GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has electorate-level polls from 10 marginal seats in New South Wales and Victoria, collectively painting a grim picture for Labor. There is also a Newspoll survey of 502 respondents showing Peter Beattie trailing by 54-46 in Forde (a swing to the Liberal National Party of about 2%), from primary votes of 38% for Labor (37.4% at the 2010 election), 48% for the Coalition (44.1%) and 5% for the Greens (12.2%). The Galaxy poll has apparently targeted 550 to 600 respondents per electorate for a margin of error of 4%. (UPDATE: These turn out to be automated polls, and not live interviewer polls like Galaxy normally does.)
In the Sydney seats:
Lindsay. A 54-46 lead to the Liberals, a swing of about 5%.
Banks. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 3.5%.
Werriwa. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 9%.
Reid. A 53-47 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 6%.
Greenway. A 51-49 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 2%.
Parramatta. 50-50, a swing of about 5.5%.
Barton. Labor ahead 52-48, a swing of 5%.
In Victoria:
La Trobe. The Liberals lead 51-49, a swing of 3%, from primary votes of 36% for Labor and 45% for the Liberals.
Corangamite. The Liberals lead 56-44, a swing of slightly over 6%.
Chisholm. Labor leads 52-48, a Liberal swing of 4%.
Today also brought a Lonergan automated poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which remarkably showed him trailing Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson 52-48 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). Either in anticipation of or in reaction to the inevitably skeptical response, the company’s principal Chris Lonergan penned a rather informative piece on methodology for The Guardian.
UPDATE: The bit below has been amended to account for the fact that the Galaxy polls were automated, which means there is actually very little basis for comparing automated and live interview electorate polls.
Which makes this a timely juncture to consider how polling of various kinds has performed during the campaign. The table below shows the number of polls conducted for each pollster and poll method together with the average Labor swing, at both electorate and national level. There follows, for your convenience, basic results for every electorate-level poll of the campaign barring a small number which did not involve Labor-versus-Coalition contest, together with the swings – not a single one of which is in Labor’s favour, emphasising the point that electorate-level has been much worse for Labor than national polling. However, since nearly all of this polling has mostly been of the automated phone variety, the question arises of whether this it to do with polling method, the particular challenges of electorate-level polling, or the peculiarities of the electorates being polled.
The only live interview electorate polls featured have been two from Newspoll, which makes their performance relative to automated phone polls hard to compare. However, there is a very large gap of 4.3% between national and electorate polls for automated pollsters. Non-phone methods, which have only been employed at national level, appear to have been more favourable for Labor, although there haven’t been very many of them (note that the two-party result being used from Morgan is the previous-election measure).
ELECTORATE POLLS # Swing Galaxy 10 5.1 ReachTEL 8 7.25 JWS Research 8 6 Lonergan 3 11.3 AUTOMATED 29 6.6 Newspoll (live interviewer) 2 4.5 TOTAL 31 6.5 NATIONAL POLLS # Swing Newspoll 2 3 Nielsen 1 2 Galaxy 2 1.5 LIVE INTERVIEW 6 2.2 ReachTEL 2 2.5 Lonergan 1 2 AUTOMATED 3 2.3 Essential 2 0 AMR Research 1 0 ONLINE 3 0 Morgan Multi-Mode 2 1.75 TOTAL 13 1.7 ELECTORATE POLL RESULTS Sample ALP Swing Griffith Lonergan 21/08/2013 958 48 10 Werriwa Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 9 Reid Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 47 6 Parramatta Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 50 4 Lindsay Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 46 5 La Trobe Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 3 Greenway Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 2 Forde Newspoll 20/08/2013 502 46 2 Corangamite Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 44 6 Chisholm Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 8 Barton Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 52 5 Banks Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 