Newspoll breakdowns

Aggregated results from the last two weeks show that Labor’s recent weakness in Newspoll has been driven by dire results from New South Wales.

Today’s Australian brings state and demographic breakdowns from the combined results of the Newspoll surveys of August 9-11 and August 16-18, which respectively came in at 52-48 and 54-46 in favour of the Coalition. The overall sample is 2826 respondents, with sample sizes for each state ranging from 458 to 659. The narrowness of the range suggests the super-sized sample in this week’s poll was used to boost the numbers from the smaller states, by way of reducing the margins of error on today’s state breakdowns, the largest of which is 4.6%. The salient points:

• New South Wales looks to have done the damage in Labor’s weak ratings of late, the published two-party preferred coming in at 57-43. As you can see from the sidebar, this is a fair bit worse for Labor than the published and unpublished state-level numbers from other pollsters which have been used to determine the current BludgerTrack results.

• Victoria on the hand swings heavily the other way, a 54-46 lead for Labor suggesting only a swing to the Coalition of a little over 1%. This includes a 17% result for the Greens which most would consider a bit hard to credit, given the 12.7% result from 2010 and the general trend of the party’s fortunes.

• The numbers show Labor looking alive in all-important Queensland, a 53-47 lead to the Liberal National Party implying a swing to Labor of around 2%.

• The Western Australian results on the other hand paint a very different picture from one that has long seemed overly favourable to Labor in BludgerTrack. The two-party result is 59-41, implying a swing to the Coalition of around 2.5% off an already very high base. It should be noted though that it’s around here that the margins of error start to push north of 4%.

• A 54-46 lead to the Coalition in South Australia is in line with talk that Labor should be concerned about Hindmarsh and perhaps one or two other seats in the state, suggesting as it does a swing of about 7%.

• Personal ratings don’t show a huge amount of interstate variation for Kevin Rudd, with Victoria being effectively even with his home state for his best net approval rating. His approval rating is higher among men (39%) than women (35%).

• Tony Abbott on the other hand rates considerably lower in Victoria (a net approval of minus 20%) than in New South Wales and Queensland (minus 5%).

I’ll be running all that through the BludgerTrack updatermator later today. You can view the full tables on voting intention here. You can also view aggregated state breakdowns for Essential Research here if you’re a Crikey subscriber, as you should be.

UPDATE: The Guardian has a Lonergan poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith which is raising a few eyebrows by showing his Liberal National Party opponent Bill Glasson leading 52-48, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). However, it’s well worth pointing out that Lonergan’s own blog reprints an article from Adrian Beaumont at The Conversation which suggests we “trust the national polls much more than the marginal seat polls because the national polls have a good track record at predicting elections, while the robopolls are fairly new”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,072 comments on “Newspoll breakdowns”

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  1. This is how the Liberals manage Health.

    The financial ramifications of the delays to the Fiona Stanley Hospital remain a mystery to the Government, which still does not know its liability for contracting Serco to run the facility before it becomes fully operational.

    The global services conglomerate is contracted to run FSH from April 1 next year, but complex technology and workforce planning issues have delayed the full operation of the hospital until April 2015.

    Serco and G4S were accused of overcharging the British Government £50 million for services.

    Health is so important the Govt has no idea what its going to cost and have allowed the opening of the hospital to be delayed.

  2. victoria
    [The only news in Melbourne town is the war between James Hird Coach of the Essendon FC and Andrew Demetriou CEO of the AFL.]

    Politics is completely overwhelmed by the Essendon situation. Some Vic Labor seats are in trouble and it will be harder to catch up if people are distracted by this.

  3. [Shame Rudd didn’t remind Queenslanders at campaigned the debate that Abbott campaigned against the levy to assist them after the floods but is campaigning a levy for a gold plated PPL.]

    That attack line is so bleeding obvious that I too am surprised that it hasn’t been used. I hope that it is being saved for maximum impact at the Brisbane campaign launch.

  4. Interesting – if a levy is not a tax and an ETS in its fixed price phase is a kind of levy (in this case on pollution) then does this constitute an admission by the LNP that our pricing package was not a carbon tax?

    No. It’s a tax if it’s imposed by a Labor Government but not a tax if imposed by a Coalition government.

