GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has electorate-level polls from 10 marginal seats in New South Wales and Victoria, collectively painting a grim picture for Labor. There is also a Newspoll survey of 502 respondents showing Peter Beattie trailing by 54-46 in Forde (a swing to the Liberal National Party of about 2%), from primary votes of 38% for Labor (37.4% at the 2010 election), 48% for the Coalition (44.1%) and 5% for the Greens (12.2%). The Galaxy poll has apparently targeted 550 to 600 respondents per electorate for a margin of error of 4%. (UPDATE: These turn out to be automated polls, and not live interviewer polls like Galaxy normally does.)
In the Sydney seats:
Lindsay. A 54-46 lead to the Liberals, a swing of about 5%.
Banks. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 3.5%.
Werriwa. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 9%.
Reid. A 53-47 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 6%.
Greenway. A 51-49 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 2%.
Parramatta. 50-50, a swing of about 5.5%.
Barton. Labor ahead 52-48, a swing of 5%.
In Victoria:
La Trobe. The Liberals lead 51-49, a swing of 3%, from primary votes of 36% for Labor and 45% for the Liberals.
Corangamite. The Liberals lead 56-44, a swing of slightly over 6%.
Chisholm. Labor leads 52-48, a Liberal swing of 4%.
Today also brought a Lonergan automated poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which remarkably showed him trailing Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson 52-48 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). Either in anticipation of or in reaction to the inevitably skeptical response, the company’s principal Chris Lonergan penned a rather informative piece on methodology for The Guardian.
UPDATE: The bit below has been amended to account for the fact that the Galaxy polls were automated, which means there is actually very little basis for comparing automated and live interview electorate polls.
Which makes this a timely juncture to consider how polling of various kinds has performed during the campaign. The table below shows the number of polls conducted for each pollster and poll method together with the average Labor swing, at both electorate and national level. There follows, for your convenience, basic results for every electorate-level poll of the campaign barring a small number which did not involve Labor-versus-Coalition contest, together with the swings – not a single one of which is in Labor’s favour, emphasising the point that electorate-level has been much worse for Labor than national polling. However, since nearly all of this polling has mostly been of the automated phone variety, the question arises of whether this it to do with polling method, the particular challenges of electorate-level polling, or the peculiarities of the electorates being polled.
The only live interview electorate polls featured have been two from Newspoll, which makes their performance relative to automated phone polls hard to compare. However, there is a very large gap of 4.3% between national and electorate polls for automated pollsters. Non-phone methods, which have only been employed at national level, appear to have been more favourable for Labor, although there haven’t been very many of them (note that the two-party result being used from Morgan is the previous-election measure).
ELECTORATE POLLS # Swing Galaxy 10 5.1 ReachTEL 8 7.25 JWS Research 8 6 Lonergan 3 11.3 AUTOMATED 29 6.6 Newspoll (live interviewer) 2 4.5 TOTAL 31 6.5 NATIONAL POLLS # Swing Newspoll 2 3 Nielsen 1 2 Galaxy 2 1.5 LIVE INTERVIEW 6 2.2 ReachTEL 2 2.5 Lonergan 1 2 AUTOMATED 3 2.3 Essential 2 0 AMR Research 1 0 ONLINE 3 0 Morgan Multi-Mode 2 1.75 TOTAL 13 1.7 ELECTORATE POLL RESULTS Sample ALP Swing Griffith Lonergan 21/08/2013 958 48 10 Werriwa Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 9 Reid Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 47 6 Parramatta Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 50 4 Lindsay Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 46 5 La Trobe Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 3 Greenway Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 2 Forde Newspoll 20/08/2013 502 46 2 Corangamite Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 44 6 Chisholm Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 8 Barton Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 52 5 Banks Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 3 McMahon ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 47 11 Macquarie JWS Research 15/08/2013 710 45 4 Lindsay JWS Research 15/08/2013 578 39 12 Kingsford Smith ReachTEL 15/08/2013 610 48 7 Greenway JWS Research 15/08/2013 570 51 0 Forde Lonergan 15/08/2013 568 40 9 Forde JWS Research 15/08/2013 1160 40 9 Deakin ReachTEL 15/08/2013 619 47 4 Corangamite ReachTEL 15/08/2013 633 44 7 Corangamite JWS Research 15/08/2013 587 47 4 Brisbane JWS Research 15/08/2013 607 46 3 Blaxland ReachTEL 15/08/2013 636 52 10 Bennelong ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 35 12 Banks JWS Research 15/08/2013 542 47 4 Aston JWS Research 15/08/2013 577 37 12 Lindsay Lonergan 14/08/2013 1038 36 15 Dobell/RobertsonNewspoll 11/08/2013 505 46 7 Forde ReachTEL 08/08/2013 725 46 3 Griffith ReachTEL 05/08/2013 702 46 4
Now – that’s a nice Compact – Shimano Dura-Ace 50/34T.
