GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has electorate-level polls from 10 marginal seats in New South Wales and Victoria, collectively painting a grim picture for Labor. There is also a Newspoll survey of 502 respondents showing Peter Beattie trailing by 54-46 in Forde (a swing to the Liberal National Party of about 2%), from primary votes of 38% for Labor (37.4% at the 2010 election), 48% for the Coalition (44.1%) and 5% for the Greens (12.2%). The Galaxy poll has apparently targeted 550 to 600 respondents per electorate for a margin of error of 4%. (UPDATE: These turn out to be automated polls, and not live interviewer polls like Galaxy normally does.)
In the Sydney seats:
Lindsay. A 54-46 lead to the Liberals, a swing of about 5%.
Banks. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 3.5%.
Werriwa. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 9%.
Reid. A 53-47 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 6%.
Greenway. A 51-49 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 2%.
Parramatta. 50-50, a swing of about 5.5%.
Barton. Labor ahead 52-48, a swing of 5%.
In Victoria:
La Trobe. The Liberals lead 51-49, a swing of 3%, from primary votes of 36% for Labor and 45% for the Liberals.
Corangamite. The Liberals lead 56-44, a swing of slightly over 6%.
Chisholm. Labor leads 52-48, a Liberal swing of 4%.
Today also brought a Lonergan automated poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which remarkably showed him trailing Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson 52-48 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). Either in anticipation of or in reaction to the inevitably skeptical response, the company’s principal Chris Lonergan penned a rather informative piece on methodology for The Guardian.
UPDATE: The bit below has been amended to account for the fact that the Galaxy polls were automated, which means there is actually very little basis for comparing automated and live interview electorate polls.
Which makes this a timely juncture to consider how polling of various kinds has performed during the campaign. The table below shows the number of polls conducted for each pollster and poll method together with the average Labor swing, at both electorate and national level. There follows, for your convenience, basic results for every electorate-level poll of the campaign barring a small number which did not involve Labor-versus-Coalition contest, together with the swings – not a single one of which is in Labor’s favour, emphasising the point that electorate-level has been much worse for Labor than national polling. However, since nearly all of this polling has mostly been of the automated phone variety, the question arises of whether this it to do with polling method, the particular challenges of electorate-level polling, or the peculiarities of the electorates being polled.
The only live interview electorate polls featured have been two from Newspoll, which makes their performance relative to automated phone polls hard to compare. However, there is a very large gap of 4.3% between national and electorate polls for automated pollsters. Non-phone methods, which have only been employed at national level, appear to have been more favourable for Labor, although there haven’t been very many of them (note that the two-party result being used from Morgan is the previous-election measure).
ELECTORATE POLLS # Swing Galaxy 10 5.1 ReachTEL 8 7.25 JWS Research 8 6 Lonergan 3 11.3 AUTOMATED 29 6.6 Newspoll (live interviewer) 2 4.5 TOTAL 31 6.5 NATIONAL POLLS # Swing Newspoll 2 3 Nielsen 1 2 Galaxy 2 1.5 LIVE INTERVIEW 6 2.2 ReachTEL 2 2.5 Lonergan 1 2 AUTOMATED 3 2.3 Essential 2 0 AMR Research 1 0 ONLINE 3 0 Morgan Multi-Mode 2 1.75 TOTAL 13 1.7 ELECTORATE POLL RESULTS Sample ALP Swing Griffith Lonergan 21/08/2013 958 48 10 Werriwa Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 9 Reid Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 47 6 Parramatta Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 50 4 Lindsay Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 46 5 La Trobe Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 3 Greenway Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 2 Forde Newspoll 20/08/2013 502 46 2 Corangamite Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 44 6 Chisholm Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 8 Barton Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 52 5 Banks Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 3 McMahon ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 47 11 Macquarie JWS Research 15/08/2013 710 45 4 Lindsay JWS Research 15/08/2013 578 39 12 Kingsford Smith ReachTEL 15/08/2013 610 48 7 Greenway JWS Research 15/08/2013 570 51 0 Forde Lonergan 15/08/2013 568 40 9 Forde JWS Research 15/08/2013 1160 40 9 Deakin ReachTEL 15/08/2013 619 47 4 Corangamite ReachTEL 15/08/2013 633 44 7 Corangamite JWS Research 15/08/2013 587 47 4 Brisbane JWS Research 15/08/2013 607 46 3 Blaxland ReachTEL 15/08/2013 636 52 10 Bennelong ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 35 12 Banks JWS Research 15/08/2013 542 47 4 Aston JWS Research 15/08/2013 577 37 12 Lindsay Lonergan 14/08/2013 1038 36 15 Dobell/RobertsonNewspoll 11/08/2013 505 46 7 Forde ReachTEL 08/08/2013 725 46 3 Griffith ReachTEL 05/08/2013 702 46 4
confessions
Murdoch is by far and away Australia’s single biggest democracy thief.
It is a bit rich though, Rudd complaining about the theft of democracy.
We need Nielsen or some other national poll to give a broader perspective.