  5. triton:

    Watson did good last night. The thing is he needs this century not to be his one in 50 (or whatever it was) of his next innings!

  6. [#Newspoll August QLD Federal Primary Votes: ALP 37 (+8 from Apr-Jun) L/NP 46 (0) GRN 8 (0) #ausvotes]

    Massive. Beattie will take Forde, and the ALP several other LNP seats. So much for ‘odds’ – maybe try tea leaves.

    More effort in NSW evidently required though.

  7. Dear bludgers,

    Re : PPL

    I noticed talk about franking credits and coalition being incompetent here. I come from a neutral pos here, but I feel this www needs balancing out as it seems exclusively left now. So I make some observations dear friends. To further the debate for all …

    When the coalition was voted in, in 1996 the asx stock market was about 2,150 points. When the coalition was voted out in 2007 it had increased to about 6,600 points. These figures are rough off historical charts for the ASX All Ordinaries Index Chart. That is an about 4,450 point increase. Or an increase of 207 % or 2.07 x increase.

    When the ALP was voted in, in 2007 the same ASX stock market was about 6,600 points. Now in 2013 it is 5,090 points. That is a drop of about 1,510 points. Or a reduction of -22.8 % or a x -.228 decline.

    Whilst I love low interest rates not all do. Self funded retirees and investors and all in ways benefit from higher interest rates. As Wayne Swan said when interest rates go too low like below 4% they have reached emergency level. They are at extreme emergency levels now too. This low is a sign of real trouble.

    Not just self funded retirees will be better off under a coalition govt, but all investors and shareholders. With stable strong consistent interest rates and strong growth in shares and many investments. Those that rely on interest rates for retirement and investments would prefer a rate of 6 % instead of 4 % I think. The strong growth in shares is good too, along with strong growth in dividends and franked dividends. And we all of us rely on these good returns to increase our superannuation accounts.

    Whenever a new govt is elected it creates an immediate boom in the stock market. This is especially true of the coalition I heard dear friends.

    Economically we are much better off under a coalition I think, as these figures are not oddities or rarities at all. The last coalition did not have much benefit from the mining boom either. I have done some checking and most resources prices started to take off near the end of the last coalition govt. And in a resources boom it takes many years to get the full benefits of the boom as miners set up infrastructure and gear up to take advantage of the boom. Prices whilst off there extreme highs now are still extraordinarily high historically speaking. You can check them yourselves online free. The ALP have had this unprecedented mining boom and still no real tangible economic benefit as it should be. They have had 6 yrs of absolute boom. the GFC finished 4 1/2 yrs ago too and we were much more immune to it than maybe all other countries. Makes me think – this, the coalition may not be so bad after all, having researched this.

    We all benefit massively economically from strong economic performance like this IMO. I am just being honest too. Taking a fair and balanced and impartial look all by myself. Thought you may like to know dear friends.

    cheers

    John

  8. Those newspoll state breaksowsn make it very plain that the ALP has staged a primary vote recovery since Rudd, in every state bar VIC (where it has stayed the same, but LNP vote has dropped, GRNs up).

  9. [No. It’s a tax if it’s imposed by a Labor Government but not a tax if imposed by a Coalition government.]

    Rudd has already admitted endlessly that the Carbon Tax is a Carbon Tax.

    Are Labor supporters still wanking themselves with the “Fixed Carbon Price” weasel words rubbish despite this reality?

  10. How about we have an online poll on whether Australians want a PM who doesn’t know when to shut up.

    Or is Rudd right up there with Rob Oakeshott in the windbag stakes?

    Come on journos … latch onto this one!

  11. triton

    [Right, confessions. I would never have guessed that Watson could be a no. 3, though he did play it more like a no. 7.]

    That’s because the pitch was batter-friendly and the first and second change bowlers were soft.

  12. Using the term ‘carbon tax’ is not an admission that it is a “carbon tax” its using simple language so that Liberals understand there is a price on carbon.

    Rudd is using the KISS principle for the benefit of Liberals.

  13. SeanTisme

    [Are Labor supporters {LNP spruikers} still wanking themselves {trolling} with the “Fixed Carbon Price” weasel words rubbish {carbon “tax” meme} despite this reality {having admitted in writing in October 2009 that even the fixed price phase was a trading scheme that would be inferior to “a simple carbon tax” and now showing that even a levy is really not the same as a tax for company purposes}?]

