 Billion of hidden cuts means xx to your hip pocket and real services- make a list
@Paddy O/39
I hope they use it.
liyana
[Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 9:14 pm | Permalink
I think I’ll stick with Saul Eastlake’s estimate of a 30 billion black hole in coalition costings]
Me too.
These polls aren’t as bad for the ALP as the last set, based on a national average of 53-47 to the Coalition. Indeed 7/10 seats have a margin of less than 5%. If the ALP get it to 49/51 or 50/50 nationally those seats could easily swing back and even Forde is tighter than the last few polls. We also need to see more figures from Queensland, WA and NT where state poll samples are better for the ALP than NSW and Victoria where most of these figures are from
Simon – Yes. These polls are focused on possible problem seats for Labor.
Bugger all chance of a similar set of polls being commissioned for troublesome Coalition Seats.
Aus 9-492 dec.
triton – Just when I was thinking where are the Cricket watchers?
CTAR1 – Indeed
Simon – It’s been inculcated in Australian journos for decades that the way to the front page is to write a ‘Labor in Trouble’ story.
‘Management’ are commissioning the polls and deciding the questions to feed the fire.
So a ’boutique’ targeted poll like this one is all part of the action – ‘Please the Boss’.
CTar1 – Indeed, but it could have the advantage for the ALP they could catch the Coalition on the hop if there really is a swing to the ALP in Queensland as most polls suggest
Simon – It’s not over yet.
It will be close run if things keep going as they are.
The choice is not ‘great’.
[For sale: Three Nasa shuttle launch platforms – collection only
The space equipment clearout will also see spare tyres and other items up for grabs]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/for-sale-three-nasa-shuttle-launch-platforms–collection-only-8780609.html