GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has electorate-level polls from 10 marginal seats in New South Wales and Victoria, collectively painting a grim picture for Labor. There is also a Newspoll survey of 502 respondents showing Peter Beattie trailing by 54-46 in Forde (a swing to the Liberal National Party of about 2%), from primary votes of 38% for Labor (37.4% at the 2010 election), 48% for the Coalition (44.1%) and 5% for the Greens (12.2%). The Galaxy poll has apparently targeted 550 to 600 respondents per electorate for a margin of error of 4%. (UPDATE: These turn out to be automated polls, and not live interviewer polls like Galaxy normally does.)
In the Sydney seats:
Lindsay. A 54-46 lead to the Liberals, a swing of about 5%.
Banks. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 3.5%.
Werriwa. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 9%.
Reid. A 53-47 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 6%.
Greenway. A 51-49 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 2%.
Parramatta. 50-50, a swing of about 5.5%.
Barton. Labor ahead 52-48, a swing of 5%.
In Victoria:
La Trobe. The Liberals lead 51-49, a swing of 3%, from primary votes of 36% for Labor and 45% for the Liberals.
Corangamite. The Liberals lead 56-44, a swing of slightly over 6%.
Chisholm. Labor leads 52-48, a Liberal swing of 4%.
Today also brought a Lonergan automated poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which remarkably showed him trailing Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson 52-48 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). Either in anticipation of or in reaction to the inevitably skeptical response, the company’s principal Chris Lonergan penned a rather informative piece on methodology for The Guardian.
UPDATE: The bit below has been amended to account for the fact that the Galaxy polls were automated, which means there is actually very little basis for comparing automated and live interview electorate polls.
Which makes this a timely juncture to consider how polling of various kinds has performed during the campaign. The table below shows the number of polls conducted for each pollster and poll method together with the average Labor swing, at both electorate and national level. There follows, for your convenience, basic results for every electorate-level poll of the campaign barring a small number which did not involve Labor-versus-Coalition contest, together with the swings – not a single one of which is in Labor’s favour, emphasising the point that electorate-level has been much worse for Labor than national polling. However, since nearly all of this polling has mostly been of the automated phone variety, the question arises of whether this it to do with polling method, the particular challenges of electorate-level polling, or the peculiarities of the electorates being polled.
The only live interview electorate polls featured have been two from Newspoll, which makes their performance relative to automated phone polls hard to compare. However, there is a very large gap of 4.3% between national and electorate polls for automated pollsters. Non-phone methods, which have only been employed at national level, appear to have been more favourable for Labor, although there haven’t been very many of them (note that the two-party result being used from Morgan is the previous-election measure).
ELECTORATE POLLS # Swing Galaxy 10 5.1 ReachTEL 8 7.25 JWS Research 8 6 Lonergan 3 11.3 AUTOMATED 29 6.6 Newspoll (live interviewer) 2 4.5 TOTAL 31 6.5 NATIONAL POLLS # Swing Newspoll 2 3 Nielsen 1 2 Galaxy 2 1.5 LIVE INTERVIEW 6 2.2 ReachTEL 2 2.5 Lonergan 1 2 AUTOMATED 3 2.3 Essential 2 0 AMR Research 1 0 ONLINE 3 0 Morgan Multi-Mode 2 1.75 TOTAL 13 1.7 ELECTORATE POLL RESULTS Sample ALP Swing Griffith Lonergan 21/08/2013 958 48 10 Werriwa Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 9 Reid Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 47 6 Parramatta Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 50 4 Lindsay Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 46 5 La Trobe Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 3 Greenway Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 2 Forde Newspoll 20/08/2013 502 46 2 Corangamite Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 44 6 Chisholm Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 8 Barton Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 52 5 Banks Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 3 McMahon ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 47 11 Macquarie JWS Research 15/08/2013 710 45 4 Lindsay JWS Research 15/08/2013 578 39 12 Kingsford Smith ReachTEL 15/08/2013 610 48 7 Greenway JWS Research 15/08/2013 570 51 0 Forde Lonergan 15/08/2013 568 40 9 Forde JWS Research 15/08/2013 1160 40 9 Deakin ReachTEL 15/08/2013 619 47 4 Corangamite ReachTEL 15/08/2013 633 44 7 Corangamite JWS Research 15/08/2013 587 47 4 Brisbane JWS Research 15/08/2013 607 46 3 Blaxland ReachTEL 15/08/2013 636 52 10 Bennelong ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 35 12 Banks JWS Research 15/08/2013 542 47 4 Aston JWS Research 15/08/2013 577 37 12 Lindsay Lonergan 14/08/2013 1038 36 15 Dobell/RobertsonNewspoll 11/08/2013 505 46 7 Forde ReachTEL 08/08/2013 725 46 3 Griffith ReachTEL 05/08/2013 702 46 4
lefty e
I have not given up, but Labor have a huge fight on their hands.