    There you go Sean. It took a bit of editing but I finally tidied up your post to make it conform to observable reality. Regrettably, that probably renders it illegible to you now.

  14. Davo

    [How about we have an online poll on whether Australians want a PM who doesn’t know when to shut up.]

    How about we have a poll on whether Australians want to find out now or later whether there is any integrity to LNP “solutions” and whether even the LNP can believe them?

  15. Triton

    [Fran, yes, very friendly pitch conditions and a couple of juicy debutante bowlers to feast on.]

    Really, he should have made sure he was not out at stumps so that he could have pressed on today.

  16. John
    [When the coalition was voted in, in 1996 the asx stock market was about 2,150 points. When the coalition was voted out in 2007 it had increased to about 6,600 points. These figures are rough off historical charts for the ASX All Ordinaries Index Chart. That is an about 4,450 point increase. Or an increase of 207 % or 2.07 x increase.

    When the ALP was voted in, in 2007 the same ASX stock market was about 6,600 points. Now in 2013 it is 5,090 points. That is a drop of about 1,510 points. Or a reduction of -22.8 % or a x -.228 decline. ]

    Are you seriously implying that this proves the economy does better under the coalition, as though this is an apples v. apples comparison?

    [As Wayne Swan said when interest rates go too low like below 4% they have reached emergency level. They are at extreme emergency levels now too. This low is a sign of real trouble. ]

    No, it’s a sign the banks haven’t been passing on the RBA reductions, so the RBA has to cut further. As the RBA says, it’s really only the banks’ rates that matter, not the RBA rate.

  17. Neil Mitchell’s take on last night’s debate was in one respect very surprising and in another totally unsurprising.

    The surprise was that he called Rudd the winner.

    His unsurprising comment was that Tony Abbott looked Prime Ministerial. I guess these things are very much in the eye of the beholder. I haven’t seen the debate yet (I have it taped) but I doubt that I could ever see Abbott as Prime Ministerial. Whenever he speaks I see the body language and hear the words of a self confessed liar, who is trying once again to hoodwink the Australian people. I also see a small minded individual who still hasn’t any idea what to say when he is asked what is his vision is for Australia’s future. Frankly he is not fit to be a Prime Minister’s bootlace.

  18. [sprocket_ @28 – so it would appear that either Clive Palmer or Mal Brough is lying.]

    No there is a third and more likely alternative. They are both telling porkies.

  19. I wonder if they scaled the result, if each state are polled 600 people and NSW has a greater population, do they scale the result based on % of population

  20. triton
    Posted Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 9:22 am | PERMALINK
    Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke 1m
    (better link) Uh oh. If this blows up this could kill any momentum the Govt was gaining: http://latika.me/16eiHiX #Ausvotes

    ———–

    How is that going to kill any momentum

    i could get on latika’s facebook page and write an essay about how Abbott was awful , would latika post a link to that?

  21. John

    When the coalition was voted in, in 1996 the asx stock market was about 2,150 points. When the coalition was voted out in 2007 it had increased to about 6,600 points. These figures are rough off historical charts for the ASX All Ordinaries Index Chart. That is an about 4,450 point increase. Or an increase of 207 % or 2.07 x increase.

    When the ALP was voted in, in 2007 the same ASX stock market was about 6,600 points. Now in 2013 it is 5,090 points. That is a drop of about 1,510 points. Or a reduction of -22.8 % or a x -.228 decline.
    ———————————————————-

    To make any fair and honest comparison using the stock market it would need to be compared as to where it sat in comparison the other stock markets in the world.

    This comparison of numbers does not factor the GFC, remember that? It was just a ‘little’ world wide melt down that saw a lot of countries go into recession and many major developed countries still struggling to recover.

  22. It sounds like Stewardess pt 2, Rosemour. It doesn’t matter what he did but what she says. To come out publicly like that she is either a coalition stooge or Rudd treated her pretty badly. Let’s hope (or maybe not?) there were other witnesses present.

  23. guytur no surprise

    the pro coalition media has ot spread propaganda , abbott had a bad week

    doesnt the polling weekend starts today

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