I always thought that to ‘buy back’ anything, you first needed to have sold said item. Quite apart from that, isn’t this a further indication that the fiberals had no confidence in their ‘turn back the boats’ scam?
Heard yesterday that up to 20% of popn. are either not registered or didn’t vote last election. I’ve lost the link.
Someone said that this is bad news for democracy.
v
They are neither fit to be prime minister. That is all that really matters, IMHO.
Spider
Spot on!
lizzie
Thats a lot of people in the informal party.
lizzie:
Or they turn to Patrick dying in Offspring, which was responsible for more workplace animation and chatter than this election has been. 🙁
Boerwra
Okay I get it. For you it does not matter who governs this country after the 7th Sep, , as both parties are as bad as each other
“@leoniemellor: Mal Brough changes seating arrangements in ABC studio. Refuses to sit next to Peter Slipper. “I’m not playing your games”, he says.@abcnews”
Boerwar:
Yes indeed. It also speaks to his enormous glass jaw and sense of entitlement IMO.
Ah, I see the sleight of hand from Murdoch organs
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2013/08/22/1226702/441730-aus-news-file-forde-np.pdf
this graphic combines the NewsPoll in Forde – done on the telephone by trained interviewers, with the Galaxy rseults at the bottom. The two results are conflated.
But the ROBO POLL methodology of the Galaxy is not mentioned.
[Mal Brough changes seating arrangements in ABC studio. Refuses to sit next to Peter Slipper. “I’m not playing your games”, he says.]
Speaking of glass jaws and senses of entitlement!
@joshgnosis: Here’s gay Liberal candidate for Sydney Sean O’Connor’s HTV http://t.co/QW1DoKVgsB Christian Democrats above Labor and the Greens.
How nice for former Murdoch employee Tony Abbott to donate $5 million of taxpayer money to the NRL club 68% owned by his former employer Murdoch.
It was just happenchance that this was on the same day that Abbott was due to debate Rudd at the Broncos Club with many of the attendees being Bronco supporters.
confessions
I have been amazed at the number of people whose conversation revolves around TV and films. No wonder their knowledge of the real world is so shallow. This is particularly true of the hosts on overnight radio.
lizzie
Do you understand sport? I have read tens of thousands of words about Essendon and am still not much the wiser. The thing that staggers me is that pharmacologically, most of the injections had at most placebo effects, and, at worst either no bad side effects or side effects that no-one knows about.
Apart from Melantonin 2 of course. There are two bits of evidence about whether Hird injected this. He says no. The other guy says yes. (Apparently one of the reasons Hird is pissed off is that either ASADA or Essendon or both chose the other guy’s story) One side of the evidence is that Hird self-injected Melantonin 2 and suffered one of the possible side effects – a sustained and prolonged erection. The other side of the story (Hird’s) is that he didn’t. Take your pick, I suppose.
Many of the people concerned seem to have had knocks on the head during their footy careers because the memory functions appear to have been impaired – how else to explain so much conflicting evidence?
Anyhoo.
Reputational damage to the AFL brand? IMHO, that is now beyond a shadow of a doubt.
Sport simple? uh uh.
just read the story about the mmake up artist
now abbott even kisses nuns so I suppose he just
one of those guys
u know/
has …. considered the pm of the country actualy has a brain
and concentrates and was thinking about what he was going to say
WHY do people need make up any way
ive met smooth talkers in my life time
and they have never impressed me nothing much to discuss only that look u know the look
ran a mile,
Boerwar
James Hird presser at 11.30 am
v
It does matter, but it does not matter much as sending a signal that we are no longer satisfied with parties putting up people who are unfit to be prime minister.
In a sense it is about the election after this, rather than this election.
“@GrogsGamut: Anyone want to open a 2nd hand boat selling business Indonesia? We’ve got a willing buyer for all our boats…”
Why is it when I see the name Mal Brough I think of Malboro?
Boerwar
Fair enough
Another interesting result from Vote Compass which is not a poll as such ABC stressing today. Taxing Miners popularity is high only 10% oppose. 800 000 people
Meguire Bob: Of course, I forgot all about the great big media conspiracy. You’re obviously right: all the polls are wrong. Of course.
guytaur
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 9:06 am | PERMALINK
“@leoniemellor: Mal Brough changes seating arrangements in ABC studio. Refuses to sit next to Peter Slipper. “I’m not playing your games”, he says.@abcnews”
———-
lol
Boerwar
I take a “wifely” interest in AFL to the extent that I politely enquire how OH’s team went each weekend, aand try to conjure up a little enthusiasm if they have won. Other than that, I find sportspeople’s clichés boring and unintelligible.
Far more interesting to me was your comment about the clearance of mangroves which affects the breeding population of fishes. Has more concrete affect on our lives, too.
Davo
The polls are not right that for sure. there is no election held now
“@cyenne40: When exactly did “Stop The Boats” become “Shop For Boats”? #AusVotes #auspol”
[Abbott releases boats for clunkers policy #auspol #ausvotes]
v
My guess is that he will be standing aside or resigning, for the good of the team and of the game. IMHO there have been four Hird killers:
The first Hird killer was that the drugs/supplements program was out of control when it should have been under control.