@davidwh/799
And our money.
Gauss
Betting markets precedent – a labor win
Fran @ 784
I liked your post. Seems to me the Libs don’t really have a philosophy to follow. Just “we’re not Labor”.
Scoot reckons he is going to buy up to 500,000 boats to save lives.
Good bloke, Scoot.
What the Indonesians will be thinking is that Australians have gone barking mad.
Victoria – there are plenty of reasons to take the piss out of the policy but that is a serious micro-economic analysis.
If you are a fisherman thinking of unloading your clunker boat and you know there is the potential for the next Australian Government to buy it then you are goign to hold out for a premium at the moment.
Same thing happened in the Australian Car Clunker market for a short while.
*Sells crappy boat to stupid white guy at massively inflated price*
*buys two boats*
Isn’t Scoot sending The Envoy to the wrong place?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkHn7WFrzCU
poroti/TLBD/BW
Wiki is correct – it was Heard Island.
[According to the environmental advocacy group Oceana, Viarsa 1 was scrapped at an Indian shipyard.]
I guess the C’wlth must have stuck to its guns.
The boat was a very well equipped thing from what I could tell.
Compact
I know Sooot and Abbott and the rest of the coalition are barking mad, but dont follow them into the rabbit hole.
Yoyoma Bones @796 – only problemn with your analysis is that it implies that Gillard should never have been elected in 2010 – and I’m sure you don’t believe that.
[Tony Abbott’s parental leave scheme is under mounting pressure, with his political mentor Nick Minchin joining a growing list of Liberals and Nationals opposed to the policy.
Mr Minchin, a former finance minister who helped Mr Abbott overthrow Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal Party leader, smiled sheepishly when asked on ABC television whether the Opposition Leader’s $5.5 billion-a-year parental leave scheme was “defensible”.
“There is a finance ministers’ club and we always oppose all entitlement schemes of this kind,” Mr Minchin said on Friday.
Several Liberal frontbenchers and many Nationals strongly disagree with Mr Abbott’s paid parental scheme. It is believed that many of these internal opponents are holding their tongues until after the election, but are privately saying they think the policy is unaffordable and irresponsible.]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/nick-minchin-joins-opposition-to-parental-leave-policy-20130823-2sgjz.html#ixzz2clnc7SND
It’s not even whether you think Abbott would be good or bad for the country. It’s a fundamental question about basic competency to be PM. Based on the latest policy announcement to buy back leaky old boats from Indonesian fishermen, who can seriously say that he’s ready to be prime minister?
[@Wil_Anderson
Shame on those who say Tony Abbott doesn’t have a climate policy. When the oceans rise we will have all those boats! #TwoBirds]
OK, guys, do you think Scoot would buy that one?
[It’s not even whether you think Abbott would be good or bad for the country. It’s a fundamental question about basic competency to be PM. Based on the latest policy announcement to buy back leaky old boats from Indonesian fishermen, who can seriously say that he’s ready to be prime minister?]
Millions of Indonesian fishermen would vote for Abbott given the chance.
For every dollar they spend on boats could be, they could be giving Australia a helping hand in the economy.
Coalition Party are not ready to govern.
727
my say
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 3:23 pm | PERMALINK
http://www.iwantmynbn.com.au/
benefit facts,,, see the adds for the nbn.
