Newspoll breakdowns

Aggregated results from the last two weeks show that Labor’s recent weakness in Newspoll has been driven by dire results from New South Wales.

Today’s Australian brings state and demographic breakdowns from the combined results of the Newspoll surveys of August 9-11 and August 16-18, which respectively came in at 52-48 and 54-46 in favour of the Coalition. The overall sample is 2826 respondents, with sample sizes for each state ranging from 458 to 659. The narrowness of the range suggests the super-sized sample in this week’s poll was used to boost the numbers from the smaller states, by way of reducing the margins of error on today’s state breakdowns, the largest of which is 4.6%. The salient points:

• New South Wales looks to have done the damage in Labor’s weak ratings of late, the published two-party preferred coming in at 57-43. As you can see from the sidebar, this is a fair bit worse for Labor than the published and unpublished state-level numbers from other pollsters which have been used to determine the current BludgerTrack results.

• Victoria on the hand swings heavily the other way, a 54-46 lead for Labor suggesting only a swing to the Coalition of a little over 1%. This includes a 17% result for the Greens which most would consider a bit hard to credit, given the 12.7% result from 2010 and the general trend of the party’s fortunes.

• The numbers show Labor looking alive in all-important Queensland, a 53-47 lead to the Liberal National Party implying a swing to Labor of around 2%.

• The Western Australian results on the other hand paint a very different picture from one that has long seemed overly favourable to Labor in BludgerTrack. The two-party result is 59-41, implying a swing to the Coalition of around 2.5% off an already very high base. It should be noted though that it’s around here that the margins of error start to push north of 4%.

• A 54-46 lead to the Coalition in South Australia is in line with talk that Labor should be concerned about Hindmarsh and perhaps one or two other seats in the state, suggesting as it does a swing of about 7%.

• Personal ratings don’t show a huge amount of interstate variation for Kevin Rudd, with Victoria being effectively even with his home state for his best net approval rating. His approval rating is higher among men (39%) than women (35%).

• Tony Abbott on the other hand rates considerably lower in Victoria (a net approval of minus 20%) than in New South Wales and Queensland (minus 5%).

I’ll be running all that through the BludgerTrack updatermator later today. You can view the full tables on voting intention here. You can also view aggregated state breakdowns for Essential Research here if you’re a Crikey subscriber, as you should be.

UPDATE: The Guardian has a Lonergan poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith which is raising a few eyebrows by showing his Liberal National Party opponent Bill Glasson leading 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). However, it’s well worth pointing out that Lonergan’s own blog reprints an article from Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation which suggests we “trust the national polls much more than the marginal seat polls because the national polls have a good track record at predicting elections, while the robopolls are fairly new”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,072 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns”

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  1. I would take the severity of these results with a grain of salt, what with some of the polling included in this being nearly two weeks old already. Recent Liberal gaffes and performances should draw interest to the coming polling, not polling this “old”.

    Still, it’s nice to know where the swings are happening – and I think on this measure, these tables have something to impart.

  2. I’m convinced that Abbotts “does he ever shut up” was a planed drop in lastnight that would steal air time on all the news reports..
    Abbott is really going after the JWH battlers again.

  5. you all really missed something if you never looked at the courier mail website ,yesterday
    had never looked at newltd site before and I never will again.

    I remember the courier mail rather fondly from having lived in qld, years ago,

    it really turned me off anything newsltd for the rest of my life

    so I am not blogging here any more the heading of anything newltd makes me feel quite unwell.
    we will this election
    people have enough the last straw is abbott trying to dip in our superannuation
    my husband started work at 15
    .5o years of paying into a fund being cps person we where privileged to able to get a head start with our super being an enterprising young man he decided to part with a quarter of his fortnightly pay at that time around 3000 a year this was some 6 years before i appeared on the scene and put the extra in to supper.

    over the years we highs and lows re finances,but he kept paying the extra he had always done, giving up smoking at
    35 to keep the extra supper payment intact.

    then came our JWH who sold off Telstra so with time found himself redundant, thank goodness we had been prudent and had extra super this was after 34 years of work
    wisely invested, but needed to be spent.
    not all of course,

    found another position with less pay but very contented we again embarked on supper in another employment area.
    decided even though we still had one child at uni to increase the extra payment, then later came the salary sacrifice, which he took the opportunity and we put more away for the day of retirement that at that time still felt years away,
    then in one day was it 2007 over night we lost thousands as many did in our age group and never able to recover that amount ever. but soldier on we did and then reached the day of retirement.
    now what’s left of invested super. along with good pension from the LABOR GOV, we can live a good life and our children do not have to worry about us,, that was different for the our parents gen, who got to the pension and where in shock the liberals idea of pension is some crumbs at budget time,, we are last on the list by liberals.

