Today’s Australian brings state and demographic breakdowns from the combined results of the Newspoll surveys of August 9-11 and August 16-18, which respectively came in at 52-48 and 54-46 in favour of the Coalition. The overall sample is 2826 respondents, with sample sizes for each state ranging from 458 to 659. The narrowness of the range suggests the super-sized sample in this week’s poll was used to boost the numbers from the smaller states, by way of reducing the margins of error on today’s state breakdowns, the largest of which is 4.6%. The salient points:
• New South Wales looks to have done the damage in Labor’s weak ratings of late, the published two-party preferred coming in at 57-43. As you can see from the sidebar, this is a fair bit worse for Labor than the published and unpublished state-level numbers from other pollsters which have been used to determine the current BludgerTrack results.
• Victoria on the hand swings heavily the other way, a 54-46 lead for Labor suggesting only a swing to the Coalition of a little over 1%. This includes a 17% result for the Greens which most would consider a bit hard to credit, given the 12.7% result from 2010 and the general trend of the party’s fortunes.
• The numbers show Labor looking alive in all-important Queensland, a 53-47 lead to the Liberal National Party implying a swing to Labor of around 2%.
• The Western Australian results on the other hand paint a very different picture from one that has long seemed overly favourable to Labor in BludgerTrack. The two-party result is 59-41, implying a swing to the Coalition of around 2.5% off an already very high base. It should be noted though that it’s around here that the margins of error start to push north of 4%.
• A 54-46 lead to the Coalition in South Australia is in line with talk that Labor should be concerned about Hindmarsh and perhaps one or two other seats in the state, suggesting as it does a swing of about 7%.
• Personal ratings don’t show a huge amount of interstate variation for Kevin Rudd, with Victoria being effectively even with his home state for his best net approval rating. His approval rating is higher among men (39%) than women (35%).
• Tony Abbott on the other hand rates considerably lower in Victoria (a net approval of minus 20%) than in New South Wales and Queensland (minus 5%).
I’ll be running all that through the BludgerTrack updatermator later today. You can view the full tables on voting intention here. You can also view aggregated state breakdowns for Essential Research here if you’re a Crikey subscriber, as you should be.
UPDATE: The Guardian has a Lonergan poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith which is raising a few eyebrows by showing his Liberal National Party opponent Bill Glasson leading 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). However, it’s well worth pointing out that Lonergan’s own blog reprints an article from Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation which suggests we “trust the national polls much more than the marginal seat polls because the national polls have a good track record at predicting elections, while the robopolls are fairly new”.
pithicus
Hird allegedly took melanotan, not melatonin.
zoidlord @797
Only $30B. Hell, they are doing better than the (400 times over) promised surplus by the sheltered workshop expert Swanny and ended up with > $30B deficit.
I heard a rumour that Dutton was the Opposition Health spokesperson.
Can anyone confirm this?
cheers Diog
I realised shortly after I re-read your first post
[ In the last 17 years, we have 11:6 which is 65% to 35%, Coalition to Labor. ]
economic and social reform followed by wars and workchoices followed by whatever the good guys could do against whatever the Coalition has become
@morpheus/802
Excuses Morpheus.
When you stop deflecting, like a Politician, then perhaps I might take you seriously.
[Dutton has found. He finally escaped from the bonds and has released a health policy, or at least what passes for a policy in the Liberal Party]
The main policy points are less controls on clinical trials, removing ethics committee oversights and approving all drugs.
AMGEN are getting value for their polly pedal sponsorship.
oh sorry, i was going back a bit too far there
Interesting analysis Bluepill @8:14.
Another statistic – average time between changes of Government Federally since 1930 is just over 9 years – so 3 or 4 terms. The last one term Federal Government was Scullin from late 1929 to early 1931. Still, I’m hoping that the coming Abbott Government will break both molds. A couple of years to see him in action and experience of the coming cuts and privatisations and seeing Abbott making an idiot of himself at home and abroad. Hopefully he’ll be gone before he does too much damage.
How can a single ALP supporter bleat AT ALL about costings after their last two disgraceful elections…
48 hours and 24 hours before booths opened!!!