====================================================
PLEASE PASS ON FOR FACE BOOK AND FREINDS WITH EMAILS
dam shame this place was not modern so the videos could of been shown
——————————————————————————————-
Damn shame you are using this forum as a public convenience,
There goes the AUSAID budget down the tubes.
[it was Heard Island]
did you mean “I heard it was Ireland?”
Apparently they are getting back to playing footie this weekend.
Compact Crank @ 812 – Actually I don’t think Gillard should have been elected PM in 2010 – it should have been Rudd 😛
Crank
whats you new pitch?
You avatar
Chico Marx
[From the Age: a capped boat buy-back scheme that provides an incentive for owners of dangerous vessels to sell them to government officials, not people smugglers]
Obviously Abbott and Morrison will identify which boats to buy – those with a destination board that says “Australia” and have a ticket seller at the gangplank.
[I just got robopolled by Lonergan!
LNP: Press 1
ALP: Press 2
GRN: Press 3
Receive cash transfer of $1,5m from Barrister Mr. Johnson Nkomo, Nigerian Development Bank: Press 4]
And you can vote twice so Lefty E is shouting the election party
]
[There is a finance ministers’ club and we always oppose all entitlement schemes of this kind,” Mr Minchin said on Friday.]
Munchkin is a finance minister? What- the secret world illuminati gummint?
What you will not read in the MSM.
‘Crikey says: the one list you must read
A short list to illustrate the US government’s priorities when it comes to military justice:
Twenty-four unarmed Iraqi men, women and children were killed by US marines in Haditha, Iraq, in 2005. Result: staff Sgt Frank Wuterich convicted of a single count of negligent dereliction of duty, sentenced to three months’ jail, suspended, and a pay-and-rank reduction;
Blackwater military contractors killed 17 civilians and injured 20 more in Baghdad in 2007. Result: a US judge dismissed charges against four “contractors” in 2009. The charges were reinstated in 2011; proceedings are ongoing;
In 2007, airstrikes from US helicopters killed two Reuters journalists and a number of civilians and injured others, including two children in a van that stopped to help one of the injured men. Result: no charges;
In a 2004 US assault on the Iraqi city of Fallujah, 800 civilians were killed, unarmed and bound prisoners were executed, and white phosphorous was used. Since then, there has been a massive increase in childhood cancers and infant mortality there. Result: no action;
In 2002, in Uruzgan province, Afghanistan, 30 people were killed when US forces bombed a wedding party. Result: no action;
In 2008 in Deh Bala, Afghanistan, 47 people (mostly women and children) were killed when US aircraft bombed a wedding party. Result: no action;
Between 2004 and 2013, at least 168 children, and likely many more, have been killed by US drone attacks. Result: Pentagon recently agreed drone operators will be awarded a special “distinguishing device,” after a backlash against earlier decision to award medals;
In 2011, Denver teenager Abdulrahamn al-Awlaki was killed with six other civilians in a US drone strike while eating dinner at a Yemeni village. Result: the man who ordered the strike, John Brennan, was promoted to head the CIA.
In contrast, in 2010: Chelsea (then Bradley) Manning released material revealing war crimes, corruption, State Department spying and much else by the US government. The US government later admitted, after an extensive study, that no one had been harmed as a result.
Result: Manning sentenced to 35 years’ jail.’
The thing is, guys, that we have been allies of the US in all but the last line. What accountability do we need to accept for being an ally that does sort of stuff? Can we just ignore it as being the other fella’s business? Or do we accept that as allies, we should, at the very least intervene with the actions of our allies that we find questionable, wrong, illegal or a major crime against humanity?
No discussion about this democracy underpinning issue by either Rudd nor Abbott. It is yet another reason why neither is fit to be prime minister.
Will it be Indonesian officials buying the boats when safe to do so? Why not just give them the money.
shellbell
Did the Secular Party or the Informal Party get a run?
James Heard Island?
Ah, that explains a lot.
John Gay did better than John Hartman
http://www.smh.com.au/business/insider-trader-wins-early-release-20111207-1ohxj.html
Oh yeah, lets dump Gillard for Rudd.
How’s that working for you, fellas?
Stupid idea. But an electoral drubbing will finally see Rudd leave politics, Abbott and the austerity he is dying to impose should make his a one–term government—a troubled, divided govt I would say. Pity about the NBN—WTF is out selling that? NDIS, Gonski, PPl, Carbon Price etc?