    now along come tony abbott and joe hockey who love , it seems mixing with high society and social type woman from what seems to outsiders looking in the posh side of Sydney
    seen at the launch of his PPL for rich woman that’s how it looked in the pictures we saw

    Now he tells us he needs some of our supper to give to these woman to stay at home with their babies and mostly likely nannies.

    we decided to have children not even thinking about how we would pay for anything associated with this, just wanted a family those days in the cps you left never to return, this was just before Mr Whitlam, ( god bless him came on the scene}
    so i saved very hard the few months i remained at my work to buy baby clothes i remember putting aside 6 doz nappies and baby blanket singlet and nighties ect and paying 5 dollars a pay off.
    we also had a bassinet on lay by, ect,

    so i left work to care for our new little one , so excited to have this happening to our life together what a blessing.

    so now its pay woman to have babies even the labor party has a scheme well is very modest compared to tonys wants for rich woman , THE LABOR PPL very well designed at very low price to the taxpayer.

    SO tony and Joe this is the the history of our supper what we have left we want to keep in tact, we prefer to pay for our own funerals and bills for the years we have left.

    SO no you are not getting one cent for your rich scheme for paying your rich liberal friends to take our money for themselves
    because when u think about it that’s exactly what you have in mind.
    and you both feel no shame, also this would take many thousand off the super of people waiting for their turn for retirement , we don’t have travel gold cards like you when u retire, we live off what we have saved
    and the good pension from the alp that has only happened since kev became pM thank you so much labor
    for introducing in later years supper for every one
    thank you to for giving us the pensioner dignity, something people don’t have with liberals and pension.

    SO we will win this election as this is the last straw from tony abbott,
    tell your elederly friends what he and joe are up to even elderly friends in nursing homes and their own homes,
    the afflicted and the poor.

    i would recommend you read the last thread and the first post i think from sprocket
    who really says all i want to say.

    about.??
    o if u look at the courier mail web site put sunglasses on

  7. poor old newspool they have no idea most young people in that age group don’t have land lines share houses and in some cases share mobile phones

    is it the last of the dynasours?

  8. The credits companies accrue when they pay their tax, go into an imputation account which can be distributed to shareholders. Shareholders then can claim these credits in their tax returns.

    This is based on the principle of “no double taxation” – the earnings of the company have been taxed already, so it is unfair to tax the distributed after tax profits to shareholders again – hence the imputation credits. Imputation credits are cash in the hand for the shares.

    But a levy is not a tax, so does not accrue the credit.

    [The Coalition’s scheme differs from that of the Greens. It offers high-income earners up to $75,000; the Greens cut it off at $50,000. The Coalition would start a year later, limit the total payments to both parents to 26 weeks – and would not repay the levy in dividend imputation credits to shareholders.
    This riled shareholder activists on Wednesday, after the budget office said allowing shareholders to claim back the levy through dividend imputation would cost $1.6 billion in the first three years.
    A Labor spokesman said the Coalition’s plan means shareholders would be taxed on company profits which have already been taxed.
    ”The ‘double tax’ will hit retirees the hardest, forcing them to pay tax on dividends earned on the shares they use as income,” he said. ”It is a massive hit to the cost of living for older Australians.”
    But Opposition Leader Tony Abbott rejected the criticism. He said imputation credits would fall, not because of the levy, but because the Coalition would cut the company tax rate to 28.5 per cent. That means companies will pay less company tax, which means fewer imputation credits for tax paid get passed on to shareholders.
    ”Levies don’t attract franking credits, that is just a standard rule,” Mr Abbott said.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/costing-reveals-mothers-will-pay-20130821-2sbmk.html#ixzz2cdeaNFnV

  9. [Funny how Newspoll has Tony ahead in the 18-34 age group, no other poll does.]
    I have to agree, I find that very hard to believe. As I have said beore there are a few graduates at my workplace in that age group. None seem to like Abbott, even those who clearly do not like Labor. (I do not know why but a few expressed a fondness for Howard, perhaps mimicking their parents.)

  10. My say

    Well said, the attack on worker super threatened by the Liberals to fund their payouts to the wealthy is appalling under any conception of social justice. Rudd did well to attack Abbott on this last night. He should be attacked.