3 McMahon ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 47 11 Macquarie JWS Research 15/08/2013 710 45 4 Lindsay JWS Research 15/08/2013 578 39 12 Kingsford Smith ReachTEL 15/08/2013 610 48 7 Greenway JWS Research 15/08/2013 570 51 0 Forde Lonergan 15/08/2013 568 40 9 Forde JWS Research 15/08/2013 1160 40 9 Deakin ReachTEL 15/08/2013 619 47 4 Corangamite ReachTEL 15/08/2013 633 44 7 Corangamite JWS Research 15/08/2013 587 47 4 Brisbane JWS Research 15/08/2013 607 46 3 Blaxland ReachTEL 15/08/2013 636 52 10 Bennelong ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 35 12 Banks JWS Research 15/08/2013 542 47 4 Aston JWS Research 15/08/2013 577 37 12 Lindsay Lonergan 14/08/2013 1038 36 15 Dobell/RobertsonNewspoll 11/08/2013 505 46 7 Forde ReachTEL 08/08/2013 725 46 3 Griffith ReachTEL 05/08/2013 702 46 4
Hi, I’ve been lurking for a good few years now, but thought I’d take the plunge and join in. These polling figures look pretty reasonable for the ALP I would have thought? Most within the margin of error, and with the exception of Corangamite none seem lost hopes. Indeed it seems unlikely that Labor will go backwards unless they kick a massive own goal at this stage, and whilst it won’t be as dramatic as if the coalition posted its coatings with a big black hole, not publishing them till the last minute is likely to cause a stead drip drip of deteriorating support for them.
At present at least half a dozen of the following seats are likely to be closer than would appear at first glance based on state breakdowns.
Fair chance that Labor are within one percent or better in several of Brisbane, Longman, Herbert, Hasluck, Flynn, Fisher, Swan, Macquarie and Solomon. More polling for these seats please…
Also maybe a couple of the next lot are nearly as close: Dawson, Bonner, Canning, Dunkley, Stirling, Casey, Boothby, Gilmore.
Labor need to continue their recent momentum gained through generally getting the best of the policy debates.
Can they also get some of those currently 47, 48, 49 western Sydney seats over the line?
Two weeks to go.
Green vote 5% in Forde – bullbutter. 😛
rua 53
These numbers for individual seats are a little dodgy to say the least (in terms of size of swing).
I still think this has a whiff of 93…the late comeback as it dawns on people.
Evev Evan Parsons has arrived – just in time to see the Messiah lose his seat.
Could I just butt in please with some anecdata about the whole PPL thing being geared towards “women of calibre” and the obviously eugenicist arguments behind them?
And also about the fact that most of the social engineering hand-wringing about who is having “quality” babies seems to be coming from men?
Because, just in my own life experience, would you believe it, I have noticed that women actually know a lot the f#$% about how to have, and raise, “babies of calibre”, with or without adequate support from the man/men in their lives and with or without adequate support from the social safety net.
Fellas: Women have been doing this for a very, very, long time.
I happen to know two women, both single mothers, who had babies very young and before either of them held any formal educational qualifications, any remotely “marketable” job skills, or indeed any apparent ability to offer anything like a bright or secure future for their offspring. In fact, one of them you wouldn’t have rated at all (at the time) and would’ve assumed would end up a meth junkie, and the kid probably as well. The other you would’ve presumed would turn out some sort of hippy-dippy, unvacinnated, uneducated Occupy protestor, or something.
Well, both of them have raised very fine individuals and both them now, in their mid-30s, have postgraduate qualifications, quality employment, and bright futures ahead for both themselves and their offspring.
I also happen to know two other woman who were both independently wealthy, ‘self-made’ (as far as such a thing is possible, no-one is really ‘self-made’, but let that go), who had their babies quite late — and apart from the usual family bust-ups and bumps, guess what, they turned out OK too. Albeit not demonstrably better or “higher-calibre” than the two hard-scrabble families above.
In all cases, they did it without a father present (in any meaningful way). In the case of the two hard-scrabble families, they did it thanks to social support which has worked and has produced two families who can earn, can pay tax and who do productive jobs that build the future of Australia (defence, education).