[Obviously Abbott and Morrison will identify which boats to buy – those with a destination board that says “Australia” and have a ticket seller at the gangplank]….segue to joke about Oirishmen hiring fishing boat?
As I asked earlier, what possessed them to announce this brain fart. If the polls are to be believed, they are going to romp home. Was there any need for them to announce this joke?
Really, if the coalition is going into the marine business, they’d be better off building the boats under contract in Indonesia and leasing them to fisherfolk at concessional rates for fishing. They could also lease them the gear for fishing –all in exchange for handing over their unseaworthy vessels — which they could then scuttle. Since they no longer own boats, they can’t sell them, but there’s no new market for boats, and so no supply.
Since the fisher folk now have a direct relationship with the Australian government marine company and no means to supply the ad hoc travel market agents, the said agents will have to source their boats elsewhere.
This would have the upside of being a kind of aid policy to poor people. It would be very expensive but at least the benefits would go to people who weren’t wealthy and who really weren’t up to navigating in open sea on overloaded boats.
OK … cancel that thought … the LNP might be listening.
Abbott anunces “Cash for Sinkers”
Tony Abbott has changed his mind on stimulus programs, and promisd to put one into action for the Indonesian boat building industry. Calling his policy “Cash for Sinkers”, Abbott has promisd to buy back old boats from Indonesian fisherman. He noted that Indonesia was an island nation with over 200 million people living on over 10,000 islands. There were over 100,000 boats, ensuring that this program would be “quick, cheap and effective”, said Abbott.
Abbott said that his policy was nothing like Julia Gillard’s “cash for clunkers” scheme.
“Cash for clunkers was policy on the run, made in panic, during an election campaign, that had been tried elsewhere and failed” said Abbott. “Nobody has bene stupid enough to do this before.”
BW
I like the idea of all small parties participating in a debate including the secs. and the informals
Kinkajou
[did you mean “I heard it was Ireland?”]
They’ve got the necessary ice-bergs nearby but it’s a long way from our patrol area.
And no Toothfish! (But they could supply the mad Volvo around the World single sailor as required for the Southern Ocean).
😆
[And you can vote twice so Lefty E is shouting the election party]
For sure. I gave Lonergan my bank a/c details. Shouldnt be long now!
LOL, check the latest Essential and Newpoll state breakdowns for exactly how Rudd is doing better than Gillard in every state (bar VIC, from memory, where its the same).
Nice try though.
the dog is right….nice kerosene bath for the populace, dislodge some ticks and anything that gets stolen can always get stolen back by the next gummint.
End speed date. Home to la criquet, la foote and le vin rouge.
Fran
[they’d be better off building the boats under contract in Indonesia]
Apparently the fish are a bit scarce.
Have a good weekend all. Good luck Aussie cricketers; Essendon – for shame!
I don’t know what the next poll will be but Labor has had a far better week, easily its best in the campaign so far. Rudd has shown some energy and passion, the message has been well targeted and consistent, and Abbott has snapped under pressure. Keep going. Abbott should be hammered over his funding lies and planned cuts and taxes on super from now till polling day.
vic
The Libs have lost boats and the carbon tax as election issues, they have to rely on the economy and are crapping their budgies over Saul Eastlake’s $30 billion.
The nasties have to come out, if they leave it till Thursday pre Polling day (the plan) they will be rubbished, there is no reason not to release everything after the “Launch” in Brisbane.
Funny how telling people what the election will be about never seems to work.
[And no Toothfish]
not even Orange Roughie
Na he’s a Hawks player
I don’t know what WW is asking Scoot but “Have you gone stark raving mad?” would be a good start.
The best thing about the Boat Buying Policy announcement is the Lefty Head Exploding – yep, it’s a pretty dumb policy that will die a natural death – but it ain’t going to stop Australia kicking the ALP out on it’s arse – I’m still predicting around about 4.5% 2PP swing against ALP and a collapse in the Green vote of at least 20% (of total numbers) loss in FPP.
ru
But surely this boats buy back is a bridge too far??