    The rules on super do need to be tightened up for the rich. It is a huge tax dodge for them. However super for average earners is a critical part of their and national savings. Labor has consistently been the party to create and protect it. Labor has credibility on super as an issue. Rudd should go hard on this one.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Hartcher’s attempt to psychoanalyse the leaders after the debate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/abbott-still-in-the-box-seat-while-rudd-becomes-mr-negative-20130821-2sbus.html
    Not a good day for Ron Medich.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/hitmen-rat-poison-gun-buys-and-maccas-its-just-another-day-in-court-20130821-2sbmy.html
    Tim Colebatch on PPL costings.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/costing-reveals-mothers-will-pay-20130821-2sbmk.html
    Michael Gordon gives Rudd a win on points.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/neither-landed-the-knockout-blow-but-kevin-rudd-won-on-points-20130821-2sbt2.html
    Rudd intends to push Big Tobacco right out of poloitics if he wins.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/rudd-pledges-to-stub-out-big-tobaccos-political-push-20130821-2sbsx.html
    Don’t you just LOVE what religion does to some people!
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/adelaide-mosque-preacher-sheikh-sharif-hussein-directs-fury-at-at-buddhists-hindus-howard-and-obama/story-fni6uo1m-1226701605335
    A bit like climate change?
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/government-stance-on-firefighter-cancer-risk-insulting-20130821-2sae6.html
    The Essdendon/Hird/Dimitriou stoush will call for much popcorn.
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/james-hird-to-sue-over-afl-ambush-20130821-2sbrw.html

  12. Section 2 . . .

    Alan Moir really give it to Pru Goward.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    David Pope is ON FIRE!
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    A beauty from David Rowe.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
    Ron Tandberg on Abbott’s tax policies.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  13. http://truthinmediaresourcecentre.wordpress.com/2013/08/20/bias-in-the-canberra-press-gallery/
    Barry Tucker:

    [I have worked in a few Press Galleries (PG) and I can say it is a dynamic and sometimes intimidating environment. The long-term journalists in the PG see themselves as players in the political game, believing they can call shots, influence politicians and set the theme of the day for the junior journalists to follow. If you are young, ambitious and arrogant you may try to ignore them — at your peril. The consequences are that you will find yourself on the outer, given the cold shoulder, ridiculed, criticised and left out of the loop. Stories will break and you will not be told about them. At the same time it will be made clear to you that you must pass on anything that you hear because “we are all one happy family”. Workplace bullying for sure.

    It is through the practices above that senior PG journalists set the theme of the day, focus the interest of other journalists, divert attention from analysis of other policies, and so on. It leads to “following” and “the echo chamber” of journalists interviewing each other and confirming each other’s point of view. Journalists and vested interest commentators are more likely to disagree.]

  14. And from the Land of the Free –

    Some cartoons on the “war on drugs”.
    http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/08/21/cartoons-of-the-day-war-on-drugs/
    Religion and Tennessee – a rich mix!
    http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/david/tennessee-church-bans-family-after-daughter-
    Is this what Abbott means by productivity and flexibility?
    http://occupyamerica.crooksandliars.com/diane-sweet/bank-america-intern-dies-london-after-
    FoxNews is just SO grubby!
    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/08/21/1232811/-Fox-Friends-unveil-the-next-Obamacare-lie

  18. Rudd considers himself a Labor uniter… despite being a Labor leaker, Labor backstabber, Labor divider and Labor infighter.

  19. This Andrew Bolt piece is hilarious

    [I TOOK a dip in Twitter this week, and understand even better how Labor got flushed away in a sewer of hate.

    How could Labor – and many journalists – disastrously mistake Twitter for the real world?

    On Tuesday I was persuaded by an editor to go on ScribbleLIVE to answer questions sent by readers through Twitter and Facebook.

    This news electrified the Twittersphere. For hours the topic trended as Leftists, many anonymous, competed to ask me – the Great Satan of Conservatism – the worst, silliest or most abusive questions on the #askbolt hashtag.]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/labor-lost-in-twitter-sewer/story-fni0ffxg-1226701595896

  20. Labor has won this week easily, the coalition supporters only hope is the hypothetical polls which only newsltd has abbott in front.

  22. The only news in Melbourne town is the war between James Hird Coach of the Essendon FC and Andrew Demetriou CEO of the AFL. Front page of the Herald Sun has a picture of them facing off with the words. IT’S WAR

  23. sprocket

    Do we gather that Bolt doesn’t have a sense of humour? Well, yes we do, when the humour is directed at him. Some of the #askbolt question were both clever and funny.

  25. At some stage Essendon will realise for reasons, fair or unfair, that Hird is perceived, fairly or unfairly, as damaged goods and will cut him loose for its long term interest.

  28. The Professor prequel…

    [MINING magnate Clive Palmer is set to drop a political bombshell on Mal Brough, alleging the LNP candidate asked the billionaire for money to fund the failed sexual harassment case against Mr Brough’s rival Peter Slipper.