DO you think Australians are utterly stupid????
You cannot possibly give stick to the coalition for adopting an identical strategy.
Who could possibly defend this?
If you really had anything to convince Australians that the worst government in Australian Federal history should be returned we would be hearing it.
Instead the whiny, hypocritical mantra about costings is your best card.
Stand on your record. Go on. The nasty MSM is against you but you can’t help but have hours and hours of pressers in elections.. why doesn’t Kevin wax lyrical about your record.. I’m not hearing that. 80% of his talk is about his opposition.
In a debate, even at secondary school level, the ALP would lose on matter.. there just isn’t enough, no matter how much you rebut the opposition.
To complain about costings though is rank hypocrisy and now, glaringly, the electorate has been made aware of this and, like your strident hysterical scaremongering, erodes trust, the most important commodity in this election.
@bluepill/810
So it’s ok for Coalition to say how much waste (lol) they (labor) spent, but not ok for Labor to find out how much services etc is going to be cut?
Right the only hypercritical is that of PB.
Yeah that just means 65% lazy good times, 35% we needed a serious refomist government to help us through new challenges.
Lucky country I guess, or we’d have seen less of the LNP.
LNP always gets turfed in the bin as soon as there’s a major challenge: WW1, WW2, Britain entering common market/ oil crisis, GFC looming. I did an excellent post on this the other day.
Wow. Makeupgate has really rattled the leftards. Especially the unionists supporting the ALP. No wonder the poor woman removed the tweet. The CFMEU had probably already had the thugs knocking on her door.
Whore never the less in the eyes of the cretins.
[ How can Labor win from here? The opposition could make mistakes, of course.
(Actually, while commentators through the prism of the polls are seeing a flawless Coalition campaign, it hasn’t really been that. If the government is re-elected we’ll hear all about the Liberals’ mistakes from 8 September.)
There are things I believe the government could do. For example, I reckon more “why” is needed for the horror story of Abbott’s secret cuts agenda.
Why would Abbott as prime minister embark on a mad slash and burn? It can’t be because he’s an economic fanatic, as Keating painted John Hewson two decades ago. Tony’s not much interested in economics.
Might instead the boyish, remodelled Tony, when in power, be easily pushed around by people with stronger personalities?
Then you have mayhem, a figurehead leader, the unleashing of dark, unpredictable forces. That’s a scarier story. ]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/half_time_whistle/
As I keep saying, Abbott is a puppet, beholden to the string-pullers in his party. We’ve seen time and time again just how he is pushed around by those string-pullers: unable to secure his preferred candidates in winnable Liberal seats, unable to ditch the incompetent, wastes of space on his front bench, having to submit himself to an extreme PR straitjacket script 24/7 (has any leader in history required such extensive stage management?) in order to shield The Real Tony Abbott from the voting public. And having to practically plead with his partyroom to let him keep PPL – which is why I reckon it’ll be gone if they win the election. He is only settling the horses by telling them it’s just for the election.
zoidlord @811
“So it’s ok for Coalition to say how much waste (lol) they (labor) spent, but not ok for Labor to find out how much services etc is going to be cut?”
Why, so Messiah Kev can steal another policy and claim it as his. He is as bereft of policy as he is of “friends”.
[The main policy points are less controls on clinical trials, removing ethics committee oversights and approving all drugs.
AMGEN are getting value for their polly pedal sponsorship.]
Seriously?! Four years as shadow health minister, and this is the best he can come up with?
Why is there no media coverage of this?
@morpheus/813
HA, that looks photo-shopped.
Especially the F-Off section.
@morpheus/815
They both steal policies all the time, it’s nothing new.
Suggest you go back through like history.
[Makeupgate has really rattled the leftards.]
Aside from the fact I have no idea what ‘makeupgate’ is, is it really necessary to refer to commenters in language which mocks those living with intellectual disabilities?
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch_20.html
Poll roundup and seat betting watch for this week updated with my thoughts on Lonergan Griffith poll.
I believe that the scaling of results to self-reports of the 2010 election results is an unsound method and the likely cause of Lonergan getting results that are even worse for Labor than the other robopolls.