So, in my own anecdata, whatever other arguments for and against ‘PPL Gold’ there might be, the eugenicist one is both invalid and also monstrously presumptive, dehumanising and, IMHO downright evil. It would further advantage the two single mothers I know who were already advantaged and didn’t need it anyway (they did it all without social support and are doing fine); and it would offer no further improvement to the two hard-scrabble families (who managed to not only survive, but eventually overcome adversity and thrive and now contribute back) on the existing social support infrastructure.
Good day to you.
Work Choices the libs never gave up on it.
Senator Abetz had granted an unscheduled interview on his party’s workplace relations laws, during which he flagged that enterprise agreements entered into by unions and employers might be struck down if deemed excessive.
He signalled changes to the Fair Work Act to require the industrial umpire to satisfy itself that productivity improvements had been ”genuinely discussed”.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/liberals-ire-as-abetz-goes-freelancing-20130822-2seh8.html#ixzz2cjWdnPtd
One of Abbotts battlers who will benefit from the means test rebate for private health cover being abolished whilst other areas of health are cut by $1 billion.
[Mining magnate Andrew ”Twiggy” Forrest will be paid a dividend of more than $102 million after his flagship company exceeded expectations for both profit and dividend flows in the 2013 financial year.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/twiggy-forrests-big-pay-day-20130822-2sed3.html#ixzz2cjWn5h4w
Only 15 more sleeps until fundamental injustice day mk2!
But where is Dr Carr !! Adam Heeellooo Come out wherever you are !
$30B is better then a $70B black hole.
Kevin B from last topic on preferential voting…
The cartoon proposed that the partial bastards party
a) met the minimal ethical standard for support/was qualitatively distinguishable from the others
b) would be moved to curry favour with the hugs party supporters even though they had no choice but to vote for him
c) ignored the moral hazard and culpability issues of hugs party folk supporting the pb party
d) ignored the reality that the pb party can’t move in the direction of hugs without losing support amongst the other grades of bastards who all have their choice
No way the coalition supporters and pro coalition media showing desperation
these results are pathetic for the coalition
only 1 seat looks safe for the libs
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Whichever party is in power they should sort ot some legislation that would ping this continually exposed rapacious monoply for tax that is reasonably due. Max Moore-Wilton would be right in the middle of this.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/airports-pot-of-gold-20130822-2segw.html
Tim Colebatch rubbishes the parallel universe of RoboPolls.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/can-we-believe-the-polls-robopollsters-are-showing-strange-results-20130822-2sep7.html
Looks like the knives are out for Pru.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/goward-accused-of-failing-to-correct-record-on-caseworkers-20130822-2sehs.html
Rudd promises to make GST reporting annual rather than quarterly for SMEs. It does mean less paperwork but does expose poorly run businesses to the risk of incurring large unseen (or ignored) tax obligations. I encourage small businesses to use MYOB or something similar to manage their accounts and keeping them up to date, The GST and BAS can be done monthly with virtually the press of a button, smoothiong out cash flow and shining a light on the true financial position of their enterprise.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/labor-plan-to-cut-gst-red-tape-20130822-2sepv.html
The Libs are not happy about Erica spilling the beans.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/liberals-ire-as-abetz-goes-freelancing-20130822-2seh8.html
What mugs get on to local councils at times! At least one council has intelligent members.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/22/fluoridation-nsw-ballina-votes-reject-ban
Here comes the cuts.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/health-bodies-face-coalition-scalpel-20130822-2seib.html
Who would have thought?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/coalition-falls-30b-short-20130822-2sesr.html
Section 2 . . .
Alan Moir’s view of the Arab Spring.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
David Rowe on the Syrian situation.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
Look at the book David Pope has Abbott reading.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
MUST SEE! Ron Tandberg on Abbott’s school plans.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
No wonder the coalition supporters and pro coalition media showing desperation
these results are pathetic for the coalition
only 1 seat looks safe for the libs
4% margain of error is the only thing making the coalition look good
llaugh of the day is this comment
Polls from 11 seats across three states paint a broad picture of Labor losing
Boxhead Cormann is such a grating, annoying and boring nonentity!
i just cant believe how disciplined the Labor team is at the moment and only weeks after the removal of Gillard.