“Live interview polls have been 2.8% worse for Labor at electorate rather than national level”
Well there goes the “blame-the-Robopolls” excuse.
Now you Canberra-centric types will need to fall back on the “blame-the-big-bad-media”.
The Libs are winning this because of hard work in individual electorates, shoring up their own seats and making inroads where it counts — at the grassroots level in ALP seats.
And, just a tip: don’t hang your hat on Victoria. The Libs have been holding back on their advertising for a final fortnight campaign to erode the unrealistic Green vote in that State. Stay tuned in
Morning Bludgers.
In his article yesterday Mumble argued that this election is not like the so-called ‘change’ elections of 2007, 1996 where a change of government seems inevitable, with election campaigns uncompetitive.
I disagree. My own view, based on the absence of anyone I’ve encountered talking about this election, or even showing the slightest interest in it, is that people have already made up their minds that the govt must change, and will quietly effect this on polling day.
[Its Cash for Junk’s]
junk bonds?
should support the indo boat building industry
[The Libs are winning this because of hard work in individual electorates, shoring up their own seats and making inroads where it counts — at the grassroots level in ALP seats.]
The Libs have certainly out-performed Labor at the electorate level. They completed their preselections well ahead of schedule, and have had their candidates on the ground in their seats, in some cases for over 2 years now.
Compared with Labor, who for key seats like Dobell, have only just preselected candidates!
Not that I’m a conspiracy theorist or paranoid, but I reckon I now know why the on-line news services shut down there on-line comments columns.
To prevent people from writing about how crap the Liberal policies are that the news services are avoiding making mention of in their columns.
Morning All
More bad polling for Labor – are they right? Probably safest to assume they are and that they better find a way to cut through. I still think they should go costings and policy and forget the personal attacks on Abbott.
Good move re GST reporting by Rudd
Clive not getting as much coverage for his outing of Brough yesterday as he should
Victoria is spot on – it’s all about the Bombers in Melbourne. I don’t think people will really focus until right at the end
Overall, while there’s life there’s hope
[ Whichever party is in power they should sort of some legislation that would ping this continually exposed rapacious monoply for tax that is reasonably due. Max Moore-Wilton would be right in the middle of this. ]
The US has (had?) a ‘Minimal Alternative Tax’ which required some level of tax payment notwithstanding whatever deductions might be available etc.
But raising and broadening the GST is what will really happen.
Davo
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 8:20 am | PERMALINK
“Live interview polls have been 2.8% worse for Labor at electorate rather than national level”
———-
?
evidence
What you see in the Liberal states is what you’ll get from an Abbott lead Federal Govt.
It’s in their DNA
[Socrates
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 7:34 am | Permalink
The analysis by Saul Eastlake is very significant. He is independent and credible, unlike the coalitions planned “mates review” by one of John Howards former departmental heads. ]
He is also a former young libs president and worked for Kennett on his ‘Commission of Audit’ so much loved by the tories.
r
The Boat Bloviater’s ‘Cash for junks’. Love it.
Many of the Indonesian fisheries have been over-fished to buggery, many of the mangrove forests that used to act as nurseries have gone, many of the reefs have been dynamited to rubble so there would be literally, and there are more and more mouths to feed, so thousands of boats that could be made leakworthy. Hell, depending on the price being paid, Indonesians could probably build brand new boats that leak.
As for paying dobbers, I would have thought that it is unAustralian. But I suppose they are only Indonesians, so that does not count, policy-wise.
Mr Eslake had better increase the size of the Coalition’s White Hole.
As for whether it is good policy that is a whole nother thing. I am sure that the margins are so good that it would be a matter of some indifference to smugglers whether they pay for leaky tubs or good ones.
Morrision’s policy difficulty is that the supply of boats is, in commercial terms, infinite.
Still, it is not all bad. Morrison will have created a new industry in Indonesia and he may have ensured that fewer people will drown because more people will be coming across on fit and proper boats.
I am not sure that that is what he intends.
Morrison will probably find that bloviating about boats on Sky was much easier than actually stopping desperate people in their tracks.
Happy clapping combined with sneering contempt meets hard reality.
womble
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 8:28 am | PERMALINK
Morning All
More bad polling for Labor – are they right?’