I have however seen Lonergan internal polling at state level in which they did not apply this correction. It may be they are doing it at seat level but not higher levels.
Until my concerns about them are addressed they are excluded from my federal aggregate and I am disregarding their seat polls.
btw, one of the people in that photo 813 seems to be a anti-labor/anti-union:
https://twitter.com/zozstar
Zoidlord
No, your argument is pure nonsense. The ALP released costings 24 hours before the last election.
There is NO excuse for an incumbent government to do that. Australia had just as much, if not MORE reason to know how the ALP was going to fund the pork barrelling by Gillard last election after the previous government ‘lost its way’.
The public, rightly, see right through this sheer hypocrisy.
We both know that the Coalition is most likely waiting for the blackout where it can avoid scrutiny though lying advertisements just like the ALP has done for the last two elections.
It is just unreal that ALP supporters would even TRY to justify this argument, it is a pile of warm poo.
[If you really had anything to convince Australians that the worst government in Australian Federal history should be returned we would be hearing it.]
Yes I do: It is is called THE ECONOMY STUPID. Do a simple comparison with the rest of the world you will find the Aust economy has been superbly managed.
Hard to believe that Rudd could lose his seat and fyi the betting markets have 1.08/8.00 for Rudd/Lib, but then it was hard to believe that Howard would. I’m guessing that it would be a dream result for most of the Laboristas on PB for Rudd to lose his seat but for ALP to win the election. That’s what you’d call a win-win-win for the ALP cheer squad (except Bemused): no Rudd, no Abbott, but a Labor govt. Of course it won’t happen. From Libs POV, and the most likely scenario … better to have Rudd still in the opposition mix if Libs win, a constant reminder and thorn in ALP’s side, plus a later by-election won by Libs to put the boot in about ALP/Rudd wasting taxpayer money.
@bluepill/822
Right.
Because we know from past experience that Coalition Party always do massive cuts.
Once again another liberal calling me a ALP supporter.
CTAR1
Just come back in n glass floor, but the building in still higher than we are allowed to go, I got a cricked neck trying to photo it above me, a wonderful experience but once only 😀 too many people. Went to the palm complexes museum,souks etc yesterday,plus the beaches my driver wanted to know if I wanted to go into the women’s only beach, I gave it a miss’ BTW only 44c today,been up for a swim at the hotel pool
POROTI
I always know when to come home, except politically speaking this time
Z
[calling me a ALP supporter]
Should he just call you anti-Lib?
Charles Richardson correctly forecast Howard to lose his seat based just off the likely state swing and the argument that Howard’s standing as PM did not protect him from the state swing since it was factored into his vote at the previous election.
This is different; we are supposed to believe a 10.5% seat swing in a state where there is approximately no state swing at the moment.
@mick77/827
No, Just someone who thinks that Coalition Party hasn’t really offered anything different for the last ~10 years.
confessions
I Think a select few of the coalition are aware that the PPL policy is not to be implimented. The anxt from a few of the nats is interesting. Perhaps keeping the lid on the true non future plans of the PPL at this time is important to Abbott.
A leak from anyone from the coalition about the probable non implementation would be disasterous.
Pure speculation of course.
Why isnt the cricket on GEM tonight?
Tasmanian polling coming this weekend, federal and state by ReachTEL. I was polled!
Questions:
Federal voter choice (options listed by candidate and party, options Wilkie, ALP, Lib, Grn, PUP, FF, Other, Undecided)
PPM Rudd/Abbott Forced choice
List of issues jobs, housing, health, environment, education, economy, same-sex marriage (don’t remember if undecided was an option)
State voting intention: ALP, Lib, Green, Ind/Other
State government performance: Very good, good, average, poor, very poor. (Don’t remember if undecided was an option).
Demographic questions just age and gender.
zoidlord @829
As opposed to the ALP who just recycles their leader at the first sign of bad polling. Yeah, thats a really stable situation right there. And worst of all, they are now stuck with Messiah Kev who makes Latham sound remotely sane.
In that light though you might get a laugh.
http://media.theage.com.au/national/selections/they-used-to-love-me-4683280.html
Z
[No, Just someone who thinks that Coalition Party hasn’t really offered anything different for the last ~10 years.]