The other three Hird killers came yesterday, IMHO. The mother or pretend mother, who knows?, talking about the damage to her son, an Essendon player.
Hird’s decision to go to the Supreme Court. He was entitled but the writ, in and of itself, posed indirect threats to many, many vested interests in a billion dollar investment. (They want to keep control of the rules over player contracts and player movements between clubs, for example – and not allow that to drift into the legal industry).
All the other clubs fell publicly and unreservedly in line behind the AFL Commission.
[confessions
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 9:02 am | Permalink
We need Nielsen or some other national poll to give a broader perspective]
Fess
Good comment. Of the cluster of seats shown above, only two appear to me to be definitely gone – Lindsay and Corangamite – although at 53-47 Reid can probably be thrown in as well. Perspective is what is definitely needed at the moment.
Boerwar
Agree with your assessment.
James Hird should have resigned back in Feb. having observed his messiah complex over the past six months, it would not surprise me if he dug in his heels.
“@latikambourke: Tony Abbott crawling and jumping over guys doing a boot camp with him. Seriously odd pictures. #AusVotes”
I have a friend of a friend who wants Mr Morrison’s address. He thinks he can do a good deal with Mr Morrison:
“@latikambourke: Sweat is literally POURING off Tony Abbott’s face as he holds an air squat. Again. Strange, strange pictures. #AusVotes”
Maguire Bob: True, but unfortunately for you, the central fact is not going to change. You can go on and on and on and on about it like a Kevin Rudd speech – but it won’t matter.
guytaur
Do we really want a PM who prefers physical activity to reading stuff?
guytaur
Where are these pictures?
The WA State Liberal Government may be in breach of international law by charging 457 visa scheme workers $4,000 a child to attend public school because free education is deemed a right.
The Liberals introduced this fee to help stump up their budget failures and have factored the revenue into their forward budget estimates.
It is now being found that many of the 457 workers will now leave Australia because they cannot afford an education for their kids.
If we follow the mantra, 457 workers fill a skills shortage and that there are no Aussie workers that are qualified to carry out the work, Australia loses that “expertise”.
What will Gina and Twiggy do?
victoria
None shown yet. Latika has not posted any. Must have a feature phone without a camera.
Abbott and Shorten pressers imminent
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2013/08/22/1226702/441730-aus-news-file-forde-np.pdf
JUST FOUND THIS ON TWITTER
take a look read
AA
‘The WA State Liberal Government may be in breach of international law by charging 457 visa scheme workers $4,000 a child to attend public school because free education is deemed a right.’
There is no such thing as ‘free’ education. Someone always pays for it because school buildings, materials, school buses and teachers do not materialize out of thin air. The question is who pays for it.
The fair solution appears to be not to allow children of 457 workers to come to Australia.
Shorten presser now
Do 457 visa workers pay tax and provide other revenue to the State and Commonwealth Governments? If so, what’s the rationale for charging them extra for services?
Socrates @ 76
With the utmost respect your figures for the PPL (bolded above) are nonsense.
1. The LNP PPL doesn’t start till 2015-16 so it only hits 2 years of the 4 year forward estimates.
2. Its cost in he first full year of the scheme is estimated at $5.5B The cost of the current Labor PPL in that year is estimated at $2B.
3. In 2016-17 based on an analysis of the Green scheme which is similar and has been fully released it is fully funded.
New PPL gross cost -$5.5B
Less existing scheme $2.0B
PPL net cost -$3.5B
Lower family payments $0.2B
Increased personal tax $0.9B
Closing public sector schemes $0.2B
PPL levy on 3200 companies $2.2B
Total cost $0
Company tax cut -$2.5B
Source: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/when-push-comes-to-shove-firms-to-win-on-tax-give-and-take/story-e6frg9qo-1226702423733
Unions Australia @unionsaustralia 23h
Abetz lets slip real IR agenda – no pay rises without loss of penalty rates & conditions. | http://bit.ly/1bUtZhG #ausunions #auspol
Retweeted 46 times
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http://www.actu.org.au/Media/Mediareleases/AbetzletsslipCoalitionsrealIRagendanopayriseswithoutlossofpenaltyratesandconditions.aspx
August, 2013 | Media Release
Eric Abetz has confirmed today that an Abbott Government will try and stop workers getting pay rises above inflation unless they give up conditions.
ACTU Secretary Dave Oliver said Mr Abetz’s comments in The Australian this morning that the Coalition would demand “excessive” wage rises include productivity reforms should ring alarm bells for workers, particularly given his comments on penalty rates.
“It is unbelievable that a Coalition Government would try and tear up agreements negotiated freely between workers and employers if they do not meet their version of what is an acceptable pay rise,’ Mr Oliver said.
READ MORE
Shop for boats. Hah!
It’s amazing close considering how named and ‘1984’ Murdoch’s support is.
I think it’s quite clear Abbott would be losing this race without it.
That why he owes a foreign billionaire so much.
Raises grave questions over his ability to represent us.