——-
No the way the media was carrying on the liberal party was well in front
its nearly 50-50 excepte for 1 or 2 seats
womble
How unsurprisement that the Palmer relevations have not been reported extensively. Had it been a former ALP Minister who is now vying for another spot in the HOR, it would be reported on an endless loop. It is obvious that this is very damaging to the Coalition, and therefore the msm are not going to help it along. More important to report the facebook entry of a make up artist, who spent less than a minute getting Rudd made up for the debate. The powers that be are hijacking our democracy.
We can thank the messiah James Hird for hijacking the football season. What a disgrace
I am a bit surprised that the Secular Party and the Informal Party are not polling better. I would have thought that, forced to choose between someone who is rude to makeup artistes and someone who goes around punching holes in walls and telling people to shut up, people would have preferred a sane alternative.
I suppose that means Australians are easily satisfied or that they have become used to democracy theft.
By the way, despite intense back-room discussions over Americanos and Lindt choccies at Tilly’s, the two parties have decided not to do a Whatever It Takes preference deal with each other.
Meguire Bob:: That quote is taken directly from William’s blog posting above.
And it’s also the bleeding obvious. Although the Robopolls have also been generally worse for Labor. Take your pick.
victoria
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 8:35 am | Permalink
womble
How unsurprisement that the Palmer relevations have not been reported extensively. Had it been a former ALP Minister who is now vying for another spot in the HOR, it would be reported on an endless loop. It is obvious that this is very damaging to the Coalition, and therefore the msm are not going to help it along. More important to report the facebook entry of a make up artist, who spent less than a minute getting Rudd made up for the debate. The powers that be are hijacking our democracy.
——————————————————
Its in the news “services” (sic) DNA not to report anything that could be damaging to the Liberals and Abbott.
Remember Abbott is a former Murdoch employee.
Davo
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 8:37 am | PERMALINK
Meguire Bob:: That quote is taken directly from William’s blog posting above.
And it’s also the bleeding obvious. Although the Robopolls have also been generally worse for Labor. Take your pick.
———————————
the accuracy of these polls not very good
Davo
The polling which is done is by the media’s agenda
they are not facts
Boerwar
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 8:36 am | Permalink
I am a bit surprised that the Secular Party and the Informal Party are not polling better. I would have thought that, forced to choose between someone who is rude to makeup artistes and someone who goes around punching holes in walls and telling people to shut up, people would have preferred a sane alternative.
———————————————————
I did mention some time ago that if the Informal Party ran a candidate they may well have got elected.
I still get a laugh thinking about it.
Cash for Leaky Boats.
Liberals spending like there is no tomorrow from a budget they describe as being in “emergency”, and no questions being asked.
Good Morning
I see the LNP is out saying Saul Eslake cannot add up.
More blame the messenger and not admit your error. Who are the LNP going to blame next? The man on the moon?
Voters do remember the botched costings from last election.
Unfortunately I think the “never stops talking” shot by Abbott, which apparently has already been hard in focus groups, may continue to damage Rudd.
I heard him on ABC24 this morning “pre-announcing” the change of policy on BAS statements for small businesses. Through my own experience, I understand the problem very well. Yet through Rudd’s verbiage I had great difficulty in receiving a simple message.
Tighten up the messages for new policies, Rudd, please.
Davo
All what labor needs to retain government is the poll on election day to favour them
every single electorate is polled
where in these media driven opinion polls, no one really knows what part of the electorate/s being pollled
The UN’s plans to free people deemed to be terrorist threats does seem to be rather cavalier. After all, it is not UN diplomats who might be blown to pieces, or whatever.
That said, there does seem to be somewhat of a miscarriage of justice in that people are effectively being jailed for life without recourse to review of the decisions that jailed them for life.
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/detaining-of-refugees-inhumane-un/story-e6frfku9-1226702434956
Those with an interest in refugee policies more generally might be interested that the sums look a bit like this:
50 detainees at, say $50,000 per annum, at say, 40 years of detainment = $100 million.
Given the size of the Coalition’s White Hole, that is quite a lot of money.
Corrman on Faine now and claims Eslake is “wrong” and is giving specific examples, with numbers. That ought to make things interesting.
Labor has been running well on costings. All they have to do is get that to register with voters.
I suspect Labor is wating for the advertising blackout for the big push. Takes a bit of the unlevel playing field out of play
Damn. Cormann. Haste is my excuse this time.
AA
‘I did mention some time ago that if the Informal Party ran a candidate they may well have got elected.
I still get a laugh thinking about it.’
*laughs*
The Informal Party was going to run candidates but it was decided that the objective of achieving zero per cent of the vote was too daunting.
Gosh, what is happening to the Liberals in WA?