Rudd says Abbott will raise the GST.
In response, Abbott rules out any changes to the GST.
Rudd says he’ll make donations from tobacco companies illegal.
In response, Abbott rules out taking any money from tobacco companies, saying he doesn’t want Rudd’s distractions in the campaign.
Rudd says Abbott’s policies are unfunded and Abbott won’t release his costings because they don’t add up.
In response… *crickets*
And from the Land of the Free –
Isn’t it a lovely, caring country!
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/22/seeing-a-movie-twice-took-his-breath-away-pernanently/
Some cartoons on the Repug CC denialists.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/22/cartoons-of-the-day-gop-denies-climate-change/
And FoxNews resident mental midget Steve Douchebag follows through right on cue!
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/22/video-fox-news-steve-doocy-the-science-is-not-settled-on-global-warming/
Hilary Clinton gives Al Jazeera a leg up.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017140126
The Justice Dept to challenge Texas on voter ID laws.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/22/justice-department-texas-voter-id_n_3796185.html
David Packman takes apart a religious talking head over Iraq’s role in 9/11.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017140072
BK @ 64
The article you poseted by Tim Colebatch about the polls
It wont just be the polls looking silly , it will also be the so called experts who are calling the result on the polls
rummel
Keep continuing backing labor , which will likely still be in government after september 7th this year
John64
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 7:27 am | PERMALINK
Abbott hardly stays true to his words
Morning all. The analyasis by Saul Eastlake is very sognificant. He is independent and credible, unlike the coalitions planned “mates review” by one of John Howards former departmental heads.
[The Opposition has rejected an independent analysis of its federal election costings that shows it will have to find a further $30 billion in savings to make good on its promise to improve the budget bottom line.]
This is NOT conting the cost of PPL, which Eastlake assumes to be funded, and adds another $22 billion over forward estimates. So the real figure is around $50 billion, close to what Labor has been suggesting. Labor should not aplogise for the $70 billion figure, as it was made in the absence of many coalition policy details, and had to include assumptions.
How bad is that? Very bad. The coalition is short by more money than the combined cost of the NDIS, Better schools, and total federal infrastructure spending. Something major would have to go to fill that hole.
Do they random poll across the broader electorate?
I’ve always wondered if they can cherry pick certain areas within an electorate that tend to lean more so either way.
Dee
Its more likely wiht newsltd polling , they are polling pro coalition areas
The big indicator that the coalition are going to fall short is Anna Burke’s seat
The main problem with the NBN is that the government has done such a poor job in selling it.
Cases in point:
1) Albanese’a poor showing against Turnbull recently on the Lateline “debate”
2) Rudd’s statement yesterday that FOD would cost consumers “between $3000 and $5000″ – WRONG!
Turnbull has on at least 4 occasions stated the cost as “several thousand dollars” (exact words, all on transcripts from ABC interviews and even on his own blog).
So Rudd AND THE CONTENTIOUS FLYER should be saying ” several thousand dollars – OR MORE”. The bottom range should be Turnbull’s own admissions, and the top range (“OR MORE”) should be common sense based on what the civil costs to supply and install fibre over several hundred metres to a SINGLE PREMISES would be (I would argue a minimum of $100,000).
Labor has taken Turnbull’s own admissions and exaggerated them – BACKWARDS!! How incredibly dumb is that!
Turnbull has on numerous occasions used the example of an architect working from home and needing a fast connection, while the rest of the street is happy with FTTN. His promise on FOD in this example is for a SINGLE CONNECTION. But the official Coalition policy document states that FOD will only be supplied where it is economically feasible to do so. That clearly rules out all and any single connections..
Then there’s the issues of user-connections costs (NTD, central splitter, testing etc) – $500 at least. Plus the issue of the copper wire thinness.
Does the ALP ever mention these things? No.