    Mr Palmer has called a press conference for this morning in Brisbane to detail allegations against Mr Brough.

    But the Daily understands he will clear Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey, despite claims from Mr Slipper that Mr Hockey was also involved.

    The Daily understands Mr Palmer will, for the first time, allege Mr Brough directly approached him for funding for the James Ashby case during a meeting at the Palmer Coolum Resort.

    Mr Hockey was on holidays at the resort at the time.

    Mr Brough last night rejected outright approaching Mr Palmer for money.

    However, he did confirm he had lunch with both Mr Palmer and Mr Hockey.

    And he said the James Ashby case may have been discussed.

    “I never asked him for any money whatsoever,” Mr Brough said.

    He said he only went to the resort to catch up with Mr Hockey during his Coast holiday.

    Mr Brough has come under fire from a judge for his role in helping Mr Ashby, a former staffer with Mr Slipper, over claims the former Speaker sexually harassed him through hundreds of lewd text message]

    http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/clive-takes-on-mal-over-ashby-cash/1993757/

  29. poroti

    Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 7:32 am | Permalink

    castle

    Hilarious. Just like he regards himself a feminist because he has daughters.
    ——————————————————–

    or Queenslander because he was in Brisbane

  31. It is hilarious for the msm and Abbott to complain about Rudd being negative
    For goodness sake. We are still getting Abbott’s negative spiel about the carbon tax.
    Are these people for frickin real

  32. lizzie

    Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 7:56 am | Permalink

    Courier Mail front page
    http://t.co/V9CCmvVmGc
    “Does this guy ever shut up?”
    —————————————————-

    Certainly says a lot about the journalists, editors etc when that is all they took from the debate to use as a headline

  37. Excerpts from Justice Rares findings;

    Libs up to their ‘eyeballs” in misusing the legal system

    have reached the firm conclusion that Mr Ashby’s predominant purpose for bringing these proceedings was to pursue a political attack against Mr Slipper

    The originating application was used by Mr Ashby for the predominant purpose of causing significant public, reputation and political damage to Mr Slipper.

    the evidence established that Mr Ashby acted in combination with Ms Doane and Mr Brough when commencing the proceedings in order to advance the interests of the LNP and Mr Brough. Mr Ashby and Ms Doane set out to use the proceedings as part of their means to enhance or promote their prospects of advancement or preferment by the LNP, including by using Mr Brough to assist them in doing so.

  40. Interesting – if a levy is not a tax and an ETS in its fixed price phase is a kind of levy (in this case on pollution) then does this constitute an admission by the LNP that our pricing package was not a carbon tax?

  41. Liberal Governments in Victoria and Queensland have been doing it, now the Liberals in WA are setting about doing it.

    “Public schools are set to close or amalgamate within four years but the Barnett Government has refused to detail which schools are set for the chop.”

    This is what the Liberals really think of public education.

    They close public schools while increasing Government handouts to private schools

  43. Shame Rudd didn’t remind Queenslanders at campaigned the debate that Abbott campaigned against the levy to assist them after the floods but is campaigning a levy for a gold plated PPL.

    Better a gold plated PPL than a gold plated Queensland

  45. AA

    Agreed. Rudd should have said something about the 12 month flood levy of 0.05% to assist the rebuilding of Qld, was rejected by the coalition.

  46. [The $5 million headline?]

    Yes, clearly coordinated, so the voters Abbott and Murdoch have contempt for can have something shiny to play with, rather than focus on the issues or the obviously weak candidate the LNP have produced as leader.

  48. Morning All

    Greens on 17% in Victoria – gotta love it 🙂

    I thought Kevin won well last night – should fire the troops up a bit.

    Looking forward to seeing what Clive has to say today

    Hird must stand down while he tries to clear his name, the Bombers can’t beat the AFL

    MegaPPL is hurting the Liberals, will they stick solid or make some changes before election day??? I hope I got my sums right

    P A ‏@tnsprofpunter 42m

    Rupert decides to come back to Oz, marries News Limited poppet, has child – pockets $5,769.23 of #megappl #auspol #ausvotes as HIS share

  49. confessions

    From previous experience, MacTiernan does read and reply to emails. Perhaps you could drop her a line re making hay of Barnett’s cuts

  50. [The federal coalition’s paid parental leave scheme will deliver its greatest benefit to inner-city Liberal-held seats, the Labor government says.

    Nationals party members have voiced reservations about the scheme because they fear it favours city women over country women.

    A Labor analysis released on Thursday shows women in big cities will receive almost four in every five dollars under the scheme.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/18602144/abbott-parental-leave-benefits-city-mums/

    No wonder he launched it (again!) in Higgins and not in Longman.

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