[The former staffer at the centre of the political storm engulfing senior State Liberal Peter Collier went public yesterday with allegations the minister threatened to harm the reputation of a public servant who complained of bullying.
The Opposition said Premier Colin Barnett had no choice but to stand Mr Collier aside pending an independent investigation into the affair.
Darren Brown, Mr Collier’s chief of staff in 2011, explained on radio 6PR yesterday why he asked Public Sector Commissioner Mal Wauchope via text messages, on the minister’s behalf, to change the scope of an inquiry into the “culture” of his office.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/18616233/former-staffer-puts-collier-under-pressure/
Since they’ve won office in their own right earlier this year, it seems as if there’s a scandal a day that wasn’t there when they were in minority govt with the Nationals.
Abbott keeps harping on about the “great Howard Government” and what it did for Australia.
This the Government that cut $1 billion from Health Services while running a $23 billion surplus.
It was not all that long ago that some Bludgers were explaining to anyone who care to listen, which was as usual no-one, that Eslake was wrong about Swan’s budget predictions.
I forget exactly how it all washed up but Eslake was righter than Swan and the relevant Bludgers.
Oh, and SHY does not approve of any of it either.
Now Shorten on Faine.
Boerwar
Yes indeed!
Saul’s figures only get back to where Labor is at not into surplus faster like the LNP has promised – add several billion imo
Bob – this election, like all others, will be won and lost in the marginals
Victoria – my hope is Clive is biting more in Queensland. If Brough does get in he might be thrown out again pretty quickly anyway
I hope the Blues give the Bombers hell this weekend – they deserve it
Off to work – have a great day all TGIF
lizzie:
Yes, he does tend to waffle, but I raise my eyebrows at coalition MPs criticising him for it. After all, Abbott might be master at speaking concisely, but his words are empty!
lizzie
I had the misfortune to turn the teev on this morning when Rudd was talking. And talking. And talking. Firstly’s, Secondly’s and Thirdly’s.
Abbott’s line works because it is true.
This does not change anything, IMHO. Neither Rudd nor Abbott is fit to be prime minister. It is why we spend time discussing whether Rudd talks to much and whether Abbott ever answers any real question: flim flam about style over democratic substance.
womble
I am hoping the same thing from the Blues. Although they hardly instill confidence!!
Have a good day
Boerwar
I ask which is the lesser rotten apple?
[Kevin Rudd has accused Rupert Murdoch’s Australian newspapers of “taking a club” to his government and failing to put Tony Abbott under any scrutiny.
The prime minister made the claim while responding to the Sydney Daily Telegraph’s Friday front page depiction of him as Mr Rude, a character from the Mr Men children’s book series.
The story stemmed from claims Mr Rudd was rude to a makeup artist before this week’s leaders’ debate.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/18618447/murdoch-press-taking-a-club-to-govt-rudd/
Okay, I finally get what this ‘makeupgate’ thing is now. But seriously Labor, can we drop the whingeing about Murdoch? You had a chance in govt to something about regulating the media so as to improve the quality of its reporting and output and didn’t.
Next time you are in govt, remember: get ruthless, or go home.
womble
If Carlton get beaten they could always send one of the runners over to Mexico for some MS drugs, send somebody else over to the abbattoir for some calf’s blood, send somebody else over to a dairy to milk a cow about to calve, and somebody else over to the vets for some horse liniment. Not sure where they would get the pig brain stuff from, though.
As for eye of newt, forgeddaboutit.
Today’s vote compass tells a story. AM did a forum. No trust in FNQ for either major party they feel ignored. Bruce Highway major example.
When people feel ignored strange things happens With CSG an issue as well and Greens and Katter pushing seriously a two part poll will not give real results. The last election formula fails.
So while on a two party basis those FNQ seats look bad for Labor if Katter is capturing dissatisfaction and preferencing Labor it could get very interesting indeed.
Listened to David Briggs, head of Galaxy on Radio National this morning talking about the latest batch of polls. Key points are:
1. These are ROBO POLLS
2. NewsLtd commissioned polling in 10 ALP held marginal seats.
3. MOE is 4%
v
Take your pick
http://photobucket.com/images/rotten%20apple?page=1
sprocket
Thanks for that. I did not realise these were robocalls. Interesting…..
Why do I get the feeling that every time someone tosses a Labor straw up into the wind, it gets blown away?
confessions and Boerwar
[After all, Abbott might be master at speaking concisely, but his words are empty!]
That should have been my next paragraph.
The result is that people turn with relief to something they understand – sport.
Boerwar
That trick aint going to work.
Which one is the lesser rotten apple?