Is the ALP across the technical issues of NBN? No
This is a bloody disgrace. Sheer incompetence in a political sense.
dedalus
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 7:41 am | PERMALINK
The main problem with the NBN is that the government has done such a poor job in
2) Rudd’s statement yesterday that FOD would cost consumers “between $3000 and $5000″ – WRONG!
—he was right
even turnbull said that to be the case
morning all
Dedalus
Agree. 100% with you. What is the govt waiting for. There is only two weeks left, and there has been no advertising spruiking Broadband and exposing fraudband for what it is.
Melbourne town is in the grip of the Essendon saga. James Hird vs the AFL and Andrew Demetrioi.
The election. What election?
[Peter Beattie
We have a fight on our hands in Forde according to the latest Newspoll but I am a fighter. This is not over yet.Off to 6-30 am street stalls]
Rudds comment on the risk of recession under coalition cuts is also relevant to Eastlake’s $30 billion coalition shortfall estimate. The 2009 stimulus package cost $42 billion, of which the infrastrucure program cost $28 billion. So the coalition would need to cut out of government spending an amount equal to what was spent keeping Australa in work and out of recession during the GFC. Pretty obviously, if a similar amount of government work was cut by the coalition, a recession could occur.
Taking into account the 72 hour blackout for advertising, there is effectively only 12:days left
Morning all
I see that the no-one is sure about the size of the Coalition’s White Hole. It will be a White Day for Australia when Abbott, who is not fit to be prime minister, gets to tell us all to shut the f**k up because it is official. I will be in a White Mood on that day.
Dedalus
True re NBN. Unfortunately most governments are full of people who love policy and grand narratives, but are lousy at details. There was a time they used to appoint good administrators under them to do the details. These days both sides are more likely to appoint mates or former staffers.
Boerwar
Unfortunately it is looking likely
Morning all. The analyasis by Saul Eastlake is very sognificant. He is independent and credible, unlike the coalitions planned “mates review” by one of John Howards former departmental heads.
=================================
Do you mean Saul Eslake? To am I just confused? 😛
Buy the boats!
Krazy koalition kash deals!
http://mobile.news.com.au/national-news/federal-election/coalition-immigration-spokesperson-scott-morrison-announces-plan-to-buy-back-boats/story-fnho52ip-1226702440885
Morning.
The Age print edition front page:
[Coalition falls $30b short]
Insanity has final struck Scoot:
[A BOAT buy back scheme and bounties paid in Indonesia are part of a planned crackdown on people smuggling under a Coalition government.
Australian taxpayers would purchase leaking fishing boats from poor fishermen where intelligence identified they planned to sell them to people smugglers.
Under a Village Watch Program impoverished Indonesians would also be eligible to be paid “bounties” if they handed over crucial information under the Coalition’s regional deterrence policy.]
Has anyone seen many Lib Ads? In eden monaro, i have seen very little Liberal Ads compared to Labor.
[This little black duck
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 8:07 am | PERMALINK
Insanity has final struck Scoot:
A BOAT buy back scheme and bounties paid in Indonesia are part of a planned crackdown on people smuggling under a Coalition government.]
Its Cash for Junk’s.
I cant believe this nation is willing to vote in these clownsl
Cash for boats! Please…..
I can envisage an industry of boat building about to take off in Indonesia.
“Facepalm”
Principals have warned that savage cuts to public school funding allocations revealed yesterday will reduce the quality of education offered by WA schools.
WA Primary Principals Association president Stephen Breen said he had been fielding phone calls all day from school leaders who were “greatly concerned” about how they would deliver the same quality of education on less funding.
——————————————————–
Meanwhile in WA the state Liberal Govt, lead by one of the men Abbott sees as an example to follow, show what value the Liberals truly put on education.
Note that there is no cut in state funding to private schools
I feel curiously confident today. Swathes of bs robopolls and other highly selective marginals v national swing of only 2%.
Both cannot be right.
Don’t believe the hype.
AA
WA Labor should capatilise on their state govts failings