And prior to that was not anti-Lib but sometimes voted Lib? Methinks not but I’ll stand corrected.
Mick 77
Half this room were calling Rudd a whiteanting bastard sociopath, less than 8 weeks ago. Now they fly his bloody flag??
Give me a faaaaaqing break.
You guys lie like it was your mother tongue. You no longer know how to tell the truth.
Same old lies:
1. Abbott ‘ripped’ 1 billion from the health budget when health minister
2. ’70 Billion’ black hole for the coalition
3. Gillard didn’t lie about the Carbon Tax
4. The ALP didn’t ruin a working border protection policy
5. Abbott will hike up GST
6. Abbott will cut health and education (currently only 24% of federal government expenditure combined) “services”
It doesn’t matter how much fact checking goes on, how much Kevin is exposed publicly lying about figures, how much ALP drones drivel the same knowingly wrong information, you just can’t tell the truth.
….ALP = Another Lying Party
pithicus:
Agreed. Labor could highlight this aspect which in turn raises questions about Abbott’s authority.
Rossmore:
It is raining.
Thanks Fess
@morpheus/833
Your forgetting that John Howard is a recycled Party Leader.
@Mick77/834
I voted for Libs in 2004 (howard).
After that, I voted for other parties.
Libs are swapping preferences with One Nation?
Wasn’t that long ago Abbott was getting them locked up. The lurch to the right for the Libs under Abbott is shocking
Mick 77
“Half this room were calling Rudd a whiteanting bastard sociopath, less than 8 weeks ago.”
That’s true. Yet, he’s STILL a better candidate than Abbott.
If could go to TAB would put $50,000 on Labor at 8/1 odds, would never do it for online betting,they go bankrupt, never see the $50,000 again or trace them
[ Abbott ‘ripped’ 1 billion from the health budget when health minister]
And he will rip another $1 billion out again.
Abbott “promised” today to maintain total health at its current level.
Abbott promised today to abolish the means test on the rebate for private health insurance.
The means test on private health insurance is a budget measure expected to bring in savings of $2.5 to $3 billion over the next three years, or close to $1 billion a year.
Give $1 billion a year in rebates on private health to the battlers on $200,000 plus a year.
And you have to rip $1 billion a year out of the rest of the health budget to keep it balanced.
Simple equation which none of the media have pointed out.
[Until my concerns about them are addressed they are excluded from my federal aggregate and I am disregarding their seat polls.]
Interesting KB. I feel this vindicates my stance, except nowwith added psepho-cred.
My conclusion: we know nothing reliable about seats robopolled by Lonergan.
[ Tuesday at 3pm, Riley spoke to Abbott’s office, provided a transcript and requested an interview. Abbott agreed. At 5.30pm, it was held
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/silence-speaks-louder-than-words-in-this-story-20110209-1an2a.html ]
bloody hell Abbott must have been doing the freaky noddy thing for over 2 1/2 hours
I agree Confessions, with your agreement with Mumble.
A Reachtel poll earlier this month had Rudd comfortably ahead in Griffith, so that Lonergan poll looks a bit odd.http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/federal-election-2013-griffith-poll
However, given Rudd’s relatively higher popularity in Queensland relative to the rest of the nation, I would expect him to do slightly worse in Griffith than he did in 2010 compared to the ALP’s performance in the rest of the state. Remember, in 2010 while Gillard was ALP leader he was still ALP candidate in Griffith so outperformed the ALP’s statewide performance, in 2013 he will be ALP leader so the ALP voteshare will increase across Queensland but in Griffith probably stay the same at best!
I think I’ll stick with Saul Eastlake’s estimate of a 30 billion black hole in coalition costings
Did you know that if you look at the last week then we have been in caretaker mode for 100% of the time? It’s like not having anyone in government at all!
Can the election be rained out as well?
[Abbott will hike up GST]
Of course he will.
He is on the record as promising each state a fairer share of the GST when they complain they are not getting enough GST.
Abbott can only increase the amount of GST to each state by hiking up the GST.
Again another simple equation which has not been followed up by the media.